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The Hurricane's First Round Mock


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PT55 - no disrespect intended, but knowing what we know about the Pats, the FO, and their penchant for secrecy, and your potential "insider" status, why shouldn't we think that you aren't sowing the seeds of misinformation? My gut is, you could be an insider, which would make "what you hear" suspect as the Pats are notorious for misinformation and misdirection. The other option is you aren't an insider which means this is just your your opinion. Either way, I have to say the "inside information" you have ought to be taken with more than a grain of salt. Not to say this is deliberate, but if the Pats, who value the information they covet, aren't aware of some loose lips in the organization, I'd be shocked...thusly, anything you hear might actually be fed to you. So even if you're 100% honest, AND think you have a great inside source, why wouldn't we assume either you're being fed misinformation deliberately (as we can all acknowledge media sources are treated similarly) or, you yourself are sowing the seed of misinformation for the same purpose? Just sayin...I know you keep saying its your opinion while simultaneously repeatedly holding up the holy grail of "insider information" in your posts, so I can't help but wonder...

Zeke,
No disrespect taken.
Some problems with your take on the situation and I respect the reservations by the way.
First, Don't treat the Patriots like they are the CIA. Information is leaked from them all the time and not all is rubbish.

Secondly, I KNOW my information is LEGIT and it doesn't have to be from the FO, it could be from someone whom informs the FO and whom they dearly trust know what they're talking about.

My source is not associated with the media and so there is a ZERO POSSIBILITY that it's "Smokescreen or misinformation".

Now about my misinformation? What have I given that's misinformation? Every time I've mention a player thus far it has leaked aprox. 1 week after I mentioned their interest. Not a coincidence.

About me giving my opinion. I was asked to give my opinion and I did. I haven't done that unless asked so I don't see how I could be giving out misinformation.

When it comes to Sedrick Ellis: Yes I like him and know him well, but that has nothing to do with me taking him over Long. In fact, the Patriots would too (so that's irrelevant). Where my opinion comes in is where I think they would take him over Gholston. The truth is (read what Mike Reiss wrote) it's the fans who don't believe the Patriots have interest in Ellis. I believe it's because most just wrote him off and it through most for a loop because they don't see what the Patriots see and many believe they have it figured out. The truth is the Patriots don't look at this team and see the same pressing needs as most fans seem to.

This is how it works: The Patriots have the BEST scouts in the business whom they trust whole heartedly. The scouts gather the information and make boards and then together with BB/Pioli they hammer out a draft plan and make a final board. All the main scouts and the Chief don't always agree with eachother on every player but it's ultimately up to the Chief. Does he differ sometimes yes but most of the time he doesn't.

The only people who doubt the information I give are the ones who find out their favorite player isn't on the board or as high on the Patriots draft lists as they would like. I totally understand this dilemma that's why I don't argue against what any fan feels or give my opinion unless otherwise asked because I consider it rude and I have an advantage of knowing some things. There are some who still believe and yet like the information even though they hope some isn't true and I really respect those fans.

So like I said I respect your skepticism and applaud it. However, Whether people believe me 100%, 75%, 50% or 0% it doesn't change whom I know or what I know and I don't care either way (not to be rude) because I'm not here to take credit for myself when/if the Pats draft a few of the players I mentioned should the opportunity arise. I most definitely won't gloat come Saturday and Sunday nights.

I want you to think about something. Do you honestly think other teams don't know what the Patriots are up to or have an idea? They hide stuff from the media pretty well but all teams know or have an idea what other teams are up to, Trust me on that!
PT55
 
I fully think the Pats would draft Gholston if he made it that far (I don't see him getting by the Jets if he gets to the sixth pick), I don't know about Ellis though.
 
PatsTrojans55,

I have read all your posts in this thread and respect your opinion, and I believe you are honestly delivering to the fans what you can within reason. But I will say this: If the Pats pass on Chris Long for Sedrick Ellis, we will all regret that decision for the next 10 years, and I believe it will mark the beginning of the decline of this team. Last season IMO demonstrated a dip in personnel judgment in the college draft, and a blunder like that this year would constitute a trend.

Chuck Noll in the early and mid 70s was as brilliant a judge of talent as any man in history. There is no need to rehash the Hall of Fame draft classes he strung together, year after year. BB has had a similar streak.

But one day Chuck lost it. He started making poor personnel decisions, relying on his gut, which he believed infallible, he blundered again and again out of stubbornness and the Steelers consequently declined. No man is infallible.

If the Pats take S. Ellis over Chris Long it will cause me a lot of anxiety about the personnel direction of this franchise.


Pony,

First off, not ALL fans would regret the Chief's choice of Ellis over Long. A majority would trust the decision and believe Long honestly doesn't fit the 3-4 role many first thought.

But lets deal with you. (I preface this and mean no disrespect to you) but if they had their choice of Long or Ellis and picked Ellis how would they be wrong and you be right when you haven't had the privilege of studying game film, conducting interviews and testing these fine young men? You don't seriously believe you know more about football do you? At least enough to say that it's a move that will set the franchise back and hurt it in any way for a decade.

I understand your liking for Chris Long and if you had chance to meet him you would like him more. But, he isn't a Hall of Famer and MANY have questions about his talent level and ability to get better. He not a can't miss prospect by any means.
Ask yourself this question? The Tuna, whom is a phenomenal talent evaluator, can we agree? Yet, Even though he selected Jake Long (which was a no-brainer) he didn't even CONSIDER Chris Long. Ask yourself why he didn't at least consider him as a technician of the 3-4. If Chris is a can't miss as you feel why not consider him at least over Gholston?

Again, I'm not trying to form your opinion but I just want you to keep things in perspective and still cheer for your guy.

PT55
 
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I wouldn't get too concerned, I think of ALL the talent that might be available at #7, Ellis is the 1 guy least likely for us to pick. Not only does he not fit the system (less so than even the Longs, Dorseys, etc that many including myself have argued in one way or another for) but also see above, I can't for the life of me imagine ANY scenario where PT55 is feeding us accurate information about Ellis being one of the top 3 on the Pats board...it smacks of misinformation, bad information, or bad opinion. I don't fault him...if he is an insider, more power to him for trying to boost draft stock, if not, he's obviously a Trojan fan so he's hyping his guy (obviously Rivers is a bit of a stretch at #7 so Ellis becomes the Trojan voted most-hypable for the pick) but I can't for the life of me see an angle where PT55 would give out real information 1 week before the draft if he was an insider, and if he isn't, we don't really need to worry anyway because Ellis doesn't read as any kind of fit for this team based on ANY of the "general" predictions for our prototypical 3-4 player, LEAST of all as an NT backup.


Zeke,

I wrote you on the other topic so I will deal with these highlighted issues regarding Ellis. I will preface this with this, I understand the business and when I give my opinion I do it with that understanding and I don't look at it in terms of where I went to college because I don't think in terms of a fan but a businessman and all the Trojans just simply can't cut it on the Patriots football team period.

Now, When it comes to Ellis, I ask you how you feel Ellis doesn't fit the NT position? What is this based on? I assume your preferences. He fits the NT perfectly and that's not my opinion but the Patriots and it's no secret. Here is what Mike Reiss had to say in the latest mail bag.

What do you think the Pats will do with their 7th overall pick? Trade it or keep it? Who might they draft?
Tom, East Greenville, Pa.

A: Tom, based on the opinion of people I talk to - and I say that because they know these players a lot better than I do - this is not a very good spot for the Patriots. Naturally, a lot will depend on the six players drafted before the No. 7 pick and I'm sure there are a few scenarios that the Patriots would be OK with. Yet my sense is that they will be working hard to trade down. The reason it is not a great spot is that the money that the No. 7 pick will command (around $18 million in guarantees/bonuses) should yield a top-caliber player, at a key position, with little risk/questions. After all, this player will be the third or fourth highest paid player on the club, receiving a contract similar to Adalius Thomas. I see USC defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis and Virginia offensive lineman Branden Albert as the safest choices, so if the Patriots keep the pick, I'd start my list off with them. Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston would also be on the list.

Now, How could Mike (whom talks to scouts directly, this I know to be true.) be misleading information with Michael Holley and if you go to positional rankings on Patriots.com they feel he is a great fit as well at NT.

The last highlight is the fact you quoted "General" Predictions as why he doesn't fit the 3-4. That's the mistake you made. No disrespect but mock draft sites and people's scouting reports are fine for entertainment and some are good scouts but they all talk in generalities and not specific to the Patriots. If my source and all the respected Patriots beat writers feel he fits then, I'm sorry but any fan who disagrees is simply just wrong. Does that mean he's the pick at #7 it depends on what the Chief deems is the ultimate value but to just say he doesn't fit is very wrong. He's an instant upgrade over Wright and Smith combined and that's how they look at it.
PT55
 
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Thanks for the feedback! I understand where you are coming from with Dorsey, I just happen to disagree with your assessment. I'm sure there are a bunch of people who agree with you however.
I don't doubt Dorsey is a hard enough worker to make the transition, but I have to wonder why anyone would want to use him in that role when they have an instant success as a 3-tech?

Glad to read you weren't sliding Chris Long intentionally, I'd be quite satisfied with that result in the 'Real World.' Good luck redrawing your draft.
 
Pony,

First off, not ALL fans would regret the Chief's choice of Ellis over Long. A majority would trust the decision and believe Long honestly doesn't fit the 3-4 role many first thought.

But lets deal with you. (I preface this and mean no disrespect to you) but if they had their choice of Long or Ellis and picked Ellis how would they be wrong and you be right when you haven't had the privilege of studying game film, conducting interviews and testing these fine young men? You don't seriously believe you know more about football do you? At least enough to say that it's a move that will set the franchise back and hurt it in any way for a decade.

I understand your liking for Chris Long and if you had chance to meet him you would like him more. But, he isn't a Hall of Famer and MANY have questions about his talent level and ability to get better. He not a can't miss prospect by any means.
Ask yourself this question? The Tuna is a phenomenal talent evaluator, can we agree? Yet, Even though he selected Jake Long (which was a no-brainer) he didn't even CONSIDER Chris Long. Ask yourself why he didn't at least consider him as a technician of the 3-4. If Chris is a can't miss as you feel why not consider him at least over Gholston?

Again, I'm not trying to form your opinion but I just want you to keep things in perspective and still cheer for your guy.

PT55

Thanks for replying to my fan-rant, PT55. I really enjoy your posts.

Parcells just drafted Bobby Carpenter at #18, a player Steve Hutchinson referred to as "the defensive player who runs away from contact more than anyone I've competed against in my career".

Parcells drafted Marcus Spears in rd 1, who Dallas can't wait to dump.

BParcells wasted plenty of 1st day picks in Dallas on O-linemen who became busts.

BB just drafted "stone hands" Meriweather, a totally unknown quantity, and the rest of the 2006-7 drafts have not been sterling beyond Maroney (I hold out hope for them all).

No talent evaluator, no matter how extensive the pedigree, is infallible. The assumption by decision makers that their s**t doesn't stink leads to Chuck Noll-itis, circa 1982. If we have the "BEST" scouts in the business, what happened last season, when we had zero impact from the college draft class, and watched the Giant rookies kick our @$$? Or what happened to the 2006 class, which has produced one impact player thus far, with 4 (or was it 5?) first day picks (I pray for them all)?

There are many legitimate questions about Ellis, and studying game film and asking questions in an interview setting alone do not answer them.

What makes Ellis different from the last few USC DTs, 1st rdrs, who have been busts (Patterson, Cody)?

What makes Ellis different from the numerous other highly touted USC players emerging from the Pete Carroll admin, almost all of whom have been busts (Udeze, Bing, Patterson, Cody, Justice, Bush, Leinart, Jarrett, Williams et. al.)?

Why did Ellis crash and burn at the combine (5.26 40, 4.8 ss, 7.8 3-cone etc.)?

How much did the massive talent advantage surrounding Ellis on the field impact the "game tape" everybody raves about (Maualuga, Cushing, Rivers, Jackson, Thomas, Ellis vs 11 future truckers each week)?

Is he totally over the maturity issues which plagued him as a sophomore?

Why doesn't he match up better- in terms of speed, quickness, lower body strength, size and weight- with most current impact DTs in the NFL?

As far as Chris Long's talent level and upside... I believe Chris Long is a HOFer, and I'm not going to change my opinion because some film junky condescends at me. And I mean that with great respect.

As far as the meagre knowledge of the game of weaselly little fans like me on a message board...

Last season many on this board wanted Spencer, DHarris or a trade up for Revis, if feasible. The year before many on this board wanted Kiwanuka, MJones Drew, and Richard Marshall. Maybe BB should be following our advice, instead of the advice of all the tape watchers and interviewers.

Once again, I really enjoy reading your posts. Keep it up (and damn the torpedoes, as I've said before)!
 
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Questions for PatsandTrojans55

It doesn't surprise me that the Patriots might not regard Chris Long that highly. It does surprise me that may take Ellis over Gholston and that would disappoint me, but altleast I know it's a possibility.

Do the Patriots have a player (or players) that they are targeting later who they think could have similar success (compared to Gholston) in providing a pass rush off the edge?

I'll be disappointed if we don't add an element of speed to our LB corps either before next season begins (either through the draft or a trade).
 
Zeke,
The only people who doubt the information I give are the ones who find out their favorite player isn't on the board or as high on the Patriots draft lists as they would like. I totally understand this dilemma that's why I don't argue against what any fan feels or give my opinion unless otherwise asked because I consider it rude and I have an advantage of knowing some things. There are some who still believe and yet like the information even though they hope some isn't true and I really respect those fans.

All good points; I personally have no horse in the race, I've said repeatedly, I have no idea what they are going to do on Draft Day - they always surprise me and always catch me unaware. You may be misinterpreting my comments on the "Why draft Long" thread as hope that we pick him, or interest in picking him, but honestly, I don't think he represents #7 value either (I've said a few times already, to me, for the Pats, I don't think there IS a #7 value guy available to us at #7 which is why I've hoped we trade down for a very long time). With that said, I could go into responses to your responses but that doesn't help anything or prove either of us right or wrong, I'm still speculating, and you could be rooting, hoping, or distracting for any number of deliberate or unintended reasons. From what I've read, I've yet to see any "real" scoops from what you've posted (not a knock, like Pony said above, I do enjoy reading your posts immensely, and with a few exceptions, I'm generally right there with you on your 'take' on the team from many angles, this just happens to be one where I a. don't agree with you and b. think it would definitely be in BB/Pioli's best interest to create a lot of hype surrounding Ellis at #7 to afford us a good trade down opportunity, which could certainly explain all your previous "rightness" and the possibility of there still being misdirection in this case...heck, I would, it would totally be worth it imo to get a lot of teams thinking we love Ellis via the "viral" route since they are often closed lipped to the media). Ultimately I'll be curious to see how Saturday an Sunday pan out, and if they take Ellis, I'll assume it's for a good reason and I'll be the first to give credit where credit is/was due for breaking the news (fingers crossed regardless) but my gut still tells me Ellis is not our guy for a variety of reasons - your zeal is only one of them.
 
Questions for PatsandTrojans55

It doesn't surprise me that the Patriots might not regard Chris Long that highly. It does surprise me that may take Ellis over Gholston and that would disappoint me, but altleast I know it's a possibility.

Do the Patriots have a player (or players) that they are targeting later who they think could have similar success (compared to Gholston) in providing a pass rush off the edge?

I'll be disappointed if we don't add an element of speed to our LB corps either before next season begins (either through the draft or a trade).

Yes, they have other players they feel would provide very good value later at OLB if they should go another direction early. They have some D-Tackles in mind as well. The question is (with respect to the Ellis/Gholston) whether for example: Do they feel the number 2 Pass Rush OLB is a closer gap in value or Do they feel the number 2 DT is closer. Right now the options at Pass Rush OLB is deeper than DT.
PT55
 
I don't believe that Branden Albert is as safe people think. He was a guard who'd move to tackle. I'm not sold on him. He'd be an excellent guard, but as a RT I'm not so sure.
 
Thanks for replying to my fan-rant, PT55. I really enjoy your posts.

Parcells just drafted Bobby Carpenter at #18, a player Steve Hutchinson referred to as "the defensive player who runs away from contact more than anyone I've competed against in my career".

Obviously, Hutchinson has never lined up against Monty Beisel. I think he's probably the single worst personnel decision that Bel----wait....Duane Starks!

I don't understand the love affair half this board seems to have with Carpenter....as in specifically targeting Carpenter in a trade with Dallas. Is it left over from his draft year? He was horribly overrated at OSU, and the fact that he can't get off the bench in a 3-4 defense by either Parcells or Phillips tells me he's bloody useless.
 
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Adam Schfeter said on EEI this morning that he thinks the two players the Patriots are looking at are Keith Rivers and Branden Albert. He also said that he believes that Chris Long will go #5 to KC.
 
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Adam Schfeter said on EEI this morning that he thinks the two players the Patriots are looking at are Keith Rivers and Branden Albert. He also said that he believes that Chris Long will go #5 to KC.

Imagine that....Senile Al seeing one of his all-time favorite player's son lining up against him in the colors of a hated archrival.

I can see Long going to Oakland and Gholston to Kansas City. Which would leave McFadden, or Ellis for the Jets.

If the Patriots are trying to induce the Jets into taking Ellis, they're really doing a masterful job of it.
 
I don't think the Patriots drafting Albert's makes sense, because he would instantly become your highest paid OL, also would you want pay that much for a RT? I know Tom Brady is the franchise and we must protect him, but isn't that a bit excessive. I think you could get a quality OL later in the draft, or sometime this summer. Albert will be a very good pro, but at#7 I think's it a bit overboard, he is neither Walter Jones or Steve Hutchinson.
 
Imagine that....Senile Al seeing one of his all-time favorite player's son lining up against him in the colors of a hated archrival.

I can see Long going to Oakland and Gholston to Kansas City. Which would leave McFadden, or Ellis for the Jets.

If the Patriots are trying to induce the Jets into taking Ellis, they're really doing a masterful job of it.

I think your right about Long and Gholston you could flip-flop them. I think Davis would have a hard time passing on Howie's son. That being said the talk is that the Raiders love Gholston. They love his size and speed and feel he can be a domiant pass rusher.

If the Patriots are playing the Jets, all I have to say is WOW. I do think their interest i serious in Ellis. I'd be shocked if the Jets passed on McFadden. It just seems to obvious of a choice for them. I'd also be shocked if the Patriots took either River's or Albert's.
 
I don't think the Patriots drafting Albert's makes sense, because he would instantly become your highest paid OL, also would you want pay that much for a RT? I know Tom Brady is the franchise and we must protect him, but isn't that a bit excessive. I think you could get a quality OL later in the draft, or sometime this summer. Albert will be a very good pro, but at#7 I think's it a bit overboard, he is neither Walter Jones or Steve Hutchinson.

I agree 100%. I don't buy the stuff that he played guard becuase Ferguson was at tackle. D'Brick left UVA after Albert's freshman year. If he is capable of getting drafted as a tackle in the top 12 of the draft, he certainly would've lined up a Left Tackle full time over the past two years (I do think he played there quite a bit during his Sophomore year, but then why'd Groh move him inside?)
 
I think your right about Long and Gholston you could flip-flop them. I think Davis would have a hard time passing on Howie's son. That being said the talk is that the Raiders love Gholston. They love his size and speed and feel he can be a domiant pass rusher.

If the Patriots are playing the Jets, all I have to say is WOW. I do think their interest i serious in Ellis. I'd be shocked if the Jets passed on McFadden. It just seems to obvious of a choice for them. I'd also be shocked if the Patriots took either River's or Albert's.

I actually don't see the Jets picking at #6. If they do, I can't see them taking McFadden. I don't believe smart teams take running backs that high in the draft, especially ones that have as many ?s as McFadden. Is he an every down back? Is he an undue injury risk? Is his character and judgement sound?

Even if all these questions are answered, I believe smart teams are looking at RBs as leased cars. Use them for a few years, drive them into the ground, then change them with one with less mileage and wear on it when it's time for the next contract. And is it worth paying 20 million dollars more for a Mercedes (McFadden) than a Chrysler (Forte, Rice, Felix Jones...or even trading down to Mendenhall) when you could spend the extra money making big improvements to your house instead?

Wow...that analogy got away from me. Suffice to say, I think RBs are the most fungible position on the team except for the top 2% (much like my feelings on redheads...but I digress), and I think GMs are coming around on that idea. If the Jets feel that McFadden is in the Brown, Payton, Sanders, category, then sure, draft him. I suspect he isn't and that they don't.

I think it's more likely the Jets trade up for Ryan. I have McFadden sliding to the 8-14 range.
 
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I agree 100%. I don't buy the stuff that he played guard becuase Ferguson was at tackle. D'Brick left UVA after Albert's freshman year. If he is capable of getting drafted as a tackle in the top 12 of the draft, he certainly would've lined up a Left Tackle full time over the past two years (I do think he played there quite a bit during his Sophomore year, but then why'd Groh move him inside?)

I'm totally on board with the Heatster. If converting college DEs to 3-4 OLBs is considered a risky proposition in the top 10, what about converting college guards to NFL left tackles? Albert has Cherilus disease: He's a bit top heavy, not a great knee bender and does not show great lateral agility. That's not a problem vs Middle Tennessee State. However, that leads to incredible embarrassment against Jason Taylor. Albert is a guard, pure and simple. He's very good at it, and he needs to stay there for maximum NFL impact.

BTW, I goofed on my criticism of DT Mike Patterson. He isn't a bust; he just got busted:
http://cbs3.com/local/Mike.Patterson.Philadelphia.2.661023.html
My bad.
 
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Let's just say that Chris Long, Gholston, Dorsey, and Ellis are gone (Unlikely their all gone), but let's just say for this that they are, would you then select McFadden at #7? Something about he really intrigues me. I know it probably be dumb and never happen, but him on this offense spliting time with Maroney would be SCARY. It's very far-fetched and may not make the most football sense, but he's got so much talent, and even though you don't need him passing on him would be tough. The Patriots have the luxury of taking someone like him, cause we are so deep. Just wanted to get some thoughts? I know Dryheat is against this.
 
All good points; I personally have no horse in the race, I've said repeatedly, I have no idea what they are going to do on Draft Day - they always surprise me and always catch me unaware. You may be misinterpreting my comments on the "Why draft Long" thread as hope that we pick him, or interest in picking him, but honestly, I don't think he represents #7 value either (I've said a few times already, to me, for the Pats, I don't think there IS a #7 value guy available to us at #7 which is why I've hoped we trade down for a very long time). With that said, I could go into responses to your responses but that doesn't help anything or prove either of us right or wrong, I'm still speculating, and you could be rooting, hoping, or distracting for any number of deliberate or unintended reasons. From what I've read, I've yet to see any "real" scoops from what you've posted (not a knock, like Pony said above, I do enjoy reading your posts immensely, and with a few exceptions, I'm generally right there with you on your 'take' on the team from many angles, this just happens to be one where I a. don't agree with you and b. think it would definitely be in BB/Pioli's best interest to create a lot of hype surrounding Ellis at #7 to afford us a good trade down opportunity, which could certainly explain all your previous "rightness" and the possibility of there still being misdirection in this case...heck, I would, it would totally be worth it imo to get a lot of teams thinking we love Ellis via the "viral" route since they are often closed lipped to the media). Ultimately I'll be curious to see how Saturday an Sunday pan out, and if they take Ellis, I'll assume it's for a good reason and I'll be the first to give credit where credit is/was due for breaking the news (fingers crossed regardless) but my gut still tells me Ellis is not our guy for a variety of reasons - your zeal is only one of them.

Zeke,
I will answer this in 2 parts.

Something for you to ponder:
Each year the drafts are very different with different obsticles to over come and it takes on its own personality. This year the whole "smokescreen" argument doesn't apply so much with respect to the Patriots because lets look: Let's assume there are 6 really Top players and the players that you could throw a blanket over. What the Patriots are looking at is simply who falls to them at #7. Who falls will determine whether a trade option is avaliable or not (that's why many fanswant Matt Ryan or McFadden to fall to boost value). In this draft Ellis makes no sense as a smokescreen because there are 2 DT's that are a clear cut above the rest and he's 1a or 1b depending on who you talk to.

It sounds to me a bit like you've made a determination on who you feel is worthy of #7 and your judgement is that Ellis is not qualified. But, that's not good judgement to not include others as possibilities like Gholston, Dorsey and others. Their interest in Ellis is legit and it's high (That's not the question). The question is whether they like the value of Ellis or Gholston over the value of player X plus trade compensation. They haven't really smokescreened at all this year because of draft positioning just doesn't warrant it this time.

PT55
 
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