Upcoming Game Thoughts:

[Rob0729]

Here we go:

• People are talking of who will cover who. I don't think the Pats will lock Revis on one guy all game and move him depending on the situation, but for the most part I would probably put Revis on Steve Smith Sr. and Browner on Torrey Smith. Neither Smith has been consistent lately so both could be non-factors or monsters this weekend. I would put Browner on Torrey Smith because Smith is a soft player who has a tendency to quit when he is manhandled and he runs very uncomplicated routes. Steve Smith Sr. runs a lot more complicated routes which is more in Revis' wheelhouse.

• On the subject of Browner, the popular theory today is that Flacco should throw a lot of jump balls in his direction and collect the PI penalties. The thing is most of Browner's contact penalties are more of the illegal contact and holding variety closer to the line of scrimmage. Browner's game is playing physical off the line of scrimmage and knocking players off their routes. Not as much, physical down the field.

• On that subject, whoever is reffing this game will be important. Flacco loves the jump ball and trying to draw the penalty. We don't want to see a flag happy crew. Usually in the playoffs, they let players play. But this weekend, the flags flew way too much. They seem to be more flag happy this playoff season than during the regular season. Granted because of the picked up PI flag yesterday, they may be easing up on the flags next weekend.

• All this talk about the o-line and its problems, the o-line has not been nearly as bad as people make it. Prior to the Jets game (where Connolly and Brady's safety blanket, Edelman, were out), the Pats gave up four sacks in the previous eight games. The o-line has been an issue at times in recent weeks, but at full strength (like it should this weekend) it hasn't been an issue like people make it.

• Speaking of o-lines, no one is talking about the Ravens' depleted o-line. There is a good chance that both their starting tackles will be out. The Ravens lost their starting RT for the season on week 16 and Eugene Monroe, their starting LT, hasn't practiced in a few weeks. His replacement was owned by an aged James Harrison on Saturday. A hopefully fully healthy Chandler Jones should have a field day with him. The Pats don't have the greatest pass rush (although vastly underrated especially since people don't understand that Belichick likes to use contain rush against mobile QBs), but is certainly is better than the Steelers' pass rush.

• And about the Ravens' pass rush, people look at Saturday's game and are pointing to that to say Brady is going to be killed. But what people are ignoring is that most of the times they got pressure on Roethlisberger, it was by blitzing. Brady struggles when he is pressured with a four man rush and usually eats apart the blitzes. The Ravens had the advantage against the Steelers to blitz five or six and still drop five or six into deeper coverage because the Steelers had no threat of the run and they were trying to throw down field way too much (both reasons were because Bell was out of the game and he is Roethlisberger's saftey value with the quick dump offs). With the Pats, the Ravens will have to respect the run (at least far more than they did on Saturday) and the short passing game. They cannot play two safeties deep and still blitz or Brady will eat them apart over the center of the field.

• It is a fallacy that Brady and the offense always struggles vs. the Ravens. They scored 41 points last tie they met (granted it is on the legs of Blount). In the regular season of 2012, the Pats scored 30 points and the Ravens won on a questionable field goal by the Ravens at the end of regulation.

• They may have an army, but we have a Gronk. (My nod to The Avengers for the day) I look at the Ravens and I don't see how they stop Gronk. They can chip him with Suggs and Dummervil, but then it will slow the pass rush. I don't think they have the LBs or safeties to cover him.

• I think the Pats win this game convincingly. My prediction is 31-20.

 

[Connecticut]

Great write up!

 

[ALP]

I would say more like 40-20, similar game to colts, Broncos, Cincy this reg season

It will be the least competitive game of the weekend

 

[Patriot Missile]

My thought of this whole week is I want this game played today. I can't stand all the fear from fans and the stupid articles claiming the Ravens aren't afraid and the Patriots should be scared ****less.

The old adage "Not being scared has nothing to do with an ass whoopin" or something of those lines. Bottom line the better team is going to win period. Personally I think it is going to be the Patriots slaughtering this Ravens team. I respect the Ravens but the Pats are not the Steelers. Brady is not holding onto the ball for 6 seconds and wait to be sacked because he has Edelman and he is more precise in his quick outs/ins. Ravens are soft in the middle of the field and Edelman, Gronkowski will expose it.

The Ravens aren't afraid? That funny, neither am I and I'm sure the Pats aren't either.

 

[TBR]

While our o-line certainly isn't all that bad when healthy, sacks don't tell the entire story.

They've allowed the 4th fewest sacks all season - but we've given up the 2nd most QB hits (52) and 9th most pressures (181).

 

[Rob0729]

While our o-line certainly isn't all that bad when healthy, sacks don't tell the entire story. They've allowed the 4th fewest sacks all season - but we've given up the 2nd most QB hits (52) and 9th most pressures (181).

The numbers are skewed a bit because of the first four week and the last two weeks there was an abnormally high amount of pressures because of the problems early in the season and the fact that players were out the last two weeks. It doesn't tell the whole story, but it certainly is a significant factor.

 

[TBR]

The numbers are skewed a bit because of the first four week and the last two weeks there was an abnormally high amount of pressures because of the problems early in the season and the fact that players were out the last two weeks. It doesn't tell the whole story, but it certainly is a significant factor.

Yea that makes sense as well. I wonder how we'd rank through weeks 5-15

 

[Sicilian]

Good stuff Rob, always appreciate you (and Patfanken) starting these threads. To me I think the apprehension many are feeling in this game has nothing to do with logical matchups or talent on the field, it's all about recent history. In 2004, we faced a Steelers team, on the road, that had beaten us badly in the regular season. I wasn't a member of this board back then, so I can't speak to the general mentality of the fanbase, but I don't remember many people who didn't feel like, "Nah man, we got this." And the reason was we'd had two years in recent memory where it didn't matter who we were playing, we ALWAYS found a way to win.

Now, we have too many examples of teams that we SHOULD beat that end up taking us down. The Ravens, the Jets, The Giants, etc. And the one thing each of those teams had in common was a strong defensive line. So I think it's natural that fans are looking at this game and get a queasy feeling. I think a large portion will feel that way until we win another Super Bowl. Then that feeling of, "We can beat anyone!" will be back.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

We'll hearthe media talk, this week, about history of the Ravens @ Foxboro for playoffs and how this will be a close game. how the Ravens ended strong and the Patriots didn't. I'm sure the Ravens are confident and can win this game (any team can win any game at this point).

the Colts/Luck broke their post-season winless streak with a win over the hapless Bengals/Andy Dalton.
Tony Romo/Dallas finally got another post season win.
It's the post season to settle old accounts.

But, I really want to see the Patriots come out and execute from the first quarter and put together a complete 60 minute game. I want the FU tour to begin in Foxboro on Saturday.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Good stuff Rob, always appreciate you (and Patfanken) starting these threads. To me I think the apprehension many are feeling in this game has nothing to do with logical matchups or talent on the field, it's all about recent history. In 2004, we faced a Steelers team, on the road, that had beaten us badly in the regular season. I wasn't a member of this board back then, so I can't speak to the general mentality of the fanbase, but I don't remember many people who didn't feel like, "Nah man, we got this." And the reason was we'd had two years in recent memory where it didn't matter who we were playing, we ALWAYS found a way to win.

Now, we have too many examples of teams that we SHOULD beat that end up taking us down. The Ravens, the Jets, The Giants, etc. And the one thing each of those teams had in common was a strong defensive line. So I think it's natural that fans are looking at this game and get a queasy feeling. I think a large portion will feel that way until we win another Super Bowl. Then that feeling of, "We can beat anyone!" will be back.

I agree, but the pats have never been as healthy as they are now - at least since 2007. the losses to the giants in 2011, jets in 2010, ravens in 2012 and broncos in 2013 can be attributed in a large part to key players like gronk or talib being injured.

 

[everlong]

• All this talk about the o-line and its problems, the o-line has not been nearly as bad as people make it. Prior to the Jets game (where Connolly and Brady's safety blanket, Edelman, were out), the Pats gave up four sacks in the previous eight games. The o-line has been an issue at times in recent weeks, but at full strength (like it should this weekend) it hasn't been an issue like people make it.

The offensive line has been good this year when it's been Solder, Conolly, Stork, Wendell and Vollmer. Take out one and it's been awful. To make a run we better all pray that unit is good to go and stays healthy. Historically when the line struggles in the playoffs the Patriots don't win and when they are good the Pats roll.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

team effort but hope the skilled players that can play ...play.

...oh and the motto for this week in Foxboro....Earn It!!

Very excited for this game...

 

[Jimke]

I would say more like 40-20, similar game to colts, Broncos, Cincy this reg season

It will be the least competitive game of the weekend

I agree with the 40 to 20 part but unfortunately the Patriots with be the 20. The Patriots will defer
the opening kickoff and the Ravens will march down the field and score. I don't think the Patriots
can overcome back to back lousy performances against the Jets and Bills. The Ravens will have
the Patriots offensive linemen spinning around like tops.

 

[BlueThunder]

Ravens keep it close until second half when Pats pull away.

BB's halftime adjustments make a big difference.

Double digit win by Pats !

 

[PP2]

Looking forward to more wham blocks from Gronk. Suggs is always going to have Gronk in the back of his head, so not sure he will be as effective in this game, as in the last one.

 

[Gronkandez]

Teams with stout interior D Lineman always give the Pats issues in the playoffs. Ngata and Williams are a great tandem and will make life difficult both in the run and pass game. If the Pats become one dimensional then that's when Suggs, Dummerville & co will be able to tee off. If htey can't establish the run I'm thinking they'll have to spread em out and do the hurry up.

Im not so sure that Dan Connely is the main the reason the line struggled badly vs the Jets and Bills. It would be nice if it was but I have a hard time believing that.

 

[Gronkandez]

I agree with the 40 to 20 part but unfortunately the Patriots with be the 20. The Patriots will defer
the opening kickoff and the Ravens will march down the field and score. I don't think the Patriots
can overcome back to back lousy performances against the Jets and Bills. The Ravens will have
the Patriots offensive linemen spinning around like tops.

oh, you are going to get killed on this board for having that opinion. Cue the Chicken Little comments.

 

[Triumph]

Its going to be a close game decided by 7 or less. I believe NE will win but also start out slow.

Same old defensive formula vs Brady and NE.

Ravens D
1. Get Brady off his spot.
2. Knock Brady down as much as possible.
3. Drop into 8 coverage and rush 3.
4. Take away Bradys bread and butter short to intermediate routes.
5 Be physical with NE WRs and ball carriers.

Pats O
1. NE cannot become 1 dimensional like Pitt so they have to establish the run.
2. Play action keeps the Ravens guessing and back on their heels.
3. Would be nice to see Brady hit a deep ball early for a change.
4. Gronk and Edelman will be priorities for double teams. LaFell, Vereen, Wright and even Almendola must step it up in the passing game.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with the 40 to 20 part but unfortunately the Patriots with be the 20. The Patriots will defer
the opening kickoff and the Ravens will march down the field and score. I don't think the Patriots
can overcome back to back lousy performances against the Jets and Bills. The Ravens will have
the Patriots offensive linemen spinning around like tops.

You counting Buffalo? The Pats had about a half dozen starters out of the game and pulled even more starters by half time. That game meant nothing and the defense with a bunch of back ups held the Bills out of the end zone in the second half. No way the Ravens score 40 points against the Pats even if they win.

Even in the Jets' game, they had Connolly, Edelman, Blount, and Arrington out which made a big difference in the game.

 

[Rob0729]

oh, you are going to get killed on this board for having that opinion. Cue the Chicken Little comments.

When opinions are based on faulty logic, they are open to criticism. He used the fact that Pats struggled against the Bills as evidence the Pats would lose. That is faulty since the Pats had many of their best players inactive for the game to rest them (Edelman, Gronk, Connolly, Vollmer, Hightower, and Browner). He said the Ravens would score 40 even though the Ravens have scored 40 points once this entire season (against the Bucs) and the Pats have only given up 40 points once (against the Chiefs).

I can understand an argument for the Ravens to win, but not the argument he put forth.