Full 2 Round Mock with Surprises

[Wilfork#75]

There might be a few surprises here but this is a mock based on rumors, reports, gut feeling and just some common sense. This is purely my opinion.

1. Hou- DE- Jadaveon Clowney- South Carolina
This pick looks like it’s between Clowney and Bortles and to me that is a no-brainer. You take BPA and while Clowney certainly isn’t seen as the same kind of prospect as he was a year ago, he is still the most talented player in this draft and well ahead of Bortles.

2. *Atl (from Stl)- Khalil Mack- Buffalo
Atlanta moves up ahead of Jacksonville to grab the other elite pass rusher in this draft.

3. Jax- QB- Blake Bortles- UCF
I think the Jaguars would prefer Clowney or Mack, but will have to settle for what they are hoping is their franchise QB in Bortles. They grab the top QB on the board who just happens to be a local guy.

4. Cle- QB- Derek Carr- Fresno State
I’ve been saying for weeks I think Carr is the #2 QB taken and could go either #4 to Cleveland or #5 to Oakland. Cleveland can’t afford to not get their guy at QB so they pull the trigger early in the 1st round.

5. Oak- Sammy Watkins- Clemson
Oakland goes BPA which would be between Watkins and Robinson. WR is the bigger need so they get an elite WR for whoever is the Raiders QB.

6. Stl* (from Atl)- OT- Greg Robinson
Perfect scenario for Stl. They move down, get a boatload of picks and still get their guy in Robinson who is an elite LT prospect.

7. TB- OT- Jake Matthews- Texas A&M
For most of the year Matthews was the consensus #1 O-lineman in the draft and arguably the best player overall. Robinson may have surpassed him but that doesn’t make Matthews any less talented. He should really solidify that Tampa O-line at LT.

8. Det** (from Min)- WR- Mike Evans- Texas A&M
There is a bit of a drop off at WR after Evans so Detroit jumps ahead of Buffalo to get their guy. They may also look to move even higher if Watkins falls a bit.

9. Buf- TE- Eric Ebron- UNC
The Bills still need to add weapons to compete so they add the top TE in the draft.

10. Chi*** (from Det via Min)- DT- Aaron Donald- Pitt
Chicago is in love with Aaron Donald and jump ahead of the Giants to make sure they get him.

11. Ten- OLB- Anthony Barr- UCLA
Just a really good match of talent, need and fit.

12. NYG- OT- Taylor Lewan- Michigan
The Giants need to protect Eli better and Lewan is a very good OT prospect

13. Stl- S- Haha Clinton-Dix- Alabama
The Rams fill their other major need with the top safety in the draft. Clinton-Dix and TJ McDonald could make an excellent safety tandem.

14. Mia**** (from Chi via Min)- OL- Zack Martin- ND
Miami is desperate for O-line help and there is a decent drop off in talent after the top 4. They would have loved Lewan to be in range but won’t be too disappointed with Martin. They had to move up with 3 teams potentially looking at OL coming up next.

15. Pitt- CB- Justin Gilbert- Okla State
Steelers really need help in the secondary and grab the best CB in the draft

16. Dal- S- Calvin Pryor- Louisville
Dallas addressed the DL in free agency with Henry Melton, now they add a thumper to their mediocre secondary. I still wouldn’t rule out DL though (Jernigan or Ealy would make sense) and if it weren’t for Romo’s huge contract I think they would be a potential landing spot for Manziel.

17. Bal- WR- Marquise Lee- USC
Seems like a Baltimore pick. They get a big name from a big school that should come in and make an impact.

18. NYJ- WR- Brandin Cooks- Oregon State
The Jets reportedly love Cooks and he would add something they currently don’t have, actual talent at the WR position (sorry, couldn’t help take a shot there).

19. Min**** (from Mia)- QB- Zach Mettenberger- LSU
Probably the biggest shock so far, the Vikings love Mettenberger and think he is their guy, but #8 is a little too high. They don’t want to risk losing him by trying to trade up from their 2nd rounder so instead move back a few times, add multiple picks and get their guy. Similar to the way Buffalo moved back and got EJ Manuel.

20. Ari- DE- Koly Ealy- Missouri
Cards grab the top edge rusher on the board

21. GB- DT- Timmy Jernigan- FSU
The talk was Green Bay was moving towards the smaller, quicker DL and Jernigan would fit that mold while still being excellent against the run.

22. Phi- CB- Darqueze Dennard- Mich State
The Eagles still need help in the secondary and grab the 2nd best CB in the draft.

23. KC-WR- Odell Beckham Jr- LSU
KC still needs a receiving threat opposite Dwayne Bowe and Beckham is a versatile weapon.

24. Cin- QB- Jonnie Manziel- Texas A&M
The biggest problem with Manziel is trying to find the right fit. While I’m not a huge fan of his and hate his fit with the Patriots, I do think this could be a great move for Cinci. They clearly don’t love Dalton and I don’t think they believe he is the guy. They have a great setup for Manziel with a quick, elusive RB in Gio Bernand, a great weapon on the outside in AJ Green and two quality TE’s. I think Cinci would be one place that could design an offense around Manziel to be successful.

25. SD- Kyle Fuller- Virginia Tech
Kyle Fuller is just a great football player and would instantly upgrade the Chargers secondary.

26. Cle- MLB- CJ Mosley- Alabama
Most people expect Cleveland to go QB and WR in round 1 but they can’t pass up the chance to get a falling talent like Mosley. While they may have over-drafted Carr earlier they make up for it by getting a steal with a top 10 talent in Mosley falling to them at 26.

27. NO- DE- Dee Ford- Auburn
New Orleans needs to improve their pass rush to take the next step and Ford is a great fit as an edge rusher.

28. Car- OT- Morgan Moses- Virginia
Does Carolina actually have 5 offensive lineman at the moment? They really need some help up front on offense and Moses is the top OT available.

29.***** Hou (from NE)- QB- Teddy Bridgewater- Louisville
Houston still needs a QB and they get a steal in Bridgewater who, while I don’t love, I certainly think he is the best QB in the draft.

30. SF- WR- Kelvin Benjamin- FSU
The 49ers are forever looking for weapons for Kaepernick and with Boldin coming towards the end of his career they need a physical outside threat.

31. Den- LB- Ryan Shazier- Ohio State
They lost Wesley Woodyard so they need to add talent and athleticism to their LBer group.

32. Sea- OG- Trai Turner- LSU
A bit of a surprise but Seattle has a tendency of doing that in the draft. Turner is quickly moving up boards and by draft day I think he is the #1 OG taken.

Trades
*Stl trades 1(2) to Atl for 1(6) + 2 (37) +2015 2nd and 3rd

** Min trades 1(8) to Det for 1(10) + 4(111)

*** Min trades 1(10) to Chi for 1(14) + 3(82)

**** Min trades 1(14) to Mia for 1(19) + 3(81) + 5(155)

***** New England trades 1(29) + 4(130) to Hou for 2(33) + 4(101) +6(181)
On points this trade favors the Pats and could probably be done without the extra 6th, but that’s a small price to pay to move up for a QB


Round 2

33. *Stl (from NE)- DT- Ra’Shede Hageman- Min
Hell of a draft so far for the Rams grabbing the top OT, S and the DT with arguably the highest potential in the draft.

34. **SF (from Wash)- DL- Stephon Tuitt- ND
While it makes no sense that Washington would actually make a smart move like this, it’s a mock draft so why not? Washington moves down and grabs extra picks in a loaded draft. San Fran has a boatload of picks so they can afford to be aggressive. Tuitt is a great fit for that 49er defensive front.

35. Cle- WR- Allen Robinson- Penn State
While not spectacular this is a pretty solid haul for Cleveland.

36. Oak- OT- Cyrus Koundijo- Alabama

37. *NE (from Stl)- DT- Louis Nix III- ND
With quite a few options on the board at 29 the Pats knew they could still get a quality player with two modest trades down. I still think Nix is a top 10 talent and he would be a perfect Wilfork replacement

38. TB- WR- Davante Adams- Fresno State

39. Jax- DE- Demarcus Lawrence- Boise State

40. Min- CB- Bradley Roby- Ohio State

41. Buf- OG- Xavier Su’a Filo- UCLA

42. Ten- RB- Tre Mason – Auburn

43. NYG- TE- Troy Niklas- ND

44. Stl- CB- Jason Verrett- TCU

45. Det- S- Jimmie Ward- Northern Illinois

46. Pit- NT- Justin Ellis- Louisiana Tech
A bit of a shocker but Ellis is rising fast. For me he went from one of the biggest sleepers to a bit overrated.

47. Dal- DE- Scott Crichton- Oregon State

48. Bal- C- Marcus Martin- USC
Just seems like a Baltimore draft pick.

49. NYJ- TE- Jace Amaro- Texas Tech

50. Mia- OL- Joel Bitonio- Nevada
Need more than 1 O-Lineman

51. Chi- S- Deone- Bucannon- Washington State

52. Ari- QB- Jimmy Garoppolo- Eastern Illinois

53. GB- MLB- Chris Borland- Wisconsin

54. Phi- OLB- Trent Murphy- Stanford

55. Cin- CB- Marcus Roberson- Florida

56. **Wash (from SF)- OG- David Yankey- Stanford

57. SD- OLB- Kyle Van Noy- BYU

58. NO- OLB- Jeremiah Attaochu- Georgia Tech

59. Ind- CB/S- Lamarcus Joyner- FSU

60. Car- WR- Jordan Matthews- Vanderbilt

61. **Wash (from SF)- OT- JuWuan James- Tennessee

62. NE-TE- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins- Washington
TE is one of the Pats biggest needs and ASJ is the last of the top flight guys available.

63. Den- DT- Dominique Easley- Florida

64. Sea- WR- Martavis Bryant- Clemson


Trades
*New England trades 2(33) to Stl for 2(37) + 5(153) + 6(188)

**Wash trades 2(34) to SF for 2(56) +2(61)

 

[Wilfork#75]

Patriots Picks


*New England Trades 1(29) + 4(130) to Houston for 2(33) + 4(101) + 6(181)*

*New England Trades 2(33) to St Louis for 2(37) + 5(153) +6(188)*

2(37). NT- Louis Nix III- ND
I can’t say much more about this guy, I loves me some Irish Chocolate. He can step in from day 1 as a rotational run stuffer with the potential to develop into a 3 down player and the eventual Vince Wilfork replacement as the anchor of the defense.

2(62). TE- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
There is quite a drop off after the top 4 TE’s in this draft so if one drops to 62 they are going to be very tough to pass up. I prefer Troy Niklas to ASJ but with the way it fell I can’t be too disappointed getting him at this stage.

*Trade 3(93) + 2015 3rdto Atlanta for 3(68)*
Pats move up to grab one of the top C in the draft while Atlanta moves down to get back a future pick they traded away earlier.

3(68 from Atl). C- Weston Richburg- Colorado State
Richburg is my top rated C in the draft and I think there is quite a drop off after him and Marcus Martin. I’m fine with trading away a future 3rdround pick in order to move up and get my guy. He seems like an ideal fit for the Pats blocking scheme.

* New England Trades 4(101) to Jacksonville for 4(114) + 5(159)*

4(114 from Jax)- CB-Louchiez Purifoy- Florida
This may seem like an unusual pick but the more I think about it the more I like it. Purifoy would likely be our #5 CB (or #4 if Ryan moves to safety) but he would be able to step in right away and contribute as a special teams ace. He is an excellent gunner and return man that also has a lot of potential to develop as a cover corner. He is very raw as a CB but has good athleticism despite not testing well. If you can get a contributor in the 4thround I think you’re doing okay.

4(140 comp)- OG- Brandon Thomas- Clemson
Thomas is a top 75 talent that blew out his knee and could be a steal. I’m happy taking a chance on him at this stage and sitting him for a year to get healthy. He is a talented OG that could be the eventual Mankins replacement at LG.

5(153 from Stl)- QB- Aaron Murray- Georgia
While I think it’s too early to look for the eventual Brady replacement we still need a replacement for Mallett in 2015 at backup QB. Murray might now have huge upside but he is tough, experienced and a leader.

5(159 from Bal via Jax)- LB- Kevin Pierre-Louis- BC
We need more depth and athleticism at LBer and I think KPL is as good an option as any in this draft. He is very athletic, instinctive and great value at this stage of the draft.

6(181 from Hou)- RB- Rajion Neal- Tennessee
Neal is my favourite RB in the draft and I can’t understand why he isn’t rated higher. He can run between the tackles, outside, catch out of the backfield, split out as a receiver and most importantly for a Pats rookie RB, he is a really solid blocker. After averaging over 5YPC in the SEC I think he would be an excellent #3 RB for us.

6(188 from Stl)- DE/TE- Larry Webster- Bloomsburg
Lottery ticket who has huge upside as a TE. He is rising fast and may not make it this far but certainly worth a shot if he’s available.

6(198 from Phi)- MLB- Max Bullough- Michigan State
For me, the most important traits for MLB are instincts and intelligence and Bullough has both. He’s tough and experienced leader with great instincts and football fundamentals. He’s not an elite athlete and has some character questions but he is a great fit and great value as a backup LBer.

6(206)- SS- Vinnie Sunseri- Alabama
Sunseri is much more talented than a 6thround pick, but an ACL injury ended his season and didn’t allow him to work out for teams. Sunseri’s floor is probably a key special teamer with the potential to be a solid SS because of his smarts and instincts.

7(244)- FB- Trey Millard- Oklahoma
Millard has been my binky from the beginning and now he is great value. The most versatile weapon in the draft, Millard could go a long way to helping replace the production of Hernandez. He will likely need a redshirt year to recover from injury.


UDFAs

QB- Kenny Guiton- Ohio State- If Murray isn’t available in the mid rounds I would be fine with waiting and taking a chance on Guiton as the #3 QB this season.
QB- Jeff Matthews- Cornell
S- Nick Williams- North Alabama- My favourite UDFA, Williams is the closest thing to Cam Chancellor in the draft.
S- Jonathon Dowling- Western Kentucky
DE- Ben Gardner- Stanford- Blue collar DE that could be a solid rotational guy
DT- Zach Kerr- Delaware
DT- Khyri Thornton- Southern Misss
DE- Terrence Fede- Marist
LB- Brock Coyle- Montana
LB/FB- Nikita Whitlock- Wake Forest
CB- Robert Nelson- Arizona State
OG- Chris Burnette- Georgia
OT- Cornelius Lucas- Kansas State
RB- Damien Williams- Oklahoma
RB- Brandon Bigelow- Cal
WR- Jeremy Gallon- Michigan
WR/HB- Marcus Lucas- Missouri


Final Notes

- 12 draft picks seems like too many to make the roster but with the way this draft fell I think it’s a good balance of initial contributors, role players, developmental players and redshirt candidates that could contribute in the future. I would expect Nix, ASJ and Richburg to compete for a starting spot or at least be a primary backup with a significant role. Purifoy, KPL and Neal would all be role players intiailly with the potential to develop into more. Thomas, Murray, Sunseri and Millard are all IR/PUP candidates who could contribute in the future. Bullough would be competing for a roster spot as a backup LBer and Webster is a lottery ticket.

 

[Big-T]

If the Pats traded back and missed out on Shazier, Hageman & Tuitt just to get Nix then a lot of people on this board will probably not be very happy

Not a huge fan of a couple of the Patriots picks but that's down to differences in opinion (not keen on drafting a 3rd NT and think Richburg - and any C under 300lbs for that matter is too small) but I can see your rationale behind the picks. I do like the KPL & Purifoy picks though and some nice UDFA pick ups.

Great looking drafts for Miami & St Louis especially - Miami get 2 day 1 starters at Guard and the Rams get 3 (maybe even 4) day 1 starters including the best OT in the draft, not to mention the future picks.

Detroit would be dangerous on Offense with Megatron, Tate, Evans & Reggie Bush to match up against.

It's always good seeing picks for all 32 teams, seeing how people stack up teams needs is interesting and it takes some effort to do as well.

 

[Luxusdk]

Wondering where we get more pass rush from with this draft, not that im surpriced #75 going for Nix and that could be a nice pick. But the lack of LB/DE seems strange to me. You going with a NT + SS in a pass happy League

 

[patfanken]

Great effort and well thought out. However as usual with these posts, are the things that pop out are usually the negatives and I have a few.

1. It freakin killed me to see you pass on BOTH guys I'd take in a minute (Hageman and Tuitt), in order to pick a guy who is entering the league 10 years too late. Siliga is a decent young run stuffer. A PROVEN run stuffer. Wilfolk is a premier run stuffer. Perhaps after his injury he might even be one still. SO WHY in god's green earth would you take ANOTHER run stuffer when you KNOW that run stuffing is a devaluing necessity.

What this team DOESN'T need are 3 quality run stuffers. We DO need people who can push the pocket either at DT, DE or NT. Hageman is the obvious choice here in that he has that rare combination of size, length, and explosiveness that COULD make him an elite interior DLman. BUT he's also a guy who has a lower floor than you might like in your first pick, so I can see why Tuitt might end up being the guy. Not quite the explosiveness of Hageman, but a good combination of size quickness, length and position flexibility. I need you to explain why you pass up not just one but the 2 guys who best seem to fit what we need, in order top pick a limited player who is redundant the minute he signs his contract.

2. This is a small one, but I don't see Houston trading up to the Pats since none of the 3 teams picking after the Pats have need of a QB.

3. This is another nitpicker. If Niklas and ASJ are both on the board, explain why you'd take ASJ. I am really starting to like Niklas better because I think he has more upside. I'd be interested in learning why you'd take ASJ ahead of Niklas, though I'd be OK if he was the guy

4. I don't get the CB pick. Nothing really stands out about him. I'd much rather take Jordan Tripp or Christian Jones with that pick.

5. I like the Thomas and KPL picks, but beyond that I'm kind of down on a QB that high. I just don't see the need. There are too many vet back ups available, besides I think NEXT year is the year to start drafting "the next guy". The other reason is (assuming Mallett is still here after the draft) I only want to carry 2 QB's this season. I don't want to use that roster spot on a clipboard carrier

6. Philosophically, I'm against the idea of 12 picks, even in such a good draft. Too much waste. I'd be much happier with 8 picks and those other 4 you gathered in your trades, be used for 2015 picks.

Again JMHO, and it doesn't change my appreciation for the effort and thought that went into this

 

[Wilfork#75]

If the Pats traded back and missed out on Shazier, Hageman & Tuitt just to get Nix then a lot of people on this board will probably not be very happy

Not a huge fan of a couple of the Patriots picks but that's down to differences in opinion (not keen on drafting a 3rd NT and think Richburg - and any C under 300lbs for that matter is too small) but I can see your rationale behind the picks. I do like the KPL & Purifoy picks though and some nice UDFA pick ups.

Great looking drafts for Miami & St Louis especially - Miami get 2 day 1 starters at Guard and the Rams get 3 (maybe even 4) day 1 starters including the best OT in the draft, not to mention the future picks.

Detroit would be dangerous on Offense with Megatron, Tate, Evans & Reggie Bush to match up against.

It's always good seeing picks for all 32 teams, seeing how people stack up teams needs is interesting and it takes some effort to do as well.

To me C is still a huge need and I think Richburg is the #1 C in the draft. I wish he were a little bigger but I don't think that impacts his play and more than makes up for his size with intelligence and athleticism. One of the reasons I'm not too concerned with a smaller C is everyone seems to be moving to the smaller, faster defenses and the need to combat those monster NT's is lessening. That's also part of the reason I like Nix so much is because its going against the grain of the rest of the league. When everyone else is zigging we zag and take advantage of market inefficiencies. While everyone else is getting smaller and quicker I want to get tougher and meaner and punch people in the mouth.

Wondering where we get more pass rush from with this draft, not that im surpriced #75 going for Nix and that could be a nice pick. But the lack of LB/DE seems strange to me. You going with a NT + SS in a pass happy League

DE is certainly a position I considered but you can only draft guys that are available and this is such a weak draft. All of the top pass rushers were off the board at 29 and I don't rate guys like Kareem Martin too highly. I was very close to mocking James Gayle to the Pats but went for Purifoy instead with the idea that DE is something I think we will still address is free agency. I think we will eventually sign Will Smith and should target some guys during the second wave of free agency after June 1 cuts.

My plan for the pass rush ever since we signed Revis and Browner has been to move away from depending on individuals to create pressure and to rely more on scheme. With a potentially elite secondary that could play a lot of single safety press man coverage, my focus was to try and stop the run with as little resources as possible to free up our LBers to make plays. If we can limit the run with a stout front 4 and play single safety man coverage that really offers a ton of flexibility for our LBers. We know how much BB preaches disguise on defense and having that kind of versatility makes our options almost limitless. With this kind of defense I think it would really play to the strengths of guys like Hightower and Collins.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Great effort and well thought out. However as usual with these things the things that pop out are the negatives and I have a few

1. This is a small one, but I don't see Houston trading up to the Pats since none of the 3 teams picking after the Pats have need of a QB.

3. This is another nitpicker. If Niklas and ASJ are both on the board, explain why you'd take ASJ. I am really starting to like Niklas better because I think he has more upside. I'd be interested in learning why you'd take ASJ ahead of Niklas, though I'd be OK if he was the guy

4. I don't get the CB pick. Nothing really stands out about him. I'd much rather take Jordan Tripp or Christian Jones with that pick.

5. I like the Thomas and KPL picks, but beyond that I'm kind of down on a QB that high. I just don't see the need. There are too many vet back ups available, besides I think NEXT year is the year to start drafting "the next guy". The other reason is (assuming Mallett is still here after the draft) I only want to carry 2 QB's this season. I don't want to use that roster spot on a clipboard carrier.

I'm not the OP, but I'll add a few thoughts here. . . .

1. I don't think this is a minor nitpick at all; the only way a trade-up occurs there is if there are two teams that could reasonably move up to pick a QB.

3. Niklas went off the board at 43. [That said, I'd sooner have Niklas than Nix at 37. ]

4. Agreed.

5. As long as you're OK with carrying QB3 on the practice squad, I'm OK with that. Otherwise you're basically mandating that Brady's backup in 2015 will be someone with no experience in the system.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's a very decent draft, but you're missing DE and a 3-tech DT that can one gap and get after the QB. Both, IMO, are large needs going into the season to solidify this defense as a top unit in the league. I'm not sold on Webster and Bullough either, but can live with them. Bullough's instincts, as you noted, are top notch and I'm not overly concerned about his reported character flaws, but I want to see the team continue to move to athletes at the LB position. Bullough, unfortunately, does not fit that bill like a Tripp would.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Great effort and well thought out. However as usual with these things the things that pop out are the negatives and I have a few

1. It freakin killed me to see you pass on BOTH guys I'd take in a minute (Hageman and Tuitt), in order to pick a guy who is entering the league 10 years too late. Siliga is a decent young run stuffer. A PROVEN run stuffer. Wilfolk is a premier run stuffer. Perhaps after his injury he might even be one still. SO WHY in god's green earth would you take ANOTHER run stuffer when you KNOW that run stuffing is a devaluing necessity.

What this team DOESN'T need are 3 quality run stuffers. We DO need people who can push the pocket either at DT, DE or NT. Hageman is the obvious choice here in that he has that rare combination of size, length, and explosiveness that COULD make him an elite interior DLman. BUT he's also a guy who has a lower floor than you might like in your first pick, so I can see why Tuitt might end up being the guy. Not quite the explosiveness of Hageman, but a good combination of size quickness, length and position flexibility. I need you to explain why you pass up not just one but the 2 guys who best seem to fit what we need, in order top pick a limited player who is redundant the minute he signs his contract.

2. This is a small one, but I don't see Houston trading up to the Pats since none of the 3 teams picking after the Pats have need of a QB.

3. This is another nitpicker. If Niklas and ASJ are both on the board, explain why you'd take ASJ. I am really starting to like Niklas better because I think he has more upside. I'd be interested in learning why you'd take ASJ ahead of Niklas, though I'd be OK if he was the guy

4. I don't get the CB pick. Nothing really stands out about him. I'd much rather take Jordan Tripp or Christian Jones with that pick.

5. I like the Thomas and KPL picks, but beyond that I'm kind of down on a QB that high. I just don't see the need. There are too many vet back ups available, besides I think NEXT year is the year to start drafting "the next guy". The other reason is (assuming Mallett is still here after the draft) I only want to carry 2 QB's this season. I don't want to use that roster spot on a clipboard carrier

6. Philosophically, I'm against the idea of 12 picks, even in such a good draft. Too much waste. I'd be much happier with 8 picks and those other 4 you gathered in your trades, be used for 2015 picks.

I'm not surprised that the Nix pick isn't very popular because it certainly isn't a sexy one. I briefly explained my desire for another run stuffer in my previous post but its more my view of Nix as a player than the position. I am much higher on Nix than most around here because I keep going back to his 2012 tape when he was healthy and completely dominant. I think if he had of declared last year he would have been the first DT and I still think he is a top 10 talent. I believe he is much more than just a run stuffer and can be a 3 down player in the NFL. I'm not sold on Siliga and we still don't know what Wilfork will bring to the table this year so neither of those guys would come into consideration for this pick.

I love Hageman as well and wouldn't be against a Tuitt pick, but if all 3 are on the board at 29 I would be pretty confident 1 of them would be there at 33 which is why I put the trade down. There are two reasons I think Houston would make that trade. Firstly its to stop another QB needy team jumping ahead of them for Bridgewater and they don't want to risk losing out. The second reason is the extra year of control they could potentially have for a 1st round pick. For a QB that is potentially very valuable.

I prefer Niklas to ASJ but he went off the board to the NYG at 43.

The Purifoy pick is something that has been growing on me lately because of the versatility he offers and the potential he has to develop. CB might not be a need now but Revis is only on a 1 year deal (although I expect him to sign long term), Browner will turn 30 this year and his issues have been well documented and Logan Ryan may move to safety so CB may be a major need in a year or two. Purifoy would come in immediately as a special teams ace and either 4th or 5th CB which would help with roster versatility. I think if you get a solid contributor in the 4th round you are doing pretty well. I like KPL much better than the other athletic LBers so I wouldn't look to draft one at that stage. DE and DT were also under consideration but neither of those positions offered players that could contribute as much early on or the kind of potential Purifoy does as a CB/S.

I understand the reasons for not wanting a QB that high but I think Murray is the perfect option. Because of his injury he could potentially be put on IR for the year, learn the system and be around the team but not take up a roster spot. That way next year we have a guy step in with good knowledge of the system and some physical talent to be developed as the backup.

I can see why you might not want so many picks but I'm not concerned for 2 reasons. First a number of these guys are coming off injuries and are IR/PUP candidates that we can stash for the future. They would essentially become 2015 rookies but are much more talented than what we would get at a similar draft position next year. The other reason is we always have so much turnover at the bottom of the roster and always have UDFA making the team that I don't think roster spots is a concern. As I've said in the past I would much rather have to cut quality players than not have enough during camp. I'm looking to build a roster for camp that we can get the best 53 out of not build a 53 man roster in May.

 

[Wilfork#75]

It's a very decent draft, but you're missing DE and a 3-tech DT that can one gap and get after the QB. Both, IMO, are large needs going into the season to solidify this defense as a top unit in the league. I'm not sold on Webster and Bullough either, but can live with them. Bullough's instincts, as you noted, are top notch and I'm not overly concerned about his reported character flaws, but I want to see the team continue to move to athletes at the LB position. Bullough, unfortunately, does not fit that bill like a Tripp would.

I agree that DE and 3-tech DT are still needs and I particularly would like to add a DE but the players just aren't there in this draft. Unfortunately you can't fill every need in the draft and DE is a position I would prefer to go the free agent route. I think the pass rushers are already overrated with guys going higher than I think they should. If it were a deeper class at DE its certainly an area I would look to address. 3-tech is another position I looked at but just didn't see much of an upgrade there. I was very close to having Anthony Johnson in there in the 4th round but I just don't think him or the other options available are that much of an upgrade over what we have or could potentially get as UDFA's.

Personally I think this desire for athleticism is overrated. I think we do need to add some speed and athleticism which is why I love a guy like KPL but I want football players not athletes. To me instincts trump speed, and while ideally we could get both, if there is one trait I would value more it instincts. Great athletes bust in the NFL all the time, I want the guy that lives and breathes football.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree that DE and 3-tech DT are still needs and I particularly would like to add a DE but the players just aren't there in this draft. Unfortunately you can't fill every need in the draft and DE is a position I would prefer to go the free agent route. I think the pass rushers are already overrated with guys going higher than I think they should. If it were a deeper class at DE its certainly an area I would look to address. 3-tech is another position I looked at but just didn't see much of an upgrade there. I was very close to having Anthony Johnson in there in the 4th round but I just don't think him or the other options available are that much of an upgrade over what we have or could potentially get as UDFA's.

That's why I would prefer DE and a 3-tech pass rusher be added in the first two rounds. If you read my mocks, that's pretty much how I have had it. But then, you know that the Nix pick isn't a sexy one. That's fine. Everyone has their opinion about how the draft should go down. I just prefer DE and 3-tech DT get addressed right off the bat, which is what brought an otherwise solid mock down a bit for me. That said, I'm having a hard time going against your selection of Richburg.

Personally I think this desire for athleticism is overrated. I think we do need to add some speed and athleticism which is why I love a guy like KPL but I want football players not athletes. To me instincts trump speed, and while ideally we could get both, if there is one trait I would value more it instincts. Great athletes bust in the NFL all the time, I want the guy that lives and breathes football.

Ideally, you want an athletic guy that has solid instincts as well, which is why I like the KPL pick. Bullough is more in the Spikes mold. Spikes was solid for us and had excellent instincts, but you need more than instincts to be able to cover quicker RB's and move TE's out of the backfield and that's been an Achilles Heel for the Patriots the last couple of years. I just don't want to see a situation where we have a lead footed LB forced into the line-up on third down again.

Other than that, the draft is extremely solid.

 

[BobDigital]

I absolutely loved the effort you put into this. I think this is a very possible draft. I like how you included a few surprises because we all know they are going to happen. I could nitpick a few things that i disagree with but no 2 people will ever complete agree about everything. I got some free time coming up so instead of saying what I would do differently I might be able to respond with a similar post.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I absolutely loved the effort you put into this. I think this is a very possible draft. I like how you included a few surprises because we all know they are going to happen. I could nitpick a few things that i disagree with but no 2 people will ever complete agree about everything. I got some free time coming up so instead of saying what I would do differently I might be able to respond with a similar post.

Thanks man. I know people are always going to disagree and that's half the fun of it. My belief is as long as someone can justify their ideas I have no problem with them even if its not my personal preference. Its the different perspectives that make this place great. I look forward to hearing some more of your ideas.

 

[patfanken]

I'm not surprised that the Nix pick isn't very popular because it certainly isn't a sexy one. I briefly explained my desire for another run stuffer in my previous post but its more my view of Nix as a player than the position. I am much higher on Nix than most around here because I keep going back to his 2012 tape when he was healthy and completely dominant. I think if he had of declared last year he would have been the first DT and I still think he is a top 10 talent. I believe he is much more than just a run stuffer and can be a 3 down player in the NFL. I'm not sold on Siliga and we still don't know what Wilfork will bring to the table this year so neither of those guys would come into consideration for this pick.

I love Hageman as well and wouldn't be against a Tuitt pick, but if all 3 are on the board at 29 I would be pretty confident 1 of them would be there at 33 which is why I put the trade down. There are two reasons I think Houston would make that trade. Firstly its to stop another QB needy team jumping ahead of them for Bridgewater and they don't want to risk losing out. The second reason is the extra year of control they could potentially have for a 1st round pick. For a QB that is potentially very valuable.

Thanks for the imput. I'll feel a LITTLE better if Nix is the pick now. BTW- One of the reasons I'm high on Tuitt is more about his 2012 tape than the 2013.

I prefer Niklas to ASJ but he went off the board to the NYG at 43.

Yeah, I've since become aware that I missed that. BTW I wonder if we are in the distinct minority who are higher on Niklas than ASJ. Most of the common wisdom has ASJ as the consensus #3 TE pick after Ebron and Amaro. Where as Niklas is considered a drop off from the top 3. likely to go at the end of the 2nd. Is Niklas becoming on of those late draft risers?

The Purifoy pick is something that has been growing on me lately because of the versatility he offers and the potential he has to develop. CB might not be a need now but Revis is only on a 1 year deal (although I expect him to sign long term), Browner will turn 30 this year and his issues have been well documented and Logan Ryan may move to safety so CB may be a major need in a year or two. Purifoy would come in immediately as a special teams ace and either 4th or 5th CB which would help with roster versatility. I think if you get a solid contributor in the 4th round you are doing pretty well

.
My issue is less about the position and more about the player. On a quick glance there seems like nothing stands out. Think about it. Jake Bequette has a better 3 cone time. I would agree that in this era, you can't have too many DB's on your roster (another reason not to have more than 2 QB's) But this kid doesn't seem to offer ANYTHING that adds to the mix. He's not fast, quick, physical, or long. Even in the late 4th shouldn't you bring one of those qualities to the table.

I like KPL much better than the other athletic LBers so I wouldn't look to draft one at that stage. DE and DT were also under consideration but neither of those positions offered players that could contribute as much early on or the kind of potential Purifoy does as a CB/S.

Don't get me wrong I love the KPL pick. He's Shazer-lite. But I think he and Shazer are forerunners to what is essentially a new position of hybrid LB/S, so in a sense separate from the need to add LB depth. To that end, Tripp and Jones fill 2 needs. The first is LB depth, and the 2nd is the continuing need for adding speed to that position.

To that end I'll add to the new adage that you can't have too many DB's in this era, by saying you can't have too many fast players on defense

I understand the reasons for not wanting a QB that high but I think Murray is the perfect option. Because of his injury he could potentially be put on IR for the year, learn the system and be around the team but not take up a roster spot. That way next year we have a guy step in with good knowledge of the system and some physical talent to be developed as the backup.

OK, if he's on IR, then I'd be OK with it. I really think that roster spot is important. Much more important than a 3rd QB

I can see why you might not want so many picks but I'm not concerned for 2 reasons. First a number of these guys are coming off injuries and are IR/PUP candidates that we can stash for the future. They would essentially become 2015 rookies but are much more talented than what we would get at a similar draft position next year.

That makes sense as long as you have 4 of those guys. I really think its unlikely that more than 5 of our picks make the roster.

the other reason is we always have so much turnover at the bottom of the roster and always have UDFA making the team that I don't think roster spots is a concern. As I've said in the past I would much rather have to cut quality players than not have enough during camp. I'm looking to build a roster for camp that we can get the best 53 out of not build a 53 man roster in May.

Its probably the fact that we've historically have had great success with finding at LEAST one UDFA making the team that makes me leery of having so many picks. Besides, I think that there are going to be a huge wealth of good players that will become available with the last cut this year. I'd love to have a roster spot or two open when that happens

 

[everlong]

You've already addressed a lot of the things I disagree with so I'll just say I was thoroughly entertained reading your mock and analysis. I was picturing the reactions if some of these trades happened and then especially the Bengals taking Manziel, WOW that would be epic entertainment.

 

[zimmy]

I really love the draft and like the work thats gone in. The only thing I would say is that a) it doesn't address one of our biggest needs which is pass rush. We need someone to rotate with Jones and Nink, and b) we draft too many players. If we trade down as shown, I'd like to see us trade up at some points too. I don't see 12 players making the team.

I would try and get a DE/OLB like Attaochu, Van Noy, Marcus Smith etc with the 68 pick. I would also try somehow to take advantage of the historically deep WR options. Other than that an A.

 

[luuked]

Nice draft overall.

However what always boggles my mind is the question why the Texans would trade up 4 spots to get Bridgewater. I dont see any of Denver, SF or Seattle going for him. What would make the Texans so anxious that they can't wait for those three teams ?

 

[Wilfork#75]

Thanks for the imput. I'll feel a LITTLE better if Nix is the pick now. BTW- One of the reasons I'm high on Tuitt is more about his 2012 tape than the 2013.
Yeah, I've since become aware that I missed that. BTW I wonder if we are in the distinct minority who are higher on Niklas than ASJ. Most of the common wisdom has ASJ as the consensus #3 TE pick after Ebron and Amaro. Where as Niklas is considered a drop off from the top 3. likely to go at the end of the 2nd. Is Niklas becoming on of those late draft risers?
.
My issue is less about the position and more about the player. On a quick glance there seems like nothing stands out. Think about it. Jake Bequette has a better 3 cone time. I would agree that in this era, you can't have too many DB's on your roster (another reason not to have more than 2 QB's) But this kid doesn't seem to offer ANYTHING that adds to the mix. He's not fast, quick, physical, or long. Even in the late 4th shouldn't you bring one of those qualities to the table.
Don't get me wrong I love the KPL pick. He's Shazer-lite. But I think he and Shazer are forerunners to what is essentially a new position of hybrid LB/S, so in a sense separate from the need to add LB depth. To that end, Tripp and Jones fill 2 needs. The first is LB depth, and the 2nd is the continuing need for adding speed to that position.

To that end I'll add to the new adage that you can't have too many DB's in this era, by saying you can't have too many fast players on defense
OK, if he's on IR, then I'd be OK with it. I really think that roster spot is important. Much more important than a 3rd QB
That makes sense as long as you have 4 of those guys. I really think its unlikely that more than 5 of our picks make the roster.
Its probably the fact that we've historically have had great success with finding at LEAST one UDFA making the team that makes me leery of having so many picks. Besides, I think that there are going to be a huge wealth of good players that will become available with the last cut this year. I'd love to have a roster spot or two open when that happens

I've always been higher on Niklas because I love his physical style and blocking ability. The talk at the combine was he was going to shoot up draft boards because he's a physical freak but because he got hurt that rise has been more gradual leading up to the draft. I'm torn on ASJ because I love the talent and potential but his play has been a disappointment for me. His upside is huge though and in the late 2nd he was too hard to pass up. I like both guys better than Amaro though who doesn't offer the blocking skills I desire.

I understand the concerns about Purifoy and the testing numbers were certainly a major red flag, but those numbers conflict with what I saw on tape. He might not be a Revis type athlete but I think he is certainly more athletic on the field than what those numbers indicate. He has shown the ability at times to be an excellent CB but also had a tendency to get burned a lot. I don't think that is a result of athleticism I think its lack of technique and understanding which can be coached. I also don't think learning to play WR during the spring helped his CB play either. On that, I think Purifoy could be a reverse Edelman, a primary special teams player that backs up at CB but can also contribute on offense if necessary. I think the fact that Florida tried using him as an offensive playmaker speaks to his explosiveness. In the end what I like about Purifoy is I think he has huge upside without a lot of bust potential because of the variety of ways he can contribute. It may not be ideal but even if he doesn't develop into a starting CB I think we still get decent value out of a 4th round pick.

Nice draft overall.

However what always boggles my mind is the question why the Texans would trade up 4 spots to get Bridgewater. I dont see any of Denver, SF or Seattle going for him. What would make the Texans so anxious that they can't wait for those three teams ?

That's a valid question and I addressed it a little bit in a previous post. Houston wouldn't be trading up to get ahead of Denver, SF or Seattle, it would be to ensure a team like Oakland or Tampa don't jump ahead of them for Bridgewater. Late 1st round is the perfect spot for a team to jump up and grab a falling QB and Houston would want to make sure its them and not someone else making that move up. The other reason is the potential 5th year of control a 1st round pick can have which could be very valuable, especially for a QB. I think that extra year of control would almost be enough to trade up for by itself when a QB is involved. It's also a very minor trade up that doesn't cost Houston too much. They only swap 4th round picks and throw in a 6th which they have an extra one of anyway. I think that is a small price to pay for what you believe is your starting QB.

 

[mgteich]

Nice draft overall.

However what always boggles my mind is the question why the Texans would trade up 4 spots to get Bridgewater. I dont see any of Denver, SF or Seattle going for him. What would make the Texans so anxious that they can't wait for those three teams ?

Houston would trade up in a heartbeat because there may be others wanting to move up for Bridgewater at 29, 30, 31 or 32.

As I have said before, I don't think this trade would happen because I think that the patriots would draft Bridgewater at 29.

 

[mgteich]

Patriots Picks
A bookie might give you decent odds against Carr being picked in the top, and against him being picked before Bridgewater and Manziel.

*New England Trades 1(29) + 4(130) to Houston for 2(33) + 4(101) + 6(181)*

*New England Trades 2(33) to St Louis for 2(37) + 5(153) +6(188)*

2(37). NT- Louis Nix III- ND
I can’t say much more about this guy, I loves me some Irish Chocolate. He can step in from day 1 as a rotational run stuffer with the potential to develop into a 3 down player and the eventual Vince Wilfork replacement as the anchor of the defense.

2(62). TE- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
There is quite a drop off after the top 4 TE’s in this draft so if one drops to 62 they are going to be very tough to pass up. I prefer Troy Niklas to ASJ but with the way it fell I can’t be too disappointed getting him at this stage.

*Trade 3(93) + 2015 3rdto Atlanta for 3(68)*
Pats move up to grab one of the top C in the draft while Atlanta moves down to get back a future pick they traded away earlier.

3(68 from Atl). C- Weston Richburg- Colorado State
Richburg is my top rated C in the draft and I think there is quite a drop off after him and Marcus Martin. I’m fine with trading away a future 3rdround pick in order to move up and get my guy. He seems like an ideal fit for the Pats blocking scheme.

* New England Trades 4(101) to Jacksonville for 4(114) + 5(159)*

4(114 from Jax)- CB-Louchiez Purifoy- Florida
This may seem like an unusual pick but the more I think about it the more I like it. Purifoy would likely be our #5 CB (or #4 if Ryan moves to safety) but he would be able to step in right away and contribute as a special teams ace. He is an excellent gunner and return man that also has a lot of potential to develop as a cover corner. He is very raw as a CB but has good athleticism despite not testing well. If you can get a contributor in the 4thround I think you’re doing okay.

4(140 comp)- OG- Brandon Thomas- Clemson
Thomas is a top 75 talent that blew out his knee and could be a steal. I’m happy taking a chance on him at this stage and sitting him for a year to get healthy. He is a talented OG that could be the eventual Mankins replacement at LG.

5(153 from Stl)- QB- Aaron Murray- Georgia
While I think it’s too early to look for the eventual Brady replacement we still need a replacement for Mallett in 2015 at backup QB. Murray might now have huge upside but he is tough, experienced and a leader.

5(159 from Bal via Jax)- LB- Kevin Pierre-Louis- BC
We need more depth and athleticism at LBer and I think KPL is as good an option as any in this draft. He is very athletic, instinctive and great value at this stage of the draft.

6(181 from Hou)- RB- Rajion Neal- Tennessee
Neal is my favourite RB in the draft and I can’t understand why he isn’t rated higher. He can run between the tackles, outside, catch out of the backfield, split out as a receiver and most importantly for a Pats rookie RB, he is a really solid blocker. After averaging over 5YPC in the SEC I think he would be an excellent #3 RB for us.

6(188 from Stl)- DE/TE- Larry Webster- Bloomsburg
Lottery ticket who has huge upside as a TE. He is rising fast and may not make it this far but certainly worth a shot if he’s available.

6(198 from Phi)- MLB- Max Bullough- Michigan State
For me, the most important traits for MLB are instincts and intelligence and Bullough has both. He’s tough and experienced leader with great instincts and football fundamentals. He’s not an elite athlete and has some character questions but he is a great fit and great value as a backup LBer.

6(206)- SS- Vinnie Sunseri- Alabama
Sunseri is much more talented than a 6thround pick, but an ACL injury ended his season and didn’t allow him to work out for teams. Sunseri’s floor is probably a key special teamer with the potential to be a solid SS because of his smarts and instincts.

7(244)- FB- Trey Millard- Oklahoma
Millard has been my binky from the beginning and now he is great value. The most versatile weapon in the draft, Millard could go a long way to helping replace the production of Hernandez. He will likely need a redshirt year to recover from injury.


UDFAs

QB- Kenny Guiton- Ohio State- If Murray isn’t available in the mid rounds I would be fine with waiting and taking a chance on Guiton as the #3 QB this season.
QB- Jeff Matthews- Cornell
S- Nick Williams- North Alabama- My favourite UDFA, Williams is the closest thing to Cam Chancellor in the draft.
S- Jonathon Dowling- Western Kentucky
DE- Ben Gardner- Stanford- Blue collar DE that could be a solid rotational guy
DT- Zach Kerr- Delaware
DT- Khyri Thornton- Southern Misss
DE- Terrence Fede- Marist
LB- Brock Coyle- Montana
LB/FB- Nikita Whitlock- Wake Forest
CB- Robert Nelson- Arizona State
OG- Chris Burnette- Georgia
OT- Cornelius Lucas- Kansas State
RB- Damien Williams- Oklahoma
RB- Brandon Bigelow- Cal
WR- Jeremy Gallon- Michigan
WR/HB- Marcus Lucas- Missouri


Final Notes

- 12 draft picks seems like too many to make the roster but with the way this draft fell I think it’s a good balance of initial contributors, role players, developmental players and redshirt candidates that could contribute in the future. I would expect Nix, ASJ and Richburg to compete for a starting spot or at least be a primary backup with a significant role. Purifoy, KPL and Neal would all be role players intiailly with the potential to develop into more. Thomas, Murray, Sunseri and Millard are all IR/PUP candidates who could contribute in the future. Bullough would be competing for a roster spot as a backup LBer and Webster is a lottery ticket.