Welcome to the New England Patriots Geneo Grissom

[mgteich]

Every year we see it here. Most of the people here watch Kiper the night of the draft and base their judgement of the draft on what he says, or some hack who works for some other sports source, probably making $35k a year. If they were any good they would be working for the NFL making huge money, but they aren't. Then when BB picks someone at a different point than Mel has him going we get to listen to people whine and complain for weeks about how stupid BB is, and how he is trying to screw over the Patriots, and how he is an awful GM, and how Brady bails him out year after year. These people very rarely watch college games, have no access to game films, and don't have a clue how those players are, basing their complete and total judgement on 3 minutes of highlights and Mel Kiper's list.

It just gets old and repetitive. Of course for the last 9 years we had to listen to, well obviously BB is an awful GM, they haven't won a superbowl since 2004, at least that has changed to 2015 now.

QUESTION
If every media source, and every scouting service had Richards as a 5th rounder, would it be reasonable for belichick to draft Richards in the 2nd? Or might it make more sense to wait until the 3rd or 4th?

Note, I am NOT questioning Belichick's board at all. It just seems that Richards could have been drafted in the 3rd or 4th. And yes, more than one analyst has suggested that we simply switch the choices when we analyze.

For example, would the patriots be any different if the players were drafted as follows? Of course, Richards and Grissom would still be considered a bit of a reach.

32 Brown
64 Jackson
97 Flowers
101 Mason
111 Richards
131 Grissom

166 ****son
177 Roberts
202 Wells
247 Cardona
253 Derby

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

QUESTION
If every media source, and every scouting service had Richards as a 5th rounder, would it be reasonable for belichick to draft Richards in the 2nd? Or might it make more sense to wait until the 3rd or 4th?

Note, I am NOT questioning Belichick's board at all. It just seems that Richards could have been drafted in the 3rd or 4th. And yes, more than one analyst has suggested that we simply switch the choices when we analyze.

If the Pats went by other draft outlets then iyes, I am sure they might have waited to draft Richards. However, the Pats don't use these other outlets and, obviously, had Richards rated as a 2nd rounder.

 

[mgteich]

If the Pats went by other draft outlets then iyes, I am sure they might have waited to draft Richards. However, the Pats don't use these other outlets and, obviously, had Richards rated as a 2nd rounder.

I have ZERO issue with Belichick's evaluation of Richards as a being worth a 2nd round pick. The open question is his evaluation of other GM's. Or are you saying that Belichick would draft someone in the 2nd even if he knew that no one else would have any interest before the late 4th?

There are TWO sets of relevant evaluations needed for the draft. A GM has to have his own board of value to the team. A GM also needs to know when others are likely to draft a player. Strictly speaking, Belichick could operate without caring about other teams. It would seem that much value would be lost with that approach.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I have ZERO issue with Belichick's evaluation of Richards as a being worth a 2nd round pick. The open question is his evaluation of other GM's. Or are you saying that Belichick would draft someone in the 2nd even if he knew that no one else would have any interest before the late 4th?

There are TWO sets of relevant evaluations needed for the draft. A GM has to have his own board of value to the team. A GM also needs to know when others are likely to draft a player. Strictly speaking, Belichick could operate without caring about other teams. It would seem that much value would be lost with that approach.

You nailed it. The Patriots weigh attributes differently than other teams- in both directions. A 5th rounder for them could be a 2nd rounder for the Cowboys and vice versa.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I have ZERO issue with Belichick's evaluation of Richards as a being worth a 2nd round pick. The open question is his evaluation of other GM's. Or are you saying that Belichick would draft someone in the 2nd even if he knew that no one else would have any interest before the late 4th?

There are TWO sets of relevant evaluations needed for the draft. A GM has to have his own board of value to the team. A GM also needs to know when others are likely to draft a player. Strictly speaking, Belichick could operate without caring about other teams. It would seem that much value would be lost with that approach.

I'm sure BB has some idea about how his ratings might compare to others but, in the end, I can't imagine he'd risk losing out on his board value player no matter what he thinks some other team might possibly do. That's why he eschews the other outlet ratings system in favour of his own.

 

[mgteich]

I'm sure BB has some idea about how his ratings might compare to others but, in the end, I can't imagine he'd risk losing out on his board value player no matter what he thinks some other team might possibly do. That's why he eschews the other outlet ratings system in favour of his own.

These are two VERY EXTREME cases. What we are saying is the Belichick only consider the ratings of others if he is afraid that they might snap up one his board players. In that case, he would need to trade up.

However, if Belichick comes to 64 and his only board players are rated in the 5th or 6th round by others, he simply ignores these ratings. In this set of protocols, Belichick would only trade down if there were no board players there, or if there were so many that he thought that he'd get one by trading down.

THE GIVEN CASES
Belichick valued Richards and Grisson higher than Flowers, and almost every player on the board of others for the 2nd-4th rounds. He didn't draft a guard because he was confident of getting a guard in the 4th.

Of course, this is inconsistent because there was a real chance of missing on Flowers or a similar quality guard if he waited until 111. There was little chance of missing on Richards and Grissom.

CONCLUSIONS
All that matter are Belichick's rules and the kind of players that he has drafted in the past: Belichick type players. Belichick has made it clear that he would rather draft a player four rounds early that take a chance on a talent that others project as immediate starters. Players like Cann and Fisher just had no place on the patriots.

 

[50-yard-line]

QUESTION
If every media source, and every scouting service had Richards as a 5th rounder, would it be reasonable for belichick to draft Richards in the 2nd? Or might it make more sense to wait until the 3rd or 4th?

No safeties were taken in the next 40 picks after Richards. If BB felt that wouldn't be the case with Richards on the board, but that Jackson, Flowers, Mason, et al (or someone he liked as much at their respective positions) would be, then he was right to take Richards when he did.

It's a guessing game, right? Maybe he's got 3 guards fairly evenly rated still on his board, and several DEs, but only one safety: Richards. In that case, take the safety.

 

[Ross12]

In regards to Richards, I think this is simply a case of BB really specifically wanting this one player and rating him very highly when his intangibles are taken into account. It's a reach looking at it from our perspective, but it's possible that BB just did not want to take a chance that anyone else would steal Richards, so he took him at 64. Similar logic could be applied to Grissom, and certainly to Cardona, being that he plays a position that is almost never drafted at all but got taken in the 5th... BB targeting certain players in some instances, and then otherwise maximizing his picks to take what he can get at positions he wants to fill (OG, DE).

 

[Ross12]

Regarding Grissom, after reviewing some info and video on him, I'm really loving the pick. The measurables are okay, but he's just got football instincts you can't teach IMO. Besides Brown, Grissom is likely my favorite pick of this draft. I think he can develop into a really nice piece down the line.

 

[RobertWeathers]

CONCLUSIONS
All that matter are Belichick's rules and the kind of players that he has drafted in the past: Belichick type players. Belichick has made it clear that he would rather draft a player four rounds early that take a chance on a talent that others project as immediate starters. Players like Cann and Fisher just had no place on the patriots.

Not sure follow what you mean here, mgteich.

 

[Ivan]

I have ZERO issue with Belichick's evaluation of Richards as a being worth a 2nd round pick. The open question is his evaluation of other GM's. Or are you saying that Belichick would draft someone in the 2nd even if he knew that no one else would have any interest before the late 4th?

There are TWO sets of relevant evaluations needed for the draft. A GM has to have his own board of value to the team. A GM also needs to know when others are likely to draft a player. Strictly speaking, Belichick could operate without caring about other teams. It would seem that much value would be lost with that approach.

Belichick has been getting interior OL he was targeting in the fourth round despite draft rankings that had some higher ( Tre Jackson), so my bet would be that he has a very good idea where players will go and who might want them.

 

[mgteich]

Belichick has been getting interior OL he was targeting in the fourth round despite draft rankings that had some higher ( Tre Jackson), so my bet would be that he has a very good idea where players will go and who might want them.

Which is more likely?
Richards being picked by someone before 97 (the next available spot)
Grissom being picked by someone else before 101 (the next available spot)
Jackson being picked by someone else before 111.

My point is that belichick took much more risk with regards to Jackson than with regard to the other two.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure follow what you mean here, mgteich.

Belichick has his rules like a one position interior lineman isn't worth picking in the 1st or 2nd. (Mankins was a LT.

Belichick has a very short draft board.

Apparently, he pays almost no attention to those players not on his board, except perhaps as bait for trading with others.

So, unless there is no trade, Belichick just picks form his board. The list of top players NOT on his board is very large indeed.

Apparently, Belichick just had little use for players like Fisher or Cann (or lots of others). For example, it seems likely that he could have drafted an OL at 64 instead of Mason at 131 and had the same players.

 

[Oswlek]

I have ZERO issue with Belichick's evaluation of Richards as a being worth a 2nd round pick. The open question is his evaluation of other GM's. Or are you saying that Belichick would draft someone in the 2nd even if he knew that no one else would have any interest before the late 4th?

There are TWO sets of relevant evaluations needed for the draft. A GM has to have his own board of value to the team. A GM also needs to know when others are likely to draft a player. Strictly speaking, Belichick could operate without caring about other teams. It would seem that much value would be lost with that approach.

You can't separate the two. Without asking Bill directly, there is no way to discern between disregard for other teams' draft boards and him just deciding that Richards is too good a prospect to pass up. There is also the possibility that Bill selected him not due to inattention, but the opposite; that he knew some other team was likely to take him before #97.

 

[mgteich]

You can't separate the two. Without asking Bill directly, there is no way to discern between disregard for other teams' draft boards and him just deciding that Richards is too good a prospect to pass up. There is also the possibility that Bill selected him not due to inattention, but the opposite; that he knew some other team was likely to take him before #97.

Yes, it is possible that someone would have picked Richards before 97, and Grissom before 111. It just seems very unlikely.

But, as so many have said, the easiest way for us to come to terms with the draft is to presume that Jackson was drafted at 64 and Richards at 111.

 

[Oswlek]

Yes, it is possible that someone would have picked Richards before 97, and Grissom before 111. It just seems very unlikely.

It may be, but I'm not seeing the link between that possibility and statements like this:

Apparently, he pays almost no attention to those players not on his board, except perhaps as bait for trading with others.

 

[Danger Zone]

Yes, it is possible that someone would have picked Richards before 97, and Grissom before 111. It just seems very unlikely.

But, as so many have said, the easiest way for us to come to terms with the draft is to presume that Jackson was drafted at 64 and Richards at 111.

When you are trying to find a steal in the draft, or even simply working at your own tune, wouldn't it only take knowing one other team was showing the same signs of interest as you are?

You go scout a kid.

And as you do so, you see or hear about scouts from Baltimore and the Giants showing a similar level of interest.

Your internal scouting program rates the kid as worth the 64th pick.

What do you do?

 

[mgteich]

When you are trying to find a steal in the draft, or even simply working at your own tune, wouldn't it only take knowing one other team was showing the same signs of interest as you are?

You go scout a kid.

And as you do so, you see or hear about scouts from Baltimore and the Giants showing a similar level of interest.

Your internal scouting program rates the kid as worth the 64th pick.

What do you do?

What I would do, if I were other teams, is to show interest in any player that the patriots show interest in. That way, Belichick will might pick a player 3 rounds earlier than he needed to.

 

[Danger Zone]

What I would do, if I were other teams, is to show interest in any player that the patriots show interest in. That way, Belichick will might pick a player 3 rounds earlier than he needed to.

I need to read these mock drafts you and others put such great stock in.

I hadn't realized they were so accurate going back into the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds.

Who knew, predicting the future was so easy and so reliable?

 

[mgteich]

I need to read these mock drafts you and others put such great stock in.

I hadn't realized they were so accurate going back into the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds.

Who knew, predicting the future was so easy and so reliable?

You are free to believe that the scouting services available to other teams and to some of the media ALL produce nonsense on a regular basis. Obviously, some players end up being drafted higher or lower than predicted. Often this is due to team interviews with players.

Apparently, we should NOT consider Belichick a master when he find nuggets in the late round. After all, these are really MISSES for Belichick, since if he really thought that these players had promise, he would have drafted them earlier.
====================
In the end, everyone is free to look at results. For example, we can look at all the defensive backs that the Belichick has drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and those drafted by other top teams. We can also look at the "ratings" that the media put on those players. I guess that since the patriots have won more than anyone, I should expect to see that when Belichick "reached", that is, chose a player higher than his rating would dictate, that Belichick was right.

I'll wait while folks find this list of defensive backs that Belichick has reached on and SHOWN THEM by making them pro bowlers.

We've been to this rodeo before. This was a terrible draft for defensive backs, and Belichick did well by getting one that projects to being a solid backup and special teamer. And just BTW, I'm OK with that result.