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Here we go:
- People are talking of who will cover who. I don't think the Pats will lock Revis on one guy all game and move him depending on the situation, but for the most part I would probably put Revis on Steve Smith Sr. and Browner on Torrey Smith. Neither Smith has been consistent lately so both could be non-factors or monsters this weekend. I would put Browner on Torrey Smith because Smith is a soft player who has a tendency to quit when he is manhandled and he runs very uncomplicated routes. Steve Smith Sr. runs a lot more complicated routes which is more in Revis' wheelhouse.
- On the subject of Browner, the popular theory today is that Flacco should throw a lot of jump balls in his direction and collect the PI penalties. The thing is most of Browner's contact penalties are more of the illegal contact and holding variety closer to the line of scrimmage. Browner's game is playing physical off the line of scrimmage and knocking players off their routes. Not as much, physical down the field.
- On that subject, whoever is reffing this game will be important. Flacco loves the jump ball and trying to draw the penalty. We don't want to see a flag happy crew. Usually in the playoffs, they let players play. But this weekend, the flags flew way too much. They seem to be more flag happy this playoff season than during the regular season. Granted because of the picked up PI flag yesterday, they may be easing up on the flags next weekend.
- All this talk about the o-line and its problems, the o-line has not been nearly as bad as people make it. Prior to the Jets game (where Connolly and Brady's safety blanket, Edelman, were out), the Pats gave up four sacks in the previous eight games. The o-line has been an issue at times in recent weeks, but at full strength (like it should this weekend) it hasn't been an issue like people make it.
- Speaking of o-lines, no one is talking about the Ravens' depleted o-line. There is a good chance that both their starting tackles will be out. The Ravens lost their starting RT for the season on week 16 and Eugene Monroe, their starting LT, hasn't practiced in a few weeks. His replacement was owned by an aged James Harrison on Saturday. A hopefully fully healthy Chandler Jones should have a field day with him. The Pats don't have the greatest pass rush (although vastly underrated especially since people don't understand that Belichick likes to use contain rush against mobile QBs), but is certainly is better than the Steelers' pass rush.
- And about the Ravens' pass rush, people look at Saturday's game and are pointing to that to say Brady is going to be killed. But what people are ignoring is that most of the times they got pressure on Roethlisberger, it was by blitzing. Brady struggles when he is pressured with a four man rush and usually eats apart the blitzes. The Ravens had the advantage against the Steelers to blitz five or six and still drop five or six into deeper coverage because the Steelers had no threat of the run and they were trying to throw down field way too much (both reasons were because Bell was out of the game and he is Roethlisberger's saftey value with the quick dump offs). With the Pats, the Ravens will have to respect the run (at least far more than they did on Saturday) and the short passing game. They cannot play two safeties deep and still blitz or Brady will eat them apart over the center of the field.
- It is a fallacy that Brady and the offense always struggles vs. the Ravens. They scored 41 points last tie they met (granted it is on the legs of Blount). In the regular season of 2012, the Pats scored 30 points and the Ravens won on a questionable field goal by the Ravens at the end of regulation.
- They may have an army, but we have a Gronk. (My nod to The Avengers for the day) I look at the Ravens and I don't see how they stop Gronk. They can chip him with Suggs and Dummervil, but then it will slow the pass rush. I don't think they have the LBs or safeties to cover him.
- I think the Pats win this game convincingly. My prediction is 31-20.
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