I cant trust Cincy with Marvin Lewis. McCaron has won two BCS titles so maybe he wont choke like Dalton. Denver is far worse with Cheaton. Osweiler is the better QB by far.
I'm not trying to be a contrarian, but I think Cincy is much more dangerous, and A.J. McCarron under center makes me nervous. Before the hysterical laughter begins, let me at least explain why.
Although Dalton was playing very well this year (and many had speculated that he had finally hit another, elite level), in past years Cincy as a team and Dalton in particular played very poorly in the biggest games on the biggest stages, and so you could somewhat discount them as a threat in games on the biggest stages.
A.J. McCarron is a second year back-up QB, a 2014 fifth round draft choice, so that doesn't sound like he was rated very highly by NFL talent evaluators. He evidently dropped in the draft because he came across to draft evaluators as "too confident". Plus, he was judged as a "game manager" type of quarterback known primarily for not throwing interceptions (in 2012 he had 30 TD's to an absurdly low 3 INT), who benefited from a great offensive line and great running backs at Alabama (both true).
However, I've got to tell you all that even if he is an inexperienced, lightly regarded back-up, there are two things that worry me: i) he has really played pretty well for a QB playing his first few starts in relief of Dalton; ii) he was one of the best "big game" quarterbacks in college I've ever seen, particularly when it came to avoiding mistakes (which plagued Cincy in past playoff games).
McCarron's passing stats in his two Alabama BCS National Championship victories (over LSU in 2012 and Notre Dame in 2013): 43 of 62 for 4 TD's and zero INT. You could pretty much assume no interceptions from him in a big game. He would have played for a third straight BCS championship against Florida State in 2014 except for a miracle play (Auburn's 109 yard TD return of an Alabama field goal attempt with 2 seconds remaining).
He also provided some last minute comeback magic too, such as in 2012 where (after Alabama had been largely bottled up by the LSU defense all game) he stunned LSU with a 5-play 72 yard TD with 96 seconds left in the game.
Thus, IMHO I wouldn't assume that McCarron will come into Gillette Stadium and be overwhelmed by the moment and choke (like Cincy has so many times in the past), Cincy could be dangerous.
