Vegas is keeping the line -3 for Pats despite..

[deroc5050]

According to some media members the money is coming in on the Patriots -3 over 65% of the money. So I wonder why isn't Vegas moving the line up? Vegas is daring people to throw down money on the Pats? Or am I missing something? I am not a gambler I just find it odd how they haven't moved the line.

Does Vegas see an upset occuring?

 

[TheBeers]

Vegas' goal is to have the money come in evenly on both sides. It's why they juice the lines or move them when one side is being bet heavily. I don't think these certain media members know sh*t.

 

[jmt57]

According to some media members the money is coming in on the Patriots -3 over 65% of the money. So I wonder why isn't Vegas moving the line up? Vegas is daring people to throw down money on the Pats? Or am I missing something? I am not a gambler I just find it odd how they haven't moved the line.

Does Vegas see an upset occurring?

There is always a lot of money that comes in late, they may be thinking it will even out by game time. Could also be concern over the sharps jumping in on a number the handicappers don't feel as comfortable with. And they could also be worried about the pros middling, and then winning both their earlier (-3) as well as their later (-4½, for example ) wagers.

If 85% of the money was on one side they would have probably moved it. While they strive for 50-50, 65% isn't that unusual, especially for this early in the week.

 

[363839]

I wonder if the fact that the Pats' victories have all been by 3 points, has anything to do with it.
I really hoping we cruising by middle of the 3rd, though/

 

[Patjew]

I am not a gambling expert at all but this makes me nervous. It seems like LV wants people to bet on the Pats (otherwise they'd increase the spread) ... which means that they favor ATL.

And the money usually knows.

Or probably I have no idea what I'm talking about.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

This isn't good... money talks expect the refs to **** us

 

[deroc5050]

I am not a gambling expert at all but this makes me nervous. It seems like LV wants people to bet on the Pats (otherwise they'd increase the spread) ... which means that they favor ATL.

And the money usually knows.

Or probably I have no idea what I'm talking about.

I think this game is by no means a gimme for the Pats, going by the numbers the Pats would seem to have a better over all team especially when considering where there respective defenses rank but, a lot of Atlanta's defensive stats could be skewed because according to Brady they play a lot of prevent because they are up by multiple scores alot.

I hear a lot of people ****ting on Atlanta's defense, I hope they know what they are talking about.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Vegas' goal is to have the money come in evenly on both sides. It's why they juice the lines or move them when one side is being bet heavily. I don't think these certain media members know sh*t.

Just want to say I disagree slightly. Most of the time Vegas just knows. There more than comfortable going in heavy against the public.

 

[BelichickFan]

If the facts are as they're presented (I read an article stating those facts), it is a little weird especially as the Patriots have covered all but three games this year. You'd think they'd be fast to move the spread. I'm not a gambler but I do know the "try to get equal $$$ on each side" is sometimes true but not always. If the books think they can win bigger than that, they will certainly try. That's all I know.

 

[oldrover]

This isn't good... money talks expect the refs to **** us

"Vegas paying off the refs is my last f**king shot against these bastards!! If I have to give that damn trophy to Brady, I'll kill myself!!!! Again!!!!!"

 

[mgcolby]

Vegas' goal is to have the money come in evenly on both sides. It's why they juice the lines or move them when one side is being bet heavily. I don't think these certain media members know sh*t.

That is correct 90% of the time the other 10% is known as reverse line movement. Basically when vegas gambles themselves. When you see 60% of the money on one team and the line either stays static or goes in opposite direction of what would normally happen you know vegas is gambling.

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting

Right now 68% of the cash is on the Pats. But there is a week to go.

 

[deroc5050]

That is correct 90% of the time the other 10% is known as reverse line movement. Basically when vegas gambles themselves. When you see 60% of the money on one team and the line either stays static or goes in opposite direction of what would normally happen you know vegas is gambling.

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting

Right now 68% of the cash is on the Pats. But there is a week to go.

So what your saying is Vegas is gambling that the Falcons are going to at least cover the -3 point spread. Whats odd is before the AFC and NFC championships were played the Pats were favored -7.5 over GB and -7 over Atlanta. After the games the line is at -3 and staying put.

 

[XLIX]

I am not buying the reports that the money is so heavy on the Patriots. If it was, the Vegas books would have shifted the price on the line and so far they aren't doing that.

In other words..... normally you have to bet $110 to win $100. However if the majority of money was coming in on NE, and they didn't want to raise the spread to 3 1/2, they would make it so that you have to bet $120 to win $100 if you take NE (with it being an even $100 to win $100 if you take Atlanta).

So far, according to the line tracking websites I visit, they just aren't doing that.

 

[XLIX]

Just want to say I disagree slightly. Most of the time Vegas just knows. There more than comfortable going in heavy against the public.

Vegas book don't "know" anything regarding the game outcome. There is no consortium of people running the Vegas books all gathered around some table in a smoke filled room saying "ok, boys, let's sucker the public in!!"

It's really nothing more complicated than the fact that they don't want to get middled. They know that if they raise the line to 3 1/2, people will jump on Atlanta and then they would be totally screwed if the Patriots won by exactly 3 because they would have to pay out all those Atlanta bets BUT not be able to keep all the money they collected from everyone betting NE -3.

 

[supafly]

So what your saying is Vegas is gambling that the Falcons are going to at least cover the -3 point spread. Whats odd is before the AFC and NFC championships were played the Pats were favored -7.5 over GB and -7 over Atlanta. After the games the line is at -3 and staying put.

You are forgetting a very key part of NE being favored at -3, and that's the fact that you'd need to put up more than the traditional -110 to bet them.

Typically, you will often find that some favorites will go as high as -135 to -140 even though their number stays the same. Obviously, Vegas would have to adjust the spread to -3.5 if that juice goes much higher.

Ultimately, Vegas seems to be looking to the nice, round number of 3 in order to attract both sides. They'll likely keep it that way as long as possible. Just keep in mind that you won't be winning as much giving the -3 as you would taking the +3.

 

[BTTA]

I am not a gambling expert at all but this makes me nervous. It seems like LV wants people to bet on the Pats (otherwise they'd increase the spread) ... which means that they favor ATL.

And the money usually knows.

Or probably I have no idea what I'm talking about.

PJ, it is clear that you know very well that you don't know what you are talking about. In the current world we are living in, that's absolute certainty.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

You are forgetting a very key part of NE being favored at -3, and that's the fact that you'd need to put up more than the traditional -110 to bet them.

Typically, you will often find that some favorites will go as high as -135 to -140 even though their number stays the same. Obviously, Vegas would have to adjust the spread to -3.5 if that juice goes much higher.

Ultimately, Vegas seems to be looking to the nice, round number of 3 in order to attract both sides. They'll likely keep it that way as long as possible. Just keep in mind that you won't be winning as much giving the -3 as you would taking the +3.

Sup, forgive me, I'm vegas betting line ignoramus outside of the basic point spread. So you're saying the "juice" is, in effect, a shadow spread that applies only to 'pay off factor/amount'. So (at least right now) if I bet 100$ on the -3 Patriots, I'm looking at a lesser payout with the current juice level?

If my paragraph above is correct(???) we should be seeing some money shifting to the Falcons. And why do you think the basic point spread isn't moving but they appear to be using the juice to try and effect how the money is coming in?

 

[Tuck]

There is always a lot of money that comes in late, they may be thinking it will even out by game time. Could also be concern over the sharps jumping in on a number the handicappers don't feel as comfortable with. And they could also be worried about the pros middling, and then winning both their earlier (-3) as well as their later (-4½, for example ) wagers.

If 85% of the money was on one side they would have probably moved it. While they strive for 50-50, 65% isn't that unusual, especially for this early in the week.

Can you explain the part about sharps jumping and pros middling? I want to understand hat your saying but I have no idea what these terms mean.

 

[XLIX]

Sup, forgive me, I'm vegas betting line ignoramus outside of the basic point spread. So you're saying the "juice" is, in effect, a shadow spread that applies only to 'pay off factor/amount'. So (at least right now) if I bet 100$ on the -3 Patriots, I'm looking at a lesser payout with the current juice level?

If my paragraph above is correct(???) we should be seeing some money shifting to the Falcons. And why do you think the basic point spread isn't moving but they appear to be using the juice to try and effect how the money is coming in?

He is right that they will shift the juice to the side where heavy money is coming if they do not want to shift the spread. However, I disagree with his claim that this is actually happening right now.

According to vegasinsider.com, as of 10:00 PM tonight (eastern time), the Westgate, MGM Mirage, Wynn Sportsbook and all the William Hill affiliates all have NE as a 3 point favorite with the standard -110 line in play.

 

[RayClay]

Well, hope the game isn't fixed.