Talent misevaluation: Why do players slip through the cracks?

[robbomango]

Watched NFL films Top Tens all yesterday LOL... one category was NFL busts. Even with the best info, even when you disregard relatively unimportant stuff, like the sprinting speed of a QB, there are an awful lot of Jeff Georges and Ryan Leafs littering the path. (Also saw Free Agent busts... it was hilarious... the #1 was just "The Washington Redskins," as in anybody the Redskins pay, they overpay, and then they turn off the engine and coast.)

Have to disagree w/I believe RayClay, who said the "I think I can I think I can" types have less washouts than the talented athletes. It just looks that way, because the less athletically talented guys are supposed to fail.

Still, there's nobody -- nobody -- who's the lock he's supposed to be (year in and year out.) For every Matt Stafford (who seems to be getting there,) there's a Joey Harrington, who sometimes -- sometimes -- showed flashes of competency.

Peyton seems to be losing his "place" in Indy... and they look like they'll be relying on Luck.

Soon enough it'll be our turn. I'll be knocking on wood when the day comes, whether Mallet or Hoyer is supposed to end up being the guy, or whether we look to the draft to do better.

NFL busts lol, have to check that out.

Even If all 32 teams got their dream players at every position at the beginning of a given season and all 32 end up with 8-8 records, come february there's only one team left living the dream, 30 that aren't worth mentioning and 1 big loser.

Apparently if there's a legacy to protect avoiding the SB might not be a bad idea.:confused2:

Looks like the only time organizations get to feel as if they're making the right decisions and winning something is during and after the drafting process.

 

[DaBruinz]

As we know T Brown wasn't a combine and with the 7 rd draft would have been an UDFA. Mentioning anyone in the same sentence with Troy, H Ward and E Reed for football IQ gets my attention.

Actually, it's a misconception that Brown would have been a UDFA in a 7 round draft. When Brown was drafted in the 8th round, there were 4 fewer teams. There were only 224 players drafted that year (no compensatory picks). The current 7 round draft typically results in 250-256 players drafted (due to compensatory picks). So, Troy would have been a 6th rounder since he was the 198th player taken.

 

[Calciumee]

Scouts cannot be perfect!

How many scouts knew (or even thought) Edelman could become a punt returner?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Good piece. Thanks.

Living in NYC, I've been thinking a lot about this lately, given the level of Linsanity all around me.

My view has always been that a "Group Think" takes over and people are too afraid to go against it and take a risk. If you make a mistake on, say, a Ryan Leaf, no one says you were dumb, just that the guy didn't have what it took... (complete the sentence) ...to play in the NFL. If you used a top round pick to take the guy who couldn't beat out Drew Hensen to start at Michigan and he flopped, the "Group" would call you a fool.

NFL has long been called a "Follow the Leader," "Group Think" place; this is evidenced in oh so in many ways, including by the fact that the same bunch of writers with the same set of blinders has been picking HOF members for the last 20 or so years.

 

[Fencer]

Actually, it's a misconception that Brown would have been a UDFA in a 7 round draft. When Brown was drafted in the 8th round, there were 4 fewer teams. There were only 224 players drafted that year (no compensatory picks). The current 7 round draft typically results in 250-256 players drafted (due to compensatory picks). So, Troy would have been a 6th rounder since he was the 198th player taken.

Right. Sixth rounder TB was actually a later pick than 8th rounder TB.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Scouts cannot be perfect!

How many scouts knew (or even thought) Edelman could become a punt returner?

It depends how good the scouts are: how is the guy's downfield speed, what about his burst? Does he have good vision seeing holes that are about to open, how well can he ad lib?

 

[Snake Eyes]

Good piece. Thanks.

Living in NYC, I've been thinking a lot about this lately, given the level of Linsanity all around me.

My view has always been that a "Group Think" takes over and people are too afraid to go against it and take a risk. If you make a mistake on, say, a Ryan Leaf, no one says you were dumb, just that the guy didn't have what it took... (complete the sentence) ...to play in the NFL. If you used a top round pick to take the guy who couldn't beat out Drew Hensen to start at Michigan and he flopped, the "Group" would call you a fool.

NFL has long been called a "Follow the Leader," "Group Think" place; this is evidenced in oh so in many ways, including by the fact that the same bunch of writers with the same set of blinders has been picking HOF members for the last 20 or so years.

The numbers show that NFL coaches should go for it more - ESPN The Magazine

 

[WhiZa]

The combine doesn't measure ones heart.

They might be measuring that soon: NFL considering use of echocardiograms to detect heart problems

 

[LasVegasPatsFan]

There are about 625 schools that have a football program. A college team can have up to 125 players or more and the team roster will vary at each college. In fact, there is no rule restriction that limits the number of players that can dress out for an American college football game. Going off of these numbers, there are approx 35,000-75,000 total college players. There are only 32 teams in the league. There are not enough scouts to watch every player. This is why many players slip through the cracks.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I am shocked and surprised that not one strident, draft crazed Patsfan poster has not shouted that the problem is that teams, BB in particular, simply don't follow their genius binkie picks, you know the ones that they start 50 threads about in season saying how right they were and how wrong the Pats were to pick so-and-so.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The numbers show that NFL coaches should go for it more - ESPN The Magazine

Good point. I had actually thought of using the "Fourth and Short" example. Thanks.

 

[patfanken]

Here are my reasons players slip through the cracks.

1. Improvement AFTER they enter the league.

One of the things that is very difficult to measure is the level of improvement a player will achieve AFTER they come into the league. Some may improve 10%, some 50%. A lot depends on the coaches they get and the how "coachable" they are. The scouts weren't wrong about Victor Cruz. There was no way to anticipate his success based on anything he did at UMass. Clearly he has improved since he's come into the league.

2. What system you go to.

A player going to the right "system" can mean all the difference. Just look at Brandon Lloyd. He knocked around the league for 6 years until finding Josh and a system that matched his skills.

Getting into the right system can be critical. Would Jerry Rice have had the same career if the Raiders of the mid 80's drafted him. How well would he have done in the "virtacle" offense the Raiders ran, vs the shorter timing routes of the WC offense. You never know. In the same respect what would have happened to Joe Montana if he'd been asked to throw a deep ball consistently. There are just too many examples of players thriving when their skills are matched to the right "system", and failing when they weren't.

3. Getting to the right team at the right time.

Wes Welker is a perfect example. 2 teams found him replaceable before he got to the Pats.

4. Serendipity - Just plain luck

Lets look at Victor Cruz again - it was probably a good thing for him that he wound up on IR after his first year. And this year he started out on the bubble again, and only got his chance after the Giants had tried everyone else at the position. This wasn't the Giants seeing something that no one else could see. It was more of an example of them reaching into a toilet bowl and coming up with a diamond instead of a handful of crap.

5. Acceleration -

Quickness and acceleration are MUCH more important in the game than mere speed. For the most part, football is played in a 5 yd box. How you accelerate within that box is a great determinant of success. Barry Sanders was a 4.6 RB who had the best acceleration in and out of cuts in his generation. It made him a great RB. Deion Branch had the 2nd best 3 cone time in his combine, which was a much better indicator of his success than his 40 time. And the list of examples could go on and on.

6. Instinct. Ultimately "instinct" is the result of the brain processing what it sees after thousands of repetitions. There is no greater skill than the the ability to "anticipate" what is going to happen after the ball has been snapped. The great ones have it, and it is very difficult to scout it.


Great players are missed all the time. From Brady, to Troy, to Hernandez, or even Woody and Love. Teams are littered with 3rd day picks and UDFAs who are making significant contributions. It goes to one of my core beliefs about the general talent level of the players who enter the NFL. Guys who are good enough to make an 80 man roster are by and large ALL good enough to make an NFL team....physically. After that its more the mental side of the game that determines who actually makes it. The focus, the coachability, and determination to succeed. Then its the luck part to be in the right system for your skills, being on a team that can wait for you to blossom and mature.

And THAT's probably why BB is more concerned with accumulating picks than most. He understands that its a hit and miss proposition. He is comfortable missing as much as he hits.....BECAUSE he is usually playing with 10+ picks, while other are working with 5-7

When I first became a HS HC back in 1980, one of the best pieces of advise I got was from a guy who'd been a HC for a couple of decades. He said, "football is a numbers game" Because, its a "game of attrition" Because its "a marathon and not a sprint" More than any other team sport, The ultimate success of a team is less about the starters or the stars, and more about the team as a whole. To be frank, I really didn't understand how important that advice was, until after I left coaching, but in hindsight, its the key to team building on every level, from HS to the NFL. .

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I am shocked and surprised that not one strident, draft crazed Patsfan poster has not shouted that the problem is that teams, BB in particular, simply don't follow their genius binkie picks, you know the ones that they start 50 threads about in season saying how right they were and how wrong the Pats were to pick so-and-so.

I am becoming increasingly fascinated with the proliferation of what appear to be 18-24 year old draft guru's complete with their own websites, some of who even engineer vacation time to attend bowl games and the like... And a new mantra is emerging from this group that it is waaaaay more difficult to do what they do, generically scout, slot and grade players off game broadcast video for no particular system, than what teams do. LOL

 

[robbomango]

I am becoming increasingly fascinated with the proliferation of what appear to be 18-24 year old draft guru's complete with their own websites, some of who even engineer vacation time to attend bowl games and the like... And a new mantra is emerging from this group that it is waaaaay more difficult to do what they do, generically scout, slot and grade players off game broadcast video for no particular system, than what teams do. LOL

They do all this without coaches tape? lol

NFL Videos: The secrets of coaching tape

Informative video for ppl that haven't seen it.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Here are my reasons players slip through the cracks.

1. Improvement AFTER they enter the league.

2. What system you go to.

3. Getting to the right team at the right time.

4. Serendipity - Just plain luck

5. Acceleration

6. Instinct.

Don't forget some people just try harder than the next guy. The mental toughness to accept criticism without ego getting in the way. Some guys expect their athleticism to get them past any shortcomings. the reality is you are playing the top tier % of college players and the coaches at this level can game plan any single invdividual out of a game. Doesn't always happen that way in college.