The Ravens' Heavy Package - Leading the Way for the Pats?

[SlowGettingUp]

So here's an interesting analysis of the Baltimore Ravens' heavy package, which they used a league-leading 43% of the time, compared with a league average of 27%. They converted an amazing 69% of 3rd-downs during the regular season from this heavy set.

The Baltimore Ravens Used Their Tight Ends Differently

So how might this apply to the Pats? We now have a potential extra runner in the form of Newton, so a heavy set will almost certainly force the defence into a base package or we can simply run over them given our plus Oline and good stable of RBs. But our tight ends are very much untried, so that remains the biggest question here. On the other hand, maybe we could use a fullback and a single TE and achieve something similar. Edelman and one fast receiver (Thomas?) could make hay against most teams' base defense, particularly if Newton can improve in play action - that's still an unknown too.

Usually it's Belichick zigging when the rest of the teams are zagging, but maybe he can simply follow Harbaugh here as the rest of the league goes spread-happy.

Thoughts?

 

[luuked]

My thought is to be careful whenever trying to extrapolate something from stats that are based on gameplans/personnel usage centered around a specific outlier-level player.

None of what the Ravens are doing is particularly new or innovative. From my POV what gives teams issues with the Ravens is the incredible elusiveness of Lamar where he regularly turns situations that look like a win for the defense into conversions. If you'd be able to curb that by 50% I don't think that specific package would stand out anymore.

Someone who watched a lot more Ravens than I please correct me if I am overhyping Jackson's contribution to that third down success.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

I agree each team is different. But if you looks at the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the Pats, it would seem we are comparatively weaker at WR, but stronger at RB and OL and now also at QB from a run perspective. So emphasizing some form of a heavy package rather than a spread offense seems indicated. Of course Belichick and Daniels will mix it up and put in their own wrinkles, but I predict a lot of heavier sets of some form or other. No doubling Edelman anymore either, given the threat of Cam keeping the ball.

 

[tasmlab]

Seems like it is really rare to be able to field three good tight ends. Most of the teams barely have one really good one.

But, even without seeing the Ravens, you could imagine the match up and deception issues three tight ends and a great running QB could make. Your pass vs. run would constantly be a mystery to the defense, and when run is called you have a ton of blocking muscle on the field.

@luuked , I personally thought the Ravens O looked plenty innovative during the first half of when the Pats played them. It looked fast and chaotic to me, and they were moving. But I'm not much of an X and O type. (more of a drink beer and yell variety)

Ok, rewatching this highlight video (11 minutes), it's not all that exotic and Jackson does some pretty nifty moves on plays that shouldn't work without his talent. (Not a really fun watch). Without the two Pats turnovers, the game wouldn't have seemed so out of hand like it did. Although the Pats needed a turnover too.:



I wouldn't count on the Pats having anything at TE at this point. I'm optimistic as anyone about the two draftees, but it could take a couple years for one to emerge as being good if it happens at all. Even a two tight end set can be great if they have the players e.g., a Gronk/AH situation.

 

[luuked]

[COLOR=#000069]@luuked[/COLOR] , I personally thought the Ravens O looked plenty innovative during the first half of when the Pats played them. It looked fast and chaotic to me, and they were moving. But I'm not much of an X and O type. (more of a drink beer and yell variety)

My point was not that they are doing what everyone is doing. Their approach on offense is obviously an outlier but I'd guess the concepts they are using are not something new that Harbaugh invented in some cellar. To me what made it all so efficient is that even if you played it perfectly on paper Lamar was still able to convert at a ridiculous rate due to his insane elusiveness and awareness.

My point is not that you shouldn't try to steal some of the ways they created mismatches. I am just saying that keep in mind that a lot of what they are doing is build around the unique skillset of LJ. If you put (his backup) RG3 onto the field instead the success rate will look less impressive despite similar styles.

In the end the question is how much of the stuff they are doing is really applicable to your own players. I think we are in good hands when it comes to all of that with BB and McDaniels.

 

[tasmlab]

To me what made it all so efficient is that even if you played it perfectly on paper Lamar was still able to convert at a ridiculous rate due to his insane elusiveness and awareness.

I'm convinced. e.g., Jackson should've been tackled at least twice in this play:

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I agree with @luuked. Baltimore coordinator is Greg Roman, who was in San Francisco during the Jim Harbaugh years. They had success with both Kaepernick and Alex Smith, using lots of heavy sets (Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Garrett Celek, FB Bruce Miller). Roman is good with QBs who can run but isn't reinventing the wheel, both teams were very talented. SF had the best offensive line in the league and fast QBs. Baltimore has a good line and probably the best running quarterback ever.

Roman does call some fun stuff, here's one of my favorite play calls ever.


McDaniels clearly has ideas for how to use a mobile quarterback -- he drafted Tebow after all. Should be fun to see.

 

[Triumph]

Why would the Pats want Newton to run recovering from Lis Franc?