Tyrod Taylor Benched

[Deus Irae]

View attachment 18622 Tyrod is not a great quarterback, but he's probably a top 20 starter and he's definitely a top 25 one. The number of teams who have a franchise quarterback, one who instantly puts you in contention, is very small.

If the Bills are serious about trying to make the playoffs, if they are interested in building a culture of winning, this is a bad choice.

Pretty much. Here's a fun exercise:

BB has 5 SB wins as a head coach. Compare that to the number of SB wins, combined, for the other 31 current head coaches.

TFB has 5 SB wins as a starting QB. Compare that to the number of SB wins, combined, for the other 31 current starting QBs.

 

[long distance]

So, could someone explain the logic behind this move?

I thought this post earlier in the thread explained it pretty good.

As someone who has seen a lot of Bills game (as we get them rammed down our throat in Toronto), here is the problem with Tyrod Taylor.

upside, he has a pretty good arm and is quick on his feet, and can keep plays alive

downside, poor decision making, slow on his progressions, and only throws to a receiver if that receiver is 5 yds open.
he's afraid to throw into tight coverage.

Against the Jets, he had a free play (Jets had 12 men on the field), and he threw it 20 yds out of bounds.
To me, that is a QB who is not situationally aware and makes poor decisions

Those who watch him pretty much agree.
Here from Benoit in 3 sentences:




Once you figure out you don't really have your QB and you're in a new build mode Id guess its better to go with reality than chasing the possibility (of PO). Also Peterman is their choice so its understandable they'd like to see what they have . a bit of scratch an itch . possibly real action audition in regard to next draft where they have plenty of firepower and would like to know better if they have to use it on a better QB..
_____

EDIT: And it helps them better understand what they have in other players on O with eye on the future. Hard to really evaluate if QB doesn't play to design..

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

No we didn’t.

OK, a second year QB. Distinction without a difference.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Taylor has won enough games to show that he's a good Qb. Unless the backup is lighting up the practices this looks like a desperation move. I watched the saints game and it's unfair to place all the blame on the qb. That defense was horrid and one of the ints was because the TE had the ball bounce off his hands. It's good for us though, Taylor usually plays well against us.

all scrambling qb’s play well against us

 

[Ring 6]

OK, a second year QB. Distinction without a difference.

Enormous difference.

 

[bormio]

Taylor is not appreciably better than 2 years ago. He is not likely to improve much. Time to turn the page. He is not going to win games with his ability - he basically plays to not lose them. That is not enough to compete with the Pats.

 

[Ring 6]

I was under the impression that the Bills were creating a culture of accountability, or at least attempting to. I think we have to assume that Peterman is outperforming Taylor in practice for this switch to make sense. Going to the worse option makes no sense with their new mantra.

Edit: After more consideration, I am not sure this bold part is true. I think that Peterman just has to play well enough that it is plausible he could play better, not strictly outperforming. I don't think the coaches could bench a decent QB for a trash-can without losing the locker room.

You are assuming a lot. What tells you they are creating a culture of accountability? It looks to me like they are making it up as they go.

You are also starting from the assumption it was a smart decision and backing into a reason when the decision looks dumb, poorly thought out and negligent.

 

[Deus Irae]

I thought this post earlier in the thread explained it pretty good.

It doesn't.

 

[NE-VT]

What tells you they are creating a culture of accountability?

That observation with via "GM Street". I can attempt to find the episode on it, to try to recall the exact reasoning. I think it was about know tendencies of those coaches, and previous GM moves they made to maintain locker-room culture.

It looks to me like they are making it up as they go.

You are also starting from the assumption it was a smart decision and backing into a reason when the decision looks dumb, poorly thought out and negligent.

This post came up in the context of Deus asking "to make sense of" the change.

I explained that I was low on Taylor prior to the change, so that part of them wanting to move on made sense to me. So while it is possible the team could have made the switch purely to evaluate talent, I thought it was less likely given things I previously believed about the team. I also generally assume GM's are making moving based on some logic, even if that logic is flawed in some way.

 

[slam]

I bet there are more than six threads apiece on jetsnation and Gang Green wondering jealously why the Jets can't bench McCown for the kids like this.

 

[meatface]

Where do you see 4 wins?

2 vs patriots
2 vs Miami
At chargers and chiefs
Home vs colts.


Looks like a 2-5 or at best 3-4.

I just dont think a team is going to be 5-4 and give up on a season because they have some tough match ups.

 

[bormio]

My God, he had 56 yards passing in a game they trailed from the get go. That is worse than Manziel. If the Bills are winning, it is in spite of Taylor, not because of him.

 

[Ring 6]

That observation with via "GM Street". I can attempt to find the episode on it, to try to recall the exact reasoning. I think it was about know tendencies of those coaches, and previous GM moves they made to maintain locker-room culture.

I’m talking about actually doing it not it being needed or saying you are going to do it.
Everyone preaches accountability, not everyone creates and enforces it, or even really understands it.

This post came up in the context of Deus asking "to make sense of" the change.

I explained that I was low on Taylor prior to the change, so that part of them wanting to move on made sense to me. So while it is possible the team could have made the switch purely to evaluate talent, I thought it was less likely given things I previously believed about the team. I also generally assume GM's are making moving based on some logic, even if that logic is flawed in some way.

Well that’s my point. It could be panic. It could be a number of bad reasons.

 

[NE-VT]

Where do you see 4 wins?

2 vs patriots
2 vs Miami
At chargers and chiefs
Home vs colts.

Looks like a 2-5 or at best 3-4.

538 predicts them going 8-8, but they have a 38% chance of getting the wild card.

2017 NFL Predictions

 

[NE-VT]

I’m talking about actually doing it not it being needed or saying you are going to do it.
Everyone preaches accountability, (1) not everyone creates and enforces it, or even really understands it.

(2) Well that’s my point. It could be panic. It could be a number of bad reasons.

(1) The claim was they are actually doing it. I won't pretend to be able to evaluate how true that is. If watch some old "GM street" episodes I can give you some more details. Not sure if it right or not.

(2) If you agree that Taylor is mediocre and that they are very unlikely to win SB with him, I don't think it is panic. They are going to evaluate the next QB to better prepare for the offseason. I was suggesting that the next QB might also be decent and might have earned his playing time. Either way, I think the move makes sense. Although I like it much better if Peterman earned it.

 

[Ring 6]

538 predicts them going 8-8, but they have a 38% chance of getting the wild card.

2017 NFL Predictions

As if this is meaningful?

 

[NE-VT]

As if this is meaningful?

If you think you can beat analytic prediction methods go to Vegas.

How Our 2017 NFL Predictions Work

 

[Ring 6]

(1) The claim was they are actually doing it. I won't pretend to be able to evaluate how true that is. If watch some old "GM street" episodes I can give you some more details. Not sure if it right or not.

But I’m not talking about what some person said, I’m talking about reality.

(2)

If you agree that Taylor is mediocre and that they are very unlikely to win SB with him, I don't think it is panic. They are going to evaluate the next QB to better prepare for the offseason. I was suggesting that the next QB might also be decent and might have earned his playing time. Either way, I think the move makes sense. Although I like it much better if Peterman earned it.

And I’m saying that’s a stupid approach for a 5-4 team.

 

[Ring 6]

If you think you can beat analytic prediction methods go to Vegas.

How Our 2017 NFL Predictions Work

You are joking right?

 

[NE-VT]

You are joking right?

The over-under on the Bills is 6 (not 8, the 538 projection). Never mind I misread the chart, I apologize.

2017 NFL Season Win Totals

You thought they would be 7-9 or 8-8.

Where do you see 4 wins?

2 vs patriots
2 vs Miami
At chargers and chiefs
Home vs colts.

Looks like a 2-5 or at best 3-4.

If you think analytic methods are total BS relative to your personal evaluation, then would you be willing to bet on your intuitions consistently? Or do you not think you could consistently out-perform analytic estimates?

And I’m saying that’s a stupid approach for a 5-4 team.

Given it looks like they are a 7-9 or 8-8 team, why is it a stupid approach?