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Where do the Pats WR's rank relative to the NFL?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by makewayhomer, Mar 13, 2007.

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  1. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    Former lurker, now poster. Sorry for another WR thread, but this one is a new topic.

    With all the recent additions to the WR addition, where do the Patriots WR's rank relative to the league? Are they an average unit? Above average? Below?

    Is our 3 WR set better (relative to the NFL) than our 2 receiver set? I think so.

    For the sake of argument, lets use these as our units:

    2 WR's: Stallworth and Caldwell
    3 WR's: Stallworth, Caldwell, and Welker
    4 WR's: Stallworth, Caldwell, Welker, and Gaffney

    I think the most important of the above are the 2/3 WR sets, just b/c we don't figure to go 4 wide very often.
  2. danny88

    danny88 Banned

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    Washington is going to be a good player
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2007
  3. Boston Boxer

    Boston Boxer U.S. Air Force Retired PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    i say they are an average unit...alot better than last year, but still average as a whole
  4. Bobs My Uncle

    Bobs My Uncle PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Ditto for me as well.
  5. 37Harrison

    37Harrison Rookie

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    #37 Jersey


    yep, just average.
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2007
  6. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Dunno about just average. Stallworth is an excellent deep threat. I think how well Stallworth works out for us will go a long way to determining how good this unit is. Also if Washington can step up he could claim a starting job. And Wes Welker is a great underneath option imo. The Pats for the first time are going to be able to work a lot of mismatches, deep, underneath, and middle range. I expect to see a completely different unit on the field next season. And with Brady pulling the trigger, I can easily see 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs from Tommy in 2007.
  7. pciamp24

    pciamp24 Rookie

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    I think that this group could be above average and one of the better groups in the NFL if healthy.

    That is a big IF!
  8. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The way that Brady spreads the seed around....
  9. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    measured by what? receptions? yards gained? TD's? big game impact? spreading the field to open up the running game to succeed? I don't think you can rank this group since (a) it's never played together and (b) some of its main components have never played with TB. We don't know how Stallworth and Brady will click on the field. If the pieces all fit together and work together really well, it could be the best unit in the NFL. If they don't or if people start to complain that they're not seeing enough balls, then this time next year we'll see a dozen threads like "What were they thinking?" It's hard to think of Jerry Rice without thinking of Joe Montana. Rice was great, but he was the greatest because of how he worked with Joe.
  10. Coog548

    Coog548 Rookie

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    Not one single reciever will put up HUGE numbers. I think they will do alot better than last year but i don't even know if Washington will even make the team. He sign a small contract and i believe will be gone before the season starts.
  11. Fixit

    Fixit Rookie

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    As a unit, top to bottom, better than average.
  12. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Right now, Caldwell's the one and only receiver who has a full season of experience playing with Brady in the Patriots' system. Given that, I think I'll predict that the WR corps will be worse than average for the first handful of games, but better than average by the end of the season.
  13. patriotsdynasty12189

    patriotsdynasty12189 Rookie

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    If you want depth, we probably have the best with all our WR could be average starters. Most teams have 2 or 3 good to great WR while we have 6 average receivers and one good WR.
  14. Fixit

    Fixit Rookie

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    Most teams have 2 or 3 good to great receivers? I beg to differ.
  15. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    this is the best tandems in the league, as ranked by DPAR. I don't know if you guys visit footballoutsiders.com but they do some awesome stuff there. it's basically SABR metrics for football. Now, this analysis is much newer for football than it is for baseball, so you need to take some stuff with a grain of salt.

    maybe I'll start another thread to discuss their work. anywho, here is their list of teams with 2 WR's who were each top 30 last year


    11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 7
    81-A.Boldin ARI 21

    84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 4
    85-C.Johnson CIN 5

    81-T.Owens DAL 8
    83-T.Glenn DAL 9

    11-Ro.Williams DET 6
    87-M.Furrey DET 10

    87-R.Wayne IND 1
    88-M.Harrison IND 2

    12-M.Colston NO 11
    19-D.Henderson NO 17
    87-J.Horn NO 18

    10-S.Holmes PIT 19
    86-H.Ward PIT 30

    18-D.Hackett SEA 15
    82-D.Jackson SEA 24

    80-I.Bruce STL 12
    83-K.Curtis STL 29

    that's 9 teams
  16. T-ShirtDynasty

    T-ShirtDynasty Moderator

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    Pulling out DPAR on your second post? Ahhhh.... the force is strong with this one. ;) Welcome to the board.
  17. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So is our trio in the top 10?? They are pretty close on paper, but difficult to tell without performance numbers with this QB and in this system, Kelly Washington may be a very good fine. His height and ability to go over the middle may be beneficial.
  18. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    I don't think our unit is top 10.

    I think our 2 WR set is just about average. Remember Caldwell was JAG on the Chargers, who themselves don't have great WR's. Stallworth is very good, probably a top 25 WR.



    keep in mind I am ignoring Brady in all of this, and assuming that all NFL teams have the same robot QB.
  19. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    Pats WR corp 2007: deep with average talent and significant upside.

    Pats WR corp 2006: Lacks depth, bellow average talent with very little upside. (since Branch left, despite drafting Jackson).

    Compare with the Colts, I think the Pats have a deeper corp with more talent. If I had to measure their top two with the Pats top two, it wouldn't be favorable to the Patriots. I would toss a ton of teams out there who I think have a better WR corp such as Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis and Cincy. But then there are teams like San Fran, San Diego, Baltimore, Philly and Tampa that the Patriots would measure favorably against.

    In the end, this group matches the offense. And that is all you really need. Especially when your playing the Broncos and they have two pro bowl corners, you just toss in four wide receivers.
  20. Krazy Koz

    Krazy Koz Rookie

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    Would you mind explaining what the numbers mean to some extent. From someone on the outside, it seems like you just listed 9 groups of player/team with some numbers on the end with no perameters or other information to form our own opinion. It sounds like this info could be helpful. thanks for posting.
  21. Krazy Koz

    Krazy Koz Rookie

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    here I found some stuff http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php

    WIDE RECEIVERS 2006
    Regular season totals, playoffs not included
    Revised as of 1/1/2007

    Wide receivers are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level WR in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

    The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

    DPAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch % represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

    * We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
    * These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
    * "Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
    * All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.
  22. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    Koz,
    Sorry I should have explained. maybe I should start another thread to discuss it, since it's really a larger issue.

    Short issue: DPAR attempts to isolate a players performance, and rank it relative to the fictional "replacement" player. this is how value is judged.

    for a long answer, see here

    http://footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar

    now, I think for individual stats, DPAR is not perfect, but is better than traditional stats like receptions and TD's. I think as a team stat DPAR is much better
  23. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks, interesting list. Of course, the criterion (2+ in top 30) by definition yields less than half the league! But looking at the full chart you recommended, and projecting Gaffney and Washington's numbers to a fuller season, then based on last year the Patriots have 3 guys in the #2 starter range (30-50) and two more in the borderline starter range (60-70)...but none in the solid #1 starter range (<20).
  24. Krazy Koz

    Krazy Koz Rookie

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    thanks for the additional info.

    Here are some stats for our WR's sorry for the sloppyness the format makes it this way

    Min = 50 passes
    Player / Team / DPAR / DPAR Rank / PAR / PAR Rank / DVOA / DVOA Rank / VOA / Passes / Yards / TD / Catch %

    87-R.Caldwell / NE / 15.7 / 32 / 12.7 / 37 / 9.4% / 32 / 4.1% / 102 / 767 / 4 / 60%

    18-D.Stallworth / PHI / 12.3 / 39 / 13.6 / 33 / 7.4% / 35 / 10.4% / 78 / 725 / 5 / 49%

    83-W.Welker / MIA / 9.6 / 46 / 8.9 / 52 / 0.1% / 47 / -1.2% / 100 / 687 / 1 / 67%

    80-T.Brown / NE / 4.2 / 61 / 3.1 / 65 / -6.3% / 59 / -9.0% / 76 / 386 / 4 / 58%


    10 - 49 passes
    Player / Team / DPAR / PAR / DVOA / VOA / Passes / Yards / TD / Catch
    %

    17-C.Jackson / NE / 4.9 / 4.2 / 23.5% / 17.1% / 19 / 152 / 3 / 68%

    85-D.Gabriel / NE / 4.1 / 2.9 / -1.2% / -5.7% / 47 / 344 / 3 / 53%

    87-K.Washington / CIN / 4.3 / 4.6 / 36.6% / 40.9% / 12 / 115 / 1 / 75%

    10-J.Gaffney / NE / 3.1 / 2.6 / 8.5% / 4.3% / 20 / 142 / 1 / 55%
  25. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    makewayhomer, welcome aboard. Helluva first thread.
  26. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Last edited: Mar 13, 2007
  27. frankiesfly

    frankiesfly Rookie

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    Comparing us to other teams i think we have the 3rd best recieving group in the AFC, behing the Colts and Cincy.
  28. drpatriot

    drpatriot Rookie

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    If we take the average of the DPAR and DVOA for every receiver now on our team, we have an average of 6.45 DPAR and 16.12% DVOA. A receiver with those numbers would be ranked #57 in DPAR and #17 in DVOA.

    If I understand the system correctly, this is relatively good news because it says that the receivers we have on our roster aren't used very often, but are effective when they are used. Perhaps with more opportunities here, one or two will perform better.
  29. frankiesfly

    frankiesfly Rookie

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    Comparing us to other teams i think we have the 3rd best recieving group in the AFC, behind the Colts and Cincy.
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2007
  30. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    I'd say our top 2-3 guys put us in the middle of the pack, while our full unit is top 10 in the NFL.

    There are some unknowns here. Washington is mainly unrealized potential here, while Stallworth is at best an above-average starter. Where our WR corps could shine is its depth, where we have 4 guys who could all make a case for starting on severall teams.

    Also, we now have a group of players that all fit a role in the offense, a deep threat, pesky slot reciever, a blocker/big body, and two middle of the field Givens types. Plus, we have Jackson, who could develop into either the deep threat role or the big body/red zone role if he gets it together.
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