The Uncle Heaster 1st + 1 mock draft 2.0, March 31

[VJCPatriot]

Why would the Pats move up to #13 for Smith when you consider the teams in between the 13th and 17th picks:
14 St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama. -- Desperately need WR.
15 Miami Dolphins - Trade alert the Dolphins trade #15 to San Diego for #18 and other stuff. The Chargers select Ryan Kerrigan OLB Purdue. -- Kerrigan isn't a fit anyways. We don't care if someone leaps up for him.
16 Jacksonville Jaguars - Aldon Smith DE Missouri. -- A risky conversion project the Pats likely won't take a chance on.

So none of those 3 teams have OT as a need. Why do the Pats trade up again when they can sit tight and just take Tyrone Smith when he drops to #17, if they even want Smith? It just makes no sense. If the draft unfolds that way at the top, I'd rather have the Pats trade down a handful of spots, get some extra picks and land a defensive end.

Then trade out of 28 for more picks. Why are you in love with Smith? I see Vollmer as the Pats future LT. Drafting an RT with a 2nd or 3rd rounder would be more value effective. If Smith turns out to be strictly an RT btw, moving up to 13 for an RT is a huge waste of value.

 

[dryheat44]

Why would the Pats move up to #13 for Smith when you consider the teams in between the 13th and 17th picks:
14 St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama. -- Desperately need WR.
15 Miami Dolphins - Trade alert the Dolphins trade #15 to San Diego for #18 and other stuff. The Chargers select Ryan Kerrigan OLB Purdue. -- Kerrigan isn't a fit anyways. We don't care if someone leaps up for him.
16 Jacksonville Jaguars - Aldon Smith DE Missouri. -- A risky conversion project the Pats likely won't take a chance on.

So none of those 3 teams have OT as a need. Why do the Pats trade up again when they can sit tight and just take Tyrone Smith when he drops to #17, if they even want Smith? It just makes no sense. If the draft unfolds that way at the top, I'd rather have the Pats trade down a handful of spots, get some extra picks and land a defensive end.

I don't worry just about the teams making the picks. I worry about the other 28 teams in the league who might want to trade into those slots. I promise you at least a few teams would be very interested in trading up to that range. Why do you suppose Belichick traded a 3rd or 4th round pick to Chicago to move up one spot for Warren. Chicago had zero need for DTs. But several teams behind NE did. At the least, Miami and Detroit would probably be interested in trading down.

Then trade out of 28 for more picks. Why are you in love with Smith? I see Vollmer as the Pats future LT. Drafting an RT with a 2nd or 3rd rounder would be more value effective. If Smith turns out to be strictly an RT btw, moving up to 13 for an RT is a huge waste of value.

Agreed. Guess what? If any player we draft at #17 turns out to be not as good as we expect, it's wasted value. You make your best guess with the information you have. I like Vollmer where he is, as a Pro-Bowl right tackle. If the downside of Smith is that he has to flip-flop sides with Vollmer, I can live with that.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with this analysis.

1) There is a great deal of value difference in this draft between what we will likley get at 17 and our choice of player at 12 or 13. We should expect the top players to eb drafted in the top 16. Smith is one of those players.

2) If Smith is what he seems, he is NOT a projection. He is a starting LT. I too like Vollmer at RT.

3) In essence the choices if we move up in this mock as give are

ONE
Draft Smith. Don't sign Light. Use the cap money to sign a wide receiver.

TWO
Draft Jones. Re-sign Light. Sign a 3rd round OT like Carpenter for the future.

.

Guess what? If any player we draft at #17 turns out to be not as good as we expect, it's wasted value. You make your best guess with the information you have. I like Vollmer where he is, as a Pro-Bowl right tackle. If the downside of Smith is that he has to flip-flop sides with Vollmer, I can live with that.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I agree with this analysis.

1) There is a great deal of value difference in this draft between what we will likley get at 17 and our choice of player at 12 or 13. We should expect the top players to eb drafted in the top 16. Smith is one of those players.

2) If Smith is what he seems, he is NOT a projection. He is a starting LT. I too like Vollmer at RT.

3) In essence the choices if we move up in this mock as give are

ONE
Draft Smith. Don't sign Light. Use the cap money to sign a wide receiver.

TWO
Draft Jones. Re-sign Light. Sign a 3rd round OT like Carpenter for the future.

One other thing I think we need to look at in regards to drafting an OT this year is the strength of the OT class next year. I think there will be at least 3, possibly 5 or 6 OT's that would be rated higher than any of the OT's in this draft. I think Light will be back so I think that we can afford to wait until 2012 to get a new LT/RT of the future. I would much rather do this than reach for an OT this year because I don't think there is a single OT worth a top 20 pick, and Tyron Smith is the only OT I have a first round grade on. Saying that I would still love to get a player like James Carpenter in the late 2nd/early 3rd who I think could become and elite OG in the NFL.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't worry just about the teams making the picks. I worry about the other 28 teams in the league who might want to trade into those slots. I promise you at least a few teams would be very interested in trading up to that range. Why do you suppose Belichick traded a 3rd or 4th round pick to Chicago to move up one spot for Warren. Chicago had zero need for DTs. But several teams behind NE did. At the least, Miami and Detroit would probably be interested in trading down.

He wasn't that desperate: all they gave up was a 6.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I don't think they'd draft smith...he's long on "ability" and short on experience/technique..I think they don't go for those guys.

 

[Metaphors]

Why would the Pats move up to #13 for Smith when you consider the teams in between the 13th and 17th picks:

You forgot a team. If the Pats don't trade, Detroit is still at #13. With Peterson and Amukamara gone, OT likely becomes their top target. Or they could trade with someone else who could have OT as a target as well.

Why are you in love with Smith? I see Vollmer as the Pats future LT. Drafting an RT with a 2nd or 3rd rounder would be more value effective. If Smith turns out to be strictly an RT btw, moving up to 13 for an RT is a huge waste of value.

Couple of points:

1) The Pats would be drafting him as a LT. If Vollmer is better at LT, Smith moves to RT and effectively also serves as Vollmer's backup. Now your swing tackle doesn't need to be counted on to sub at LT in case of injury like he would if you are starting a RT-only guy.

2) These "value" conversations (not just you) are driving me crazy. Brady could get equally killed by a LDE as a RDE. He feels the rush more than he sees it so he really doesn't have much of a blindside to protect. Good defenses will attack the weak spot of the OL, not just the left side. So your "huge waste" would just mean Brady gets spared several hits from Mathis and the like over the course of a season. For a potential downside, that seems like a pretty good one to me.

As for draft value, the value in this draft is at the top. I see the talent cliff for this class just after the Pats early 3rd round pick. Here is a sampling of some 92nd rated players from around the web:

• Dontay Moch
• Andy Dalton
• Terrell McClain
• Shane Vereen
• Marcus Cannon
• Curtis Marsh

All fine players, but I'm not holding back on trading up for fear of missing out on these guys. And the people who advocate trading down to get more picks outside the top 50 (or even the top 75 after the "cliff") are sniffing glue.

 

[Metaphors]

he's ... short on experience/technique

Agree to a point, but there are caveats to consider:

1) Has 2 years of starting experience...just not at left tackle. Not his fault as USC has Matt Kalil (a potential top 5 guy next year) at LT. I haven't seen anything in his makeup that says he is a RT-only guy.

2) Smith is easily the most technically sound pass protector in this draft class. His one technical issue is allowing defenders to get into his pads. While that needs work, dude has a massive wingspan. Once he masters the finer points of when to hand battle and when to extend, it will be really difficult for defenders to lock on and manipulate him.

The only reason why he wasn't a top-rated OT was that he played at under 290 lbs. If he can stay at 310+ lbs, there is no reason why he can't be an elite tackle in the NFL.

 

[dryheat44]

One other thing I think we need to look at in regards to drafting an OT this year is the strength of the OT class next year. I think there will be at least 3, possibly 5 or 6 OT's that would be rated higher than any of the OT's in this draft. I think Light will be back so I think that we can afford to wait until 2012 to get a new LT/RT of the future. I would much rather do this than reach for an OT this year .

Okay...but now you're locked into taking an OT next year. Why limit your options like that? Next year is probably a better year for OLBs and WRs and safeties also, so you could make the same argument against drafting Kerrigan, Reed, or whomever.

Yes, I would love to have Kalil at LT. And if you could guarantee me (playing BB) that I would be able to get him next year, sure, I'll be sure not to draft Smith or any other highly-rated LT this year. But maybe BB wants to target Childs or Blackmon at WR, or the next great LB or S.

 

[dryheat44]

ONE
Draft Smith. Don't sign Light. Use the cap money to sign a wide receiver.

TWO
Draft Jones. Re-sign Light. Sign a 3rd round OT like Carpenter for the future.

THREE
Draft Smith. Re-sign Light for 2 years. If Smith is ready to start by year 2, cut or trade Light.

 

[DW Toys]

Why would the Pats move up to #13 for Smith when you consider the teams in between the 13th and 17th picks:
14 St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama. -- Desperately need WR.
15 Miami Dolphins - Trade alert the Dolphins trade #15 to San Diego for #18 and other stuff. The Chargers select Ryan Kerrigan OLB Purdue. -- Kerrigan isn't a fit anyways. We don't care if someone leaps up for him.
16 Jacksonville Jaguars - Aldon Smith DE Missouri. -- A risky conversion project the Pats likely won't take a chance on.

So none of those 3 teams have OT as a need. Why do the Pats trade up again when they can sit tight and just take Tyrone Smith when he drops to #17, if they even want Smith? It just makes no sense. If the draft unfolds that way at the top, I'd rather have the Pats trade down a handful of spots, get some extra picks and land a defensive end.

Then trade out of 28 for more picks. Why are you in love with Smith? I see Vollmer as the Pats future LT. Drafting an RT with a 2nd or 3rd rounder would be more value effective. If Smith turns out to be strictly an RT btw, moving up to 13 for an RT is a huge waste of value.

Excellent point on Smith. A NFL General Managers set rule: Do not waste a pick and take a OT for the right side early. Right tackles are a dime a dozen. We have our Left Tackle of the future already. I can't see OT as a major need. Maybe 4th round with James Carpenter. I think Light comes back for reasonable $.

Some comments on our need picks.

Disagree on Kerrigan. Why?
Here are some warts on the others I have seen here:

Watt DE=Tom Condon. BB would have Condon players off his board. Would BB ever hold a grudge? Bill "elephant" Belichick would never do that. I love Watt and he would give us a career in that spot but.......

Aldon Smith OLB=This guy is purely a 4-3 DE. He is a forward moving kid. Coverage might be difficult for him. Great pass rush tools. Do they translate to the NFL? Can he play in space.

Clayborn DE= Too light for our DE position the way BB is playing it now. Too lumbering to play in space. Has that palsy health issue as well. Third round?

Ayers OLB= Why even remotely consider him? He has no pass rush. He will fit someone like the Bears who do a 4-3 and OLB is not a rush primary. We were in sub packages 57% on the time. He just can't help us. No urgency in his game. Pedestrian speed. Can't see him on our board at all. Why the hell is he rated so high?

Quinn OLB= Sexy pick. Maybe a lot of potential. Foreign to play in space. Stated to be a DE in 4-3 as optimum position. One year of a resume. Still think he could work out in the long run here but is he worth a few years of teaching when we need help now? Has benign brain tumor.

Houson OLB=Played OLB but special note: Takes plays off and disappears. How many of you wanted Moss out on a rail because of that reason? Way too inconsistent. Why even consider that issue? His best attribute?....he flashes...Yeah and then what?

Reed OLB=Love this kid. Played DE but did drop upon occasion. Might be second round pick rather than spend #17 or #28. His issue is like Quinns' but he played last year and Quinn did not. Quinn might be closer to top ten. We can save Reed to #33 perhaps.

Cameron Jordan DE= Probably the safest pick at DE. Not my cup of tea but he can rush and has enough so BB can flex him off the dirt upon occasion.

Cameron Heyward DE=Recovering from Tommy John surgery and that has me worried about playing the DE position in 2011. I think he is solid but not spectacular. Good fall back player in Round 2.

Sherad OLB=See Aldon Smith. O.K. in mid second to third round. Has some character issues just this year. Romeus was the better player until injuries this year. In Fact Romeus will be the steal of the draft IMO. The shorter Sheard is not the typical BB size ideal.

Romeus OLB= A keeper. He is your highest 2012 pick if you can let him red shirt PUP for a year like Tate. Was a top ten pick prior to 2010 season. Had disc and ACL surgery and lost his mom. Bigger and faster than Sheard. Our 2012 first round pick already here.

Wilkerson DE=Nice pick and can play some NT in a pinch.He played in a smaller school system. He does not address our pass rush though. #17 is too high. #28? I don't know.

Acho OLB=Actually played some OLB. Not as strong or talented as Orakpo. Smart. Maybe a third round talent in actuality. Shorter than BB likes.

Moch, Carter, Carter=Too small

Kerrigan OLB=3RD best cone and 40 of top ten DE's and 2nd in strength 225s. Compatible to best OLBs in combine skills. Most prototypical BB size in OLB. Extensive Pro Drills by scouts proved he can drop. Best motor in the Draft.

O.K. I see Miller as the best on paper and on tape. You have to really dig to get negatives but he won't be there anyway.

Sleeper: If Moch had another 3" in height and some structured play at OLB he would be fine, but he did his own thing at DE and it worked in NCAA.

My DE/OLB picks?
It comes back to Kerrigan,
Watt second only because of Condon,
Jordan who makes sense but is smaller that Watt,
Reed because we don't burn a higher pick,
Quinn... just threw him in but he will be gone by #17,
Aldon Smith because of his physical tools,
Romeus when healthy maybe is the top and we can get him and red shirt him this year
and Wilkerson only because he did not play at Georgia, Michigan, Florida, Ohio State etc. and does not have that big game background.

So that is my opinion and might not be shared by all Cousins here.

This is why Kerrigan intrigues me, that and his motor. I compared.

I kept this to round one and two IMO.
DW Toys

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Reed OLB=Love this kid. Played DE but did drop upon occasion. Might be second round pick rather than spend #17 or #28. His issue is like Quinns' but he played last year and Quinn did not. Quinn might be closer to top ten. We can save Reed to #33 perhaps

Quinn is the #1 OLB on my draft board. Health and character issues aside. While he is talented, I think he slips out of the top ten.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Quinn is the #1 OLB on my draft board. Health and character issues aside. While he is talented, I think he slips out of the top ten.

Quinn is the one prospect that scares me to death. Didn't play football for a year because of disciplinary reasons. Showed up to the combine, his 'job interview' out of shape. And really the red flags are everywhere. I say avoid and let someone else take the risk. He might be the next Kearse or he could easily be the next Gholston.

 

[Off The Grid]

One other thing I think we need to look at in regards to drafting an OT this year is the strength of the OT class next year. I think there will be at least 3, possibly 5 or 6 OT's that would be rated higher than any of the OT's in this draft. I think Light will be back so I think that we can afford to wait until 2012 to get a new LT/RT of the future. I would much rather do this than reach for an OT this year because I don't think there is a single OT worth a top 20 pick, and Tyron Smith is the only OT I have a first round grade on.

I could not have said that better, myself, Brother Wilfork!! :rocker:

And of course I grade Willie "Fresh Prince" Smith ~ a name you know well ~ ahead of ANY of them, save Tyron, and he's projected for the 6th Round or so, right now.

Furthermore, I ALSO grade David Sims ~ a name you ALSO know well!! ~ ahead of the lot of them...and he, TOO, is projected for the very late rounds.

I say we keep an eye open for that extraordinary 2012 Class...And, meanwhile, DRAMATICALLY ugrade the O Tackle talent by drafting BOTH of them...which of course is also YOUR stated position.

 

[Off The Grid]

And the people who advocate trading down to get more picks outside the top 50 (or even the top 75 after the "cliff") are sniffing glue.

MMMMMM....GLUUUUUUUUUUE.....HUHHHHHHHHHH...