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Why we will win the SB

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Jan 18, 2007.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I actually had these thoughts last week before the Charger game but didnt get the time to post them.

    I am expecting that we win the SB.
    This team has IMO the most important quality of the teams that won the first 3 rings. It has no liabilities. Now (actually last week) is the first time I've honestly been able to say that since SB XXXIX.
    Last year we had immediately and severe secondary problems. The BB D got beaten deep more last year than by my memory any 2 or maybe 3 other years combined, including his DC and Cleveland years. Of course we also started the year with ILB problems, and spent much of it with running game weakness because of injuries to Dillon and a lot of the OL.
    Quite simply, the players we were forced to play were liabilities in the roles they had to play, making the overall units liabilities.
    Early this year our receivers seemed to be a liability.
    ---Let me stop and explain what I mean by liability.
    A lack of a liability means this: We can neutralize the other teams strength, no matter what area it is in. We won't lose simply because we cannot control their strength. We win the battle, if only slightly, in all areas they are average. We dominate in any area they are weak.

    If you look at this years Pats team, especially over the last 2 months or so, no team can beat us because they destroy us in what they are strong at. We can exploit any weakness they have and win because of it.
    Offensively, we can win by any method, any exploit whatever the weaknesses are, but more importantly, hold our own against their strength.
    Defensively, we will control their strength and totally shut down their weakness or expose it (ie exposing bad OLs so strong QBs or RBs do not do well)

    Until recently our WR corps was potential the liability. It is very clear, IMO, that this unit is good enough that we can throw all day against a weak pass D and win, but also make enough play against a strong pass D to keep balance and allow us to exploit a run D weakness.

    When you look at this weeks game from this perspective, it seems easy to see how we will win.
    The Colt D has looked good lately because the 2 playoff opponents have been determined to run, and exploit the weakness. THE WEAKNESS IS STILL THERE. However, it wasn't exploited because they were allowed to overplay the run. The Colt pass D is not exactly good, but when you run into a weak run D that overcommits to it, you throw into a pass D that has gotten to a down and distance to not worry about the run. What we WILL do is throw enough to keep the Colts form selling out against the run, and expose that weakness and gash them.
    The most basic, and frighteningly overlooked offensive strategy is that if a team is weak in an area, you donot attack it at a point they can reinforce it, but you attack when it is vulnerable. Example: If a team has the worst corner in the NFL, coming out and throwing at him every time means the defense will give him help. Throwing at the worst corner with doubleteam help from a safety equals throwing at a good corner. You must design a gameplan that will force them to leave him in man coverage, then attack him. This is what we will do Sunday. DEPENDING on how the Colts start out defending us we will either jam the run down their throat (if they are playing 'honest') and gash them or throw a lot early to make them play honest THEN gash them.
    The passing game is the key to this win, but not in making plays, but in forcing them to play honest to set up a great running game. I expect a minimum of 200 rushing yards UNLESS the Colts refuse to come out of run defense and give us the pass. They can pick their poison as far as Im concerned.

    Defensively, this means that the Colt O will make plays. But there is nothing for them to exploit. We will have to give them something, and they will have to take what we give them. But, here is the key: We are able to CHOOSE what we give them. There is nothing we must do to cover a liability. We can blitz and be exposed ot the big play, but the Colts will not win because they are completing long passes all day. We can 'bend but dont break' and make them have 14 play drives. But they will not consistently be able to string 14 effective plays together.
    By the way, THIS is where the BB PIOSTSEASON game planning and its difference fron regular season comes in. My expectation is that Manning will be 'taking what we give him' for a good part of the day. However, in certain circumstances, and especially late he will be taking what HE THINKS we are giving him, and we will have devised a game plan that disguises what we are giving him, and the result will be the typically Pats D vs Manning playoff results.
    The difference between regular season and post season game planning is significant. In the regular season you are game planning at least in part to have continuity, improve areas, and focus on the long term development of the team. In the post season you are gameplanning solely to win the game.
    BB will utilize schemes that Manning has not seen, that will be specificly designed to win this game, as opposed to also considering continuity, deveolpment, the big picture, and getting ready for the playoffs. While it may be somewhat subtle, it is proven. The BB D has had games in the regular seasons where it did not use creative schemes designed to neutralize a player, and good players have good games. I do not EVER remember a good offensive player having a career day and 'carrying' a team vs BB in the playoffs. In fact in some cases those good players have had good days, but in the end it was in spite of the overall offense, and did not translate to the scoreboard, that is, what the THOUGHT we were giving them was what we WANTED to give them, and it wasn't enough.

    Right now this team has the most important characteristics that were present in 3 SB Champs, that was not present in 2002 and 2005 (and far from it in 2000).

    Final thought. It just cracks me up every time I hear an 'expert' base their opinion or prediction on one or 2 players. Last week it was 'the Chargers have LT and Gates, you can't stop both'. You DONT HAVE TO. There are 11 players out there. You must only hold your own against the best ones, have somewhat of an advantage against the mediocre ones, and exploit the bad ones (or the bad ones it the situations they are bad).
    The fact of the matter is when any offense and defense line up against each other the result has an awful lot less to do with the 2 best guys on either side of the ball than it does to do with the 2 worst guys on either side of the ball.
    Ultimately our championships are not born by winning plays because the best 2-3 guys we have on the field for a play outplay their best 2-3, but because our WORST 2-3 far outplayed their worst 2-3.
    Look at it this way: Before almost every playoff game, you hear things like 'how will they stop this guy' or 'who do they have to cover him, or who can get open against him, or how can you run on them, pass on them etc'. Can anyone remember a time when we lost, or almost lost a playoff game because the 'great' guy on the other team dominated us? I can't. And it has never mattered what position that guy plays. Pass rusher, RB, QB, WR, etc, etc. We are not putting players on the field who will be dominated, and most teams are based on their guy dominating.
    Look at the Chargers. How could we stop them? If LT doesnt dominate, Rivers and Gates will, or Merriman will, and so on. Oneof them dominates every week. Why? Because every week their is a liability in the team they are playing. Good players are great when lined up against a scrub. Against us they are no more than good because they aren't lined up against a scrub.

    Wow, this went longer than I intended. Any way, for those not sold on the Patriots finishing the job, reread this post. See the similarities, and ask yourself whathas made this team 'clutch' or 'winners' and just a cut above the rest of the league for 5 years. This is the best answer I can see, and after going away for a while, that quality is back in Foxboro.
     
  2. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    We've got a game Sunday.
     
  3. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    one game at a time guys..we can wait for these threads IMO
     
  4. BlitzFritz

    BlitzFritz Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    yeah lets take it one game at a time
    also, a little noted point is that our Run D has not been stellar the past few weeks or so, giving over 100 yards to Tenn, Jax, Chargers
     
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I am talking mostly about this game, but projecting it forward to the next one as well.
    Fans do not need to take them one at a time, players and coaches do.
     
  6. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! In the Starting Line-Up

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    Interesting post, good points all around, but due to my strange karma thing I can't acknowledge that we will even stand a chance against the Dolts...... :D

    Refs and all. :rolleyes:

    Hopefully, we can revisit it later!
     
  7. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK, my memory is bad I thought we won those games.

    Serioulsy though, I dont know how you could possibly consider the Jax game bad run D. Take away the 78 yard run after everyone thought the RB was down, and they did nothing,

    Tenn had a RB run for 102, and a QB pass 15-36. I will take that every day of the week. Winning games isnt about stats. Everyone can run for 100 against us if it means they end up losing. Surely you know that the same scheme that allowed 102 created 15-36.

    Chargers? I think its a great thing to allow 100 yards to a RB whos offense scores 34 points a game, and while giving up those 100, allowing only 21 points and winning.

    This is the NFL. You dont stop everything by everyone. The point is that were not expoited by any of those players. We limited their IMPACT to not enough to beat us. I don't care if limiting the IMPACT of Peyton Manning to beat us means he throws for 600 yards, but we stop him in the red zone, pick him off, sack him, and allow 17 points, That would be GOOD DEFENSE.
     
  8. The Gr8est

    The Gr8est In the Starting Line-Up

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    Andy, to play devil's advocate, if Troy doesn't strip McCree, we probably lose. What would you attribute the "loss" to?
     
  9. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I have always summarized the BB system as "no holes anywhere !!" and that means having a replacement ready for every position that will also not create a hole either. Beyond that have an alternate formation to go to if no player is available. 3-4 to 4-3; or spread vs power etc.

    It also means he wants few superstars as they distort the "do only your job" strategy. He also can't afford them and carry out his replacement always available strategy. Superstars expand their share of responsibilities that just can't be filled by a replacement. If you have a superstar, make sure they restrict their play a bit by playing very fundamentally correct football.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2007
  10. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Championships are not determined by ifs.
    But I will answer you question anyway.
    It is LUDICROUS to say if he doesnt strip McCree we lose. Why, because AFTER that we still got the ball back, still drove down the field and only didnt score a TD because we stopped to set up the FG.

    Eliminate the fumble, and the rest of the drive, and the time it took off the clock, then pick up what happened after. We are sitting right at the same spot, down 8 with at least 2 minutes left. If we took that fumble and scored a TD, how could you say we wouldnt have finished the next drive and gotten the same 2.
    Worst case, we go to OT.

    But it doesnt matter. We won. There is not a single Champion ever that you can't point to a play and if it went the other way they may not have won. They won, we won. It is about winning, not about what ifs that never happened.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2007
  11. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    brady certainly doesnt agree with you

    http://www.allthingsbillbelichick.com/articles/2007/flawesome.htm

     
  12. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Id say that too if I were Brady.
    But I dont quite think that if he hadn't Brady would be sitting on the sidelines, down a score with that muchtime left saying put Cassel in its over.

    Besides it is a FACT that there was enough time left to score because they scored again after that.
    After that play, the Chargers didnt stop the Pats at all. So if there was enough time to score, and they didnt stopus after it, why would we not have scored?

    Please dont get into the argumnet that the 3 andout we putup on D with the game tied would have been different if McCree didnt fumble, that would be foolsih.
     
  13. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Awesome stuff Andy. I'm reserving judgement on getting too excited because I can't but worry about being on the road, the crowd, etc. But when I look at the teams (this week's game), we are stronger, tougher and can do just about anything - maybe not as well as we'd like in all cases but still everything. And I can't help but think that Manning's greater than ever dependence on the two great WR vs. two great WR and a bunch of other stuff will make it easier to set Manning up to fail. And offensively I see us moving very well. Our OL is stronger than ever up the middle and it should really show against the Colts. Their pass defense isn't that good, we should be able to use and abuse them almost at will.

    FWIW, I'll be rooting for the Bears in the early game, I like that matchup better than the Saints in case we win the late game. Although if the Colts win then I'll be wishing the Saints won.
     
  14. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    relax man...iam not getting into an argument so you dont need think iam foolish :)..you are always right..we will win the SB..happy ?
     
  15. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah, what's Brady going to say ? "Sure it was a nice play but I'd have pulled it out either way". Positively Manning-esque ;)

    We very well might have lost without it, who knows, but Brady's quote has little meaning.
     
  16. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I didnt call you foolish, I said THAT ARGUMENT would be foolish. You didnt make it did yuo?
     
  17. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If I was able to help you see the light, of course I am happy.
    Seriously though, I am as confident about this team as I have been about any to this point. (and partly its because Ive had 3 examples of what the things I am seeingtoday result in in foxboro)
     
  18. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    i didnt see a light or anything...i would just like to take one game at a time..nevertheless keep the +ve opinions going...
     
  19. SamBam39

    SamBam39 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Excellent points Andy! - I think your insights into how BB goes about exploiting teams in the playoffs was superlative. It's fun to watch the opponent go crazy late in a game, when BB disguises what he's allowing and tricks them. They are just not able to predict it and because of the overall strength of the team, there are no easy outs at that point. Of course the Pats could lose either of the next two potential games, but I agree, that there's a lot of evidence to suggest that they're not going to!
     
  20. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Cool. You should do that. But you don't mind if some of us talk about trends that cover two games, do you?
     
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