I admire your confidence but platitudes about how the Giants shouldn't be in Indy won't cover Cruz, Manningham and Nicks on 3rd an 8. The team is going to have to work for this one, and maybe get a little bit lucky to win.
Let me explain a couple of facts:
The more efficient offense is
10-0 the playoffs so far. The 10 more efficient offenses won
all 10 games!
Teams who win the turnover battle are 8-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots are the ones who have that second stat.
The
average offense, against an average defense, scores an average of 3.5 points when they get the ball at midfield.
Even though the Giants faced a good defense, winning by 3 points despite a +2 turnover margin, which gave them the ball in the opponents territory, not midfield, shows they are very
weak offensively.
There is only one team in this playoffs that has managed to win 2 games with a turnover margin which says more than anything else you can possibly throw at it. The Patriots. In addition, this is the ONLY team that can go up against a defense like the Ravens, and an offense as efficient as the Ravens #6 in the NFL, and come out with a positive efficiency rating despite 4 turnovers and a -2 turnover margin.
Good offenses are
supposed to come out with positive efficiency ratings when they are + in the turnover margin.
Even great offenses are
supposed to come out with poor efficiency ratings when they are - in turnover margin.
The Giants came out with a piss poor offensive efficiency rating despite a +2 turnover margin. That means their opponents beat themselves.
The Giants, despite a +2 turnover margin, came out with a 17.2 efficiency rating.
The Patriots, despite a -2 turnover margin came out with 14.2 efficiency rating.
17.2 is good enough to be ranked 27th in the NFL
14.2 is good enough to be ranked 8th in the NFL
Now, at an even turnover margin, you would expect an average offense to be ranked about 27th against a #1 defense. At a -2 turnover margin you would expect a #1 offense to be ranked about 27th.
What you DON'T expect is what is listed above. A team with a +2 turnover margin to be ranked nearly last in efficiency, and a team with a -2 to be ranked in the top 10. If you can't do better than 27th with a +2, you have major, major issues.
And when offensive efficiency is
10-0 so far in the playoffs, why would you even consider for a moment the Giants to be the slightest of threat?
It's
10-0! The Giants didn't win because of LUCK. They won because of that.
You wanna bet against that? Be my guest. Vegas and people who know about this will continue to make a fortune. Just like they did in the Broncos-Pittsburgh game. Pittsburgh, btw, finished the season 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Giants were the equivalent of Ben on a hobbled foot today and most of this year.
I don't care about your 3rd and 8 stats. I don't care about your yards stats. I am going by one that supersedes all that, measures the entire
team, and is
10-0.
Oh and in this same stat the Patriots D is #2. Only the 49ers had a more efficient defense. They're gone now. Patriots have the best defense left. They will cover Cruz and anyone else the Giants have just fine.