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"Value" at #7

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, Apr 25, 2008.

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  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Something that's bugging me...

    According to Don Banks and Holley & friends on WEEI, the likeliest scenario for the Pats is to trade with N.O. and draft Jerod Mayo at #10. Yet when the EEI folks were pressed on what the Pats would do if they can't trade down, they were stumped -- because Mayo was obviously out of the question that high, he wouldn't be good value.

    Huh? You think an LB they'd leap on at 10 is unthinkable at 7...when the teams drafting 8 and 9 both need linebackers?

    There's a similar story with Sedrick Ellis. Nobody thinks Atlanta could possibly take him #3 because of value, yet they're projecting teams trading up to #5 to get him!

    It's one thing to take a guy top-5 who should be around a round later, or via a trade down to the 20s. But we're talking a couple of slots. "Not a good value" in that situation looks like a media/fan perception issue -- not something I'd expect BB or his longtime colleague Dimitroff to be driven by.

    (This is not to say that I necessarily believe the Mayo rumors; just that I don't think 7 vs. 10 is such a huge difference.)
     
  2. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's because they are assigning specific draft positions for players, rather than draft ranges. For example, Dorsey will be a 'slider' even if he only falls to the Raiders, under the modern parlance. There's a Clady thread where I point out value with respect to him. He's expected to go somewhere between 5 and 10, yet someone was saying that picking him at #7 was way too early.
     
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Actually, there is a significant difference when you look at last year's contracts for #7 and #10, roughly $25 million. If the Pats thought Albert was capable of playing OT then he would be a better value over Mayo, if not as great a need.

    If not Albert as the default pick, then OT Chris Williams, DL Phillip Merling (he might bulk up if he isn't a LB), DL Kentwan Balmer, RB Rashard Mendenhall, or maybe DL/LB Derrick Harvey may be considered as decent value. If they thought McFadden could work at both WR and RB then he might be worth consideration too, I'm not sure if WR Devin Thomas is worth a #7 on one year's production, but he's an alternative too.

    I'd rather have Mayo or even Rivers, but $25M just seems a steep premium to pay for LBs who are more likely than OL/DL to bust in the NE 3-4.
     
  4. Crazy Patriot Guy

    Crazy Patriot Guy Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I think value is overblown too often. Quick example, go back to the 2001 draft. I remember Dwight Freeney being a "reach" when the Colts took him at #11. He was expected to be a mid to late 1st round pick. Ask a Colts fan now if they'd like to go back and risk not getting him so they could trade down and get an extra pick or two.

    If the Pats can pick up a pro bowler at #7, I don't care in the least if he "should have been there" at #10 or whatever other pick.

    I read an article by Pat Kirwan the other day on nfl.com. He mentioned that when he was with the Jets during the 1991 draft they moved up to the 34th pick ready to take Brett Favre. However, they received bad information on the interest level of the Atlanta Falcons in taking a QB who ended up taking him at 33. The Jets drafted Browning Nagle.

    It sounds great to move down to #10 and maybe get an extra 3rd rounder but what's stopping any team from moving up to #9 to take the player we want?

    I see us trading down only if we have a group of players with similar grades and we're assured that one will still be there. However, if there's one guy we want, Belichick is not going to take the chance.
     
  5. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I do not see one mock draft that has Mayo even in the Top 20.
     
  6. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

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    At first I thought this was possible, but I don't anymore. The only guy I have a slight concern about trading is McFadden. But to be honest I think the Jets take him.

    Based on most mock drafts it will be Ellis to trade if they want to. And considering the dropoff in defensive tackles and the obvious needs of both the Saints and Bengals at the position, I'm guessing we'd be at worst able to get a 3, or a swap of 2s, and BB would take that either IMO.

    With Matt Ryan, it's even better since he's a QB and the only concensus top-25 QB.

    The ability to trade out is related to what you're willing to accept. If the Pats don't want to draft anybody at 7 that is on the board, they'll accept less than normal, because the pick would be valued to them at less than normal.
     
  7. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    It bugs me also, but I've learned to expect it. I'll avoid any serious and long-winded response because this board isn't open to it. So simply stated, most people are easily influenced by mass suggestion (followers), are not free thinkers (believe the experts), and choose not to delve into the world of logic.

    You are correct -- there is no difference between 7 and 10.

    How logical is it to unanimously agree that the Pats seek out players who fit their system, yet some fans will complain that they passed on a highly ranked player and instead reached for another? So all Pats prospects must be selected from consensus rankings, and BB is bound by said rankings to find players who fit?

    A while ago, when so much of this forum's focus was on the top 6 prospects, I said it was wise to start considering those ranked after #7 -- just in case.

    Not a good value for whom? :blahblah:
     
  8. SeanBruschi54

    SeanBruschi54 In the Starting Line-Up

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    YES!


    DRAFT ME MAYO!!!

    The guy will dominate in a way that Demecco Ryans and Patrick Willis have.
     
  9. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    A players "VALUE" is relative to similar players at his position. There is a MAJOR drop off after Ellis and most everyone drafting high needs DL. "Value" between positions has to do with the bust factor and ease of evaluating talent. LB is likely the hardest position to evaluate talent because so few colleges play a "pro" offense and prep their guys that way along with the 4-3,3-4 mess. With the lack of hi-end talented playmakers teams are alot more likely to go with the big ugly linemen. They can say that the linemen are GOOD this year.....but tomato,tom~to.
    So on the sliding "VALUE" scale there is a big drop off after the first 6 guys that are invited to NY....Ellis,Clady and Albert are the "best of the rest", and though NEED isnt at DL, its going to be hard to pass on him if we dont trade the pick.
     
  10. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ah, now that's a discussion worth having! I'm absolutely open to the idea that the position isn't worth the money. But these discussions have all been about the particular player being worth the pick. Just look at the Sedrick Ellis/Atlanta example -- DT is certainly a reasonable position to draft in the upper reaches.
     
  11. Box_O_Rocks

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    Despite the USC jinx, Sed Ellis seems to be a good DT and someone Atlanta could plug in right away. The arguments that he's not as good a "value" as Ryan for Atlanta is bogus - I don't think a lot of teams are sold on Ryan as the next Brady/Manning, but Sed's Senior Bowl week suggests he'll do just fine in the NFL.
     
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It makes no sense for a player to be a great choice at #10 and an unthinkable reach at #7.
    The draft just isn't that precise. Until this week, Mayo was a reach at 10.

     
  13. since67

    since67 Practice Squad Player

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    The statement is TRUE.
     
  14. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Sure, and I have taken alot of flack considering I was the first here on the Albert bandwagon. Lets switch it around and use Leonard Davis as an example. He was drafted WAY high to be a T, just got paid MILLIONS to ge a G(!!)and made the pro bowl....."VALUE" is what a guy can get PAID! If they are paying big $$ to Gs its time to start drafting them higher right?? Dont get me wrong, I dont WANT Albert at 7(10-13 ok)to play just G. The guy has been playing football only 4 years and is going to get better and better....this is part of why people are talking about him at LT. He has "special value" if you buy into it doesnt he? How far down the list do you have to go til you get another OL that can do what they think he can?
     
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes you have to go way down the board to find a RG who anyone is his right mind thinks is an immediate contributer and future starter at LT. There is a good reason for this. If he were a LT, he would have been playing LT in college.

     
  16. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    Every friday all the mothers in the neighborhood send their kids out with a dollar each to buy as many good apples as they can.

    You're a competitive kid, and you want to impress your friends and your mom Myra by acquiring more good apples than anyone else.

    So you head for the market, where everyone is haggling over fruit.

    But when you look at the apples, you can't tell for sure which are fresh and which are dyed.

    Vendor 1 with a good reputation sets his price at $1 each.

    Vendor 2 with an OK rep sells his apples for .50 each.

    Vendor 3 with a marginal rep sells his apples for .25 each.

    But the difference in quality is hardly noticeable!

    If you go back to your mother with only one apple from vendor 1 she might say, "I gave you a dollar and all you got was one apple?"

    And other kids who come away with several good, cheap apples, might laugh at you for being a sucker.

    So you decide to impress everyone with how clever you are, and buy one .50 apple, and two .25 apples.

    And you think to yourself... "I just gamed the system! Instead of getting only one good apple, I got 3! Look how smart I am! That's value!"

    Your best friend, Matt Millen, is suitably impressed; the neighborhood bum, Mel Kiper, applauds your brilliance. You go home, your mother Myra is happy, she cuts open the apples and all the lower priced apples have worms.

    Fortunately, it takes 3 years for anyone to discover what an idiot you are.
     
  17. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Well, "VALUE" as a rookie might be getting good play out of him at RG. It would be ALOT more than any rookie we had last year. I like Albert as a FOOTBALL PLAYER, I havent seen a big guy work in space like he can before. I want to see him pulling on screens....setting up those inside seems for Welker,etc.... He might start out being able to do things Gs just dont do well, and its things like that BB puts "VALUE" on I think. Well groomed, his role expands over a few years and grows naturally into a monster LT. And why RG?? If we get him I see us trying Mankins at RT and him slipping into LT next to Light....We could improve 2-3 positions with 1 guy....Dont get me wrong, I personally dont want him at 7, maybe at 13, but would prefer a trade for an established player with later picks.
     
  18. mac

    mac On the Game Day Roster

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    The Pats need to chose the apple, which if they had said apple last season, they would have won the Super Bowl last February.
     
  19. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Mocks don't mean squat.

    Deion Branch was a concensus fourth rounder and we took him in the second.

    What a reach. Lousy value.
     
  20. Deus Irae

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    If he could definitely have been gotten with a much later pick, and the team could have made a trade to get down to that spot with no risk of losing the player either by another team drafting him with their own pick or by a team trading up to get him, it was a reach and lousy value. The player working out doesn't change that.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2008
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