What to do with Wes Welker?

[MoLewisrocks]

I would give him a 2 year deal.If he doesnt accept it then go after someone in the free agent market.

Because we all know how well FA WR's not named Welker have worked out around here... Just plug 'em in...:bricks:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'll take care of these two together, since they're basically the same thing.

First of all, let's address my previous views on Welker.
Welker was a year removed from ACL surgery and had just put up a season of 848 yards. He had essentially no production outside the slot, and he was badly outproduced by Branch in the 2/2/1 sets. Welker was a slot receiver on a team with two elite TEs. And while there are definitely ways to use a slot receiver with two TEs on the field (both WRs on one side, a TE as an outside receiver, going empty), it's limiting to an offense. Even now, the majority of Welker's snaps come in the slot.

There were two main things I did not account for. First of all, that Welker would not only regain his pre-ACL surgery athleticism, but surpass it. You find me a 29 yard old receiver that tears an ACL and then gets faster after recovering from it, and I'll admit that I should have expected him to be Superman. That 2010 season gave us a perfect indication of what Welker's going to be when his athleticism declines, because we got to see him play with one of his legs at far less than 100%.

Welker was 28 when he tore his ACL. Would you settle for a 27 year old RB comparison. Sports medicine has come a long way in the last decade... And if Welker can still produce 2010 stats in 3-4 years the team will be thrilled, particularly after they renegotiate his backend non guaranteed salary to reflect that. You seem to fail to grasp how long term contracts work in the NFL.

Second, I did not anticipate that Chad Johnson would bomb so hard. He has more recently claimed that his problems off the field made him unable to concentrate on football, and whatever the reason, he just sucked. Physically, he was what the Pats needed. Based on his previous production, down to the routes he ran and where he caught balls, he was exactly what the offense needed, a guy that you could stick outside to either win one on one matchups or pull attention from the middle of the field, letting the tight ends go to work. He was not a guy that statistically was confined to the slot. He was the exact opposite, and now we more that he was the exact opposite of Welker in more ways than that, especially mentally. Perhaps my trade Welker, trade for Ochocinco proposal was overly simplistic, but while some people expected Ochocinco to not be good, I don't think anybody expected it to be for reasons completely unrelated to his shenanigans, which weren't at all an issue.

You and BB... The only off the field problem Chad had here was the same one he's had his whole career. Can't focus. Probably could use some adderall. Although in his case he'd probably just use it to sharpen his focus on social media and video games as opposed to coaching and playbook. And some of us expected Chad to bust here despite their ability to eliminate outright shenanigans. Physically and fifty cents will get you a cup of coffee here. Mentally (acuity and toughness) is what it's all about when you play with Brady and for Belichick.

Now it's not like I was supporting giving Welker away. You also have to account for the new player. I don't remember if this was before or after the 2010 draft, but there were plenty of good players taken in the second and third rounds of each of those drafts. Maybe Belichick drafts a complete bust, or maybe he drafts Navorro Bowman, TJ Ward, Torrey Smith, or Randall Cobb. Or maybe he turns it into a 2012 first. I don't know, but you're completely ignoring that pick.

With good reason... The last time we traded a #1WR for a first round pick we ended up with Big Bang Clock... And the last WR we drafted here in the second or third round who amounted to anything was that guy...


Anyway, based what has happened with Welker, you have apparently deemed me too stupid to respond to anything related to him. So, since you have already caught me being wrong once, I'll make sure you benefit if it happens a second time. If, in four years, Welker has a 1,000 yard season (very modest production for a $10M receiver), then I'm gone forever. Feel free set as many alarms for January of 2017 as you need to remember. If Ian is around until then, then I will be too. And after being wrong a second time on Welker, I clearly do not deserve to talk at all about anything related to the Pats ever again.

He doesn't have to have a thousand yard season in 4 years to have been worth a deal that averages $10M. Two years would pretty much suffice... Because again it's all about the guaranteed money and the rest is fluff, unguaranteed salary subject to restructure at the teams discretion...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

No, it's not. It's your opinion that it's better, and that's fine for you, but there's no "definitely" about it.



Wayne will be 35 in November. Welker will be 32 next May.

The reality is that, even with a 4 year deal, which is not something I recommended, Welker's contract would still be ending with him at age 34, which means that it would be ending with him at the same age where Wayne's new contract is starting. As for what the Patriots should have done, they should have adapted to the changed WR market:

2 years 20-21, 15 guaranteed
3 years 24-30, 16-20 guaranteed (I'd have looked at 3/24-3/27 as the expected range)

Either of the above could have been offered and, since they'd already franchised him, the 2 year deal would have been a low offer anyway, but would have given Welker a bit more security without ramping his price up higher than the double franchise tag. Reportedly, they never budged off of 2 years 16, which was an insult.

Actually according to Wes they did budge, only in an even more insulting direction.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Sign the beast!

He is the sparkplug for the offense, him and TFB share the same brain, and he's proven to be a VERY tough and durable SOB. Edelperson has turned into a playmaker of later but how often is he injured, same with Amendola, but WW keeps on ticking and rarely misses playing time.

Also, how many other receivers work in this offense?

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

His targets are down an average of about 50% since the Jets game, from just under 9.5 to just over 4.5. You can call it what you want, but he's been scaled back.

I'll call it error because of the large swing is the result of 4 games where his targets were out of whack. I'll also call the reaction kneejerk, just like the one after WW only got targeted once in the first game. Overall they've been throwing less since the Jets game and if it wasn't for the high number of targets WW got in the Phins game his numbers would be trending down too.

I find it odd that many of the same posters that had their panties in a wad after the Titans are happy as clams after the Phins game. Cries of "forcing the ball to a receiver and ignoring another is ruining the offense" have turned into "a receiver is disappearing and another is saving the offense". The logic that when Lloyd is targeted a lot he's the cause of struggles and that when WW is targeted a lot he's bailing them out of struggles is based purely on personal feelings towards the WRs. When WW is targeted 30% more than his season avg the Pats have scored 31, 23, and 23 points; and when Lloyd has been the Pats have scored 18, 30, and 23 points.

 

[BrickPat]

Would BB be interested in signing Welker if he was on GB or Denver and approaching Free Agency? As Mo alluded to you can't just plug anyone in there and expect the same results.

It's ironic how we Pats fans rightfully proclaim how lucky we are to have Brady while dismiss the value/impact of having a Welker. I'm not implying that Welker is on the level of Brady at his respective position but his production and durability has been without equal. Another irony is that he is
6" shorter and 40 pounds lighter than many of his contemporaries yet has only been sidelined by a freak knee injury (that he recovered from much faster from than the average recoop time).

The Pats will not be in cap hell if they offer him a competetive contract.

Sign him.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's not about pure age.

Of course it is. It's about nothing other than age. That's why your arguments about it are so lousy.

Wayne has been plenty productive at 34. But had he not been, it was easy for the Colts to get rid of him with minimal loss ($5M). We don't know if Welker will be productive at 34. Heck, we don't know if he'll be productive at 32. The key there is that regardless of age, the Colts had an easy out of Wayne's contract, where nobody is proposing a Welker contract that has an easy out until it's over.

Wayne's productivity is irrelevant to the point being discussed, which is that he got a 3 year deal at age 34. If you want to use Wayne's productivity as something relevant, you could note the large drop in his catch numbers in his contract year, and ponder the impact of that on the money earned in his new contract. Welker's not about to drop from 111 catches to 75 catches, though. He's already in the 90s and is on pace for another 120+ catch season.

Instead of the two-year contract you propose, the Pats could instead have offered 2 years, $20.933M with $9.515M guaranteed. Heck, they still can do that. That's what he gets if the Pats franchise him again. There's no motivation on the Pats' end to offer him more than $9.5M guaranteed up front except to change the yearly cap hit split from $9.5 and then $11.4M to something more even.

You don't seem to understand how the franchise tag works. Either that, or you do know but you're being deliberately obtuse in order to shore up your point. The difference in tagging someone twice in a row and giving him the two year contract in the first franchise year is the guarantee against injury in that first year. If you can't figure out why that matters to the player, you should probably avoid contract discussions.

Depending on where in those ranges you end up, Welker is gaining one year, $8-14M, and $0-4 guaranteed. At the low end, it's another non-guaranteed year added onto the $16M/2yr proposal from the Pats. If you think that (or a little more) is enough that Welker would have accepted it, then I think it could definitely be arranged to be a pretty good deal on both ends. I just don't think Welker would be too quick to accept it unless he's getting closer to the $30M than the $27M.

Welker's not gaining anything, and 3 for 27 would have been a good, though not great, contract for last year. This year, the baseline's been reset. His minimum "Franchise" earning is now over $11 million in year one. Since his production hasn't waned at all, he has no real reason to accept the lower offers that would have looked so good last year. He should be able to make a killing on the market. Imagine the Colts looking at the idea of adding Welker to their offense, for example.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'll call it error because of the large swing is the result of 4 games where his targets were out of whack. I'll also call the reaction kneejerk, just like the one after WW only got targeted once in the first game. Overall they've been throwing less since the Jets game and if it wasn't for the high number of targets WW got in the Phins game his numbers would be trending down too.

You'll be incorrect. Cutting half the period discussed and acting as if it's "out of what" is just a way of avoiding the issue.

I find it odd that many of the same posters that had their panties in a wad after the Titans are happy as clams after the Phins game. Cries of "forcing the ball to a receiver and ignoring another is ruining the offense" have turned into "a receiver is disappearing and another is saving the offense". The logic that when Lloyd is targeted a lot he's the cause of struggles and that when WW is targeted a lot he's bailing them out of struggles is based purely on personal feelings towards the WRs. When WW is targeted 30% more than his season avg the Pats have scored 31, 23, and 23 points; and when Lloyd has been the Pats have scored 18, 30, and 23 points.

The response to this is obvious, and I'm not going to bother with it, since you'll just start cutting out half the season as "out of whack". You know it already, though, so I'll leave it at that.

 

[Ivan]

I'll call it error because of the large swing is the result of 4 games where his targets were out of whack. I'll also call the reaction kneejerk, just like the one after WW only got targeted once in the first game. Overall they've been throwing less since the Jets game and if it wasn't for the high number of targets WW got in the Phins game his numbers would be trending down too.

I find it odd that many of the same posters that had their panties in a wad after the Titans are happy as clams after the Phins game. Cries of "forcing the ball to a receiver and ignoring another is ruining the offense" have turned into "a receiver is disappearing and another is saving the offense". The logic that when Lloyd is targeted a lot he's the cause of struggles and that when WW is targeted a lot he's bailing them out of struggles is based purely on personal feelings towards the WRs. When WW is targeted 30% more than his season avg the Pats have scored 31, 23, and 23 points; and when Lloyd has been the Pats have scored 18, 30, and 23 points.

Wes Welker leads the league in YAC, Lloyd on the other hand averages 2.5 yards after the catch. which, since he is 6'0 means that he basically falls forward. I like the guy but that's really bad.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Wes Welker leads the league in YAC, Lloyd on the other hand averages 2.5 yards after the catch. which, since he is 6'0 means that he basically falls forward. I like the guy but that's really bad.

Agreed, Lloyd is probably the least explosive receiver the Pats have and definitely the least explosive of the 4 primary guys. He has a valuable and unique skillset, but it would be nice if he could either be used as a deep pass option or improve his YAC.

 

[PatsFan2]

Its not going to surprise me if Lloyd comes up catchless against the Texans and their pass rush. That said i hope Donte' Stallworth is up to speed in the Offense because I'll bet fingers and toes that right now he's faster than Lloyd.

 

[JackBauer]

Its not going to surprise me if Lloyd comes up catchless against the Texans and their pass rush. That said i hope Donte' Stallworth is up to speed in the Offense because I'll bet fingers and toes that right now he's faster than Lloyd.

Why on earth would it matter if Stallworth is faster than Lloyd?

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

You'll be incorrect. Cutting half the period discussed and acting as if it's "out of what" is just a way of avoiding the issue.



The response to this is obvious, and I'm not going to bother with it, since you'll just start cutting out half the season as "out of whack". You know it already, though, so I'll leave it at that.

You're wrong and it's so obvious I'm not going to bother with it... Good talk.

 

[docbar]

I say cut him immediately. He's too old, too slow, can't catch and has a bad attitude. BTW, y'all really need a :sarcasm: smiley!!!

 

[Deus Irae]

You're wrong and it's so obvious I'm not going to bother with it... Good talk.

Read the part of the post I was responding to. You should see the huge mistake in your post.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Read the part of the post I was responding to. You should see the huge mistake in your post.

Please enlighten me.

 

[Gumby]

I say cut him immediately. He's too old, too slow, can't catch and has a bad attitude. BTW, y'all really need a :sarcasm: smiley!!!

why would we need one of those?

 

[jbb9s]

And they should have beaten the damn colts, who could forget Caldwell being wide open and dropping the ball.

look at the game log. they scored a touchdown anyway to Jabar back when there was a DB force out call.

they lost the game because heath evans screwed up and they had 12 men in the huddle or something - remember it was the FB's fault. Anyhow, couldn't convert the 1st to ice the game after the penalty. Also, horrible call on Hobbs that led to a 1 yd toss to Klecko. Finally, the record for points in a 2nd half of an conference championship game, 32, was set on this day.

 

[Uncle Rico]

I haven't really been following this thread — and at 34 pages, I'm pretty sure I won't go back through it to catch up. SO forgive me if this has been said:

Since 2007, teams have been trying to find "the next Wes Welker." Well, with all due respect to guys like Amendola and Bess, no one has quite found him, in terms of productivity and durability.

To these eyes, and with a focus on this issue through 12 games, it's ever clearer that the guy is a unique talent. I don't think the Pats will have anymore luck finding "the next Wes Welker" than any other teams. Unless you're willing to modify your offense — and willing to gamble that this year's injuries to Gronk and Hernandez were flukes — you have to keep him.

 

[supafly]

I haven't really been following this thread — and at 34 pages, I'm pretty sure I won't go back through it to catch up. SO forgive me if this has been said:

Since 2007, teams have been trying to find "the next Wes Welker." Well, with all due respect to guys like Amendola and Bess, no one has quite found him, in terms of productivity and durability.

To these eyes, and with a focus on this issue through 12 games, it's ever clearer that the guy is a unique talent. I don't think the Pats will have anymore luck finding "the next Wes Welker" than any other teams. Unless you're willing to modify your offense — and willing to gamble that this year's injuries to Gronk and Hernandez were flukes — you have to keep him.

Couldn't agree more. It will definitely be about whether or not they can pony up the money or not.

While they "should," it certainly doesn't mean that they necessarily will.