This is Patriots' Super Bowl to lose.

[supafly]

I'm talking about the OP vomiting statistics all over the place.

Yeah, I know, that's why I said "tongue in cheek." (partially)

The other part was my thoughts about it actually being a real and physical gamble.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Okay, now you're getting borderline weird.

Gaining a potentially game saving/game changing INT with a 3 pt lead and half a quarter left, only to throw out Matthew Slater (ya think they saw that one coming?) on the field and throw it into triple coverage is hands-down the single handed dumbest move of the year.

There was ONE other time they threw that to Slater, who does not "ever" line up at WR. The Ravens read that one the whole entire time, and probably saw it on film this week.

As soon as they saw Slater trot out, they probably immediately knew what was coming---especially since it just came off a turnover.

Brady and co. could have just as easily worked the clock, and at the very least forced the Ravens to have to score a TD with about 3:30--4:00 remaining, by kicking an easy FG. They needed about 15-20 yards.

Or, in a better case scenario, they could have scored a TD from great field position and put the game away.

Not only do I strongly disagree with you, that move almost cost them the entire game (and potential season obviously).

And most importantly--they didn't "win" the field position game with the INT. It was returned to about the 40 yd line.

You clearly don't understand play calling and percentages.

They were a 61% to win even after they lost field position following the interception. When you are sitting at midfield with the ball and you are an 83% favorite to win it, just by having the ball at midfield, you can basically do whatever the hell you want with the exception of throwing a pick 6.

If you're 83% at midfield by having the ball what do you think it would have made them if they hit the touchdown? 97%-98%?

Is it worth taking a chance of becoming a 97% favorite to win the game at with 7 minutes to play, and in worse case scenario STILL be a 61% favorite to win? Absolutely!!!

If they didn't blow the field position they would have probably still been an 80% favorite to win it after the interception. Allowing the defender to running back was the only issue with that play. There was nothing wrong with the call. Brady's interception never swung the winning percentage in Baltimore's favor.

This would change if they didn't have the lead, but because they did, it was the good call. The chances of winning the football game was in their favor no matter the result of that play aside from an pick 6. Like I said, in that situation, there are very few bad calls, regardless of the outcome of the play.

 

[robbomango]

Patriotseven

When you have the lead, you get a turnover at midfield and you take a shot down field, and it gets picked off in the endzone, you lost the ball, but won the field position battle. It's like punting and pinning someone at the 1 yard line.

The INT was somewhat negated, I'd say so if Smith were brought down at the 1 yard line regardless that's not complimentary football. The D stepped up and gets a pick only to be repaid with a high risk throw/play call that's justified by the risk factor being negated, this is true if it avoids it's own recklessness.

Putting the D back on the field right away is like a slap in the face that didn't need to happen. Even worse, our D needed rest for the next series.

 

[Joker]

watching it live in person, I can only say...all the fans in my section turned around to each other with a "wha????" look on our faces...I mean, we ALL expoected a healthy dose of BJGE and running that clock down from 6 minutes...everybody....guys in their twenties, dads with the kids, even the Ed and Madge 60+ year old fans..."huh????"....seeing it on the DVR only made it look worse....

 

[serifyn]

The Giants are an incredibly balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground, that alone scares the hell out of me, the only plus to playing the giants over the 49ers is that we have already played the Giants, so the patriots will have an idea what to expect, it was a pretty close game last time, but the giants didn't have Nicks or Bradshaw.

 

[supafly]

You clearly don't understand play calling and percentages.

They were a 61% to win even after they lost field position following the interception. When you are sitting at midfield with the ball and you are an 83% favorite to win it, just by having the ball at midfield, you can basically do whatever the hell you want with the exception of throwing a pick 6.

If you're 83% at midfield by having the ball what do you think it would have made them if they hit the touchdown? 97%-98%?

Is it worth taking a chance of becoming a 97% favorite to win the game at with 7 minutes to play, and in worse case scenario STILL be a 61% favorite to win? Absolutely!!!

If they didn't blow the field position they would have probably still been an 80% favorite to win it after the interception. Allowing the defender to running back was the only issue with that play. There was nothing wrong with the call. Brady's interception never swung the winning percentage in Baltimore's favor.

This would change if they didn't have the lead, but because they did, it was the good call. The chances of winning the football game was in their favor no matter the result of that play aside from an pick 6. Like I said, in that situation, there are very few bad calls, regardless of the outcome of the play.

All they did was give the ball back, 10 yds from where they took over.

You can talk about percentages all you want (although I would argue 83% being up a FG with 1/2 a quarter to play ) but if you wanted to go for the REAL high percentage play, it would have been to try and milk the clock down to 3:30--4:00 left in the game, up SIX points.

That could have been done by simply running the clock down, and gaining between 15 and 20 yards. Actually, one could argue that ONE regular mid-level short/intermediate route could have forced the Ravens to need a TD to win, and they'd have needed that in their FINAL and last drive.

That'd have been the 'high percentage' play, not giving them the damn ball back 10 yds away from where you just got it, with 9 seconds milked off the clock.

I don't have as much of a problem of it being a gamble, as I do it being a predictable gamble. You don't throw out a WR who has seen the field a handful of plays all yr, then throw it to him on the exact same route in triple coverage.

 

[PatriotSeven]

All they did was give the ball back, 10 yds from where they took over.

You can talk about percentages all you want (although I would argue 83% being up a FG with 1/2 a quarter to play ) but if you wanted to go for the REAL high percentage play, it would have been to try and milk the clock down to 3:30--4:00 left in the game, up SIX points.

That could have been done by simply running the clock down, and gaining between 15 and 20 yards. Actually, one could argue that ONE regular mid-level short/intermediate route could have forced the Ravens to need a TD to win, and they'd have needed that in their FINAL and last drive.

That'd have been the 'high percentage' play, not giving them the damn ball back 10 yds away from where you just got it, with 9 seconds milked off the clock.

I don't have as much of a problem of it being a gamble, as I do it being a predictable gamble. You don't throw out a WR who has seen the field a handful of plays all yr, then throw it to him on the exact same route in triple coverage.

From 7 minutes? You play the game to WIN. You don't play, not to lose. You always try to make whatever is the best move to increase your chances of winning. Trying to become a 90+% favorite counts as that.

Milking the clock with 7 minutes left in a 3 point game is freaking suicide!

If taking a shot down field from midfield when you are a 83% chance favorite to win the football game is NOT a good time to do it, just out of curiosity, when do you consider it ok?

 

[supafly]

From 7 minutes? You play the game to WIN. You don't play, not to lose. You always try to make whatever is the best move to increase your chances of winning. Trying to become a 90+% favorite counts as that.

Milking the clock with 7 minutes left in a 3 point game is freaking suicide!

If taking a shot down field from midfield when you are a 83% chance favorite to win the football game is NOT a good time to do it, just out of curiosity, when do you consider it ok?

First of all, they took a very LOW percentage gamble, that was just as likely to give the ball back (predictable play into multiple defenders, coming off a turnover to boot--extremely predictable and low percentage) than it was to score.

Secondly, I don't know/care where you come up with this "83%" chance of winning being up by a lousy FG from.

Third, they were at midfield, and needed between 15 and 20 yds to kick a FG, thus making it a 6 pt game. That would have forced BAL to need a TD with only several minutes left. That is not "low" percentage, as you say. Just about every team, including this one on most days, would have done that exact thing.

Lastly, "milking the clock" is exactly what just about every team does with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter...so apparently all 32 of the NFL teams are dumb by your assessment.

 

[pherein]

Sweeett ! I am so happy for you Patriots fans. This is so wonderful that you will go to the big show again. You get a chance to pay back the Giants, win one for Myra, and Brady gets to make some history. What more could you ask for. It turned out perfect for you and Im so happy for all of the good fans of New England.

You will win , I can feel it

Sorry for missing all the action. I would have been online to cheer for your boys, but I was in a secure base deep in the appalachian mountains, and they dont allow phones, ipads, or any contact with the outside world. Its just a month long Security training we have to do periodically until 2/23, then Im free. But, I will try to sneak out to a wifi area, and maybe get online to wish you well , and hopefully some live chat.

But wow.. what a game. Hmm always knew Flacco would choke

Anyway.. so happy for you, you must be so excited ! Some advice from a franchise used to being at the Super Bowl ( Joke ). Have fun, trust your boys, and have FAITH, no matter the score. Your boys need their New England spirit and fans more than ever.
This is not a time for doubters, its a time for fan-atics.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE AFC CAMPIONS PATRIOTS AND THIER FANS !

Now have some fun, and kick a little Giant butt

 

[supafly]

Sweeett ! I am so happy for you Patriots fans. This is so wonderful that you will go to the big show again. You get a chance to pay back the Giants, win one for Myra, and Brady gets to make some history. What more could you ask for. It turned out perfect for you and Im so happy for all of the good fans of New England.

You will win , I can feel it

Sorry for missing all the action. I would have been online to cheer for your boys, but I was in a secure base deep in the appalachian mountains, and they dont allow phones, ipads, or any contact with the outside world. Its just a month long Security training we have to do periodically until 2/23, then Im free. But, I will try to sneak out to a wifi area, and maybe get online to wish you well , and hopefully some live chat.

But wow.. what a game. Hmm always knew Flacco would choke

Anyway.. so happy for you, you must be so excited ! Some advice from a franchise used to being at the Super Bowl ( Joke ). Have fun, trust your boys, and have FAITH, no matter the score. Your boys need their New England spirit and fans more than ever.
This is not a time for doubters, its a time for fan-atics.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE AFC CAMPIONS PATRIOTS AND THIER FANS !

Now have some fun, and kick a little Giant butt

Thank you, Pherein. Much appreciated by the fan base here.

New Orleans will re-sign Brees in the next couple of months, and be right back to the playoffs (or further) next yr too.

Take care, buddy.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Dude, no. Just, no.

You can think what you like, but we're going to have to be perfect to win, i'n all three phases.

I am in full agreement that OP is flat out wrong. However, The Patriots have to be perfect in all three phases to win? I believe your assumption is also wrong.

Give the Giants credit for making plays and playing tough in the postseason. They have earned where they are. They are a capable team on both sides of the ball and the Patriots, I believe, have an relatively uphill climb to win this game. With that said, the Giants have not played at a level that warrants having to be perfect in all 3 phases.....and really not even close. Consider this:

1) Against GB. With GB playing woefully uninspired play exemplified by 3 fumbles and several boneheaded plays along with their OL allowing Rodgers to get harassed way too often...........the Giants D gained almost 400 yards and the game was a one score game starting the fourth. If GB just doesn't give up 2 of those 3 fumbles, this game may well have been different.

2) I live in the Bay Area and I can tell you that the Niner offense is not a good offense (the Saint win was a turnover induced mirage). They have their moments but to call them potent is not an accurate characterization. Their OL's pass protection has been semi decent at best. Further, the weather was very gusty and the field slippery today making throwing difficult. Yet the Niners scored 17 against the Giants along with the Niners gift wrapping 6 to 10 points for the Giants. Also, the Niners had 2 easy INTs that were broken up by their own teammates. The Giants were eminently beatable today by a pedestrian offense.

Bottom line:
A) There in little reason to believe the Patriot OL will not give TB time. They have been as solid a pass protection unit as their is in the NFL in the last 6 to 8 weeks. They don't need to be perfect, they just need to do what they have been doing for many weeks now. What I see from the Giants makes me think the Patriots can put up a lot of points.
B) The Patriot STs have been good all year. We have been solid in making teams start in unfavorable field position and we have been good at converting our FG opps. No reason to require them to play perfect, they just need to play as they have played most of the year.
C) The defense is the real concern obviously. This is where we need that perfect play you mention though I don't think it needs to be perfect. The D needs to limit big plays and make them kick FGs. Even for this defense that isn't a frightfully high bar to set. It's a bar that is higher than the norm for this D but it is attainable (albeit probably below 50/50).

Above is the winning byline for the Patriots. It does not require perfect. It requires us to play slightly better than the norm on offense, the norm on STs, and markedly better than the norm on defense.

 

[reflexblue]

You saw it today and still don't believe it. Nothing can possibly change blind ignorance. The teams who WON did that and you still don't believe it.

The point is there is NO real logical, evidence to back up the fact the Giants are any sort of a threat, because in the stats that are most important, they are ranked far lower on all 3 sides, and proved it today again.

They sucked in efficiency despite a +2 margin. Pats rocked despite a -2.

Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but you don't bet against solid facts. Simple as that. It's not overconfidence. It's just facts. Though I am sure there are a bunch of Giants fans right now that are overconfident.

Let me put it in perspective. The Patriots D are every bit as good as 49ers defense, but better down the stretch, and better in pass defense. Giants won't have Alex Smith and an inexperienced team across though. They will have Brady one of the best offenses in the league and guys who don't make boneheaded mistakes.

Honestly, this doesn't point to a close game. It points to the Patriots winning by about 10.

GOT Delusion???
The game will resemble the Ravens game, if we win by three i'll be happy. The Giants give this team fits, especially on defense. They were the Last team i wanted to see in the SB

 

[PatriotReign]

Sorry....stupid thread

Agreed that is some serious BS.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

GOT Delusion???
The game will resemble the Ravens game, if we win by three i'll be happy. The Giants give this team fits, especially on defense. They were the Last team i wanted to see in the SB

Not sure why people think they will give us fits on offense unless our OL plays their worst game in a long time. A markedly inferior offense playing on a gusty, wet day put up 17 points on the Giants today including 150 yards of rushing. The Giants secondary is not considered a dominant force and is widely considered inferior to the Ravens defense. Yet on a bad day for TB, the Patriots yesterday put up 23 against a significantly better D.
For what little the regular season game matters, we put up 20 on the Giants right in the heart of our stretch of offensive struggles...and that game included an OL performance that was not up to par with how the OL has been performing for quite some time.

 

[Bella*chick]

Not sure why people think they will give us fits on offense unless our OL plays their worst game in a long time. A markedly inferior offense playing on a gusty, wet day put up 17 points on the Giants today including 150 yards of rushing. The Giants secondary is not considered a dominant force and is widely considered inferior to the Ravens defense. Yet on a bad day for TB, the Patriots yesterday put up 23 against a significantly better D.
For what little the regular season game matters, we put up 20 on the Giants right in the heart of our stretch of offensive struggles...and that game included an OL performance that was not up to par with how the OL has been performing for quite some time.

You're not sure why they give us fits on offense??? Have you watched the games we play against them?

Look, i hope you're right more than anything else. I can't figure out why the Giants come on so strong after average regular seasons. But I did not want this matchup. At all. That team is going on flying high with all the confidence in the world whereas it feels like we just survived. I'm just feeling very wary about them.

 

[ensoul]

You're not sure why they give us fits on offense??? Have you watched the games we play against them?

Look, i hope you're right more than anything else. I can't figure out why the Giants come on so strong after average regular seasons. But I did not want this matchup. At all. That team is going on flying high with all the confidence in the world whereas it feels like we just survived. I'm just feeling very wary about them.

Yeah I agree. Me and my buddy were rooting hard for the 49ers. I don't like this matchup at all for the pats. Giants have great defense, a very good QB and some very good receivers. Not to mention all the size their lines have. Giants have had an amazing run getting here and have beaten tougher teams than the pats have. I know the line can changed but I am surprised that the pats are picked by 3 1/2. That makes no sense at all.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The line reflects Vegas' best guess at what spread you offer if you have 100 people and you want to entice 50 to bet on the Pats and 50 on the Giants (i.e., their best guess at the considered judgment of the betting public.)

And as stupit as the general betting public is, ya gotta figure it's even stupider in the SB betting frenzy... a lot of "I bet 10 bucks on NE because I like that decal" kind of bets... the line on this reflects guesses on what a ton of know nothings want to do w/their money, moreso than a regular game. Story lines like dynasties, revenge, etc., are way more powerful "rationales" than knowledge of whether a team can or can't move the ball against another team.

We're 4 good quarters away, that's the good part. This is going to hurt really, really bad if we only get 3 of them. THat's the bad part.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Brady plays great + Defense makes stops when it has to + OL protects Brady= Win

 

[SHOWTIME15]

You're not sure why they give us fits on offense??? Have you watched the games we play against them?

Look, i hope you're right more than anything else. I can't figure out why the Giants come on so strong after average regular seasons. But I did not want this matchup. At all. That team is going on flying high with all the confidence in the world whereas it feels like we just survived. I'm just feeling very wary about them.

Giants are getting a lot of breaks. Their 5 game winning streak:

Jets - terrible team

Cowboys - beat Tony Romo who injured himself the weak before against the Eagles

Atlanta - Matt Ryan overrated and is not a playoff QB

GB - Aaron Rodgers has his worst day of the season and Packers receivers dropping the ball left and right along with terrible play calling.

SF - gift wrapped win

It will be tough, but we simply have to play a perfect game to win this one.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

You're not sure why they give us fits on offense??? Have you watched the games we play against them?

Look, i hope you're right more than anything else. I can't figure out why the Giants come on so strong after average regular seasons. But I did not want this matchup. At all. That team is going on flying high with all the confidence in the world whereas it feels like we just survived. I'm just feeling very wary about them.

"have you watched them play us" is not significantly applicable. The sample size is small to say the least (one game). Note, the 2007 game is not a precursor to anything unless the Giants pass rush performs the same way (that is THE reason we lost that game). However a poor pass protection performance by the OL, like 07, means we are in trouble against any opponent. But why will the OL's pass protection perform poorly against the Giants when that aspect of our game has played exceptionally well for quite some time against formidable pass rushing teams like Denver and Baltimore?

Regarding the single game sample from 2 months ago, the Giants caught us in the midst of an Offensive slump (though our slump would be considered normal offense to many). The Pitt game had exposed a weakness in the Patriot O that needed adjustments to put the O back on track. I believe in that sample game our defense was relying on Sergio Brown, Josh Barret, Philip Adams, Guyton, Brace, White on regular downs. Our OL pass protection was not hitting its stride either (not playing awful in that game but not playing as they have been playing). Yet we scored 23 points, had a lead in the 4th quarter, and fell just short of victory.

Again, why are the Giants this frightening juggernaut that the Patriots will have fits trying to score on?
While I am concerned about the path to winning the upcoming game, I will be SHOCKED if the Patriot no huddle offense can't repeatedly move the ball down the field against the Giants.