Trading up vs Trading down

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Jets are not going to get much better next year..


Let's face it, the only reason they are in the playoffs, is that both the Colts and Bengals laid down for them. I will be shocked if they don't get crushed today in San Diego.


They are now restricted in how many Free Agents they can sign next year. The have already traded away there 3rd (Edwards), 4th(Sheppard) 5th(Edwards) and 7th(O'Connell) round picks, the 3rd and 4th rounders both of which had escalator clauses, so they may be without their 2nd rd pick too.

At best they will have picks #25 and #57 and that is it.

 

[mayoclinic]

==================================================

I am not a draft guy, Jets gave 2 #1 picks to move up and grab D-Rob, mid round picks I believe, a Kings ransom, in hindsight an awful deal to get the Bowling Ball With Knives..

Ghoulston was the Jets slotted pick at #6, I believe they wanted to trade out of #6 and move down but were unable to find reasonable value and so took the BPA at #6. Maybe this is why mangini was willing to give up the #5 last draft for what is considered peanuts.

Trading up our down in general only works when you can do so for reasonable value.

Either way works fine when you end up with the right players. San Francisco traded up for Jerry Rice in 1985 and got a GOAT WR for reasonable cost, then traded down like crazy in 1986 and got 8 eventual starters, and 6 players who made the Pro Bowl at some point in their careers (OT Steve Wallace, WR John Taylor, DE/OLB Charles Haley, DE Kevin ***in, and CBs Don Griffen and Tim McKyer; FB Tom Rathman and DE Larry Roberts were solid players in their own rights).

The Jets seem to have succeeded with trade ups for Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez and Greene. As you say, Dwayne Robertson didn't work out so well, and the cost was enormous. Trading back works great when you get a bunch of starters, not so great when you miss out on an all pro player.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I've drafted a few beers in my time.

That's nectar, not a person. :nono:

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The Jets are not going to get much better next year..


Let's face it, the only reason they are in the playoffs, is that both the Colts and Bengals laid down for them. I will be shocked if they don't get crushed today in San Diego.


They are now restricted in how many Free Agents they can sign next year. The have already traded away there 3rd (Edwards), 4th(Sheppard) 5th(Edwards) and 7th(O'Connell) round picks, the 3rd and 4th rounders both of which had escalator clauses, so they may be without their 2nd rd pick too.

At best they will have picks #25 and #57 and that is it.

And there is no shame in that because the Jets can use UDFA type to fill in depth positions. The starters are set for the most part.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Jets', Patriots' Draft Day Trades Impacted Their Playoff Fates - New York Jets - NESN.com

Interesting article, I hope we dont make the same mistake this year. Who knows what would have happened if we traded up and in the long run it may have helped. Im happy with Vollmer and Butler but Brace and Chung havnt shown much but again it was only year one.

I think it all comes down to the player(s) available. If you feel a certain player is the player for your team then you go up and get him. Period,no regrets. BB has done it more than once. Nothing wrong with that thinking.

If you think a draft is deep in potential players at the same position, you do not have to trade up, you can let the draft fall to you.

I remember the draft we took Warren in, there were lots of 3-4 DE's in the draft and it looked like BB was content to sit back and take what would fall to him, but they went off the board often and early, to the point where BB traded up a spot to secure Warren.

In this draft there are two 3-4 players that are playmakers and true fits for our defense. Mt.Cody and McClain.

The questions BB is asking himself are:

1.) What will it take to go get them?
2.) Are there alternatives to these players that project just as well?
3.) What do the alternatives cost (dollars or draft picks)?
4.) Will these targeted players make the football team better?

It is a dance and when BB the GM's aggregate short term wins exceed the loses,it makes BB the coach look like a genius. And when BB the GM aggregate loses exceed the short term wins, it makes BB the coach look terrible.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I don't know about you, but I've not drafted anyone. As for the Jesters, they may have drafted specific players they wanted, but to fill out their roster they needed to chase high-priced Free Agents. People have been crying their eyes out over BB trading for Burgess, but imagine the Jets who spent big money on Pace, Jenkins, Scott, etc....

Shonn GreenBut the thing is all these players have in twelve games Pace has 7 sacks, Jenkins has only played 4 games because of injury, and Scott has been the leader of the defense. The Jets traded up and got Revis who happens to be the best CB in the NFL (after Nnamdi ) The Jets have the best defense in the NFL so maybe we need to go out and get some Free agents who will contribute (AD ), maybe the Pats need to change scheme (I havnt been a fan of the 2 gap recently).

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The Jets have the best defense in the NFL so maybe we need to go out and get some Free agents who will contribute (AD ), maybe the Pats need to change scheme (I havnt been a fan of the 2 gap recently).

Who are the FA that can contribute in our defense?

Dansby?
Peppers?

There is just as much gamble with veterans as there is with draft picks.

 

[State]

I could end up with these players:

2nd: ILB Brandon Spikes
2nd: DE/OLB Greg Hardy or Carlos Dunlap or?
2nd: WR Arrelious Benn
2nd: OLB Eric Norwood
2nd/3rd: OG Vladimir Ducasse (keep the New England boy home, plus he's a Haiti kid, AND he contributes to the internationalization of our OL)
3rd: WR Mardy Gilyard (I think this kid is going to be a real player in the NFL)
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as DE Antonio Coleman
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as C Matt Tennant
5th: WR/KR/Specialist Jacoby Ford

I doubt Spikes and Dunlap would both be available to us in the second round.

I think you may be on to something with New England players such as the UMass tackle and esp. the center from BC. For whatever reason Koppen started looking stiff and aged out there.

And I think you're right about Gilyard, too. But Arrelious Benn would be a dream come true. The only question is his lack of production at college.

 

[TriplecHamp]

What mistake?

Trading down from the Matthews spot directly lead to Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman and this year's 2nd rounder from Tennessee.

How can you judge that a bust?

As for the Jets, are they so certain they have something in Shonn Greene? He looks slow to me.

That article was bogus to begin with. I mean, the opening line made me shake my head. The Jets are, after all, the team that traded UP for Dwayne Robertson and Vernon Gholston, while the Patriots traded DOWN that same year for the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

This year I want the Patriots to trade down simply because they need more than 4 picks in the first 3 rounds of the deepest draft in a decade. And they have lots of holes and needs, at DE, OLB, ILB, WR and G.

Nobody said it was a bust but honestly we passed on a pro bowler in Matthews, I was never a big fan of the Brace pick but I understand that we need DL depth. But now that we have him why do you still want a DE to replace Seymour? Do you expect the Them to let Wilfork walk? If so what about Pryor or Wright? I honestly don't think DE is a big problem, we don't need a first or second rounder at every position. Hopefully we spend some money in free agency to help out at the Pass Rush and Receiving issues and maybe even Guard. The Jets never traded up for Gholston they actually tried to trade down but couldn't get the value they wanted so they went with Gholston and it hasn't worked out. We could have had Matthews, Butler, Volmer and your choice of Brace or Chung or even and ILB in the second round. All of the holes you mentioned cant be fixed through the draft and we've seen the reluctance of BB to throw a rookie who he feels isn't ready on to the field so why not go up and try to get rookies who will be ready to step up and make an impact after patching some holes through FA.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Who are the FA that can contribute in our defense?

Dansby?
Peppers?

There is just as much gamble with veterans as there is with draft picks.

Dansby, Peppers, Kampman, there are a few others but honestly I want FA on offense at G, and Receiver. A free agent Pass rusher would be nice to go along with a rookie that we would draft, or Dansby would fill a need at ILB.

I would suggest drafting a pass rush guy or an ILB with my first pick. The only question is, are any players at #22 worth the pick. Rolando McClain is worth it, but he's not dropping that low, but if he gets to the late teens, I consider trading up. (This assumes we don't sign someone like Karlos Dansby, which--if we did sign Dansby--would totally free up our draft day to fill a lot of holes).

Many of the other other pass rushers, Dunlap, Sapp, Coleman, Griffen, Hughes, Wooton, Hardy, Graham, Selvie, Jean-Francois, etc. may be available in the top to mid part of the second round.

So will ILB Brandon Spikes.

So, if I can't grab McClain, I trade down a bit for an early second and a late 2nd or early 3rd rounder.

I look into possible trading our next year's number 1 or number 2 to move into the 2nd or 3rd round (this draft is going to be so much stronger than next year's because of all the juniors coming out) and since we have the Raiders pick at the top, we won't feel totally shut out in 2011.

This gives me 6 total picks in the first 3 rounds instead of 4. I look into trading Adalius Thomas for a 4th (at $5 million, he's worth it to some other team).

That would give me 8 picks in the first 4 rounds.

I could end up with these players:

2nd: ILB Brandon Spikes
Okay its reasonable
2nd: DE/OLB Greg Hardy or Carlos Dunlap or?
Doubt either is availabel this late in the second
2nd: WR Arrelious Benn
Hes not going to be available in the second
2nd: OLB Eric Norwood
another one that most likely wont be available in the second and even if he is doesnt bb want 6'3+OLB?
2nd/3rd: OG Vladimir Ducasse (keep the New England boy home, plus he's a Haiti kid, AND he contributes to the internationalization of our OL)
Probably going in the mid to late second
3rd: WR Mardy Gilyard (I think this kid is going to be a real player in the NFL)
Solid second round pick, doubt hes availble in the third
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as DE Antonio Coleman
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as C Matt Tennant
5th: WR/KR/Specialist Jacoby Ford

The rest are okay, a more realistic scenario with the picks you have us owning would be...
2nd #1: Carlos Dunlap (if were lucky) Sergio Kindle is more likely (OLB's)
2nd #2: Ryan Matthews/Joe McKinght (RB's)
2nd #3: Vladimir Ducasse (OG)
2nd #4: Jordan Shipley (WR
3rd: Micha Johnson (ILB)
With the Picks above, I can see Shipley and either of the RBs immidiatly impacting games, the outside Linebacker that we draft will likely make an impact as well if BB lets them (or trusts them) to play. An OG drafted this year might not play as much as we would think, remember we drafted Ohrnburger(I prob butcherd his name lol) and he will most likely take over for Neal if he retires before a rookie would. Plus, who knows maybe Rich is the answer at OG and we dont know it. Maybe BB thinks that Tate will contribute as a #3 or #4 wideout, Maybe he thinks that McKenzie and Guyton should man the ILB posistion with Guyton coming in on third downs. This is all speculation. I hope that we get two playmakers on D and a receiver and a RB within the first 4 rounds. That is all I want.

 

[carolinatony]

This year we have a minimum of 6+ major needs to fill, even assuming that we re-sign Wilfork, Bodden, Mankins, Watson and Gostkowski:

- 1-2 outside pass rushers
- A true SILB to complement Mayo
- A true 3-4 DE
- A solid #3 WR (preferably one who can play #2 while Welker is out)
- Depth at RB
- A starting caliber RG to replace Stephen Neal




Can't add anything to what Mayo said.
Maybe a new OC would be nice and throwing to our TE .

 

[TriplecHamp]

This year we have a minimum of 6+ major needs to fill, even assuming that we re-sign Wilfork, Bodden, Mankins, Watson and Gostkowski:

- 1-2 outside pass rushers
- A true SILB to complement Mayo
- A true 3-4 DE
- A solid #3 WR (preferably one who can play #2 while Welker is out)
- Depth at RB
- A starting caliber RG to replace Stephen Neal




Can't add anything to what Mayo said.
Maybe a new OC would be nice and throwing to our TE .

Again we may have 2 of thoes already on the Roster with Pryor/Wright, and Rich Orhburger. That leaves 4 "holes" I want three filled through the draft (ILB, Pass Rusher and #3 Wideout) as well as picking up a G for depth purposes late. We can also look to FA to help fill the Pass Rush and #3 receiver part.

 

[mayoclinic]

Again we may have 2 of thoes already on the Roster with Pryor/Wright, and Rich Orhburger. That leaves 4 "holes" I want three filled through the draft (ILB, Pass Rusher and #3 Wideout) as well as picking up a G for depth purposes late. We can also look to FA to help fill the Pass Rush and #3 receiver part.

I'm not comfortable with what we have on our roster for RG and for depth at 3-4 DE.

1. At OG/C we have Mankins (who should be an RFA and will be tendered, if not actually extended) and Koppen. Neal has been injury prone and age and injuries have taken a toll on his skills, and he may not be back for 2010. Behind him we have Connolly (who has nice versatility at center and some size, but the OL suffered quite a bit when he played RG this year), Ohrnberger (who barely played at all this year) and Wendell (who is undersized and was on the practice squad most of the year). I'm not comfortable assuming that any of those 3 guys is ready to step up and start at RG day 1 if Neal retires, or to depend on any of those 3 guys for significant playing time if Neal returns and is injury prone. I consider get a starting caliber RG in the first 2 rounds of the draft a necessity.

2. At DL we currently have a starting rotation of Mike Wright, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren. Assuming Wilfork is back, that is adequate, but I count Wright as a starter and not a backup. I think that Jarvis Green is probably gone, and he is certainly upgradeable. Ron Brace is a backup NT and not a DE. And while Myron Pryor was used some at DE, he is not a classic 3-4 DE. Hence my desire to add at least a developmental prospect with some upside to the roster, to replace Green. That player doesn't have to be capable of producing much his rookie year, but I'd like to get someone who can develop into a solid 3-4 DE, and perhaps bring some of the athleticism we lost with Richard Seymour.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I'm not comfortable with what we have on our roster for RG and for depth at 3-4 DE.

1. At OG/C we have Mankins (who should be an RFA and will be tendered, if not actually extended) and Koppen. Neal has been injury prone and age and injuries have taken a toll on his skills, and he may not be back for 2010. Behind him we have Connolly (who has nice versatility at center and some size, but the OL suffered quite a bit when he played RG this year), Ohrnberger (who barely played at all this year) and Wendell (who is undersized and was on the practice squad most of the year). I'm not comfortable assuming that any of those 3 guys is ready to step up and start at RG day 1 if Neal retires, or to depend on any of those 3 guys for significant playing time if Neal returns and is injury prone. I consider get a starting caliber RG in the first 2 rounds of the draft a necessity.

2. At DL we currently have a starting rotation of Mike Wright, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren. Assuming Wilfork is back, that is adequate, but I count Wright as a starter and not a backup. I think that Jarvis Green is probably gone, and he is certainly upgradeable. Ron Brace is a backup NT and not a DE. And while Myron Pryor was used some at DE, he is not a classic 3-4 DE. Hence my desire to add at least a developmental prospect with some upside to the roster, to replace Green. That player doesn't have to be capable of producing much his rookie year, but I'd like to get someone who can develop into a solid 3-4 DE, and perhaps bring some of the athleticism we lost with Richard Seymour.

The thing is I highly doubt BB throws a rookie out to start and protect Brady from day one. IMO there are three starting caliber OG who can start from day one and that is Ducasse, Iupati, and maybe Johnson or Asamough but I doubt any of them come in and start over Rich. I agree that depth may be needed at DE but I doubt it comes in the second round. Yes Wright will start but Pryor played well this season and I can see him playing alot next season. The key is locking up Wilfork ASAP. If Brace is used primarily as a backup NT next season, I wonder even more why BB made the pick. Wright played NT as well if im not mistaken so why go out and draft a backup or a safety net in the second round?

 

[mayoclinic]

The thing is I highly doubt BB throws a rookie out to start and protect Brady from day one. IMO there are three starting caliber OG who can start from day one and that is Ducasse, Iupati, and maybe Johnson or Asamough but I doubt any of them come in and start over Rich.[/url]

Why is that? Ohrnberger hasn't shown that he's capable of making the 4 man roster, much less starting at RG. BB started Mankins at LG as a rookie from the first game, so there's an existence proof that he will start a rookie if he thinks he's ready.

I agree that depth may be needed at DE but I doubt it comes in the second round. Yes Wright will start but Pryor played well this season and I can see him playing alot next season. The key is locking up Wilfork ASAP. If Brace is used primarily as a backup NT next season, I wonder even more why BB made the pick. Wright played NT as well if im not mistaken so why go out and draft a backup or a safety net in the second round?

I never said I wanted 3-4 DE depth in the 2nd round. I listed it further down under my list of "developmental" needs (3rd round or later). I'd like to see us pick up someone like Clifton Geathers of South Carolina or Brandon Deaderick of Alabama.

 

[mgteich]

For me there should be three givens in this draft: replacements for Neal, Green and Thomas. Personally, I would consider trading down and up to get all three within the first 42 picks.

THEN, we can breathe a sigh of relief and move on.

We can call Green an ungradeable backup if we wish. In any case, we need to replace his reps as a 3-4 DE.

Much can be done free agency, but I see these three as draft needs.

I'm not comfortable with what we have on our roster for RG and for depth at 3-4 DE.

1. At OG/C we have Mankins (who should be an RFA and will be tendered, if not actually extended) and Koppen. Neal has been injury prone and age and injuries have taken a toll on his skills, and he may not be back for 2010. Behind him we have Connolly (who has nice versatility at center and some size, but the OL suffered quite a bit when he played RG this year), Ohrnberger (who barely played at all this year) and Wendell (who is undersized and was on the practice squad most of the year). I'm not comfortable assuming that any of those 3 guys is ready to step up and start at RG day 1 if Neal retires, or to depend on any of those 3 guys for significant playing time if Neal returns and is injury prone. I consider get a starting caliber RG in the first 2 rounds of the draft a necessity.

2. At DL we currently have a starting rotation of Mike Wright, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren. Assuming Wilfork is back, that is adequate, but I count Wright as a starter and not a backup. I think that Jarvis Green is probably gone, and he is certainly upgradeable. Ron Brace is a backup NT and not a DE. And while Myron Pryor was used some at DE, he is not a classic 3-4 DE. Hence my desire to add at least a developmental prospect with some upside to the roster, to replace Green. That player doesn't have to be capable of producing much his rookie year, but I'd like to get someone who can develop into a solid 3-4 DE, and perhaps bring some of the athleticism we lost with Richard Seymour.

 

[mayoclinic]

For me there should be three givens in this draft: replacements for Neal, Green and Thomas. Personally, I would consider trading down and up to get all three within the first 42 picks.

THEN, we can breathe a sigh of relief and move on.

We can call Green an ungradeable backup if we wish. In any case, we need to replace his reps as a 3-4 DE.

Much can be done free agency, but I see these three as draft needs.

I see replacements for Neal and a pass rusher as being high priority needs. I'm not sure that I see needing to spend a top 50 pick on a replacement for Jarvis Green. I'm ok with Wright-Wilfork-Warren starting, and think that we could find a developmental guy who can replace Green in the 3rd or 4th round.

I like the 3-4 DE prospects much better in 2011 as far as the high end goes, particularly Cameron Heyward and Jared Crick. Lawrence Marsh and Cameron Jordan also have a lot of potential.

 

[TriplecHamp]

The thing is I highly doubt BB throws a rookie out to start and protect Brady from day one. IMO there are three starting caliber OG who can start from day one and that is Ducasse, Iupati, and maybe Johnson or Asamough but I doubt any of them come in and start over Rich.[/url]

Why is that? Ohrnberger hasn't shown that he's capable of making the 4 man roster, much less starting at RG. BB started Mankins at LG as a rookie from the first game, so there's an existence proof that he will start a rookie if he thinks he's ready.



I never said I wanted 3-4 DE depth in the 2nd round. I listed it further down under my list of "developmental" needs (3rd round or later). I'd like to see us pick up someone like Clifton Geathers of South Carolina or Brandon Deaderick of Alabama.

I said I doubt it not that its not going to happen, Mankins coming out was a better prospect than Ducasse and I certainly wouldn't call it the norm for a rookie to come in and start. Ohrnberger has played this season and hasnt shown any reason for me to believe that he wouldn't get the nod over a rookie unless that rookie proves himself to be ready.

I doubt your getting a Richard Seymour type athlete beyond the third round but Geathers and Deaderick are both good prospects.

 

[mayoclinic]

I doubt your getting a Richard Seymour type athlete beyond the third round but Geathers and Deaderick are both good prospects.

Except for Suh there aren't any Richard Seymour type athletes in the 1st round. But guys like Geathers and Corey Wootten of Northwestern have considerably more athleticism than Mike Wright or Jarvis Green.

 

[Mark Morse]

I could end up with these players:

2nd: ILB Brandon Spikes
2nd: DE/OLB Greg Hardy or Carlos Dunlap or?
2nd: WR Arrelious Benn
2nd: OLB Eric Norwood
2nd/3rd: OG Vladimir Ducasse (keep the New England boy home, plus he's a Haiti kid, AND he contributes to the internationalization of our OL)
3rd: WR Mardy Gilyard (I think this kid is going to be a real player in the NFL)
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as DE Antonio Coleman
4th: more OL or more DE/OLB such as C Matt Tennant
5th: WR/KR/Specialist Jacoby Ford

If Benn last to the 2nd round, I'd be trading up to get him. I think he is a 1st round selection.
No way Gilyard lasts to round 3