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Statistical breakdown of past drafts by rd-we can see how well BB/SP did

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by jeffbiologist, Feb 26, 2008.

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  1. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    I have been hearing for years that the pats are built through the draft and what experts our guys are at picking players. So I dug up all the past drafts back to 2001 for analysis...Some funny statistics for you. Round by round, regardless of standings or trades, here are the hard numbers:

    Starter % by round(kickers included/specialists not).This I define by a player starting on his own or by injury replacement for at least 8 games in any given year. These numbers are of course only for our draft picks regardless of where they are playing now:

    1st--88%, Not bad considering we are usually at the bottom of the round.
    2nd--50%, I bet you thought this number would be higher
    3rd--40%, this is usually the round where steals are found consistently
    4th--28%, depreciating return
    5th--17%, predictable number
    6th--0%, and they have had like 20 of these,no Bradys
    7th--7%, ya David Givens counts

    In 7 years they draft 60 guys, 35 make the team, but only 17 of them ever start.

    Here is the interesting fact, only Merriweather hasnt started(yet still might), but look at the POSITIONS they draft in the first to make them stick!! DL,DL,DL,OL,TE,TE,RB,S.

    Note-they have drafted 2 TEs and neither has ever made a pro bowl. They drafted a G when they NEEDED one, very rare in the 1st. They drafted a RB when they NEEDED ONE.

    What does all this tell me? They prize D lineman high in the draft. They dont take chances. They only draft ball position(cb/wr/rb/qb/s=SMALL GUYS)when there is a need. There has never been a NEED for LB before, and there has never been a LB drafted higher than 5th rd. There has been need for CB, but never one taken in the 1st. This narrows our choices signficantly. If we dont trade down, I think our choice will be between Gholston and Clady. Best guess Gholston.
    This also tells me that they almost have to make a difference on the team between starters and non-starters at most positions. They draft specifically for depth/backup positions with most being role players,low budget guys,special teams.
    The other thing this tells me is that SP/BB broke these numbers down themselves years ago....and that trading picks for established players is and will continue to be the best way to build a team.

    I am going to try and get some other teams to break their numbers down so we can compare our front offices and see who really are the draft gurus. Of course winning games should play into account, it does, you get a better player with more likelihood to start,right?

    These numbers can be broken down any number of ways, like if you arent a 1st round pick you only have a 16% chance to ever be a starter! Something to think about next time you fall in love with a sleeper!
  2. The 12th Man

    The 12th Man Rookie

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    Good analysis. I have to disagree though on the claim that we never had a need for a LB. In fact, just last year, MLB was a big hole and BB/Pioli didn't draft one until late with Lua. A lot of people (including myself) were a little disappointed that we didn't get a MLB earlier as we thought it was one of the biggest (if not the biggest need last year). I still remember the talk about getting David Harris at #28 before the trade. Wouldn't that have been a great move? Other years before, we had huge LB needs as well and didn't pursue one in the draft either. You know your LB group is weak when you have Monty Beisel and Chad Brown make the roster.
  3. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    I realize there was a missing piece, but on paper they had Thomas,Seau,Bruschi as well as Lua, Alexander and Woods. We lost alot of our flexibility when Colvin went down so ILB may not have been the NEED. Lets face it, the hybrid type players needed to play OLB have to be kinda special for BB. I agree we were in trouble the minute Brown came back, but I think he was counting on one of the younger guys to improve and they didnt.
  4. Patdown93

    Patdown93 Rookie

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    I think you should break down the Colts' drafts in the Dungy/Pioli era as they have been extremely successful at not only staying competitive, but drafting extremely well.

    Although one caveat about these results. As the years go by and the team drafts successfully I'm sure it becomes harder for later round picks to start. Especially a team that wins as much as we do.
  5. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    You know I havent seen any of the other breakdowns, but I bet the percentages cant be that much better on other teams. My guess is that on other teams the 2-4th rounds % is higher, but the same from 5-7th. The better you are the more money players want, the more players you have to replace. Problems occur comparing these statistics because of changes in coaching/front office so I think it only appropriate to compare them to long standing front offices. Miami doesnt count,lol.
  6. Wotan_the_Wanderer

    Wotan_the_Wanderer Rookie

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    Nice work. Just one question though. Is there a reason for having excluded the 2000 draft?
  7. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Good stuff, I did a similar breakdown last year and found the same thing, the Patriots were built on Day 1 (the old day 1).
    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=402542&postcount=1

    When I looked at it last year, 20 of the 22 starters were drafted in rounds 1-4 or were free agents. Brady was from round 6, and I think Koppen was from round 5.

    So projecting to this year we should expect 2 eventual starters and 2-3 backups from the 8 draft picks.

    If you have Excel check out this detailed analysis by Matt Mosley from ESPN
    http://www.divshare.com/download/2986850-12d

    Of interest
    - median draft position of starters was 84

    - the team had 15 current or past probowl players, now I am totally depressed.
    Offense - Brady, Moss, Welker, Light, Koppen, Mankins, Hanson - 6
    Defense - Wilfork, Seymour, Bruschi, Vrabel, Seau, Harrison, Thomas - 7
    Special Teams - Izzo, Hanson - 2
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2008
  8. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    2001
    Arther Love
    Leonard Myers

    2002
    None

    2003
    Kliff Kingsbury

    2004
    None

    2005
    None

    2006
    Jeremy Mincey
    Dan Stevenson
    LeKevin Smith

    2007
    Justin Rogers
    Mike Richardson
    Justise Hairston
    Corey Hilliard


    Now, 2001 was a bad draft all around, with only Seymour and Light really making a name for themselves. However, Kingsbury wasn't a bad gamble in 2003, and it should come as no surprise that not many 6th round players have been able to stick on this team in the past two seasons. Add to that 2 other items of information:

    1.) Hairston and Hilliard were compensatory picks taken at the very bottom of round 6

    2.) Some of these players are either on other team's rosters or on their practice squads.

    3.) In 3 of the 7 seasons mentioned, the team didn't even draft a player in the 6th round

    I just thought the 6th round needed some context.
  9. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    I would challenge that 2001 was a bad draft, they drafted two probowl players at premium positions. It wasn't a mega draft like 2003 (I think we got lulled into thinking that every year could be a 2003).
    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=3200&type=team

    I will look at it more but my guess is that on average each draft creates 1-2 starters and 2 backups. The success / failure rate is about 50%, of course the 2007 draft will destroy any sort of average.
  10. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    Well, if it were me and I had done my homework(SCOUTS), I would have chosen ONE guy in the 4th-5th and traded like (3)6s for him. Especially because in these last 2 years we picked up FAs to play ST. To me it seems like they pretty much gave up and went home handing their piece of paper to the commish on the way out the door.....Who knows, maybe we gave the scouts a year off, let BB choose his ONE guy, and fooled ATL into taking Dimitroff....I look at other teams and see several players after pick 24 making an impact not just on their team but the league. I dont care about our practice squad guys making other teams, thats to be expected. What I think is foolish is that they draft guys from say a coachs school(Hairston) who doesnt even make a dent....like the good ole boys giving away Kraftys cheese. We need cannon fodder, but at least make an effort.
  11. BRiZ

    BRiZ Rookie

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    well when you think about it when BB and Pioli came in we already had good linebackers, Bruschi and McGinest ect all in their prime, and good corners in Law. Out Dline was crap though. So im not sure they prefer to draft dline high we did need an upgrade there.
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2008
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Some picks were compensatory and couldn't be traded. As for the past two seasons argument, you are overlooking the obvious: New England's talent base has been as deep as any team in the league, making it difficult for players to crack the roster. Heck, as I recall, all the players that didn't make the team this season ended up on some other team's roster.
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