Welcome to PatsFans.com

Tomlinson is not Superman

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JR4, Jan 12, 2007.

  1. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    2,785
    Likes Received:
    18
    Ratings:
    +27 / 1 / -2

    He is very very good. But something interesting.

    When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
    transforms him from average to superman.
    Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

    Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
    Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
    Den 27/86 3.18y/c
    Den 19/81 4.26y/c
    Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

    So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
    we are dealing with a managable running back. :D

    Not so Baaad! :rolleyes:
  2. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    LT running the ball doesn't scare me (against our defense). LT in a seem route in the open field one-on-one with our safeties does. I am very content to give him 4 yards a carry and let them think he is running well than have them throw him out in the slot.
  3. Pujo

    Pujo Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    Well, we can't know that for sure. If he were Superman, he'd have an alter ego, and I suppose it COULD be Tomlinson. Come to think of it, how come we never see both of them at the same time?
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    As Football Outsiders says, he's the #1 RB but #13 on "Successful Runs" which means he's just above average on the median play but "Superman" on breaking long ones. Controlling his long ones is the defensive key.
  5. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

    The two columns on the right are the Success Rate. The second to the right is the % and the rightmost is the rank.
  6. scott99

    scott99 Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    3,330
    Likes Received:
    38
    Ratings:
    +86 / 65 / -56

    #87 Jersey

    Year Team G GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 1st
    2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6 54 10 7 67
    2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5 76 14 12 90
    2003 San Diego Chargers 16 16 313 1645 5.3 73 13 12 81
    2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17 6 68
    2005 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18 8 71
    2006 San Diego Chargers 16 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28 12 81
    TOTAL 95 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100 57 458

    Those stats sure look like Superman to me. I'm a huge Pats fan, but after 6 years, Tomlinson is already a Hall of Fame 1st ballot lock. 100 TD's after 6 years ? That sure sounds like Superman, the guy is incredible.
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    This year's average is sick, sure. 3.9 and 4.3 in two years before ? Nice, but . . .
  8. SVN

    SVN Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2005
    Messages:
    22,550
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +44 / 0 / -0

    dont know about seattle but denver has lynch, bal has ed reed

    we dont have rodney :mad:
  9. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2006
    Messages:
    2,221
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    Actually -- your sig is the key. :eek:

    Both of their RBs will get past the LOS -- but how far? Pats LBs and DBs have missed some tackles this season. Like to see them work hard for their yards -- no gifts in this game.

    As long as he doesn't get the ball on first AND second down. 4 + 4 = 3rd and 2. They'll be no pressure on Rivers with that scenario.
  10. LT=MVP

    LT=MVP Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2007
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    :blahblah:

    Such a completely useless view point. You could say that about ANY great back in history. I hope you guys underestimate him.
  11. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    No need to get all thin skinned, he's just saying that Tomlinson can be stopped by good defenses and had numbers to prove it - he didn't say other great RB weren't the same.
  12. lander

    lander Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    well you guys better hope Seymour, Wilfork and Warren get more penetration than last year at Foxboro or LT will put up 130 again.
  13. tssd888

    tssd888 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    54
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0


    but those numbers are with taking away his longest run. The same can be said about any RB or any offensive player for that matter. Why don't we go back and view Randy Moss career stats without any receptions for 30+ yards? I bet he looks average.

    to me it's like the arguement in baseball that a pitcher only threw "1 bad pitch". Guess what? he still threw the pitch and it was still jacked out for a 3 run bomb which decided the game.
  14. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    OK, let's get this straight. Last year means nothing, absolutely nothing. THe following has changed since last year:

    1) Seymour was hurt and missed the entire second half
    2) Wilfork was in the middle of his second year funk. NE made him move off the ball a yard so he could decipher a play better and since then he has been clearly one of the best 2-3 NTs in the league.
    3) Willie was playing with a broken hand
    4) Colvin is playing significantly better
    5) Beisel, Brown, Gus Scott and Starks will not see the field.

    Please stop using last year as a basis for how SD will do this week. Or, better yet, I hope that you are a prominent coach with SD.
  15. Flying Fungi

    Flying Fungi Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    2,416
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    Let's add a Pat Kirwin observation to this:

    http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9918816

  16. lander

    lander Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2007
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Like I said, you'd better hope for better penetration from your D-line.
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2007
  17. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    Actually, I just hope that they hold their gaps. NE does not need penetration, they just need to not get pushed.
  18. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    Yeah, we just need him to see nothing to run through, to have to cut outside and find a LB filling the gap.
  19. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,411
    Likes Received:
    144
    Ratings:
    +297 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    You're right but the numbers fit with Football Outsiders' stats that Tomlinson is the best in the league due to his long runs and just above average (13th in the league) on the median play. I've said all week, stopping the LONG runs is the key for our defense this week. The rest will take care of itself.
  20. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    9,858
    Likes Received:
    27
    Ratings:
    +50 / 2 / -0

    Well, I've never actually seen the two of them in the same room together at the same time, so I can't say for sure...

    But Tomlinson is currently the all time leader in yards per game at something like 127 yards per game for his career average.

    That's phenomenal... but what does it mean?

    Not much really, as the Pats have won against some pretty similar competition in the past, including Edgerin James when he was with Indy who had a similar per game average (123 yards per game if I remember my talk radio facts) and a few other good RBs as well

    I expect that Tomlinson will get his yards but the game will be decided on how well the Patriots Red Zone defense does. Hold SD to FGs and we're in good shape.

    Now the Patriots need to make the most of their opportunities as well. In my opinion we squandered too many Red Zone opportunities ourselves last week, leaving with FGs instead of TDs on too many occasions.

    We need to make sure that we convert TDs while holding SD to FGs - that's the main key to the game as I see it

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>