The Pats defense against the run should be much more of an issue this year

[LA Pats Fan]

Interesting discussion.

I am not worried about scoring slower. If we keep scoring teams will eventually need to take more risks.

Another benefit you have overlooked is that by scoring slower OUR DEFENSE stays OFF the field longer and are refreshed. Sometimes I think we score too fast. I think if we win the time off possesion battle we will be in great shape.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Interesting discussion.

I am not worried about scoring slower. If we keep scoring teams will eventually need to take more risks.

Another benefit you have overlooked is that by scoring slower OUR DEFENSE stays OFF the field longer and are refreshed. Sometimes I think we score too fast. I think if we win the time off possesion battle we will be in great shape.

There were two Pats teams last year, the first which controlled POS 35:00-25:00 in the first 8 games (until Morris got hurt) and the second half of the season when they controlled it only by 30:10-29:50. Part of this could be facing ball control teams in the second half of the season(Balt, Pit) but it could also be a lack of a balanced attack...

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

The key to a 3-4 defense is the linebackers and the nose tackle. Wilfork is a good player, but the aging linebackers have to worry you guys a little bit. I think a lot of trust is being withheld by a rookie in Mayo in the middle to help cure the run defense. Vrable is best suited as an outside pass rusher, Bruschi is a shadow of his formerself and is Seau returning or retiring?

Either way, I think the Patriots defense will be a major area of concern but as long as you have Tom Brady and Randy Moss, you should fine.

 

[Kontradiction]

I actually think our defense will be as strong as it's been since '03-'04. As long as Bruschi and Seau (if he returns) don't have to go every down we should be fine.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Our pass defense as a whole is going to be better. With Thomas spending more time outside, combined with a healthy Seymour, the pass rush will wreak havoc on opposing QBs. It all starts up front on defense, and when I look at what we have on paper, I think we'll be dominant in that respect. Letting Samuel walk was the right move, and the additions to the secondary via the draft and free agency will offset his departure. We will miss his playmaking ability, but our secondary as a whole is deeper than it has been in quite a while. A lot of our problems in pass defense last season came from short to intermediate passes over the middle, as QBs took advantage of our nickel and dime corners. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this season when we roll out our revamped secondary, led by the coaching strategy of Dom Capers.

Nice analysis! Too many people keep forgetting about Capers and what he brings to the secondary. It's no coincidence he was the first one hired

And our front seven was one reason Asante looked so good in years past. BB made some solid moves this offseason- call me a homer but I think our D has vastly improved.

 

[mgteich]

I'm with you. Why would we try to score fewer points? Morris being back will allow more options for the team as they had the first half of the season. As you say, everyone is back except Neal, and the team is addressing the right side of the OL. I just don't understand why others believe that we will score fewer points because we have better run options than in the last half of the season,.

I disagree with the basic premise. We had the highest scoring offense in NFL hisotry last year. We bring back almost the entire unit. You are assuming the offense digresses significantly? Why? You state it will be more balanced. If more balanced means a ton fewer points, why would BB want to be more balanced? He wont. We will score more points if we are less capable of scoring points, not by design.
The arguments seems to be that while we are capable of scoring a ton of points (500+) and getting out to big leads, we will choose not to because somehow balance is more important that points. I have not heard a single word out of BB that said in retrospect he would have taken fewer points for the sake of more balance last year.

On a side note, more balance may be part of this years philosophy but it will only be so IF it is expected to create more POINTS. Balance for the sake of balance is inane. Balance in order to create more opportunities in the passing game, can create more plays (i.e. throw less but get more out of it by making the D stay honest) in th epassing game, but the end result is our offensive gameplans will be the ones that BB feels will score the most points.

 

[dhamz]

I don't get the "we'll be more balanced and score less points" thing.

Early in the year (with Morris and Maroney healthy), the Pats were balanced. They scored more points then they did later in the year when the balance went away.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think the healthy Seymour factor could make a huge difference, if he really is. He said at June minicamp that this is the first time he has felt good in two years. We may be forgetting how dominant he was when he was healthy - if he can get back to even 90% of that he is going to make a huge difference.

Looking for a Seymonster sighting...

 

[captain stone]

Whatever it takes for Brady to use fewer plays involving 7-step drops from center, I'm all for it. If that means running more, scoring less, but winning TOP 35-25, then so be it. Keeping The Franchise upright & healthy should be Job #1 for this offense.

As for our Run D: I agree with those who feel, that the degree to which Hobson & Mayo assimilates into what the coaches expect of their ILBs, will tell the tale of the success, or lack thereof, of this part of the overall defense. My guess: Hobson/Mayo may not make us forget TJ/Bruschi circa 2003, but they def. will not make us remember Beisel/Brown circa 2005. And as the season progresses, so will their production.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The 4.4 ypc average was a warning. In tighter games the team could have been or will be vulnerable.

But no one has discussed the effect of the Safeties.

Harrison sat for four games. Sanders was a full time starter for his first season. Mel wasn't much, and a First round rookie, only started to catch on at the end of the season. Harrison was slowing and couldn't pace himself. Too many snaps for both him and Bruschi.

Contrast that with now. Tank looks like a genuine SS rotation with Rodney. Rodney can pace himself, now. Sanders is more secure and experienced. The prize rookie Brandon Meriwhether has now acclimated, to the NFL and the Pats. the safwety situationand the rundefesne will be much better in the box.

The ILBs will look bad the first half, as Hobson and Mayo break in, and Bruschi plays too much. But I expect the run defense to get better all year. Bruschi snaps will tail off, and he like Rodney, will be able to pace himself, more.

Where I see a change, is with the Capers philosophy. We will play more man coverage. The Pats have loaded up on man-cover corners. The issue with that is possibly tighter coverage, lower completions rates, but... the possibilities of more long completions. It will take a while to adjust, even though Hobbs is a established Pats vet, and Fernando is a new addition, wel versed and but used to the Caper's style. Wheatley looks good, but won't come on until the end of the season. I supect Webster is the third CB at least early. TWheat gradually takes the reps, as the year goes on. Wheatley looks quick enough to be a genuine improvement as a slot corner, covering the jitterbug slot WRs.

I suspect that the Pats will surrender long TDs, but as the season goes on, the Defense will stiffen and it will be awesome by playoff time.

The schedule is much easier, it is so easy that the Patriots could produce a better record than SD or Indy. They may have to do so, since they will be underdogs playing both on the road. They could lose both those games. The implications for the the playoffs would be that the Patriots would have to play on the road, unless they have a better record.

But by season end, they could even be up for that, and waltz through the playoffs. By season's end this could be the best Team edition, the Pats have ever fielded. And that says a mouthful.

 

[bradmahn]

In the playoffs, the 4.4 ypc equated to a 3.9 average and 91 yards per game against three of the league's top seven rushing offenses.

The yards per attempt argument never materialized last year when it was the same team that had allowed the 4.4 ypc, so why would it be a harbinger of doom for this year's team when it's a possibility that we may be having a front seven that looks vastly different?

Newcomers at both ILB positions could prove to be troublesome, but that particular stat from last year means nothing to me.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think they will be fine for the most part. they are an old D but as long as they can play well in the red zone, and they didnt most of last year, they will be fine. how they play in the red zone to me is a bigger issue

The Pats got a lot younger in their linebacker corps. Add Mayo, Hobson, and Crable to the mix and that spells a lot more team speed and youth in the front 7. If anything, I think they will be BETTER vs the run because they now have that sideline to sideline linebacker that can shut down the stretch plays that used to give this D fits because of their lack of speed.

 

[Kontradiction]

The 4.4 ypc average was a warning. In tighter games the team could have been or will be vulnerable.

But no one has discussed the effect of the Safeties.

Harrison sat for four games. Sanders was a full time starter for his first season. Mel wasn't much, and a First round rookie, only started to catch on at the end of the season. Harrison was slowing and couldn't pace himself. Too many snaps for both him and Bruschi.

Contrast that with now. Tank looks like a genuine SS rotation with Rodney. Rodney can pace himself, now. Sanders is more secure and experienced. The prize rookie Brandon Meriwhether has now acclimated, to the NFL and the Pats. the safwety situationand the rundefesne will be much better in the box.

The ILBs will look bad the first half, as Hobson and Mayo break in, and Bruschi plays too much. But I expect the run defense to get better all year. Bruschi snaps will tail off, and he like Rodney, will be able to pace himself, more.

Where I see a change, is with the Capers philosophy. We will play more man coverage. The Pats have loaded up on man-cover corners. The issue with that is possibly tighter coverage, lower completions rates, but... the possibilities of more long completions. It will take a while to adjust, even though Hobbs is a established Pats vet, and Fernando is a new addition, wel versed and but used to the Caper's style. Wheatley looks good, but won't come on until the end of the season. I supect Webster is the third CB at least early. TWheat gradually takes the reps, as the year goes on. Wheatley looks quick enough to be a genuine improvement as a slot corner, covering the jitterbug slot WRs.

I suspect that the Pats will surrender long TDs, but as the season goes on, the Defense will stiffen and it will be awesome by playoff time.

The schedule is much easier, it is so easy that the Patriots could produce a better record than SD or Indy. They may have to do so, since they will be underdogs playing both on the road. They could lose both those games. The implications for the the playoffs would be that the Patriots would have to play on the road, unless they have a better record.

But by season end, they could even be up for that, and waltz through the playoffs. By season's end this could be the best Team edition, the Pats have ever fielded. And that says a mouthful.

Very good post. I too hope we go back to playing more man coverage. The bend but don't break defense gave me at least four minor heart attacks last year.

 

[Ring 6]

The 4.4 ypc average was a warning. In tighter games the team could have been or will be vulnerable.

But no one has discussed the effect of the Safeties.

Harrison sat for four games. Sanders was a full time starter for his first season. Mel wasn't much, and a First round rookie, only started to catch on at the end of the season. Harrison was slowing and couldn't pace himself. Too many snaps for both him and Bruschi.

Contrast that with now. Tank looks like a genuine SS rotation with Rodney. Rodney can pace himself, now. Sanders is more secure and experienced. The prize rookie Brandon Meriwhether has now acclimated, to the NFL and the Pats. the safwety situationand the rundefesne will be much better in the box.

The ILBs will look bad the first half, as Hobson and Mayo break in, and Bruschi plays too much. But I expect the run defense to get better all year. Bruschi snaps will tail off, and he like Rodney, will be able to pace himself, more.

Where I see a change, is with the Capers philosophy. We will play more man coverage. The Pats have loaded up on man-cover corners. The issue with that is possibly tighter coverage, lower completions rates, but... the possibilities of more long completions. It will take a while to adjust, even though Hobbs is a established Pats vet, and Fernando is a new addition, wel versed and but used to the Caper's style. Wheatley looks good, but won't come on until the end of the season. I supect Webster is the third CB at least early. TWheat gradually takes the reps, as the year goes on. Wheatley looks quick enough to be a genuine improvement as a slot corner, covering the jitterbug slot WRs.

I suspect that the Pats will surrender long TDs, but as the season goes on, the Defense will stiffen and it will be awesome by playoff time.

The schedule is much easier, it is so easy that the Patriots could produce a better record than SD or Indy. They may have to do so, since they will be underdogs playing both on the road. They could lose both those games. The implications for the the playoffs would be that the Patriots would have to play on the road, unless they have a better record.

But by season end, they could even be up for that, and waltz through the playoffs. By season's end this could be the best Team edition, the Pats have ever fielded. And that says a mouthful.

I have to disagree 10000% that Bill Belcihick is going to abandon his defensive philosophy 30+ years in the making to play more man coverage and allow more big plays (the primary tenant of his philosophy is to not give up big plays) because he hired a guy to coach defensive backs who likes that style.

Bill Belichick is THE DEFENSIVE GENIUS of our generation. To assume that he hired Dom Capers to make decisions for him about how to play defense is simply ludicrous to me.
In other words, I totally reject the idea that Bill Belichick has decided that Dom Capers knows more about defense than him, has a stronger philosophy on defense, so BB will throw out what he believes in and turn the defensive philosophy of this organization over to Dom Capers.

 

[Ring 6]

Very good post. I too hope we go back to playing more man coverage. The bend but don't break defense gave me at least four minor heart attacks last year.

It also has given you 4 trips to the SB, 3 Championshiops and more wins over an 8 year stretch than any team in NFL history.

 

[Kontradiction]

It also has given you 4 trips to the SB, 3 Championshiops and more wins over an 8 year stretch than any team in NFL history.

Three trips to the Super Bowl. Our offense was responsible for our trip there last year.

 

[bradmahn]

I have to disagree 10000% that Bill Belcihick is going to abandon his defensive philosophy 30+ years in the making to play more man coverage and allow more big plays (the primary tenant of his philosophy is to not give up big plays) because he hired a guy to coach defensive backs who likes that style.

Bill Belichick is THE DEFENSIVE GENIUS of our generation. To assume that he hired Dom Capers to make decisions for him about how to play defense is simply ludicrous to me.
In other words, I totally reject the idea that Bill Belichick has decided that Dom Capers knows more about defense than him, has a stronger philosophy on defense, so BB will throw out what he believes in and turn the defensive philosophy of this organization over to Dom Capers.

The defense that Belichick was playing last year was not the same as the one he played in '86 or '91 or '01 or '02 or '03 or '04 or...

Just as he has met with Martz to discuss the changes in the passing game offensively, I don't discount the potentiality that Belichick is willing to make adjustments to his defensive schemes based on the input of respected, defensively-minded individuals.

What makes Bill so intelligent is that he knows he doesn't have all of the answers. Everything can be improved and he is willing to pick the brains of others with experience and knowledge to better himself.

 

[Ring 6]

Three trips to the Super Bowl. Our offense was responsible for our trip there last year.

You mean the defense that was allowing the fewest points in the NFL thorugh 15 games had nothing to do with it? I think that the Jags and Chargers felt our defense had a lot to do with them not advancing in the playoffs too.

 

[Kontradiction]

You mean the defense that was allowing the fewest points in the NFL thorugh 15 games had nothing to do with it? I think that the Jags and Chargers felt our defense had a lot to do with them not advancing in the playoffs too.

Of course the defense had SOMETHING to do with it. But their ability to defend other teams became easier when those said teams became one-dimensional to try to keep up with our offense's scoring. So, uh, let me say this again: our offense carried us into the Super Bowl last year.

 

[Ring 6]

The defense that Belichick was playing last year was not the same as the one he played in '86 or '91 or '01 or '02 or '03 or '04 or...

Just as he has met with Martz to discuss the changes in the passing game offensively, I don't discount the potentiality that Belichick is willing to make adjustments to his defensive schemes based on the input of respected, defensively-minded individuals.

What makes Bill so intelligent is that he knows he doesn't have all of the answers. Everything can be improved and he is willing to pick the brains of others with experience and knowledge to better himself.

There is a big difference between being open minded and listening to the ideas of others, and abandoning everything you believe, hiring a failed HC and decent coordinator and handing over the decision on defensive philosophy fronm the defensive genius of our time to that guy.

Capers has a role here. But the insinuations that our defense is going to change dramatically to match Capers philosophy and deviarte from BBs philosophy is ludicrous.

Again, what is being suggested, in the most simplistic terms is:
BB is conservative, but now that he hired Capers, who is aggressive, Capers will take over the defnese and we will be aggressive and play the style of defense that Capers wants to and BB will sit around with his thumb up his @ss saying "Thank God I found someone who knows how to run a defense,so I can abandon everything Ive ever believed"