What to do with Wes Welker?

[Double TE]

And if anyone can show WR's who produce more or as much as Welker please throw in what they make, that way there is a baseline fore Welkers value.

Its tough to measure bang for the buck because Megatron is also the face of the franchise like Brady here and AP in Minny for example. Are we speaking receptions or TDs? What are we measuring in terms of "production"?

 

[Ivan]

Calvin Johnson is clearly the best and most productive WR in the game, and there's no one else particularly close at this point.

"Best" is an opinion, I called him the most productive and haven't seen anyone prove otherwise.

 

[Double TE]

TE, once again you are making the same argument that has been made for 3 years, and once again all Welker has done is shred it to pieces by just getting better and better. That's why I called it Borges him, because those making it just keeP moving the goalposts and insisting they are right.

Forget Welker do you agree that for any player teams will gauge future production probabilities and pay for that. I agree that there will be outliers. Welker seems to be one. Tony Gonzalez is another for example. But generally the law of averages is not in Welker's favor. I was good with a three year deal for him last year. No idea why it did not get done.

Interestingly I hope people tackle my Mike Wallace comparison.

 

[ATippett56]

For those who are concerned about the age of a wide receiver needs some perspective on Reggie Wayne's performance this season:

2012 NFL Leaders and Leaderboards - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Reggie Wayne NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Ivan]

Its tough to measure bang for the buck because Megatron is also the face of the franchise like Brady here and AP in Minny for example. Are we speaking receptions or TDs? What are we measuring in terms of "production"?

His collective numbers, rec, yards, first downs, TD's........

Now lets look at the contracts of those who are in the same league with Welker.

 

[Double TE]

"Best" is an opinion, I called him the most productive and haven't seen anyone prove otherwise.

2011:

Calvin Johnson: 16 TDs
Wes Welker: 9 TDs

Megatron = more productive

 

[ivanvamp]

TE, once again you are making the same argument that has been made for 3 years, and once again all Welker has done is shred it to pieces by just getting better and better. That's why I called it Borges him, because those making it just keeP moving the goalposts and insisting they are right.

What reason do we have to believe that next year, or the year after, if Welker is healthy and playing with the Patriots, that he won't catch over 100 passes for about 1200+ yards?

I really can't think of any. The dude is amazing, and Brady trusts him big-time.

 

[Ivan]

Forget Welker do you agree that for any player teams will gauge future production probabilities and pay for that. I agree that there will be outliers. Welker seems to be one. Tony Gonzalez is another for example. But generally the law of averages is not in Welker's favor. I was good with a three year deal for him last year. No idea why it did not get done.

Interestingly I hope people tackle my Mike Wallace comparison.

Yes, teams pay for future value, and that's why the Patriots tagged him, because they knew someone would pay him what he is worth when they weren't willing to. And if they violate the CBA by trying to pull the same crap this year he should refuse to sign and challenge the tag. The league will nullify the tag because the Patriots didn't make a reasonable offer, and that is required by the CBA.

 

[Double TE]

His collective numbers, rec, yards, first downs, TD's........

Now lets look at the contracts of those who are in the same league with Welker.

What he also does is free up Gronk to just DOMINATE!!!! His intangibles are off the charts!

 

[Double TE]

Yes, teams pay for future value, and that's why the Patriots tagged him, because they knew someone would pay him what he is worth when they weren't willing to. And if they violate the CBA by trying to pull the same crap this year he should refuse to sign and challenge the tag. The league will nullify the tag because the Patriots didn't make a reasonable offer, and that is required by the CBA.

The whole benching for the first two games also was odd. I guess everyone is back to being cool now?

 

[manxman2601]

2011:

Calvin Johnson: 16 TDs
Wes Welker: 9 TDs

Megatron = more productive

2011

Eric Decker: 9TD's
Wes Welker: 9TD's

Funny. Wasn't someone talking about Decker earlier

 

[Deus Irae]

2011:

Calvin Johnson: 16 TDs
Wes Welker: 9 TDs

Megatron = more productive

Welker led the league in receptions, recording the 4th highest reception total of all time, and had 26 more than Johnson had. He was second in receiving yardage to Johnson, with just over 100 fewer yards receiving. Both had 77 first downs.

When it comes to claims of who was more productive in 2011, one can make a perfectly reasonable argument in defense of either player.

 

[Ivan]

What reason do we have to believe that next year, or the year after, if Welker is healthy and playing with the Patriots, that he won't catch over 100 passes for about 1200+ yards?

I really can't think of any. The dude is amazing, and Brady trusts him big-time.

Agree completely, that's why I am so tired of people doing the Borges routine to him.

 

[Ivan]

2011

Eric Decker: 9TD's
Wes Welker: 9TD's

Funny. Wasn't someone talking about Decker earlier

Great post, Welker and Decker are equally productive. No one can accuse you of being a moron.

 

[ivanvamp]

2011:

Calvin Johnson: 16 TDs
Wes Welker: 9 TDs

Megatron = more productive

Why are TD receptions a better indicator of production than, say, receptions or yards receiving? Picture this drive: Pats go 87 yards in 12 plays. On the drive, Welker catches 5 passes for 51 yards, including 4 for 1st downs, three of which were on 3rd down. They get to the 1-yard line. Then, Brady hits Hernandez for a 1-yard TD pass. Here are their stats for the drive:

Welker - 5 rec, 51 yds, 4 first downs
Hernandez - 1 rec, 1 yd, 1 TD

Which receiver was more productive?

 

[Double TE]

2011

Eric Decker: 9TD's
Wes Welker: 9TD's

Funny. Wasn't someone talking about Decker earlier

Sigh...that was me and you had to bring that up. Now Ivan will call me an ignorant fool again or something like that.

 

[D-Money]

I would sign him because thats all they have at wr in my view.LLoyd has been a dissapointment.

 

[manxman2601]

Sigh...that was me and you had to bring that up. Now Ivan will call me an ignorant fool again or something like that.

I know. Just poking the fire.

 

[PatsDeb]

After being almost invisible the first two games of the year, Welker is on pace for 123 receptions and 1419 yards.

Franchise him again?
Sign him to a 2-3 year extension?
Trade him? (I do wonder what they could get for him)

I have been upset since last year that they haven't signed Wes. What the heck were they thinking? Pay the man. He's shown that he's irreplaceable in our offense as currently constituted. Let him and Brady play together a few more years. If they had given him a deal last year they wouldn't have had to pay him on a franchise tag or worry about having to do so again.

Don't give me the Edelman can replace him argument. 1) Edelman HAS improved tremendously this year, but he isn't the same player as Welker, like many thought he was. When Mickey D finally figured that out and started playing them together, instead of trying to substitute Edelman for Welker, look what happened to both of them - fabulous play! 2) Despite the fact that he is older and had a major knee injury, Welker is more durable than Edelman (and Gronk and Hernandez for that matter).

Don't give me the "we are replacing our Welker-centric O with our fabulous TE-centric O." Welker clearly complements the TE-centric O, and where would we be without him this year with both Gronk & Hernandez going down for extended periods of time? Sheesh. I think the Pats have misplayed the Welker situation, and now it's going to cost them even more.

 

[Double TE]

Why are TD receptions a better indicator of production than, say, receptions or yards receiving? Picture this drive: Pats go 87 yards in 12 plays. On the drive, Welker catches 5 passes for 51 yards, including 4 for 1st downs, three of which were on 3rd down. They get to the 1-yard line. Then, Brady hits Hernandez for a 1-yard TD pass. Here are their stats for the drive:

Welker - 5 rec, 51 yds, 4 first downs
Hernandez - 1 rec, 1 yd, 1 TD

Which receiver was more productive?

AH unless its a PPR then Welker...oh you mean real football not fantasy? Sorry.