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Strength of Victory
As Florio pointed out on PFT, there is a possibility that even if the Pats win; they could end up with the #4 seed. Here’s my take and hope it’s right. If the Pats win and Cinn loses, Pats are #3, Cinn #4 based on better record 11-5 vs 10-6. If they both win or both lose, they will have the same record, same conference record and the tiebreaker will be strength of victory. Essentially that takes all the teams victories and counts the number of wins those teams have. The team that had the better strength of victory ( more wins by defeated teams) wins the tie breaker.
Right now prior to Monday Night Football, the Patriots lead 65-60.
Pats defeated ( number of wins in parenthesis)
Buff (5), Buf (5), NYJ (8), Miami (7),Jax (7), Tenn (7), Balt (8), Car (7),Atl (8), TB (3)=65
(losses to Miami, NYJ, Den, Indy, N.O. don’t count)
Cinn defeated Balt (8),Balt (8), Pitt (8), Pitt(8), Clev (4), Clev (4), GB (10), Chi (5), Det (2) KC (3).=60
(losses to Den, Hou, Oak, Minn,SD don’t count)
Patriots have a 5 point lead before Sunday. Cinn could still overtake them if several things happen. Because they defeated Clev, Pitt and Balt twice, if any of those teams win, it will give Cinn 2 points. The same could be said for Buffalo (giving the Pats 2 points) since the Patriots defeated them twice.
Looking at the schedule for this Sunday
Chi-Det
Atl-TB
These games are a wash. Cinn beat both Chi and Det so they will get one point regardless. The same is true of Atl-TB since the Patriots defeated both teams. When all is said and done, Cinn and NE each pick up a point leaving them in the same position, regardless of who wins..
Starting tonight, Cinn can pick up a maximum of 10 points and the Patriots could pick up 9 points. For Cinn to overcome the current difference, many things have to break right
MNF Chi (+1 Cinn)---Minn……Cinn picks up one point if Chi wins
Sun. Balt (+2 Cinn, +1 NE)-Oak…Cinn picks up 2 pts, NE 1 pt if Balt wins
JAX (+1 NE)- Clev (+2 Cinn)…….one team is helped by this game
Mia (+1 NE)-Pitt (+2 Cinn)………same as above
Tenn (+1 NE) –Sea ………NE picks up 1 point if Tenn wins
Buf (+2 NE)- Indy………………Buffalo could help the Pats.
Car (+1 NE)…N.O. NE picks up a point if….
GB (+1 Cinn)….Ariz……..Cinn picks up a point if GB wins
Cinn- NYJ (+1 Pats)……only really matters if both teams lose
Chi (+1 Cinn) -Det (+1 Cinn)…………..
Atl (+1 NE)-TB (+1 NE)…………negates above game.
KC (+1 Cinn)-Den………..Cinn benefits if KC drags Denver to 8-8
NE- Hou..........................
Other 4 games don't matter as neither team faced them or defeated them(Phil-Dal, Wash-SD, SF-StL,NYG-Minn)
[FONT="]If they are still tied, it goes to strength of schedule then net points scored versus points allowed. Hope this is right. Essentially if either Jax, Oak or Miami win, it helps the Pats and hurts Cinn in the overall strength of victory..
The reason they would pick up 2 points if that they beat them twice during the season...
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As Florio pointed out on PFT, there is a possibility that even if the Pats win; they could end up with the #4 seed. Here’s my take and hope it’s right. If the Pats win and Cinn loses, Pats are #3, Cinn #4 based on better record 11-5 vs 10-6. If they both win or both lose, they will have the same record, same conference record and the tiebreaker will be strength of victory. Essentially that takes all the teams victories and counts the number of wins those teams have. The team that had the better strength of victory ( more wins by defeated teams) wins the tie breaker.
Right now prior to Monday Night Football, the Patriots lead 65-60.
Pats defeated ( number of wins in parenthesis)
Buff (5), Buf (5), NYJ (8), Miami (7),Jax (7), Tenn (7), Balt (8), Car (7),Atl (8), TB (3)=65
(losses to Miami, NYJ, Den, Indy, N.O. don’t count)
Cinn defeated Balt (8),Balt (8), Pitt (8), Pitt(8), Clev (4), Clev (4), GB (10), Chi (5), Det (2) KC (3).=60
(losses to Den, Hou, Oak, Minn,SD don’t count)
Patriots have a 5 point lead before Sunday. Cinn could still overtake them if several things happen. Because they defeated Clev, Pitt and Balt twice, if any of those teams win, it will give Cinn 2 points. The same could be said for Buffalo (giving the Pats 2 points) since the Patriots defeated them twice.
Looking at the schedule for this Sunday
Chi-Det
Atl-TB
These games are a wash. Cinn beat both Chi and Det so they will get one point regardless. The same is true of Atl-TB since the Patriots defeated both teams. When all is said and done, Cinn and NE each pick up a point leaving them in the same position, regardless of who wins..
Starting tonight, Cinn can pick up a maximum of 10 points and the Patriots could pick up 9 points. For Cinn to overcome the current difference, many things have to break right
MNF Chi (+1 Cinn)---Minn……Cinn picks up one point if Chi wins
Sun. Balt (+2 Cinn, +1 NE)-Oak…Cinn picks up 2 pts, NE 1 pt if Balt wins
JAX (+1 NE)- Clev (+2 Cinn)…….one team is helped by this game
Mia (+1 NE)-Pitt (+2 Cinn)………same as above
Tenn (+1 NE) –Sea ………NE picks up 1 point if Tenn wins
Buf (+2 NE)- Indy………………Buffalo could help the Pats.
Car (+1 NE)…N.O. NE picks up a point if….
GB (+1 Cinn)….Ariz……..Cinn picks up a point if GB wins
Cinn- NYJ (+1 Pats)……only really matters if both teams lose
Chi (+1 Cinn) -Det (+1 Cinn)…………..
Atl (+1 NE)-TB (+1 NE)…………negates above game.
KC (+1 Cinn)-Den………..Cinn benefits if KC drags Denver to 8-8
NE- Hou..........................
Other 4 games don't matter as neither team faced them or defeated them(Phil-Dal, Wash-SD, SF-StL,NYG-Minn)
[FONT="]If they are still tied, it goes to strength of schedule then net points scored versus points allowed. Hope this is right. Essentially if either Jax, Oak or Miami win, it helps the Pats and hurts Cinn in the overall strength of victory..
The reason they would pick up 2 points if that they beat them twice during the season...
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