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The Hurricane's First Round Mock

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by The Hurricane, Apr 21, 2008.

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  1. The Hurricane

    The Hurricane Rookie

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    OK, I've thrown enough opinion around this forum that I feel obligated to post a mock. As I'm writing this I am planning on including commentary. We'll see how that goes.

    First the juicy stuff:
    *TRADE* Kansas City trades Jared Allen and pick #36 to the Minnesota Vikings for picks #17, #48, #83, and the Vikings 2009 1st Rounder
    *TRADE* San Francisco trades pick #29 to the Baltimore Ravens for picks #39 and #100 (SF selects Quentin Groves/ DE /Auburn at #39)
    *TRADE* Houston trades pick #18 to the Pittsburgh Steelers for picks #23 and #89

    1. Miami Dolphins- Glenn Dorsey / DT / LSU
    The Dolphins get the dominant 3-4 DE they need to anchor their defense for years to come.

    2. St. Louis Rams- Jake Long / OT / Michigan
    The Rams rebuild there OL with the stud LT and consensus top 5 pick.

    3. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan / QB / Boston College
    With Dorsey off the board this decision is easy for Atlanta. They address their most glaring need and take the top rated QB.

    4. Oakland Raiders- Darren McFadden / RB / Arkansas
    Al Davis loves his physical freaks. This could just as easily be Vernon Gholston, However, I am going to go out on a limb and say Davis has DMC graded as the BPA and he sticks to his draft board.

    5. Kansas City Chiefs- Sedrick Ellis / DT / USC
    Ellis is a force at DT and the Chiefs take him to begin rebuilding their defensive line.

    6. New York Jets- Vernon Gholston / DE / Ohio State
    Mangina desperately needs players that fit the 3-4 scheme since the Jets didn't have any when he made the brilliant decision to switch out of the 4-3 so Gholston is a dream pick for the Jets. If the Raiders end up taking Gholston I think the jets take McFadden as he is too good to pass up.

    7. New England Patriots (f/SF)- Chris Long / DE / Virginia
    This kid is an amazing athlete, a hard worker, and the son of a Hall of Famer. He would be a great addition to the Patriots.

    8. Baltimore Ravens- Leodis McKelvin / CB / Troy
    Baltimore would love for Matt Ryan to fall to them here. Unfortunately he doesn't so they take the top rated corner instead.

    9. Cincinnati Bengals- Derrick Harvey / DE / Florida
    The Bengals need a replacement for Justin Smith at DE and it just so happens Harvey, the BPA, fills this need.

    10. New Orleans Saints- Keith Rivers / OLB / USC
    The Saints have addressed some of their needs in the secondary through free agency so all signs point to them drafting a LB.

    11. Buffalo Bills- Devin Thomas / WR / Michigan State
    The Bills add a big fast WR to compliment Lee Evans in their passing attack.

    12. Denver Broncos- Branden Albert / OG / Virginia
    Albert is a terrific athlete who can play both tackle and guard. The Bronco's draft him to as a tackle and also to serve as a contingency at guard if Josh Beekman doesn't work out for them.

    13. Carolina Panthers- Ryan Clady / OT / Boise State
    Even if the Panthers do manage to resign Jordan Gross, they still need help at tackle. The threat of Gross leaving next year only amplifies this need.

    14. Chicago Bears- Brian Brohm / QB / Louisvile
    It's a bit of a reach according to most of the draft gurus but the Bears know that Grossman and Orton are not the longterm solution at QB and they draft Brohm as their QB of the future. He likely needs a year or two to develop and the bears can afford to wait.

    15. Detroit Lions- Rashard Mendenhall / RB / Illinois
    This is an obvious pick. Detriot Desperately needs a premier runningback.

    16. Arizona Cardinals- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie / CB / Tennessee State
    Corner is a huge need and the cardinals draft DRC, a corner with tremendous upside.

    17. Kansas City Chiefs (f/MIN)- Phillip Merling / DE / Clemson
    Kansas City would love to keep Jared Allen but he has made it clear that he wants out so they do the next best thing and extract as much value as they can out of him. They draft Merling to fill the gap left by losing Allen. Minnesota thought they had this position taken care of but Udeze was recently diagnosed with Leukemia and will be sidelined for the forseeable future. Minnesota knows they need to address this position and they trade for one of the most dominant DE in the game.

    18. Pittsburgh Steelers (f/HOU)- Jeff Otah / OT / Pittsburgh
    Otah is an absolute monster and will be a force in the running game. He is the Steelers top rated Tackle and as soon as he drops within range the Steelers put the trigger on a trade to ensure they get him. Houston is looking for a tackle as well but they especially need help at LT and Chris Williams is a much better fit than Otah at that position. #18 is a reach for Chris Williams so when the Steelers come calling, Houston does not hesitate to trade down.

    19. Philadelphia Eagles- Limas Sweed / WR / Texas
    The Eagles need help at WR and Sweed is a great addition to their offense.

    20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Mike Jenkins / CB / South Florida
    Tampa needs depth at cornerback and a guy to step in for Ronde Barber once his skills begin to erode.

    21. Washington Redskins- Kentwan Balmer / DT / North Carolina
    Washington needs help all along the defensive line and Balmer is the best guy left at those positions.

    22. Dallas Cowboys (f/CLE)- Aqib Talib / CB / Kansas
    Dallas needs help at corner and they take the highest rated corner left.

    23. Houston Texans(f/PIT)- Chris Williams / OT / Vanderbilt
    Houston's guy is still available at number 23 and they jump on the opportunity to draft him.

    24. Tennessee Titans- Jerod Mayo / MLB / Tennessee
    Tennessee could use an upgrade at MLB and a hometown guy like Mayo is the perfect way to address this need.

    25. Seattle Seahawks- Gosder Cherilus / OT / Boston College
    Seattle needs help at RT and they draft Cherilus to fill this need. He's a great fit at RT and the only reason he is not rated higher is because there are questions as to whether he is fast enough to play LT.

    26. Jacksonville Jaguars- Calais Campbell / DE / Miami
    Jacksonville needs help at both DE and DT. I think they would prefer to draft Balmer here, but he's not available and Campbell is the last d-lineman left with a first round grade so they pick him.

    27. San Diego Chargers- Kenny Phillips / S / Miami
    The Chargers need help at FS and they get the top rated safety in Kenny Phillips.

    28. Dallas Cowboys- Jonathan Stewart / RB / Oregon
    The trendy pick for Dallas here is Felix Jones but I just cannot bring myself to have them drafting Jones here with Stewart still on the board. Jerry Jones may have a man crush on Felix but in this scenario Stewart is the guy.

    29. Baltimore (f/IND via SF)- Joe Flacco / QB / Delaware
    This is the worst case scenario for Baltimore. First Matt Ryan is gone before #8, then the Bears reach for Brohm. Baltimore desperately needs a QB and with Miami, KC and even GB all picking in front of them, it is completely possible for Baltimore to miss out on the entire top 3 at QB if they don't trade up. This is a desperation trade for Baltimore. If Brohm is available they take him, otherwise they take a chance on Joe Flacco.

    30. Green Bay Packers- Reggie Smith / S / Oklahoma
    The Packers need secondary help and Reggie Smith is the highest player left on their draft board. I would be SHOCKED if they take Cason here as GB runs a man coverage scheme and Cason is a much better fit for the zone. GB already tried drafting a zone guy once with Ahmad Carroll and he was a terrible fit. GB learns from their mistakes and takes the versatile Smith instead.

    * New England Patriots - Selection Forfeited

    32. New York Giants- Antoine Cason / CB / Arizona
    The Giants need secondary help and they need help at OLB. Their first choice is to address a need at Safety but the top two are already gone. So they do the next best thing and draft Cason at corner.


    Anyways, there is my first round mock. I may add a second round sometime in the near future. Let me know what you guys think.:rocker:
  2. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I'd love to see it happen, but Chris Long falling that far seems highly unlikely. Ultimately he's the one guy I see worthy of trading up for though so let's hope we don't have to. :rocker:
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not to be overly critical of your effort and willingness to put it on the line, but you lost me at #1. Dorsey is not a 3-4 DE, he's a natural three-technique who can play the run well and has the strength to defeat double-teams. Asking him to lock-up offensive linemen the way Sey or Ty do isn't playing to his strengths. I'd love to have Chris Long too, but you can still slide him by sending Dorsey to any of the next four teams who play his style of game.

    8. I can see it, but I can also see them taking an OT to backstop Ogden - a need that is becoming more critical for them.

    14. Nothing against Brohm, but they really need OT help and there are still some good ones left on the board to consider.

    The latter two are mild disagreements, overall a nice effort.
  4. The Hurricane

    The Hurricane Rookie

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    Thanks for the feedback! I understand where you are coming from with Dorsey, I just happen to disagree with your assessment. I'm sure there are a bunch of people who agree with you however.

    Also, just to clarify, I made this mock as realistic as possible. My goal was not to slide long. I hadn't even given any thought to who the Patriots would get until I had already made the Jets pick. I could see the Patriots trading up to 5 as well with KC as long as KC wasn't asking TOO much. Something like KC trades #5 for #7 and #95. If they were demanding our high 3rd rounder I doubt we would move up.

    I also could see the Ravens going OT. For some reason my gut is telling me Clady over Albert. I could be very wrong about that.

    You are right about the Bears needing OT help but Brohm has got to be tempting. I think there is a good chance that they secretly want him and are just keeping very quiet about it in hopes that others won't panic and pick him.
  5. Watson's IQ

    Watson's IQ Rookie

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    Yeah, not gonna happen. I'd love it, but I really don't see any way he falls. Even if he fell to 6 (unlikely), the Jets would almost certainly prefer him over Gholston. As they should.
  6. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    You don't see Chris Long falling? As of now, he is the most likely guy to fall. If the Raiders pass on him and take Gholston the Jets will have to pick between Long and McFadden and they most likely will take McFadden. Here is the most recent Mock 1-7
    1)-Jake Long
    2)-Glenn Dorsey
    3)-Matt Ryan
    4)-Vernon Gholston
    5)-Let's such say Ryan Clady, but it could be Sedrick Ellis or another OL
    6)-Darren McFadden
    7)-Chris Long
  7. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    Looks like there will be some very surprised fans here if C. Long is on the board when the Patriots are on the clock. With Jake Long and the Dolphins agreeing today on a contract, The Rams will begin to talk to Dorsey and then the fun starts and if the Raiders or Jets don't take Long he will be probably be picked 8th or 9th on a trade up. By the way if Gholston and Chris are on the board the Patriots would take Gholston and it's not even close if it's between them but I don't get that feeling from what I hear people will be surprised is all I will say.

    PT55
  8. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    I highly doubt both of them would be on the board at #7. The Raiders will most likely take one of them. Also, so could the Chiefs if they trade Jared Allen before the draft. If Gholston is gone and Chris Long is on the board there is no way they pass on him.
  9. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    No Offense but that's your opinion. I don't deal in my opinion I simply deal with what I'm hearing. Don't mean to burst your bubble but your assuming that they have Gholston/Long or Long/Gholston as there Top-rated player and that's simply not the case (with respect to Long anyway). Your saying that they would take Long over a player like Ellis at #7 and I'm telling you that you would be surprised. They simply don't have Chris rated as their Top-3 players unless BB changes what I know to be true which is possible but not very probable. I'm not going to argue with you because I'm not trying to change your opinion, you pick and root for whomever you please, but I want you to understand I'm not giving my opinion here.

    PT55
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2008
  10. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    Your hinting at that they have Sedrick Ellis in their Top 3. I like Sedrick Ellis alot, and I would understand why they would take him. I just think that Chris Long would make more sense. I feel that Long is a better player then Ellis is anyways. I'd have no problem selecting Ellis, but not over Long. I don't know if the Patriots fell in love with Ellis at the Senior Bowl, but selecting him over Ellis would be a mistake in my opinion. I believe that Gholston will most likely go to the Raiders, but so very well could Long.

    So, in your opinion who would the Patriots take Gholston or Ellis?
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2008
  11. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    If you want my opinion, I'll give it to you. In my opinion they will take Ellis over Gholston. I don't have time to explain why in great depth but I will say this Ellis gives them more options than Gholston or Long. Also, I don't mention Chris because 3 teams view Long about the same and all three are 3-4 teams. Miami didn't consider Chris because of these concerns and the Patriots feel much like the Tuna feels when they watch Chris on film. It sticks out pretty clearly.

    By the way don't assume they prefer Gholston, Ellis or whomever over a trade down, if the opportunity should arise.
    It's going to be a great draft.
    PT55
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2008
  12. The Hurricane

    The Hurricane Rookie

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    Well, there goes that theory :bricks:. Miami ended up signing Jake Long after all. As much as I'd like to pretend St.Louis will take Glen Dorsey with their pick, I don't think it's the best move for them, which means this signing is going to completely flip my draft around. I'll take a look at the new situation tonight and see what I come up with.
  13. mike100915

    mike100915 Rookie

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    I think the reason that you feel this way about Ellis is that both Wilfork and Seymour are Free Agents after the 09 season and they will not resign both. Most likely Seymour will be signing on somewhere else. I think Long is better suited for OLB in a 3-4, but he could play a little bit of end for you. Selecting Gholston would make me nervous a bit, this guy has all the tools in the world to be great, but he doesn't always show up. Long always shows up. Gholston has the potential to be greater, but Long is much safer. I have thought for the past couple weeks that Ellis would be the pick, I'm just holding out hope for C Long.
  14. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    With respect to Chris Long, that's not a problem. Like I said, I'm not trying to change your opinion just giving you what I hear. With respect to Ellis. My picking Ellis actually has nothing to do with either Seymour or Wilfork's contracts. In fact, If I could give my opinion I would bet they will resign both anyway. My opinion is based on what I've heard and the way I see them looking at this draft. For instance, what do they see as a better upgrade, a back-up to AD or Vrabel or a back-up to Wilfork. And in my conclusion I see them being more concerned about the talent behind Vince (In which Ellis would instantly upgrade) as opposed to the talent at OLB which is not as bad as some seem to think. If Vince goes down, the Pats are in Bigger trouble on defense than any other position. Wright is not a NT and Smith is not as talented and dominant than Ellis.
    *Again this is MY OPINION*
    PT55
  15. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I hope it's mostly based on what you think you see... I can't fathom them drafting a backup to the NT they grabbed for tremendous value at #21 at #7. No backup, no conversion
    project, no rotational player. Bill said at #7 you have to find an 8 year pro bowler. For that to happen the player first has to be a starter. There is something unsettling about the picture of Belioli signing a backup to a $40M deal with as much guaranteed money as Seymour and AD got. And since that's more than they would have paid Asante, I can't see them giving it to a corner either. BTW if Brady goes down we're probably in bigger trouble then when Drew was here... yet we back him up with a 7th rounder and an UDFA... Just like you can only have so many Top 5 contract players on the roster and you can't have a pro bowler at every position, you can't back up your starters with top ten draft picks. Seymour has a backup who it turns out would arguably start on a lot of teams. But he didn't get drafted by us until the end of the 4th.
  16. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    Great post.
  17. PatsandTrojans55

    PatsandTrojans55 Rookie

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    I understand your thoughts but do me a favor and name one player in the Top 8 other than Jake Long that you can say will be a 8 time Pro Bowl caliber player? If you are honest with yourself you can't find one. After Jake there's a couple safe bets and a bunch of crap shoots.

    By the way Mike Reiss agrees with my premise. In his newest mailbag.(I wonder who he talked to).

    What do you think the Pats will do with their 7th overall pick? Trade it or keep it? Who might they draft?
    Tom, East Greenville, Pa.

    A: Tom, based on the opinion of people I talk to - and I say that because they know these players a lot better than I do - this is not a very good spot for the Patriots. Naturally, a lot will depend on the six players drafted before the No. 7 pick and I'm sure there are a few scenarios that the Patriots would be OK with. Yet my sense is that they will be working hard to trade down. The reason it is not a great spot is that the money that the No. 7 pick will command (around $18 million in guarantees/bonuses) should yield a top-caliber player, at a key position, with little risk/questions. After all, this player will be the third or fourth highest paid player on the club, receiving a contract similar to Adalius Thomas. I see USC defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis and Virginia offensive lineman Branden Albert as the safest choices, so if the Patriots keep the pick, I'd start my list off with them. Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston would also be on the list.

    Remember this is about value.
    PT55
  18. Zeke_Mowatt

    Zeke_Mowatt Rookie

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    PT55 - no disrespect intended, but knowing what we know about the Pats, the FO, and their penchant for secrecy, and your potential "insider" status, why shouldn't we think that you aren't sowing the seeds of misinformation? My gut is, you could be an insider, which would make "what you hear" suspect as the Pats are notorious for misinformation and misdirection. The other option is you aren't an insider which means this is just your your opinion. Either way, I have to say the "inside information" you have ought to be taken with more than a grain of salt. Not to say this is deliberate, but if the Pats, who value the information they covet, aren't aware of some loose lips in the organization, I'd be shocked...thusly, anything you hear might actually be fed to you. So even if you're 100% honest, AND think you have a great inside source, why wouldn't we assume either you're being fed misinformation deliberately (as we can all acknowledge media sources are treated similarly) or, you yourself are sowing the seed of misinformation for the same purpose? Just sayin...I know you keep saying its your opinion while simultaneously repeatedly holding up the holy grail of "insider information" in your posts, so I can't help but wonder...
  19. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    PatsTrojans55,

    I have read all your posts in this thread and respect your opinion, and I believe you are honestly delivering to the fans what you can within reason. But I will say this: If the Pats pass on Chris Long for Sedrick Ellis, we will all regret that decision for the next 10 years, and I believe it will mark the beginning of the decline of this team. Last season IMO demonstrated a dip in personnel judgment in the college draft, and a blunder like that this year would constitute a trend.

    Chuck Noll in the early and mid 70s was as brilliant a judge of talent as any man in history. There is no need to rehash the Hall of Fame draft classes he strung together, year after year. BB has had a similar streak.

    But one day Chuck lost it. He started making poor personnel decisions, relying on his gut, which he believed infallible, he blundered again and again out of stubbornness and the Steelers consequently declined. No man is infallible.

    If the Pats take S. Ellis over Chris Long it will cause me a lot of anxiety about the personnel direction of this franchise.
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2008
  20. Zeke_Mowatt

    Zeke_Mowatt Rookie

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    I wouldn't get too concerned, I think of ALL the talent that might be available at #7, Ellis is the 1 guy least likely for us to pick. Not only does he not fit the system (less so than even the Longs, Dorseys, etc that many including myself have argued in one way or another for) but also see above, I can't for the life of me imagine ANY scenario where PT55 is feeding us accurate information about Ellis being one of the top 3 on the Pats board...it smacks of misinformation, bad information, or bad opinion. I don't fault him...if he is an insider, more power to him for trying to boost draft stock, if not, he's obviously a Trojan fan so he's hyping his guy (obviously Rivers is a bit of a stretch at #7 so Ellis becomes the Trojan voted most-hypable for the pick) but I can't for the life of me see an angle where PT55 would give out real information 1 week before the draft if he was an insider, and if he isn't, we don't really need to worry anyway because Ellis doesn't read as any kind of fit for this team based on ANY of the "general" predictions for our prototypical 3-4 player, LEAST of all as an NT backup.
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