The "Hard Teams" on our schedule are looking dinged up...

[Metaphors]

Manning was always fine. The Patriots aren't the only team capable of lying about injuries. He was always going to be ready. The Colts are going to be the team to beat as always.

Rivers and Tomlinson will be fine too. Merriman is the one guy who won't be (that's still a big loss, but the Chargers will still be a tough team). And Favre is overrated, but he did have a pretty good year last year. I don't think he'll be any better than, say, Pennington, but I always liked Pennington.

Manning has been losing the zip on his fastball for the last couple of years (making his title run all the more ironic). His YPA has be declining for the last couple of years. His interceptions and sacks are at their highest levels in several years. His injury, while not generally severe in nature, has been problematic during his recovery (infection, swelling). There are absolutely no positive trends (none, zero, zip) for Manning in 2008.

Rivers looks terrible moving and throwing on that knee. His arm is plenty strong, but he is throwing off his front foot. His sidearm, slinging delivery combined with a hampered plant leg is going to kill his accuracy down the field. Still very effective on most routes, but he looks to be heading into the season limited in what he can do...which is to be expected since he had ACL surgery 6+ months ago.

Tomlinson is creeping up on 30 and 3000 touches in his career. Coming off a career low in YPC and career high in fumbles and fumbles lost. Doesn't have Neal clearing a path for him anymore. Wouldn't be surprised at all if LdT is already on the downward side of his career and injuries play a big part of that story.

Add in potential situations with Lilja, Saturday and Merriman and the Colts/Chargers have some concerns. Pittsburgh has an unsettled OL and a RB who carries the ball like his hands are covered in bacon fat (likely residue from being tackled by Casey Hampton in practice). If Jacksonville can find dependable receivers (or at least receivers that get friends to cut their blow for them), they look like the team best positioned to make a step up this year.

 

[JSn]

If Jacksonville can find dependable receivers (or at least receivers that get friends to cut their blow for them), they look like the team best positioned to make a step up this year.

While I did LOL, I think they're going to be a force in that division this year and possibly dominant next year. I think have made a big leap in the QB dept. and that's where it's going to count. IMHO

 

[spacecrime]

I'm willing to hide from slings and arrows over this: I hope these teams are running smooth when we face them.

Not from me. I never liked the idea that it is better to back into a victory than win it outright.

If the Pats are the best in the NFL, and I believe that to be true, then they should beat the best.

 

[dhamz]

Manning has been losing the zip on his fastball for the last couple of years (making his title run all the more ironic). His YPA has be declining for the last couple of years. His interceptions and sacks are at their highest levels in several years. His injury, while not generally severe in nature, has been problematic during his recovery (infection, swelling). There are absolutely no positive trends (none, zero, zip) for Manning in 2008.

All he has done the last couple years is throw for 8400 yards with 62 TDs vs 23 Ints. Yeah, Peyton is horrible.

 

[JSn]

All he has done the last couple years is throw for 8400 yards with 62 TDs vs 23 Ints. Yeah, Peyton is horrible.

Metaphors isn't saying he sucked, he's measuring trends. The humans playing these games means that very few players will peak twice.

 

[Metaphors]

All he has done the last couple years is throw for 8400 yards with 62 TDs vs 23 Ints. Yeah, Peyton is horrible.

Never said he was horrible. Said he was trending in the wrong direction. I think it is a mistake to assume that Manning is going to be producing the same or better results this year. He might but I think that would be bucking the trend, not continuting a positive one.

 

[dhamz]

Never said he was horrible. Said he was trending in the wrong direction. I think it is a mistake to assume that Manning is going to be producing the same or better results this year. He might but I think that would be bucking the trend, not continuting a positive one.

This assumes a QBs performance is in a vaccum.

Tom Brady had been trending negatively for 2 years prior to last year. His TDs had decreased 2 consecutive years, same with passer rating, same with yards per attempt, his completion % was down below 62%. Brady wasn't in decline, he didn't have the weapons.

Manning's "decline" is a lot more like Brady's "decline" - it is the change in weapons dictating it. Manning's yards per attempt were a lock to go down. Their 3 WR offense changed to 2 TEs with Clark replacing Stokely in the slot. When you replace a guy who averages 14.5 yards per catch in his career with a guy who averages 12.5, it will impact the QBs numbers. Last years numbers should be worse across the board - he lost a HOF WR and repalced him with a rookie. He's getting sacked more because they made changes on the line.

Football isn't an individual sport. It is why football statistics can't be used like baseball statistics.

 

[JSn]

This assumes a QBs performance is in a vaccum.

Tom Brady had been trending negatively for 2 years prior to last year. His TDs had decreased 2 consecutive years, same with passer rating, same with yards per attempt, his completion % was down below 62%. Brady wasn't in decline, he didn't have the weapons.

Manning's "decline" is a lot more like Brady's "decline" - it is the change in weapons dictating it. Manning's yards per attempt were a lock to go down. Their 3 WR offense changed to 2 TEs with Clark replacing Stokely in the slot. When you replace a guy who averages 14.5 yards per catch in his career with a guy who averages 12.5, it will impact the QBs numbers. Last years numbers should be worse across the board - he lost a HOF WR and repalced him with a rookie. He's getting sacked more because they made changes on the line.

Football isn't an individual sport. It is why football statistics can't be used like baseball statistics.

Ok, but to be fair, he should have a pretty awesome year this year by those standards, right? Don't they have a solid receiving corps for this year?

 

[NEPatriot]

our team is also dinged. The only question is who has the worst dinged when the season start.

I hope we are healthy in the next few weeks.

 

[dhamz]

Ok, but to be fair, he should have a pretty awesome year this year by those standards, right? Don't they have a solid receiving corps for this year?

I would say that question is assuming good health? If that is the case I have no doubt he will have a big year - 4000+ yatrds and 30 TDs. He is still the 2nd best QB in football by a large margin.

 

[JSn]

I would say that question is assuming good health? If that is the case I have no doubt he will have a big year - 4000+ yatrds and 30 TDs. He is still the 2nd best QB in football by a large margin.

Yeah, definitely assuming that. I have a sneaking suspicion he misses some time though. I just hope he's good for week #9.

 

[Metaphors]

Tom Brady had been trending negatively for 2 years prior to last year. His TDs had decreased 2 consecutive years, same with passer rating, same with yards per attempt, his completion % was down below 62%. Brady wasn't in decline, he didn't have the weapons.

Nope. In 2005, Brady's completion percentage was up and his YPA, interceptions and sacks were steady. In 2006, Brady took a dive across the board. One year does not a trend make.

Manning's "decline" is a lot more like Brady's "decline" - it is the change in weapons dictating it. Manning's yards per attempt were a lock to go down. Their 3 WR offense changed to 2 TEs with Clark replacing Stokely in the slot. When you replace a guy who averages 14.5 yards per catch in his career with a guy who averages 12.5, it will impact the QBs numbers. Last years numbers should be worse across the board - he lost a HOF WR and repalced him with a rookie. He's getting sacked more because they made changes on the line.

Manning's weapons didn't get any better this year. Harrison just turned 36 (Happy Bday to him) and isn't going to get healthier or faster. The other characters are the same and except for Gonzalez probably aren't getting better than they were last year. And the OL should be just as much in flux this year as last.

Manning peaked in 2004 and has been trending down since. Given a completely healthy line and an influx of improved weapons, Manning might reverse the trend and have a jump in productivity. But Moss and Welker ain't walking through that door. And Manning could be lined up behind the worst Colts OL in years if the injury situation doesn't improve.

Football isn't an individual sport. It is why football statistics can't be used like baseball statistics.

Outside of Manning's individual statistics, give me another area where his situation is trending positive? Team health? New additions? Player development? Competition in the division? Overall schedule strength? I'm not predicting anything for Manning in 2008...just saying that he has his work cut out for him if he wants to win the division again and go deep in the playoffs.

He has a shiny new stadium to play in. Maybe that will inspire him to greater heights.