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Thursday Night Football:
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
The Colts are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Ravens and will be looking to win their fourth straight game as they travel to Houston in a match with the Texans for first place in the AFC South. Houston is 2-0 at home but lost 20-17 in overtime at Dallas in week five.
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)
8:25 pm ET, October 9, 2014
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Airs on CBS and NFL Network
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Colts favored by 3
Houston Defense versus Indianapolis Offense
Andrew Luck leads the NFL in passing yards (323 per game), and the Colts are tied with Philly with an NFL-best 31.2 points per game. With seven receptions for 77 yards against Baltimore, WR Reggie Wayne moved into ninth place for most career receiving yards all time (13,950) – and needs just 55 more yards to pass James Lofton for the eighth spot on the all-time list. While their running game (Ahmad Bradshaw, 5.0 yards per carry; Trent Richardson 3.4 yards per carry) is average, that doesn’t matter when your offense has Luck, Wayne (77 yards per game), T.Y. Hilton (76 yards per game) and TE Dwayne Allen (15 receptions on 20 targets, 13.6 yards per reception, four touchdowns).
Houston leads the NFL with twelve takeaways, and is led by MVP candidate J.J. Watt. The defensive lineman has an NFL-best 16 quarterback hits, three passes defensed, two sacks and a highlight reel pick-six after just five games. Indy tackle Gosder Cherilus will surely have help blocking Watt, but that could open up an already thin interior offensive line for the Colts. LB Brian Cushing has 45 tackles, and safeties D.J. Swearinger and Kendrick Lewis are tied with an NFL-best three forced fumbles.
Colts Defense versus Texans Offense
Arian Foster is healthy again, and has topped 100 yards rushing in all but one game this season; he ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards despite only playing in four games. The Indy defense ranks 25th against the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Colts D wasn’t that great to begin with, and they miss players like Arthur Jones, Robert Mathis, Pat Angerer and LaRon Landry. Foster being able to run the ball will mean that the Texans don’t have to count on Ryan Fitzpatrick to match Andrew Luck score for score in a shootout – an unattainable proposition.
Trends, Special Teams and Intangibles
Both teams are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread this season. Indy is 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 division games, and have covered in eight of their last ten games overall. Despite their two-win 2013 season, the Texans have now covered in five of their last six games. If it comes down to a game-winning kick, is there anybody other than Adam Vinatieri you want booting the ball? It seems hard to believe that number four has now spent almost as much time with the Colts (he’s now in his ninth season there) as he did with the Patriots (ten seasons).
Injuries
Indy’s offensive line was not stellar to begin with, and it has been riddled with injuries – and that plays right into Houston’s strength, J.J. Watt and the Texans defensive front seven. Starting LG Jake Mewhort is expected to miss his second straight game with an ankle injury, and now starting RG Hugh Thornton may miss this game with a bad back. A.Q. Shipley started the season at center, and may need to come back off the bench to play guard. Jonotthan Harrison did not play well at center against Baltimore, but at this point that may be the least of the Colts problems with their offensive line. The problem is that if Indy commits too much help to the interior line to stop Ryan Pickett, that leaves that much more of an opportunity for J.J. Watt, Jared Crick and Brooks Reed to wreak havoc from the edge.
While Houston’s injury report is much longer, it is primarily filled with players who will be on the field Thursday; Indy on the other hand has more players of significance that will miss this game.
Indianapolis Colts
CB Darius Butler (ankle) – Out
DT Arthur Jones (ankle) – Out
T/G Jack Mewhort (ankle) – Out
OG Hugh Thornton (back) – Out
ILB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) – Questionable
OLB Bjoern Werner (ankle) – Probable
Houston Texans
OLB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) – Out
CB Darryl Morris (ankle) – Out
WR Andre Johnson (ankle) – Questionable
RB Alfred Blue (knee) – Probable
CB A.J. Bouye (groin) – Probable
OG Brandon Brooks (ankle) – Probable
ILB Brian Cushing (knee) – Probable
ILB Akeem Dent (shoulder) – Probable
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (calf) – Probable
RB Arian Foster (hamstring) – Probable
DE Tim Jamison (groin) – Probable
WR Damaris Johnson (foot) – Probable
OG Ben Jones (knee) – Probable
CB Johnathan Joseph (knee) – Probable
P Shane Lechler (hip) – Probable
OT Derek Newton (ankle) – Probable
NT Ryan Pickett (knee) – Probable
S Eddie Pleasant (ankle) – Probable
S D.J. Swearinger (elbow) – Probable
ILB Jeff Tarpinian (thigh) – Probable
DE J.J. Watt (thigh) – Probable
Prediction
I think the problems with Indy’s interior offensive line will prove to be too much the Colts offense, regardless of how potent they may have appeared against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Houston (22nd in yards, 23rd in points) may be below average offensively, but they should be able to move the ball effectively and score just enough to pull off a mild upset.
Pick • Texans 27, Colts 21
Texans +3
over 46½
