What do you think is holding up the Welker signing?

[Deus Irae]

No, you were the one who went on about the need for Welker's 122 catches being redistributed, which they dont need to be in order for total offensive production to remain constant.

No, I wasn't:

Welker is a talented player...no doubt.

But those numbers could easily be replaced by Branch, Gronkowski, Hernandez in the middle of the field.

The design of the system allowed Welker or Hernandez or Gronk (one of them) to be open on picks, rubs, seams, and crossing routes 15 yards inside the numbers.

The system and Brady's accuracy has much to do with Welker's numbers.

Note that this post by Elijah T came before my response asking him to divvy up those catches that he specifically said could be replaced by the trio of Branch, Gronkowski and Hernandez, and note that he was very specifically talking about the numbers.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/898622-what-do-you-think-holding-up-welker-signing-page2.html

So, what we have here is you not bothering to read posts before jumping in to the discussions.

 

[ivanvamp]

Jumping into the deep end here...

In 2010, Tom Brady completed 324 passes for 3900 yds and 36 TD. The Pats scored 518 points that year.

In 2011, Tom Brady completed 401 passes for 5235 yds and 39 TD. The Pats scored 513 points that year.

The Pats certainly do not *need* Brady to complete ~400 passes for them to score 500+ points. Not at all. They can go about it differently. There's more than one way to skin a cat. They can get better on defense (which we're all hoping, and expecting, they will). They can run the ball better (1973 rush yds in 2010, vs. 1764 in 2011, for example). They can get better special teams.

The point is this: if they don't choose to retain Wes Welker, they don't *need* to re-apportion his 122 catches. Maybe Brady doesn't quite throw as much. Maybe he only throws enough to complete 70 of those 122, but Ridley, Woodhead, and BJGE run 50 more times. Who knows? Maybe Welker goes but they get a deep threat here and Brady gets more yards per pass play and thus doesn't need to complete the same number of passes to get the same number of yards and points.

What they need to have is a good offense that moves the ball and scores points. With Welker, obviously they have that. With Welker + a guy like Meacham or Wayne or Lloyd, they're even more likely to have that. But even without Welker, they're *still* likely to have that. In 2004 they averaged 27+ ppg with Brady completing just 288 passes. How did they do that? By running Corey Dillon down peoples' throats (1635 yds, 12 td).

 

[Elijah T.]

No, you were the one who went on about the need for Welker's 122 catches being redistributed, which they dont need to be in order for total offensive production to remain constant.

This was the point I was trying to make yesterday.

I said in a post that Welker's numbers could be replaced...My point was the effect of those numbers (inside catches under 20 yards), not the literal statistical output...Why do we need two tight ends and a slot receiver to catch 200 balls in our offense inside the numbers under 20 yards???

I don't think anyone is debating Welker's ability or importance to the offense in 2011...Everyone knows he's a great slot receiver.

But how much is that worth when we have players that can threaten the same area of the field just as effectively?? In my opinion, not 8 or 9 million dollars.

Using stats to justify Welker's value in comparison to Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, C. Johnson, 2002 Terrell Owens, 1988 Jerry Rice, or 1984 Art Monk is completely misplaced- they're not even the same type of player. Different roles, physical ability, and options to an offense.

Wes Welker is pretty much what Wayne Chrebet would've been had he played with arguably the greatest quarterback of all time.

I just don't see how the team can afford to pay Welker, add a proven outside receiver (Colston, Lloyd, Wayne, Bowe, V.Jackson), re-sign our neccessary free agents, add valuable veteran help on defense, sign our draft picks and have it all keep the cap balanced enough to not interfere with the ability to re-sign Hernandez and Gronkowski..

If we can make all that happen without consequence then I'm all for paying Welker 9 million a year.

 

[Deus Irae]

This was the point I was trying to make yesterday.

I said in a post that Welker's numbers could be replaced...My point was the effect of those numbers (inside catches under 20 yards), not the literal statistical output...Why do we need two tight ends and a slot receiver to catch 200 balls in our offense inside the numbers under 20 yards???...

Not this again....

You made a specific argument, specifically referring to Welker's catches and then specifically referring to his numbers in the same post. When you got called on it, you changed your argument from the concrete (catches, numbers) to the mythical and unmeasurable (effect). Pretending otherwise after the fact doesn't change what you posted.

 

[Elijah T.]

Not this again....

You made a specific argument, specifically referring to Welker's catches and then specifically referring to his numbers in the same post. When you got called on it, you changed your argument from the concrete (catches, numbers) to the mythical and unmeasurable (effect). Pretending otherwise after the fact doesn't change what you posted.

Go back to my first post...Very first in this thread... Then follow the trail.

My issue has never been about numbers, it's been about what Welker can't do, namely run the back half of the route tree (deep out, deep comeback, deep post, go) or beat physical man-coverage down the sideline.

That has always been my issue with paying Welker like an "X receiver" at 31 years old.

I could care less about stats... There's many ways to replace numbers and still score points and win... With or without Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

Go back to my first post...Very first in this thread... Then follow the trail.

My issue has never been about numbers, it's been about what Welker can't do, namely run the back half of the route tree (deep out, deep comeback, deep post, go) or beat physical man-coverage down the sideline.

That has always been my issue with paying Welker like an "X receiver" at 31 years old.

I could care less about stats... There's many ways to replace numbers and still score points and win... With or without Welker.

I followed the trail before I made my initial response to you. It was irrelevant to the point I made and your responses to that point. What's really too bad is that both this thread and the Grist for the mill thread have people making a very small kernel argument that has at least a sliver of legitimacy and blowing those arguments up into mountains of ridiculousness.

As to this thread, Welker has been the most productive wide receiver in the NFL over the past 5 years: not the best, but the most productive. That's just the way it is, and it's stupid to say that such production isn't worth the cost of the franchise tag, because it obviously is worth it.

There's at least a debatable question as to whether going out and doing something like signing the likes of Danny Amendola and a deep-middle threat (Lloyd/Johnson/etc...) for similar combined money would be possible and an overall upgrade, or even in allowing the offense to take a serious hit by letting Welker go and spending all the money on defensive improvements, but that's lost in the inanity of the attempts to minimize Welker and his play/impact, which is what your initial post was and many of your follow up posts have been.

 

[Elijah T.]

I followed the trail before I made my initial response to you. It was irrelevant to the point I made and your responses to that point. What's really too bad is that both this thread and the Grist for the mill thread have people making a very small kernel argument that has at least a sliver of legitimacy and blowing those arguments up into mountains of ridiculousness.

As to this thread, Welker has been the most productive wide receiver in the NFL over the past 5 years: not the best, but the most productive. That's just the way it is, and it's stupid to say that such production isn't worth the cost of the franchise tag, because it obviously is worth it.

There's a legitimate and debatable question as to whether going out and doing something like signing the likes of Danny Amendola and a deep-middle threat (Lloyd/Johnson/etc...) for similar combined money would be possible and an overall upgrade, or even in allowing the offense to take a serious hit by letting Welker go and spending all the money on defensive improvements, but that's lost in the inanity of the attempts to minimize Welker and his play/impact.

Ok.

And that's a decision BB and Caserio will have to make.

The only reason I brought up numbers was in response to eom (poster) who posted 120 catches 1,200 yards (as to why Welker couldn't be replaced)...So I said those numbers could easily be replaced-- because the system created plenty of those numbers.. Whether those numbers would come from Gronkowski, Hernandez, Branch, Edelman, New WR, RB or whomever, that those numbers could be replaced in this system with Brady's accuracy.

That was point I was trying to make, even if it didn't come off as clear on the keyboard.

However it works out won't surprise me. BB will do what he thinks is best for the team.

 

[robbomango]

I wouldn’t knock Welkers size to hard, at 5’9”. He can produce shorter, quicker, strides with a low center of gravity to maintain better balance while cutting better than a 6’4” gazelle. He's a work horse that goes all out every play, not easy to replace imo.

Not sure how removing Wes would effect Gronk and AH's production, that trio creates a pretty complex middle game. I wouldn't want to simplify it personally.

A receiver like Wayne, Colston or Lloyde that can work the intermediate to deep field would be a great compliment as others have noted.

Side note: BB should've done the Ocho experiment on Madden:singing:

 

[Boomer B]

There is a lot that goes into the re-signing of Welker. The main question is what does the Pats offence look like going forward? If we maintain what we have been doing (throwing the ball +35x per game, mostly shorter throws, and no deep threat) then we must re-sign Welker. We will need his 110+ catches per year, even if he costs us $8 -$9 mil per year.

Now, what if Belichick wants to modify the offence? Brady will be 35 next season. Do we throw 38x per game like we did this year? I would think running the ball more and having Brady throw 33x per game will help keep him healthy. Also, does Bill see the need for an outside threat like most other people do? If so, that outside WR will catch more balls then the ones we had the last few years.

If we average 33 throws per game that's 528 per season. At a 65% completion rate that would be 344 completed passes.

My assumption is that:

- Gronk/Hernandez : 155 completions
- RB's : 25 completions
- Outside WR: 65 completions
- Other WR's: 15 completions

If Bill wants better production from his Outside WR and doesn't want Brady throwing as much as he gets older, this will leave about 85 receptions for Wes Welker. Of course there could be injuries and others may not produce, but I don't think we'll be seeing Welker get over 100 catches if we do modify the offence.

My conclusion is this:

1) If we stay with the offence as is we must re-sign him, even if it costs $8 -$9 mil per season.

2) If we modify our offence and he isn't going to get 100+ catches, then $6 - $7 mil per season should be our best offer.

At the end of the day, only Belichick knows what our offence will look like in 2012 and beyond. I do hope that they can re-sign him and Wes Welker retires a Patriot.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

The numbers are undeniable, and you could go on about who might put up those numbers if Welker wasn't there until the cows come home. You're still arguing the unknown against the known quantity. Welker is also a heck of a blocker for the part.

Who would sign Welker if we didn't? Who's really going to commit 30 mil to a player who relies so much on quickness and is 31?

 

[doesntmatter1]

The numbers are undeniable, and you could go on about who might put up those numbers if Welker wasn't there until the cows come home. You're still arguing the unknown against the known quantity. Welker is also a heck of a blocker for the part.

Who would sign Welker if we didn't? Who's really going to commit 30 mil to a player who relies so much on quickness and is 31?

I thought like this as well and then it hit me. The Jets. It would make a ton of sense because it would drastically weaken us and give marky a security blanket. If they were serious about winning a division for once, this is something they would have to give thought.

 

[ivanvamp]

I thought like this as well and then it hit me. The Jets. It would make a ton of sense because it would drastically weaken us and give marky a security blanket. If they were serious about winning a division for once, this is something they would have to give thought.

From a football perspective, it would make sense. But they are already committed to Santonio Holmes for about $9 million (if I read the numbers right). Will they tie up another $9 million in a second WR? I don't know. They aren't in good cap shape and that kind of investment seems like it could be better used elsewhere.

But it's the Jets. Who knows?

 

[SeymourTrophies]

The Jets' issues are with the guy throwing the ball, not the ones catching it. They're already old in the receiving core, have cap issues, and if they're going to keep Sanchez, they've got to get that defense back to being incredible to make up for the offense.

To pay that kind of money for Welker, you'd have to throw the ball a whole lot. The jets don't do that, at least not well. All of the other big passing teams have their guys who can work the short to medium middle of the field (Saints, Pack, Giants, etc.) . The panthers, lions, and texans could use an underneath type, but they're tight on cap space or up to their eyeballs while having bigger fish to fry.

Then again, the Jets are the Jets. Abandoning the need to revamp the D is not out of the question.

In other news, after watching some SB highlights on YouTube, I learned that using all caps in your posts makes you seem more intelligent. If you pair all caps with the excessive use of LOL, you win any argument by default and by no means look ******ed. I should probably try that.

 

[Ivan]

Great line from the movie, Moneyball. Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) is there in a meeting discussing prospects. One scout says of a guy, "He is a good hitter." Beane then says, "If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?"

Welker seems like the opposite. He doesn't look like an NFL player. He doesn't fit the mold of a great WR. But he is. He is a GREAT wide receiver. No, he's not as great as Megatron or Moss/Rice in their primes. I'd rather have a handful of guys over him (Megatron, Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald come to mind), but he is great nonetheless.

I mean, look at this season: 122 rec, 1569 yds, 9 td. That's a tremendously good season.

Reggie Wayne at his best was someone I'd consider to be a great wide receiver, but his best year was this: 104 rec, 1510 yds, 10 td.

Fitzgerald's best year: 97 rec, 1092 yds, 13 td (or maybe it was 100 rec, 1409 yds, 10 td....tough to say).

Andre Johnson's best year: 115 rec, 1575 yds, 8 td.

The point is that Welker's 2011 season stacks up against the best years by some of the NFL's best receivers. Dude is great, period.

Yep, which is why the insistence of the critics that he can't do this and he can't do that and he's too short, too slow, and "limits the offense....." is so absurd and so patently wrong. The same claims have been made throughout his career and all he does is prove them wrong every season yet they come back with same claims as though they are valid every offseason.

I have a question, where else does the claim that Welker cannot run all these routes come from (he can't run the deep out, the deep post, the go route...") if not from Madden? The people making these claims don't watch coaches tape and I am pretty much certain that Welker can actually run any route the Patriots ask him to they just choose to use him in certain ways that have others running the outside routes more often than not. So I am pretty sure it is because they can't use him that way in Madden that they are making these claims, but since i have never played it I really can't say for certain. Are they conflating Madden with real football, yet again, or do the posters here have access to the coaches film and they study it at home for 40 hours a week?


As I said to a poster who refused to answer earlier in this thread if you made the claim that Welker can't run all these routes to Belichick or Brady they would laugh you out of the room while looking at you as though are crazy as hell. Simply put, the people making these claims don't know what the hell they are talking about and are pretending Madden is reall football.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yep, which is why the insistence of the critics that he can't do this and he can't do that and he's too short, too slow, and "limits the offense....." is so absurd and so patently wrong. The same claims have been made throughout his career and all he does is prove them wrong every season yet they come back with same claims as though they are valid every offseason.

I have a question, where else does the claim that Welker cannot run all these routes come from (he can't run the deep out, the deep post, the go route...") if not from Madden? The people making these claims don't watch coaches tape and I am pretty much certain that Welker can actually run any route the Patriots ask him to they just choose to use him in certain ways that have others running the outside routes more often than not. So I am pretty sure it is because they can't use him that way in Madden that they are making these claims, but since i have never played it I really can't say for certain. Are they conflating Madden with real football, yet again, or do the posters here have access to the coaches film and they study it at home for 40 hours a week?


As I said to a poster who refused to answer earlier in this thread if you made the claim that Welker can't run all these routes to Belichick or Brady they would laugh you out of the room while looking at you as though are crazy as hell. Simply put, the people making these claims don't know what the hell they are talking about and are pretending Madden is reall football.

Well, Kyle Love could run all the routes. He just couldn't run them very fast. Wes Welker is incredibly quick, but he is not particularly fast. He doesn't have breakaway speed. If he tried a simple go-route on a guy like McCourty, it's almost certain he wouldn't get separation. But because he's jitterbug-quick, he is almost uncoverable on those shorter routes. So, that's why the Pats use him there....just using his strengths and not asking him to do something that isn't a strength.

Now, from time to time, as a surprise, they'll have him go deep, and occasionally it works - but that's generally on a blown coverage or something like that. He just doesn't outrun guys.

Even on the 99-yarder, he got by Sapp, but Sapp quickly closed the gap, and Welker broke free because of a great stiff arm, not because of his blazing speed.

So Welker is indeed a great NFL wide receiver, but his best work (maximizing his particular skill set) is done in small spaces.

 

[Elijah T.]

Hey Ivan (Mr. Football),

I had some questions. Your experience and thorough personal experience is quite obvious by your unbiased and professional level forum posting. Please help with my football questions., as it has become clear that you are a student of the game. Both historically and technically.

Please help me.

What is a route tree?

How many routes are there on a standard route tree?

How many routes are there per area of the field? (shallow, intermediate, deep)

Do tight ends run a different route tree than wide receivers? What are their routes? What is the difference in depth?

What is a stem on a route?

What is the difference between a split end and flanker?

Thanks for help.

I'll check back later. As I have 35 games of Madden to finish playing.

Thanks,
Elijah T.

 

[Ivan]

Well, Kyle Love could run all the routes. He just couldn't run them very fast. Wes Welker is incredibly quick, but he is not particularly fast. He doesn't have breakaway speed. If he tried a simple go-route on a guy like McCourty, it's almost certain he wouldn't get separation. But because he's jitterbug-quick, he is almost uncoverable on those shorter routes. So, that's why the Pats use him there....just using his strengths and not asking him to do something that isn't a strength.

Now, from time to time, as a surprise, they'll have him go deep, and occasionally it works - but that's generally on a blown coverage or something like that. He just doesn't outrun guys.

Even on the 99-yarder, he got by Sapp, but Sapp quickly closed the gap, and Welker broke free because of a great stiff arm, not because of his blazing speed.

So Welker is indeed a great NFL wide receiver, but his best work (maximizing his particular skill set) is done in small spaces.

I agree with this, however my question was somewhat different and had to do with where people came up with the idea he couldn't run these routes, and I believe it is Madden, they conflate it with the real thing.

I have never seen any of these posters make the same claims about their free agent binkies even though I have no doubt that Larry Fitzgerald doesn't spend much time running the routes Welker does. They don't say he can't run them, in fact they don't bring it up at all.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Even on the 99-yarder, he got by Sapp, but Sapp quickly closed the gap, and Welker broke free because of a great stiff arm, not because of his blazing speed.

And his 73-yarder where Revis barely made the tackle in time to prevent a TD was the result of his (and GRONK's) blocking ability.

They use Welker as a downfield blocker (and GRONK as a wham blocker) often enough that on that play, the JEST defense saw run and bit hard.

 

[ivanvamp]

I agree with this, however my question was somewhat different and had to do with where people came up with the idea he couldn't run these routes, and I believe it is Madden, they conflate it with the real thing.

I have never seen any of these posters make the same claims about their free agent binkies even though I have no doubt that Larry Fitzgerald doesn't spend much time running the routes Welker does. They don't say he can't run them, in fact they don't bring it up at all.

Ok. I'm not interested in all that other stuff. I'm just interested in how the Patriots are going to get better.

I think Welker is a very, very valuable piece. He is a great fit for this team and he obviously has tremendous chemistry with Brady. He's tough as nails and *usually* comes up with the big catch.

I also think, because there's a real glut of talented WRs on the market, that his price might not be super high. I would be fine with a 2-year deal for between $7-8 million a year. I don't think I would pay more than that for a multi-year deal. I guess I could live with a one-year franchise deal at $9 million.

I think they really could use a more traditional quality deep threat though. I've suggested that if he truly is healthy and properly motivated and is really running a 4.4 40, then Moss could be helpful. But I totally understand why that probably is a non-starter. My next best choice would be Lloyd, for many reasons that I've stated before.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

To answer the OP's original question, Wes has likely been in mourning for the missed ring. The team has been busy doing it's end of the season evaluations and prepping for the combine.

Wes has now resurfaced and he still believes he has fans here... And we know he does beyond the fantasy and video knuckleheads, including in the FO because the guy who owns the team and that QB guy who actually has to play the game on the field (and has never wasted time playing video games) have told us so. I assume he will get the non exclusive tag shortly so that both he and the team can gauge his wider market in a deep FA class and insure he remains a Patriot for at least another season either way.

Wes Welker@WesWelkerReply


I would like to thank all of my fans for your love and support. I looked outside and the sun came out. #vacationtime