Yes he is worth it, he only led the leauge in interceptions this year, including the one in the postseason he had. Its that the answers are always the same. Whats so hard about going back and looking through the lists of posts and continue adding there. Thats what i do. Ill just bring back a post of the same topic that was already made. Then at least you already have everyones thoughts, and they dont have to write them over, over,over,over, and over again.
Okay, a couple of observations -
1) Interceptions are a Good Thing. They are not, however, what a cornerback does for his bread and butter. A good corner makes a receiver invisible. The very best corner just removes one half of the field from the QB's possibilities. Now I'm not saying anybody truly is that level of CB right now, and I'm not saying Samuel is "bad" at other coverage areas. I am just pointing out the overrated nature of interceptions as a measure of CB efficacy. If all he did was intercept a ball a little more than once every other game, there'd be little point to him being on the field at all.
2) Nevertheless, teams can very easily fall into the trap of magnifying interceptions in their evaluation of a CB. Whenever I hear someone is a "playmaker," I start worrying, because this sort of effect is being emphasized. Now again, I'll state that it's very likely that a guy with a lot of INTs will also likely cover pretty well. But if you're looking for the coverage skills, you have to just play tape over and over and over... something BB and staff are famous for -- studying tape til your eyes bleed, then studying it some more.
3) Given the overvaluation of "playmaker" stats like interceptions, and given the overvaluation of a player's performance in his contract year (an excellent year for Samuel,) it is likely Samuel will be very highly valued in the market.
4) Given his tattoo and his agent's attitude thus far, it seems Samuel is aware of this likelihood, and means to get the maximum possible effect from it, in monetary terms.
5) $11M is 1/10 of $110M. Let's talk single-year here; if Samuel wants really elite CB money, he could very well stake the claim that he should get $11M (on the high end, but not impossible). If you pay one player $11M, the rest of the team, on average, must make about 90% of average pay for their position. If you pay five players 1/10 each of $110M, the rest of the team, on average must make about 50% of average pay for the position. Now, you do have to adjust for the fact that every team has the same decision to make, and every team needs at least
some special players. But even so, the model the Pats have won with says to make elite status a rarity - so far there are two in the club in New England, total. Think about all the Pats -- considering the "club" to be 2 right now, with
perhaps 3 more possible add-ons between now and 2010 (and that is really stretching the model,) do you think Samuel is truly of that caliber? It works about the same way if you're coughing up $8M, by the way.
6) Countervailing point: We
are in a period of rapid cap inflation. This militates for "do the deal now, before it costs even more." But you can use that cap inflation to work out other guys' deals
now, before it gets too expensive. Or, you can just go shopping in the FA market, which may or may not adjust commensurate to the new numbers. Still, you are not obligated to look at the good value of "buy now" when inflation is high, and apply that at every position. You can still use the value rule at the overvalued position(s) and go middle class.
I know I go on and on... but I just don't see CB and WR getting the Pats' attention as they have the rest of the league. Does this mean mediocre secondary play? Yes... it means we can not expect the Pats to ever go to war with the kind of dominant team that just beats the crap out of everybody in their path.
We'll take a lot of good, tough, smart, versatile players with heart, and combine the skills each brings to the table, to create the best possible crew on the field for each game.
The Pats are the first team to realize that the guy with the most toys does not win in the NFL... I hope they do not lose sight of that (and I feel pretty secure they won't.)
PFnV