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Taking care of the ball, in record style

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Uncle Rico, Dec 14, 2010.

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  1. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Rookie

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    #70 Jersey
    This is a pretty cool Twitter account to follow if you don't already:

    Michael Signora (NFLfootballinfo) on Twitter

    They've had some interesting stats on the Pats' run this season, including this one today:

    "
    New England has not committed a turnover in 5 consecutive games, the longest streak in NFL history
    "

    Keep it up guys.
  2. Ice Cold Bruschi

    Ice Cold Bruschi Rookie

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    Makes me nervous that they're due for a clunker. Hope they get it out of their system before the play offs a la the Dolphins game in 04
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Protecting the Ball

    The Patriots have tied the single season all time NFL record for most games without a turnover, at 9. All 0 are wins.

    In the BB era, the Patriots are 52-6 when not committing a turnover.
    The 58 games with no turnover are the most in the NFL during that time as well.
    Since BB took over in 2000, the Patriots have had the least turnovers in the NFL not counting Houston who joined the league 2 years later.
    The team is also:
    2nd in points scored
    3rd in points allowed
    1st in point differential (by over 200)
    And 1st in turnover differential at +79 (second is +61)

    And of course, first in wins, playoffs wins and SBs.

    It seems like the above numbers have an awful lot to do with the wins.
  4. smg93

    smg93 Rookie

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    Re: Protecting the Ball

    If there was ever any debate on Team of the Decade, I think with those figures, it's clearly case closed.
  5. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Protecting the Ball

    That is a hallmark of BB, this year we are something like +18 in turnover differential.. which imo is one of the most significant stats that correlate to our record.
  6. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Protecting the Ball

    Agreed. Can't score unless you have possession of the football. :D
  7. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    Re: Protecting the Ball

    Belichick is a big history guy. He won't say it, but you know he covets that "Team of the Decade" label. Wait until Pittsburgh comes to Gillette for the AFC championship game. Belichick is going to be one motivated mf'er.
  8. PatsFaninAZ

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    Re: Protecting the Ball

    I think this is perhaps the single most overlooked stat this year and have posted about it a few times. You're exactly right, I think, about the importance of turnover prevention to this team's success.

    Even in a 36-7 game, I think you can go back and look at what a different game it might have been if the tweak the takeaways just a bit, like one one each side.

    The Patriots have twice as many turnovers in their two losses as they have in their eleven wins. Think about that for a second. It's staggering.
  9. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Tom Brady, Patriots Offense Turning Almost Every Turnover Into Points - NESN.com - Jeff Howe

  10. strngplyr

    strngplyr Rookie

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    From ESPN
    Check out these incredible Patriots stats

  11. larryo

    larryo Rookie

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    Seems like coaching has stressed two hands on the ball. This year I've noticed that anytime a ball carrier or reciever has the chance they have been wrapping the ball up and not exposing it. I'm sure that has helped.
  12. buile

    buile PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    > Seems like coaching has stressed two hands on the ball.

    Need Hernandez to do this as soon as there's contact.
  13. sarge

    sarge Rookie

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    Wow,

    I was unaware of that.

    Hopefully they can do that for the entire post season!
  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Numbers don’t lie when talk turns to the Patriots - The Boston Globe

    If the Patriots can continue to take care of the ball they could set an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season.

    To get an idea of how valuable it is to not turn the ball over, consider the team that owns that record - the 2008 Miami Dolphins. That team also tied a record that season with the biggest one-year turnaround in NFL history, going from 1-15 to 11-5. While much of the media attention was focused on their wildcat offense, the real reason for the dramatic improvement was that they didn't turn the ball over.

    Similarly, the 2010 Patriots get a lot of attention for the points the offense scores, but perhaps the biggest reason for the success is that they are fundamentally sound and don't beat themselves - and at the same time are time and time again capitalizing on mistakes of their opponents.
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2010
  15. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We have 20 Int and 7 Fumble recoveries, for a +18 in this department.. for such an important statistic it is hard to find it....
  16. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No kidding. I found them at ESPN, but only by conference.

    2010 NFL Team Givetake Stats - National Football League - ESPN

    They're also sortable too, which helps.
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2010
  17. strngplyr

    strngplyr Rookie

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    New England on pace to ...

    ...break the record for fewest turnovers in a season. 9. The record low is 13 by the Giants and Dolphins both in 2008 I believe. Barring a major collapse and 4+ turnovers against Miami in our own place, New England will own another record this season.

    I'm not a fan of statistics, but this is actually a statistic that matters.

    Tom Brady alone had 12 (8 int, 4 lost fumble) in the amazing 07 regular season for some perspective on how amazing this season is.
  18. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    Only 9 turnovers is incredible. Absolutely incredible.
  19. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    That's a really significant stat. And one was that Hail Mary by Brady at the end of regulation against the Ravens.
  20. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    What's the NFL record for turnover differential?
  21. strngplyr

    strngplyr Rookie

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    Not sure but NE jumped from +20 to +27 after today.
  22. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    The broadcasters said +43 for the 1983 Redskins. I wasn't old enough to witness that, but how is that even possible??? Unreal.
  23. oldrover

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  24. patsinthesnow

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    Holy smokes!
  25. Fencer

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    Pretty awesome.

    Let's not whine about the Hail Mary on the one hand, or dropped INTs on the other. Both are routine parts of football.

    Similarly, the fact that the Patriots were rarely coming from behind and therefore rarely in need of forcing a risky play is just part of the accomplishment.

    Defensive INTs and defensive passing yards allowed are both a bit high because of all the big leads, but that's a separate subject.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2010
  26. robertweathers

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    Best Patriots T/O Diff under BB was 2003 Pats with 17. 07 squad was 16.

    Pretty incredible this team is +27. WOW.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2010
  27. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    This is a smart team. The Patriots aren't killing themselves with mistakes and for the most part Tom Brady has been epic in 2010.
  28. pdangle

    pdangle Rookie

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    Great win! Holy Turnovers. Regression?

    Another dominating performance against the Bills. Nasty. Jacks our TO differential to +27 for the season. Now I know we are killing it in several other more consistent facets of the game (e.g. Pass Yds/Attempt), but I was just wondering what sort of regression we should expect in the TO/game category? Obviously because there is so much variability in this stat - tips, bad throws, deflections, etc.

    If a TO equals about 3 or 4 points in scoring differential, which I have seen bandied about in numerous sabermetric articles, we have about 90 to 105 points scores from such events this year. Our overall point differential after week 15 is +174 pts or +11.6 a game. Not including strength of schedule or other refinements. Assuming, and this is the question posed here, a regression of 25%, 50% or 75% we can expect approximately from 25 to 75 less points, or roughly 2 to 5 points less per game (differential) when luck evens out in games going forward. In addition to all other regressions of course.

    I did find one article on the matter. And it seems to point toward a heavy regression. But this particular study was year to year when we would be better served looking at intra-year with the same personnel (TFB), coaching, game planning, etc. So I would expect somewhat a bit more stability in our case. Check if inclined: linky

    Anyway just some food for thought. Not too much a big deal, even a true +3.5 point strength advantage equals about a 60% win probability. We're looking pretty good at +11.6 (w/home field advantage to boot) even after it gets whittled down a bit. But I think it's something we shouldn't expect as much as every game going forward. So I expect we will get more typical NFL nail biter games in the playoffs. Not that that is any great revelation.

    Anyway Merry Xmas and Season Greetings and such PatsFans. Pumped watching this team this year. Another good W!
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2010
  29. mosi

    mosi Rookie

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  30. PatriotsInGA

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    Re: New England on pace to ...

    One of the real reasons the Pats are the #1 seed is because of the TOs. Both on offense and defense. The offense maybe could have been predicted. I mean come on...we have Tom Brady. The defense is the real surprise. With Warren (Ty that is) and Bodden out at the beginning of the season, we should've been terrible. But other guys like Guyton, McCourty, etc. stepped it up and now we are the best in the AFC.

    The Road to Dallas Begins :rocker:
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