Why we will win the SB

[bradmahn]

The Education of a Coach has a great section on how Bill devised his game plan to beat the Bills in the 1990 Super Bowl, where he actually had to convince his defense to allow Thurman Thomas to get some yards on the ground, tricking the Bills into doing what they didn't really want to do, and staying away from doing what Bill didn't want them to do. It was a great example of manipulation, and a great example of your logic, AJ.

 

[PatsSteve1]

The Patriots will win is they play better and score more points than the Colts. Whatever's happened in the past, IMO and BB's, will have no bearing on the outcome of Sunday's game.

"Each week in the NFL is its own week. The league is so competitive that nothing about the week before counts very much." - Bill Belichick

 

[Brownfan80]

Andy good to see you posting again, Mr. NeverAroundAnymore.

It's the middle of the night, so I can't read that whole post and respond, but I'll make sure to do that tomorrow.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Good post Andy...

Every week some of us predict how the game will be won.

I think many times some of us are right except the team didn't need
to use that strategy due to the other teams strategy change.

The game planning on this team has reached the point where there really is no general game plan but rather 5-6 points to obtain an advantage on like a flow chart.... the game plan is like a flow chart where we have every flow covered if need be ... the play chart has plays to cover every flow needed to counter ... just like Andy points out...a small advantage is all that is needed.

I have never in my adult football life ever watched a team call so many DUMMY plays on offense and defense. We far and away call the most dummy plays to obtain advantage on those marginal areas you speak of.

Belichick says it every week ... we only need to make 1 more play than the other team .... and he coaches just like that ... patiently waiting for the 5 or 6 times a game we make that 1 more play.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

Good post Andy...

Every week some of us predict how the game will be won.

I think many times some of us are right except the team didn't need
to use that strategy due to the other teams strategy change.

The game planning on this team has reached the point where there really is no general game plan but rather 5-6 points to obtain an advantage on like a flow chart.... the game plan is like a flow chart where we have every flow covered if need be ... the play chart has plays to cover every flow needed to counter ... just like Andy points out...a small advantage is all that is needed.

I have never in my adult football life ever watched a team call so many DUMMY plays on offense and defense. We far and away call the most dummy plays to obtain advantage on those marginal areas you speak of.

Belichick says it every week ... we only need to make 1 more play than the other team .... and he coaches just like that ... patiently waiting for the 5 or 6 times a game we make that 1 more play.

And/or cash in on the other team's bad clock management, which I don't remember the Patriots ever doing (managing the clock poorly) all the way back to the snow bowl and SB 36 final drive. San Diego got the ball with 1:05, or was it 1:10 left, and ran out of time! That's inexcusable if you have a QB that can throw the ball at least 30 yards. They were switching receivers from one side to the other, burning up time and I was loving every minute of it.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Been re-reading our Sun-Tzu, have we?

Very good post, Andy. Been missing you around here...

 

[frankiesfly]

"If you look at this years Pats team, especially over the last 2 months or so, no team can beat us because they destroy us in what they are strong at. We can exploit any weakness they have and win because of it.
Offensively, we can win by any method, any exploit whatever the weaknesses are, but more importantly, hold our own against their strength.
Defensively, we will control their strength and totally shut down their weakness or expose it (ie exposing bad OLs so strong QBs or RBs do not do well)"


I dont understand this paragraph you wrote (from above). I dont think half your thread even makes sense. If over the past two months we were able to win because teams destroy us at what they were strong at, then why do you say in the same paragraph" more importantly hold our own against there strength." are you all of a sudden thinking we will stop the Colts at what they are strong at this week? Then you would be predicting a loss.

 

[JackPMiller]

What if the Saints win it all? I am not saying they will get there, but there is that possibility. I did have the Pats going to the big show, but losing to Carolina before the season started, and I look lke an idiot for that pick of the Panthers. But as someone mentioned from the Herd boards, this Saints team has the feel similar to the Pats of the 2001-2002 season. The red, white and blue, and coming off of 9-11. The Saints, granted it has been a longer wait, but still, it feels like the Katrina thing. But I know some may have that feeling in there somewhere, if the Saints can shock the Bears in Chi-Town.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

I remember Andy posting something similar way back in 2004 right before we played the Colts in the divisional. He was right then, and I believe he's right now. Either way, the guy knows his stuff, even if you don't agree with him all the time. Excellent post.

 

[Seneschal2]

The Colt D has looked good lately because the 2 playoff opponents have been determined to run, and exploit the weakness. THE WEAKNESS IS STILL THERE. However, it wasn't exploited because they were allowed to overplay the run. The Colt pass D is not exactly good, but when you run into a weak run D that overcommits to it, you throw into a pass D that has gotten to a down and distance to not worry about the run.

Dungy confirms your point by stating they were able to gameplan defensively vs their 2 playoff opponents because:

I think the other thing that benefits us is sometimes when you get in the playoffs and you’re playing better teams, they have a tendency to do what they do a little bit more. You’re more certain of what you’re going to get.

What we WILL do is throw enough to keep the Colts form selling out against the run, and expose that weakness and gash them.

New England’s a little bit different. The (Patriots) change up and have different game plans. They go to Minnesota and it’s five wide (receivers) and no huddle and the next game it might be two tight ends because they think they can run the ball.

But most of the time when you’re playing good teams they’re pretty set on what they do. It gives you a chance to zero in on it. That always helps.

---

So if the improved Colts defense the last 2 games is due to gameplanning vs an opponent who refused to alter their offense, it's entirely possible that this "improved" defense will not be visible vs an opponent who really has no set offense.

 

[richpats]

By the way, THIS is where the BB PIOSTSEASON game planning and its difference fron regular season comes in. My expectation is that Manning will be 'taking what we give him' for a good part of the day. However, in certain circumstances, and especially late he will be taking what HE THINKS we are giving him, and we will have devised a game plan that disguises what we are giving him, and the result will be the typically Pats D vs Manning playoff results.
The difference between regular season and post season game planning is significant. In the regular season you are game planning at least in part to have continuity, improve areas, and focus on the long term development of the team. In the post season you are gameplanning solely to win the game.
BB will utilize schemes that Manning has not seen, that will be specificly designed to win this game, as opposed to also considering continuity, deveolpment, the big picture, and getting ready for the playoffs. While it may be somewhat subtle, it is proven. The BB D has had games in the regular seasons where it did not use creative schemes designed to neutralize a player, and good players have good games. I do not EVER remember a good offensive player having a career day and 'carrying' a team vs BB in the playoffs. In fact in some cases those good players have had good days, but in the end it was in spite of the overall offense, and did not translate to the scoreboard, that is, what the THOUGHT we were giving them was what we WANTED to give them, and it wasn't enough.

Probably one of the best explanations of Belichick's tendency to dominate teams he struggled against early on. I do believe that opposing teams "sell-out" in the regular season to beat NE as if it were the playoffs. Even in the Denver loss last year, the Broncos' offense was crap whereas in the reg season it was explosive.

It's more reasonable to believe that BB focuses more on improvement, continuity and development rather than simply "saving" plays or "lying down" in games. His teams are significantly better in the playoffs than at midseason. Think we could have beaten SD in say, Week 9? Little chance IMO.

Looking at the Colts' performance against the Pats in the 03 and 04 regular seasons compared to the playoffs also helps support your explanation. NE barely held on in '03 and Indy racked up 34 points. In the '04 opener, Indy moved the ball easily and was a couple of red-zone mistakes away from winning. In the playoffs those years it was a 20-point reduction in their offense (well, thanks in part to some nasty elements )

I expect the Colts to put up at least 20 points Sunday but the complexion of the game will be much different than the last 2 meetings.

 

[arrellbee]

Thanks Andy. Great to have the perspectives layed out so clearly.

It's interesting to see how few, if any, GMs and Coaches understand the effectiveness of Belichick's approach. Although it's pretty implicit in what you say, to focus on it specifically: Belichick is so pragmatic, patient, and methodical and doesn't break from that approach and try to 'quick fix' the team no matter what current resources are lost to injury or free agency.

I'll also reemphasize the comments about Belichick's teams getting more effective as the year goes on. If you observe and listen carefully, you see the methodical building from training camp all the way thru to the superbowl. As he has stated any number of times, he doesn't know what the team is all about until at least 5 or 6 week into the season or longer. One would assume from that that it takes that much time for all of the elements of his methodical installation of plays and practice to begin to come to fruition. In my opinion, that's why you see the Patriots at a disadvantage early in the season because they are going up against teams that are built on the play of individualistic players. These players are at their most energetic and strongest level at the beginning of the season. Teams built on this model do not get particularly better as the season goes on - in fact if their key contributors get injured or wear down, they actually lose effectivess. Meanwhile Belichick's scheme methodology is being executed better and better and his deliberate rotation of players during games has also kept a little more freshness for the end of the season. I'm not sure many fans take the time to be aware of just how much rotation goes on.

Extending your theme about individual players, it is fascinating to see how almost all teams fail to understand that and come feeding time in the spring go into a frenzy to add the miracle player or two at exorbitant dollars thinking the one or two players will 'quick fix' their shortcomings. As you point out so well, it does them little good if they consequently shortchange the depth of the roster and fail to address their weakest points. A few teams get it - maybe the Steelers are one of the best examples (? would be interested in observations about that). I was surprised to see the Eagles bite on T.O. I thought they were one of the teams that understood better than others. And Holgrem going after Branch - seemed out of character for him but I just may not understand his history as well as I should.

I like the chances for the Patriots very much. I just hold my breath hoping that the few breaks that a team always needs to win through to the superbowl fall our way.

Thanks again for great reading and perspectives.

 

[Patfandango]

quote
The fact of the matter is when any offense and defense line up against each other the result has an awful lot less to do with the 2 best guys on either side of the ball than it does to do with the 2 worst guys on either side of the ball.
Ultimately our championships are not born by winning plays because the best 2-3 guys we have on the field for a play outplay their best 2-3, but because our WORST 2-3 far outplayed their worst 2-3.

Great Post Andy! Your quoted point is for me the key to the Patriots and certainly not appreciated by the media talking heads. It makes so much sense and is the secret behind winning and staying under the salary cap. The marginal cost increase in players 4-53 is much less than players 1-3 per capita. I'm surprised that more teams don;t adopt this plan.

I fear balanced teams much more than ones with a few stars. I was certainly concerned about SD (who are very balanced) but not so much about Indy. If the stars align and their miracle run D stays intact and Manning has a stellar day, then we might be in trouble. Otherwise. I think we will win based on the mismatches in the worst 2-3 players on the field as you say.

 

[AzPatsFan]

"If you look at this years Pats team, especially over the last 2 months or so, no team can beat us because they destroy us in what they are strong at. We can exploit any weakness they have and win because of it.
Offensively, we can win by any method, any exploit whatever the weaknesses are, but more importantly, hold our own against their strength.
Defensively, we will control their strength and totally shut down their weakness or expose it (ie exposing bad OLs so strong QBs or RBs do not do well)"


I don't understand this paragraph you wrote (from above). I dont think half your thread even makes sense. If over the past two months we were able to win because teams destroy us at what they were strong at, then why do you say in the same paragraph" more importantly hold our own against there strength." are you all of a sudden thinking we will stop the Colts at what they are strong at this week? Then you would be predicting a loss.

I understand exactly what AJ was saying. We are not poor at any position, unlike a lot of teams. Teams that have a dominant player or characteristic against a poor opposite, use that dominance to win. Against our fairly good abilities everywhere, and specifically where they are very good, the result is to minimize their best abilities to yield only fair success for them, or to neutralize them completely.

Then what do they do?

We are fairly good everywhere and fairly good at everything, but maybe not superb at any one thing. There isn't enough money to afford the athletes everywhere to be that very excellent. Bill doesn't even try to do it; he knows better.

But stupid teams keep trying to prove that the impossible is possible. They stockpile Superstars and wonder why the can't afford all the ones, they think they need to make a complete team. Somewhere they have a fairly big weakness, as a result.

So if something doesn't work for us, we metamorphose and try something else, since we are pretty good at most everything. Sooner or later we find a weakness that they have and exploit it to win.

 

[stcjones]

Andy, to play devil's advocate, if Troy doesn't strip McCree, we probably lose. What would you attribute the "loss" to?

Gr8est...to be fair.....If either (or actually should have been BOTH) of the other fumbles in that game that got overturned had gone our way.....we COULD have won by more......Can't go with shoulda, coulda, woulda's.....only with final outcomes......GO PATS!!!!

 

[stcjones]

Thanks Andy. Great to have the perspectives layed out so clearly.

It's interesting to see how few, if any, GMs and Coaches understand the effectiveness of Belichick's approach. Although it's pretty implicit in what you say, to focus on it specifically: Belichick is so pragmatic, patient, and methodical and doesn't break from that approach and try to 'quick fix' the team no matter what current resources are lost to injury or free agency.

I'll also reemphasize the comments about Belichick's teams getting more effective as the year goes on. If you observe and listen carefully, you see the methodical building from training camp all the way thru to the superbowl. As he has stated any number of times, he doesn't know what the team is all about until at least 5 or 6 week into the season or longer. One would assume from that that it takes that much time for all of the elements of his methodical installation of plays and practice to begin to come to fruition. In my opinion, that's why you see the Patriots at a disadvantage early in the season because they are going up against teams that are built on the play of individualistic players. These players are at their most energetic and strongest level at the beginning of the season. Teams built on this model do not get particularly better as the season goes on - in fact if their key contributors get injured or wear down, they actually lose effectivess. Meanwhile Belichick's scheme methodology is being executed better and better and his deliberate rotation of players during games has also kept a little more freshness for the end of the season. I'm not sure many fans take the time to be aware of just how much rotation goes on.

Extending your theme about individual players, it is fascinating to see how almost all teams fail to understand that and come feeding time in the spring go into a frenzy to add the miracle player or two at exorbitant dollars thinking the one or two players will 'quick fix' their shortcomings. As you point out so well, it does them little good if they consequently shortchange the depth of the roster and fail to address their weakest points. A few teams get it - maybe the Steelers are one of the best examples (? would be interested in observations about that). I was surprised to see the Eagles bite on T.O. I thought they were one of the teams that understood better than others. And Holgrem going after Branch - seemed out of character for him but I just may not understand his history as well as I should.

I like the chances for the Patriots very much. I just hold my breath hoping that the few breaks that a team always needs to win through to the superbowl fall our way.

Thanks again for great reading and perspectives.

Oh...the understand the Belichick genius alright.....BUT they are so BLINDLY JEALOUS of what he has achieved and how INCREDIBLE the guy is....they can't help themselves in trying to rip the Pats apart or BUILD up the other team........GO PATS!!!!!