Why the Pats should spend big this year

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Until the Patriots start learning to spend they'll never win the offseason SB trophy. So jealous of Dolphins fans, they get to see big splashes and high draft picks, it really sucks. #nflisrigged

 

[JarOfMayo51]

$8 million for Ryan sounds insane.

It would be insane for the Pats to pay that, but it won't be insane for another team that looks at him as a #1 CB, or an elite #2

Rowe and Cyrus Jones provide cheaper options, but they'll need to draft another and maybe bring in a FA veteran

 

[mgteich]

It would be insane for the Pats to pay that, but it won't be insane for another team that looks at him as a #1 CB, or an elite #2

Rowe and Cyrus Jones provide cheaper options, but they'll need to draft another and maybe bring in a FA veteran

OK, so you think that Ryan is not worth $8M and prefer to play with the cheaper option of Cyrus Jones. How well did Jones play this year that you have such confidence?

 

[BobDigital]

I have completely lost you on what your point is.
First you said go sign long term deals with big name free agents and pay them at the top of their position because in a few years they will only be paid like the top 5.
Now you say sign Hightower, Butler and maybe Ryan.
There is 60 mill of cap space. The question is whether, as you seem to prefer, it gets loaded up on 'big name' long term contracts, or it gets used judiciously and conservatively to build an entire roster.

And now you are saying 'don't be afraid to spend a few more million' above what the organization has used as its basis for the maximum value of a player. That is a departure from the plan.
Its as if you are saying, Hey I just realized the cap is going up, lets abandon our plan and use it like the Jets would.

Let me make it clear on what my point is. The Pats should not be afraid to set the market or close to on certain players particularly Hightower/Butler. The Pats tend to have a number in their mind set but they stepped off that for McCourty and I think they should be even more inclined to step off their number for top players this year particularly their own. Also while doing so they should offer long term contracts as those will be more value going forward than we give credit for due to the projected rise in the cap.

Also they should be willing to over pay to an extent good free agents even though they are not true stars and step off their number by a reasonable amount (I mentioned a few million). That is true for Any player at this point as long as they are good.

That being said I wanted to make it clear if someone gets really crazy and offers way more than a player will be worth even taking into account the projected rise in cap space we will see then we should not go crazy either. It was my attempt to say don't be afraid to be very aggressive and spend money but don't follow a crazy person off a cliff. Something like signing a 30 year old CB to a 16M/year contract. That just makes no sense. When they spend do it very aggressively and intelligently. This is why I don't want them to spend on Bennett. He is 30 and going to decline. Let him walk as opposed to a 3-4 year 8M per year deal. However Ryan who is 26 and hitting his prime and ALWAYS healthy... That is a player you can over spend on and step off THEIR number a few million as long as you think it is reasonable. Also they should be be afraid to set the marker for Hightower/Butler and offer perhaps top of the market deals for both cause in the next few years those deals will look better as they go from top of the market to top 5 in the market to perhaps top 10 in the market by the end of their contracts making them good value.

That make it more clear?

 

[BobDigital]

$8 million for Ryan sounds insane.

Well lets do the math. The Pats have 165M in cap space and if they pay Ryan 8M per year that is a little under 5% of their total cap. If the Cap goes up to 190-200M over the next 3 years after this one and you are still paying Ryan 8M at that point he could be considered under paid for a #2 CB. Right now paying him 8M would make him the 23rd highest paid CB in the NFL if he was being paid that right now. In 3 years he will be the 40-50th highest paid CB in there NFL. If you keep him 5 years he will be under paid on his last year. If you structure it at 7M, 7.5M 8M 8.5M 9M not only will you only pay him 7M this year but as the contract goes on you actually pay him less per year as percent of cap space.

 

[mgteich]

Seems contrary to what the organization does.
By "spend big" on these guys do you mean pay Ryan like a #1 corner since someone else will? Pay Harmon starter money even though he is S3? And pay Bennett like he is 26 and durable like someone will be sucked into?
These are exactly the spots BB fills with inexpensive players. Cb3 TE2 S3 aren't spots I expect to see 7-10 mill a year thrown at.

First, my primary point is that we should emphasize signing our own free agents.

CORNER
Is Ryan really a CB3? If that what you believe, then we certainly should be competing in price with those who rate him as a #2 CB or #1 CB.

TIGHT ENDS
It is fine to keep on searching for TE's, understanding that they will likely need to start or play a major role when Gronk is injured. Also, by signing Bennett in the first place, he was trying a new paradigm for most teams: TWO #1 TE's. Some would argue that Belichick has tried this before, and that both he and Josh are fine with the idea of 2 starting TE's. In the past couple of seasons, many have wanted to carry 4 tight ends, BECAUSE we do indeed want to have two starting TE's.

SAFETY
I don't know what Harmon will earn in free agency. However, he provides more than simply a backup safety as you imply. But, you may be right. Others may be willing to pay him to be a #1 safety.

PRIORITIES
Belichick will define his priorities . The OP might be right. Maybe, he will use the money to get high priced free agents that do not not currently play for us. I certainly hope not.

I would rather "overpay" a couple of million each for our top four free agents than pay a bit less for untested talent. Of course, we could always count on picking up guys like Van Noy and Rowe late and have them make major contributions.

 

[shmessy]

OK, so you think that Ryan is not worth $8M and prefer to play with the cheaper option of Cyrus Jones. How well did Jones play this year that you have such confidence?

At CB, pretty damn well.

At KR, not so much.

Since Logan Ryan never returned a kick, I'm not so much worried about Cy Jones' fumble problems on defense.

.

 

[shmessy]

Until the Patriots start learning to spend they'll never win the offseason SB trophy. So jealous of Dolphins fans, they get to see big splashes and high draft picks, it really sucks. #nflisrigged

Frickin' cheap idiots wouldn't pay Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins!!!!!!!

We must keep all our binkies!!!!!!

.

 

[Ring 6]

Let me make it clear on what my point is. The Pats should not be afraid to set the market or close to on certain players particularly Hightower/Butler. The Pats tend to have a number in their mind set but they stepped off that for McCourty and I think they should be even more inclined to step off their number for top players this year particularly their own. Also while doing so they should offer long term contracts as those will be more value going forward than we give credit for due to the projected rise in the cap.

Also they should be willing to over pay to an extent good free agents even though they are not true stars and step off their number by a reasonable amount (I mentioned a few million). That is true for Any player at this point as long as they are good.

That being said I wanted to make it clear if someone gets really crazy and offers way more than a player will be worth even taking into account the projected rise in cap space we will see then we should not go crazy either. It was my attempt to say don't be afraid to be very aggressive and spend money but don't follow a crazy person off a cliff. Something like signing a 30 year old CB to a 16M/year contract. That just makes no sense. When they spend do it very aggressively and intelligently. This is why I don't want them to spend on Bennett. He is 30 and going to decline. Let him walk as opposed to a 3-4 year 8M per year deal. However Ryan who is 26 and hitting his prime and ALWAYS healthy... That is a player you can over spend on and step off THEIR number a few million as long as you think it is reasonable. Also they should be be afraid to set the marker for Hightower/Butler and offer perhaps top of the market deals for both cause in the next few years those deals will look better as they go from top of the market to top 5 in the market to perhaps top 10 in the market by the end of their contracts making them good value.

That make it more clear?

It's clear I just disagree. We have had all of this success with a disciplined plan and I see no reason to try a new strategy.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

OK, so you think that Ryan is not worth $8M and prefer to play with the cheaper option of Cyrus Jones. How well did Jones play this year that you have such confidence?

I don't have that much confident in Jones, but I have some confidence in Rowe

I just think some team will offer Ryan way too much money for us to reasonably match

 

[convertedpatsfan]

$8 million for Ryan sounds insane.

Does it? I mean in a league where Darius Slay is averaging $12M/year, Byron Maxwell $10.5M, and Sean Smith $10M, I don't see $8M for Ryan as ridiculous.

In terms of 2017 free agent cornerbacks, you have A.J. Bouye who had a nice year but not much of a track record, Trumaine Johnson who may or may not get franchised again, Butler who is restricted, Stephon Gilmore who has been inconsistent, and Logan Ryan. Ryan could be the 2nd-rated CB on the market.

I would take him back for $8M a year but I expect that contract to be stupid. I wouldn't be surprised to see it over $10M. I'm not saying he's worth it, but free agency does strange things to people.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I also think the OP could have saved himself a ton of grief if he titled the post differently.

This isn't necessarily about the Patriots changing their approach to free agency or contracts, just more about the cost of doing business going up due to the salary cap changes. The landscape of contracts will be different.

It's not quite the same as inflation, but acts similarly because you need to spend more to get the same type of talent. A $5M player last year will probably cost you $7M next year, a $10M player last year will probably cost you $12M next year.

We saw this in the NBA, where the cost of getting a certain player increased dramatically due to the spikes in the salary cap. That's all we're talking about here. Not a change of approach or aggressiveness.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Also the Pats should not wait. This may be the last string of years the cap rises like this. I think we are going to be in for a readjustment period after 2020 not unlike 09'-13' as the rise in cap stalls. Just a guess though but the NFL has reach saturation and it will settle.

I'm of the if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. Brady looks like he has at least 2-3 years in him if he stays healthy *fingers crossed*. The roster is solid and I see no reason to throw money at overpriced veterans. We hear the same drumbeat after every season: spend more! Yet part of what keeps the Patriots successful is not making those big splashes money-wise with the exception of veterans looking for a one year deal to prove something.

Case in point Revis: we got a good year out of him and he got a major contract the next year with the Jest. The icing on the cake? His play took a nosedive and now he likely won't even play for the Jest after his little terrorist event. The Patriots are wise to not get locked in with high priced veteran free agents. Pick the players looking to prove something and keep churning. It is Moneyball NFL style, just successful unlike the Cleveland Browns and their "system."

I'm also weary of banking on the salary cap rising these next few years. Although I am reluctant to go too deep into politics here, the fact is that the country is divided right now and more than half the population (across the political spectrum) are worrying about a major war breaking out. When people are afraid without a clear picture of what's going to happen, they tend to hold onto their dollars. This means less NFL tickets and cancelled satellite and cable contracts (yay! to running ESPN out of business). In the end, political and economic uncertainty means that the NFL makes less and, in turn, the salary cap slows in its rise. The only way I see the cap rising significantly in these conditions is if more of the world buys into the NFL brand. With American's reputation in free-fall and football a brand linked to American identity and patriotism, I'd suggest this won't happen. Overall, I'd say be a bear rather than a bull in this environment. And, moreover, stick to what works: churning the roster.