I think it's a little early to call the final score on this trade, but it sure looks good for the Patriots now. Butler looks like a #1 corner in the making, Edelman looks like a #3 receiver at worst, and if you get anything at all from Tate and this year's second, it's a decisive win trade for the Pats. Matthews is a good player, don't get me wrong, but it's hard to argue that this was a really dumb trade.
At the time of the trade I thought it was an odd deal -- it seemed like a fifth was too cheap a price to move down three spots -- but then I thought the deals they got from Baltimore and Jacksonville were outstanding. This could still turn out to be a historically good series of moves for the team. Butler has the ability to be an impact corner, and Edelman could still be more than a #3 or #4 receiver. If his career lands somewhere between Kevin Walter (another 7th-round pick) and Wes Welker, which to me seems likely, this turns into a good deal for the Pats even before you figure in Tate and this year's #2.
If Butler regresses and Tate stays injured and this year's pick misses, then yes, this is a bad trade. But I think it's more likely that Butler and Edelman will be productive players through their rookie deals and one of either Tate or this year's pick will be, too. If you get three real contributors out of any draft, you're doing well, much less out of any one pick.
People are jumping the gun about last year's draft. If Brace is a miss, there's no doubt that will suck. Had he been a better player, who knows what might have happened -- maybe the Pats let Wilfork go and sign Julius Peppers. But the rest of the draft looks pretty good to me. On a team that already had three starting-caliber safeties, Chung got in all 16 games and made 37 tackles; he had a better rookie year than Meriweather. Butler comes into this year a starter. Vollmer almost makes last year's draft a success all by itself. Ingram, Edelman and Pryor look likely to stick on the roster through their rookie deals.
What's hanging people up is the quantity of picks we had. If someone had told you in 2008 that the Pats would come out of the 2009 draft with a starting left tackle and a starting corner, two solid rotation players at wideout and safety, a rotational defensive tackle to replace Jarvis Green, a long snapper, and two #2 draft picks, you'd be thrilled. And that's before we even think about the possibility of Tate and/or Tyrone McKenzie panning out.
So objectively speaking, it was an excellent draft. What makes it seem meh is the big miss on Brace and the weird Bussey and Ohrnberger picks, which recall the throwaway choices on guys like Kareem Brown. But we should come back in two or three years to talk about this one, because depending on what happens with Tate, McKenzie, and the two #2s this year, it could end up being not just a good draft but a great one. of course they needed it, after sucking for the 2007-2008 drafts, but it sure looks pretty good to me.
