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Trading up vs Trading down

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by TriplecHamp, Jan 16, 2010.

  1. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He's convinced me - the Jests mortgaged their depth/future for a quick score.
  3. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    I'm sure some people on this board have done the same. :D
  4. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Focus please, this was a football discussion. :snob:
  5. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    Jets fans believe that Mark Sanchez and Shonn Green are the future.
  6. fester

    fester Rookie

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    Pretty damn weak article. Now if the author extended the comparison back a few years to the 2007 draft then that is an excellent argument for trading up when a team thinks the value is unreal (Revis & Harris) v. trading out for 2008 or vet players and how that could impact the 2009-2010 playoff race. But a below competent QB and a 2nd member of a RB by Committee tandem is not a killer draft for the Jets in 2009.

    Instead between only 3 picks (including 1 very expensive QB) this year and the Gholston bust, the Jets will have a cheap AND young talent dearth once Mangold, Ferguson and Revis are up for their non-rookie contracts. The Jets are on a glide path towards talented, but not cheap, which if the CBA is as owner-friendly as it could be, not sustainable.

    The relevant question for the Pats is that they have created a massive amount of fiscal breathing room by bringing on ~20 players either in the first or second year of their rookie deals, but are those players good enough now or in the near future to make the Patriots an elite team when combined with future draft picks, existing veterans and FA/trade acquisitions. The Pats right now are cheap and young, the question is talent.
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The perceived Jets vs. Pats draft strategy question (trade up for a few key players vs. build roster depth) has been discussed in detail fairly recently:

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/311014-draft-strategy.html

    I think both strategies have their merits, and wouldn't advocate any one exclusively. I think we did a great job of adding depth last year. We clearly picked up one unexpected blue chip prospect in Sebastian Vollmer. Darius Butler could develop into a stud CB as well. Patrick Chung has shown flashes, as did Brandon Tate briefly. Our late round picks were exceptional. All in all a very good draft. If a few people develop, if Ron Brace turns out not to be a dud, if Tyrone McKenzie recovers from his injury to be a contributor, and if Ohrnberger of Bussey develops into a solid guard for us, then it could be a truly outstanding draft. If none of those things happen, it will still be fairly solid given Vollmer, Butler, Edelman, Pryor and Ingram.

    This year we have a minimum of 6+ major needs to fill, even assuming that we re-sign Wilfork, Bodden, Mankins, Watson and Gostkowski:

    - 1-2 outside pass rushers
    - A true SILB to complement Mayo
    - A true 3-4 DE
    - A solid #3 WR (preferably one who can play #2 while Welker is out)
    - Depth at RB
    - A starting caliber RG to replace Stephen Neal

    We won't be able to fill all of those needs through the draft. I hope that we target 2-3 of these needs in FA, leaving us with 3-4 key needs to address in the draft. With all of our ammunition, we should be well equipped to move around (whether up, down or sideways) to target prospects and fill those needs.

    The Jets seem to fall in love with prospects and go after them very aggressively - Sanchez, Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Dustin Keller and Shonn Greene, among others. They often spent quite a bit to get their guy. The Pats generally do not seem as aggressive about targeting individual players. It will be interesting to see if that changes this year, and if they go after a guy like Rolando McClain, who will be very sought after, or a particular pass rusher.

    I would like to see us come out of this draft with 2 blue chip prospects and a starting caliber RG. I think that there is a need to add playmakers and difference makers, particularly on defense, and right now I would rather see us get those kind of guys then build a lot of depth with red chip prospects.
  8. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    I didn't even consider drafting Oher in a mock because I thought he would be gone with SF's pick. When he fell to us I was pretty po'd he wasn't selected. As far as Mathews everytime I seen him in someone's mock I would cringe. He just wasn't appealing to me at all.
  9. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    two different scenarios above.
  10. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My plan is similar to your 2 scenarios:

    Scenario 1[/b]

    - Re-sign Vince Wilfork, Leigh Bodden, Ben Watson; tender or re-sign Logan Mankins and Stefan Gostkowski
    - Sign UFA Karlos Dansby to play SILB
    - Sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant. Deion Branch is a low-cost backup plan.
    - Sign RB Willis McGahee, who will likely be cut by Baltimore in a cost-cutting move.
    - Bring back Willie McGinest for leadership and to mentor the young pass rushers (see below). Also consider signing Quentin Groves if he is cut by Jacksonville.
    - Trade Adalius Thomas for whatever you can get. However we can manage it, trade into the early 3rd round.

    Draft:

    - Trade 42, 46 and 118 to Atlanta for 19 and 83

    19: CJ Spiller, RB - a dynamic offensive playmaker and all-purpose threat
    22: Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB - a young Willie McGinest
    53: Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, UMass (backup plan: Mike Johnson, Alabama)
    3rd round: Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray St. - division 2 kid with enormous upside.
    Late rounds:
    - Clifton Geathers, DE, Clemson - 6'8" 290# kid with a lot of potential as a 3-4 DE
    - Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green - all he does is make catches
    - Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan - a real punter would be nice. Most teams have one.
    - Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa - good all-purpose blue collar TE. We don't use them, anyway, so an elite one is wasted.

    Scenario 1[/b]

    - Re-sign Vince Wilfork, Leigh Bodden, Ben Watson; tender or re-sign Logan Mankins and Stefan Gostkowski
    - Sign UFA Karlos Dansby to play SILB
    - Sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant. Deion Branch is a low-cost backup plan.
    - Sign RB Willis McGahee, who will likely be cut by Baltimore in a cost-cutting move.
    - Bring back Willie McGinest for leadership and to mentor the young pass rushers (see below). Also consider signing Quentin Groves if he is cut by Jacksonville.
    - Trade Adalius Thomas for whatever you can get. However we can manage it, trade into the early 3rd round.

    Draft:

    Same as scenario 1 but:

    - Bring in a pass rusher in FA such as Shawne Merriman or Aaron Kampman instead of Dansby
    - Consider signing an all-purpose back like Reggie Bush as an alternative to McGahee
    - Trade 22 and 42 to Denver for #10

    10: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
    46: Best available RB: Jahvid Best (Cal), Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech), Ryan Mathews (Fresno St.), or trade back for Dexter McCluster or Toby Gerhart
    - Other draft picks from 53 on are the same.
  11. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    im as big of a patriots fan as anyone. but to say they mortgaged depth to get the player they think will lead them to the super bowl is non-sense. bottom line is, when we have drafted, there were very good players available. we have been unable to snag them.
  12. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    What mistake?

    Trading down from the Matthews spot directly lead to Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman and this year's 2nd rounder from Tennessee.

    How can you judge that a bust?

    As for the Jets, are they so certain they have something in Shonn Greene? He looks slow to me.

    That article was bogus to begin with. I mean, the opening line made me shake my head. The Jets are, after all, the team that traded UP for Dwayne Robertson and Vernon Gholston, while the Patriots traded DOWN that same year for the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

    This year I want the Patriots to trade down simply because they need more than 4 picks in the first 3 rounds of the deepest draft in a decade. And they have lots of holes and needs, at DE, OLB, ILB, WR and G.
  13. furley

    furley Rookie

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    In my opinion, I think it was more to do with the fact that the Jets simply had a better defense than the Patriots this season. That's why the Jets won their first round game and the Patriots lost in their. Moreover, the Patriots inability to stop Rice cost them the game. Baltimore focused on running the ball and did so effectively. Also, New England was affected by injuries and players not being completely healthy. I don't believe you can attribute the Jets win and the Patriots lost as being directly determined by last year's draft. I mean I would give more credit to Jones than Sanchez for the Jets success this season. And to Washington had he not been lost for the season.

    As for picking a draft strategy, I like the idea of staying put. I'm not a fan of trading away your first round pick or trading out of the first round unless in doing so you're receiving a first round pick for the following year. But to trade down and select in the second round as the Patriots did last year. It better be in a year in which the draft is extremely deep. Otherwise, you can look foolish if that second round pick or those second round picks turn up fool's gold. As I've said before, I only make an attempt to trade up if a feasible scenario presents itself and it's obviously worth the effort. Of course, it's worth the effort only if you've a lot of picks and the player you're trading up to select is a sure thing.

    I think it's too early to feel either way about Chung. Because I wasn't thrilled about Meriweather and he has become a better than decent player. I would've preferred to have selected Beason, but that's me.

    Vollmer seems like a good value pick. While the jury is still out on Brace. I think fans are more dissatisfied with Chung after seeing how good Delmas and Bryd proved to be. Well, in Delmas' case, Detroit counted on him right away. Perhaps, Chung simply underperformed. I mean Bryd made the Pro Bowl and he didn't start right off. That means he gave the team reasons to start him ahead of who was starting.
  14. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    I would suggest drafting a pass rush guy or an ILB with my first pick. The only question is, are any players at #22 worth the pick. Rolando McClain is worth it, but he's not dropping that low, but if he gets to the late teens, I consider trading up. (This assumes we don't sign someone like Karlos Dansby, which--if we did sign Dansby--would totally free up our draft day to fill a lot of holes).

    Many of the other other pass rushers, Dunlap, Sapp, Coleman, Griffen, Hughes, Wooton, Hardy, Graham, Selvie, Jean-Francois, etc. may be available in the top to mid part of the second round.

    So will ILB Brandon Spikes.

    So, if I can't grab McClain, I trade down a bit for an early second and a late 2nd or early 3rd rounder.

    I look into possible trading our next year's number 1 or number 2 to move into the 2nd or 3rd round (this draft is going to be so much stronger than next year's because of all the juniors coming out) and since we have the Raiders pick at the top, we won't feel totally shut out in 2011.

    This gives me 6 total picks in the first 3 rounds instead of 4. I look into trading Adalius Thomas for a 4th (at $5 million, he's worth it to some other team).

    That would give me 8 picks in the first 4 rounds.

    I could end up with these players:

    2nd: ILB Brandon Spikes
    2nd: DE/OLB Greg Hardy or Carlos Dunlap or?
    2nd: WR Arrelious Benn
    2nd: OLB Eric Norwood
    2nd/3rd: OG Vladimir Ducasse (keep the New England boy home, plus he's a Haiti kid, AND he contributes to the internationalization of our OL)
    3rd: WR Mardy Gilyard (I think this kid is going to be a real player in the NFL)
    4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as DE Antonio Coleman
    4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as C Matt Tennant
    5th: WR/KR/Specialist Jacoby Ford
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think that trading our own 2011 first for a 2010 pick is a fine idea. After all, the shoe is now on the other foot. It is the patriots that are rebuilding and need the picks now.
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know about you, but I've not drafted anyone. As for the Jesters, they may have drafted specific players they wanted, but to fill out their roster they needed to chase high-priced Free Agents. People have been crying their eyes out over BB trading for Burgess, but imagine the Jets who spent big money on Pace, Jenkins, Scott, etc....
  17. Nonentity

    Nonentity Rookie

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    Disable Jersey

    I've mentioned this elsewhere, but only where a blue-chip talent is falling and we don't otherwise have the picks to grab them. The deal is difficult to evaluate at the time of trade because you don't know what the lower half of the 2011 draft is going to look like. Remember that the flip side is Alphonso Smith, which looks like having been bad deal for the Broncos.
  18. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    If the Patriots have Benn rated as highly as, say, Dwayne Bowe was a few years ago, and Benn drops into the second, then any way you cut it, you grab a kid with a 1st round grade at a position of need, and you grab him a year earlier.

    It doesn't mean Benn is going to pan out for you, but if you're likely going to need a top WR anyway, then why not do it a year early when the draft is rather deep for WRs?
  19. Gunnails

    Gunnails Rookie

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    ==================================================

    I am not a draft guy, Jets gave 2 #1 picks to move up and grab D-Rob, mid round picks I believe, a Kings ransom, in hindsight an awful deal to get the Bowling Ball With Knives..

    Ghoulston was the Jets slotted pick at #6, I believe they wanted to trade out of #6 and move down but were unable to find reasonable value and so took the BPA at #6. Maybe this is why mangini was willing to give up the #5 last draft for what is considered peanuts.

    Trading up our down in general only works when you can do so for reasonable value.
  20. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I've drafted a few beers in my time. :D

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