Wholesale vs. Retail....that is the question

[patfanken]

There was phrase that's came out of the MIT symposium has resonated with me the last couple of days since I read about it. "Retail vs Wholesale".

I think it was Pioli who said it, or maybe the Indian guy from the Niners. Basically he was saying that the you should look at the FA market as being "retail", while the draft has become the "wholesale" market. And the teams that get MOST of their players from the draft are the teams that consistently do well both on the field and with their cap. Ever since then I can't get it out of my head when I think about signing FA's because of the high price that all the best ones will bring.

Make no mistake about it, EVERY free agent signing comes at a huge risk. There are no "sure things". Just look at our own. Talib, Welker, and Volmer all come with big risks that would severely impact our cap if they didn't ultimately work out... and even if they do. We currently have 5 guys who we gave big contracts to over the last few years. Mankins, Wilfolk, Mayo, Gronk, and Hernandez, and last season we failed to get full value from our investment on 3 of them, simply due to injuries.

Another example of the retail vs wholesale effect is comparing Mankins vs Dowling. Both have been injured for good part of the last 2 seasons. But in the end, the loss of one has been an inconvenience, while the other affects the team more, not only on the field but with our cap management. Logan Mankins is a better offensive guard than Donald Thomas, but is he $7MM/yr better?

(btw- I understand that this isn't a perfect analogy. as Mankins played a lot more than Dowling, but I hope you get the point I'm making. That is if a high priced player gets hurt, it has a magnified impact than just a rookie)

The other thing to consider is the effect these potential signings have BEYOND this season. There is no question in my mind that that Pats could sign all three of our top FA's and take a cap hit this season of less than $12MM, leaving us half the space available for more. But what would it mean down the road as those cap costs escalate, and all the other contracts from those excellent recent drafts start to come due.

Wholesale vs Retail? - Its not an easy question and, unfortunately there are no easy pat answers. I'm a fan,. so my instinct is to say "sign them all. Give them what they need to keep them here. We have the room for the 3 of them and more". However, as a student of the game with a sense of history, you can't help but acknowledge that that strategy hasn't worked out very often in the past, and certainly not long term for any team. It took over a decade for the Niners to recover

All off seasons are fascinating to observe and speculate on. But this one is particularly interesting. It is going to be a great case study in the value of the "short term" strategy vs a "long term" one. I have no clue about how the Pats will respond. Will the looming end of the Brady era affect or change how the team does business or will they continue on the path we've seen so often. If its the latter, then I doubt we sign more than one of our FA's and sign any of the big outside guys over the first 2 weeks of the FA season.

If we are looking at history, the Pats have signed just 2 high profile FA's over the BB era. Rosey Colvin and Adaleus Thomas. Colvin ended up being a solid player, but one, because of injury, never reached the status he flashed before that catastrophic hip injury. Thomas, IMHO was a lot better than most think. He had a good first year and a better 2nd year before he got hurt midway through the season. It was his disastrous last year that tainted his Patriots legacy. So in the end,. at BEST, our experience with high profile FA's has been mixed. While others could argue its been down right poor.

Want another example, just look at 2011. Ocho and Hayneworth were our big name FA signings that season and were relatively expensive...at least for us. Both ended up being horrible busts. Yet Waters, Carter, and Anderson came in totally under the radar and were all home runs by any comparison. Or if that isn't enough, just look at the example of the Eagles "dream team".

But then you have the other side. It's hard to buy wholesale when you are picking at the end of each round and only have 5 picks. Its conversely a lot easier to buy retail when you have $25MM in your wallet and the market is glutted with product. You certainly can pay top dollar if you want to shop on Rodeo Drive the first couple of weeks, but there will be some tremendous bargains out there if you are good, lucky and....patient There will be some solid contributors to be found if you are willing to search the "internet" of FA.

Now we are in position to sign at least 3 high profile guys (Even if you only include our own 3 guys). What results should we expect? Which road will we take, or can we take both? I can't wait to see it unfold over the next 5 months. BTW- I caution patience, A lot will happen the last 2 weeks of this month, but so much more will occur after that.

 

[Ivan]

I think this team is in pretty good shape in terms of depth and are set at a number of positions, the end goal is championships to close out the Brady era and to get there they need difference makers, the question is how to get them. The way I see it is that the Patriots are set at the following positions: QB, as long as Brady is there that's all that matters, if he goes down their Super Bowl chances are done. Mallett is acceptable as a back up but so are plenty of other QB''s, including Cassel or Hoyer. TE, Gronkowski and Hernadez gives them 2 pro bowl caliber TE's, and Ballard is as good a 3rd as you will ever find. LB, this one is debatable as it is predicated upon them being a 4-3 base defense, but if the starters are Spikes, Mayo, and Hightower then they have a really good starting LB corps and decent depth, however if they are using the 3-4 then they could certainly use a pass rushing OLB to go with their 3 existing starters, and that would be one of the areas to add a difference maker. RB, Ridley and Vereen give them a really good 1-2 set of Rb's, and i like Brandon Bolden as a 3rd and expect Woodhead to be back. They can add at RB but it is not a great need for them and they don''t need a starter. ST, imo they are set with Mesko and Gostkowqski, i''m not in the camp that they need to replace Gostkowski and I believe he will bounce back and have a really good 2013 season.

Next comes the areas where they are solid but not great, starting with the OL. The Patriots OL is good but not dominant right now, re-signing Vollmer would be great if possible, and while he could make more in free agency I would not rule out the possibility of Vollmer signing a 4 year deal with 10-12 guaranteed worth around 25 million. I wouldn't bank on it but it's still a possibility. If they can get this done and add an interior OL on day 2 of the draft they can have a really good OL for the next few years without much more movement. Their DL is also solid , especially in a 4-3 base, but like LB they could benefit from a difference maker when they are in their 3-4 as they really need a dominant end who can demand double teams out of the 3-4. guys like Love and Deaderick are decent players but not dominant and certainly not in a class with players like Seymour and warren when they were in their prime, so while they are in good shape on DL adding a dominant 3-4 end would greatly improve their front 7.

Imo the Patriots need to add difference makers in 3 areas, pass rush, wide receiver, and the defensive secondary, and in 2 of the 3 if not 3 of the 3 areas they need multiple players, not just 1. However in all 3 areas they can use the draft as well as free agency to address these needs so the financial cost won't be as high as it would be if free agency was their only option . starting with Wr they need to re-sign Welker this week, and then they can use the draft and free agency to address a deep threat and possession receiver to replace Lloyd. it makes more sense to get the deep threat in the draft because guys like wallace are too expensive to add in free agency, however a possession receiver to go with this could be added at a reasonable cost in free agency or via a trade. I could see them however re-signing Welker, adding Hartline as the possession receiver and then drafting a deep threat on day 2 of the draft. the nest area is the defensive secondary, and while i don't believe Talib will return I think there are plenty of options at CB in free agency and they could take a guy like Elam or Ammerson in the draft to bolster the secondary. I-Dowling returning and contributing would be a huge bonus but I'm not counting on it. i don't think they will pay a guy like Goldson because they already passed on him at a much lower cost. The last area where they ned to add a big difference is in their pass rush, and how they approach that can vary depending upon cost and availability. They could go after a 5 technique 3-4 DE or another 4-3 DE who can get after the QB, or they could go for the 3-4 OLB who can get after the QB. I really don't care which approach they take and I''m fine with it comeing threough the draft or free agency, just as long as they get it done and put serious presure on opposing QB's in the future. They should focus on seriously upgrading these 3 areas and if they do so then i think the have the depth and are in great shape on the other units.