Tomlinson is not Superman

[Oswlek]

but those numbers are with taking away his longest run. The same can be said about any RB or any offensive player for that matter. Why don't we go back and view Randy Moss career stats without any receptions for 30+ yards? I bet he looks average.

to me it's like the arguement in baseball that a pitcher only threw "1 bad pitch". Guess what? he still threw the pitch and it was still jacked out for a 3 run bomb which decided the game.

You are right that LDT earned those big runs, but that does not limit the education use of extracting single plays. If LDTs numbers drop by that much by taking away a single long run that it is certainly possible that, if NE stops runs over 10 yards (which they are the best or second best in the league at) that LDT could be limited.

Obviously a case could be made that, in order to limit the long runs it might leave a team open to allowing more consistent success.

But it is still useful information.

 

[letekro]

Crappy Statistic Alert:

According to the "success rate" formula, Joseph Addai and Correll Buckhalter are the two best backs in the NFL (!)

 

[BelichickFan]

Crappy Statistic Alert:

According to the "success rate" formula, Joseph Addai and Correll Buckhalter are the two best backs in the NFL (!)

No, that's not what they're saying. Statistics often don't lie, people just misinterpret them. The Success Rate merely says those two have a "successful" run more often than other RB. That doesn't make them the best in the league, just that they're more consistently getting the minimum required for the down and distance to be successful on that down.

 

[DaBruinz]

Corey Dillon had 199 carries and 13 TD's

Taking nothing away from LT, but in all years prior to 2006, his TD ratio compared to his number of carries, is no where near as Good as Dillon has done this season. In fact, its worse.

NEM -
Dillon scored a TD every 15.3 carries
Tomlinson scored a TD every 12.4 carries.

Tomlinson was better this year.

 

[Oswlek]

NEM -
Dillon scored a TD every 15.3 carries
Tomlinson scored a TD every 12.4 carries.

Tomlinson was better this year.

Yes. There is no reason to try to skew things to say that NE's RBs are anywhere near as good as SD's. They clearly have an edge there.

Thankfully, Dillon and Maroney are racing Tonlinson and Turner this weekend or competing against them specifically. Tonlinson and Turner must solve NE's run defense, which is better than SD's.

 

[DaBruinz]

well you guys better hope Seymour, Wilfork and Warren get more penetration than last year at Foxboro or LT will put up 130 again.

I have no doubt that they will. Why? Because last year, Wilfork didn't have his timing down and he actually wasn't as quick to the point of attack as he needed to be. They corrected the error at the bye week and Wilfork played nearly lights out for the rest of the season.

Tomlinson can put up 130 yards. If he gets 130 yards and NO TDs, then the Pats defense has been successful.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yes. There is no reason to try to skew things to say that NE's RBs are anywhere near as good as SD's. They clearly have an edge there.

Thankfully, Dillon and Maroney are racing Tonlinson and Turner this weekend or competing against them specifically. Tonlinson and Turner must solve NE's run defense, which is better than SD's.

Oswlek - I wasn't saying that NEs RBs were bad. I was just pointing out a clear error on NEM's part.

Your other statements are 100% correct.

 

[bolts_fan]

This year's average is sick, sure. 3.9 and 4.3 in two years before ? Nice, but . . .

But what? Even in those 3.9 and 4.3, he got 17 & 18 rushing TD's... any team would KILL for those numbers.

 

[The Dude]

But what? Even in those 3.9 and 4.3, he got 17 & 18 rushing TD's... any team would KILL for those numbers.

any team would kill for the weak schedule you had as well

 

[BelichickFan]

But what? Even in those 3.9 and 4.3, he got 17 & 18 rushing TD's... any team would KILL for those numbers.

Well our red zone defense has been good and we haven't allowed a lot of trips into the red zone. So we'll see.

BTW, I'm picking the Chargers to win but you guys are totally unrealistic with your apparently virtually perfect team.

 

[mgcolby]

As long as he doesn't get the ball on first AND second down. 4 + 4 = 3rd and 2. They'll be no pressure on Rivers with that scenario.

I didn't literally mean 4 yards every carry, I was talking about Average. He will no doubt have at least one 20+ yard run.

 

[GO_BRONCOS]

don't worry....you will know him pretty well after the game...

 

[sanvara]

OK, let's get this straight. Last year means nothing, absolutely nothing. THe following has changed since last year:

1) Seymour was hurt and missed the entire second half
2) Wilfork was in the middle of his second year funk. NE made him move off the ball a yard so he could decipher a play better and since then he has been clearly one of the best 2-3 NTs in the league.
3) Willie was playing with a broken hand
4) Colvin is playing significantly better
5) Beisel, Brown, Gus Scott and Starks will not see the field.

Please stop using last year as a basis for how SD will do this week. Or, better yet, I hope that you are a prominent coach with SD.

Exactly. Last year means nothing and the Pats Superbowl wins mean nothing as well because this is not the same team that Pats had in those past years and there is different competition. And Bill and Marty's playoff records mean nothing because these are different teams than in past years. The only thing that really matters is what has happened this year with these players. So I agree with you, lets not base what will happen Sunday on what has happened last year, or two or three years ago or even further back.

 

[bolts_fan]

Well our red zone defense has been good and we haven't allowed a lot of trips into the red zone. So we'll see.

BTW, I'm picking the Chargers to win but you guys are totally unrealistic with your apparently virtually perfect team.

Not me. I'm a realist. And I think that despite what the stats say that the Patriots have the edge. Forget home field and 14-2. Those things mean squat. Sure we better in some areas and still very good in others, but that does not equal playoff success.

But do I think that my Chargers CAN win this game? Yes, I do. I think they can, but they have to play essentially perfect to do that... but playing perfect and being perfect are two completely different beast.