Spend $11M - Priorities and Budget

[Miguel]

Am I missing something?

1.) The LTBE/NLTBE adjustment which will cause the Pats to lose cap space. Right now, I have it at around 600,000. It could be higher.
2.) Devin McCourty's escalator - which could increase his salary by $3.2 million.

 

[mgteich]

Freeing Up Cap Money

Can we agree that a transaction that "frees up" $1M in cap room means that the cap increases by $1M if no other transactions are made?

In past years this has been called "the net cap effect".

After all, we want the to know the effect on the cap.

 

[Miguel]

How much room would we have if we cut Amendola?

If Pats cut Amendola, they will lose $2.72m in cap space. Current cap # - $4.575m If Cut, $6.8m.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Are they even doing that though? Its still the same dollar amount just accounted for differently. My understanding was that it was common practice.
If it needs player approval it needs player approval. I'm not going to lose sleep over it.

It's common practice because there's no reason for the player not to do it. They're not giving anything up, and if they are asked to give anything up, the team usually agrees to guarantee some portion of the previously unguaranteed money in exchange.

In this case, there's no reason for Mankins not to accept this type of restructure. If I was him, in fact, I'd probably be looking for a more substantial type of restructure, with the goal of guaranteeing some of the nonguaranteed 2015 money, because as it stands he's likely to be cut after next season, and may not like the market for over-30 guards who have been playing through nagging injuries for the past 5+ years.

 

[Miguel]

I think the main difference between our estimates (excluding which potential targets you list for cuts and/or restructures) is that you aren't including around $4M of carryover from 2013. I don't believe that is included in Miguel's numbers.

The 4 million carryover is listed at
2014 Patriots Salary Cap Picture atriots Salary Cap.

Because the latter page is so long, I only linked to it.

 

[mayoclinic]

The 4 million carryover is listed at
2014 Patriots Salary Cap Picture atriots Salary Cap.

Because the latter page is so long, I only linked to it.

Please clarify for me:

- You indicate that the Pats have about $115M in contract and bonuses for 55 players
- You indicate that the Pats have about $5.6M in dead money
- You indicate that the difference is about $6M assuming a cap of $126.3M

Is the $4M carryover included in either of those numbers? Or would it be factored in later, making a difference about $10M assuming a cap of $126M (and about $12M assuming a cap of $128M)?

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice breakdown from Richard Hill on the possible cuts and restructures, with a shout-out to Miguel:

Eyes on the Patriots Salary Cap - Pats Pulpit

Again, I'm not sure whether the $6M figure listed by Hill (based on Miguel's site) includes the $4M rollover or not.

 

[Miguel]

Or would it be factored in later, making a difference about $10M assuming a cap of $126M (and about $12M assuming a cap of $128M)?

It would be factored in later.

NFL CAP of $126,300,000 + Total adjustments of $570,649 + 2013 carryover of $4,024,801= 2014 adjusted cap number of 130,895,450

Right now, I have the Patriots 2014 cap commitments as $120,639,381

I expect the following to happen which will increase that number

Tendering Danny Aiken at the lowest RFA tender level $894,000
McCourty's escalator $3,200,000

Other possible changes to cap commitments - McCourty may not have increased his 2014 escalator by $3.2 million.

After the three occur, the cap commitment total is $124,733,131.
2014 adjusted cap number of $130,895,450 minus cap commitment of $124,733,131 equals 6,162,319 in cap space with 66 signed or tendered players. This cap space number is before redoing the deals of the players already signed for the 2014 season, releasing any signed players, or signing any UFAs.

 

[mayoclinic]

It would be factored in later.

NFL CAP of $126,300,000 + Total adjustments of $570,649 + 2013 carryover of $4,024,801= 2014 adjusted cap number of 130,895,450

Right now, I have the Patriots 2014 cap commitments as $120,639,381

I expect the following to happen which will increase that number

Tendering Danny Aiken at the lowest RFA tender level $894,000
McCourty's escalator $3,200,000

Other possible changes to cap commitments - McCourty may not have increased his 2014 escalator by $3.2 million.

After the three occur, the cap commitment total is $124,733,131.
2014 adjusted cap number of $130,895,450 minus cap commitment of $124,733,131 equals 6,162,319 in cap space with 66 signed or tendered players. This cap space number is before redoing the deals of the players already signed for the 2014 season, releasing any signed players, or signing any UFAs.

Thank you. That clarifies things considerably. To put it differently, the $6M figure (assuming a #126.3M cap) would be $10M with the rollover, but you expect that $4M to essentially be eaten up by escalators and other factors.

I'm not at all sure that the Pats would tender Aiken. That seems like a lot to overpay for a LS who is eminently replaceable. But whatever happens, happens.

 

[shmessy]

If I'm not mistaken - - If Hernandez gets more than just "implicated" in that double murder before his new contract signing in the fall of 2012 - - then there will be quite alot of cap space coming back for the Pats next year.

 

[resdubwhite]

If I'm not mistaken - - If Hernandez gets more than just "implicated" in that double murder before his new contract signing in the fall of 2012 - - then there will be quite alot of cap space coming back for the Pats next year.

Theres plenty of room in 2015 to play with. If they an figure a way to move 2014 money to 2015 it needs to happen.

 

[mayoclinic]

If I'm not mistaken - - If Hernandez gets more than just "implicated" in that double murder before his new contract signing in the fall of 2012 - - then there will be quite alot of cap space coming back for the Pats next year.

Probably, but who knows if or when it will happen. The chance of it affecting 2014 is asymptotic to 0.

 

[Miguel]

Thank you. That clarifies things considerably. To put it differently, the $6M figure (assuming a #126.3M cap) would be $10M with the rollover, but you expect that $4M to essentially be eaten up by escalators and other factors.

I'm not at all sure that the Pats would tender Aiken. That seems like a lot to overpay for a LS who is eminently replaceable. But whatever happens, happens.

To further clarify, based on what I know now, I expect that the Patriots' 2014 adjusted cap number to be $130M - mainly because of the $4 million carryover.

 

[mayoclinic]

To further clarify, based on what I know now, I expect that the Patriots' 2014 adjusted cap number to be $130M - mainly because of the $4 million carryover.

That's assuming a league cap of $126.2M, I presume. I've heard suggestions that it may end up being a bit higher.

 

[mayoclinic]

Our current cap room is about what we need later in the season for rookies, replacement players, Player 52, Player 53 and for a cushion for incentives. On a net basis, we need to free up cap money in order to use cap money.

Depending on how FA and the draft go, the Pats could be in a position to cut the following players after May 8:

- Steve Gregory, S. $2.3M cap savings.
- Tommy Kelly, DT. $1.7M cap savings.
- Dan Connolly, OL. $2.5M cap savings.

All 3 guys are in contract years and on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn't cut any of them now, but depending on how things go, they could become expendable. Cutting all 3 would free up $6.5M in cap savings, which would take care of the rookies, PS, and contingency funds.

Just something to think about.

 

[50-yard-line]

Depending on how FA and the draft go, the Pats could be in a position to cut the following players after May 8:

- Steve Gregory, S. $2.3M cap savings.
- Tommy Kelly, DT. $1.7M cap savings.
- Dan Connolly, OL. $2.5M cap savings.

All 3 guys are in contract years and on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn't cut any of them now, but depending on how things go, they could become expendable. Cutting all 3 would free up $6.5M in cap savings, which would take care of the rookies, PS, and contingency funds.

Just something to think about.

Well, I think the odds of Wilfork coming back to form are pretty slim, and given that, if you're going to cut Tommy Kelly (if he can play), then you're going to need a serious chunk of change just to fill in that DT role.

Do you really want to go into next year with Siliga, Jones, Vellano and Armstead as your interior DLine?

 

[mayoclinic]

Well, I think the odds of Wilfork coming back to form are pretty slim, and given that, if you're going to cut Tommy Kelly (if he can play), then you're going to need a serious chunk of change just to fill in that DT role.

Do you really want to go into next year with Siliga, Jones, Vellano and Armstead as your interior DLine?

Of course not. That's idiocy, and exactly why I said you would do anything until after FA and the draft, when you had a better idea of what else you had to work with. Unless you had considerably more than we do now, we wouldn't cut Kelly.

My personal "plan" would be to cut Wilfork, sign Linval Joseph, and keep Kelly through the draft. If we don't add a significant rookie DT then we have Joseph, Kelly, Siliga, Jones and Armstead. Good group. If a prospect like Timmy Jernigan or Ra'Shede Hageman falls to us, then Kelly becomes expendable. If you don't sign a FA, then you draft a rookie high and keep Kelly, and more of the savings from cutting Wilfork is available. Dealer's choice.

Where you lose big, IMO, is to continue to put major money into Wilfork - and even a restructured deal still involves significant money, and restructuring pushes the cost out to future years - and find out that he can't play, or can't play with any effectiveness. Then you've screwed yourself both with cap space and with missed opportunities to find replacement players. That's the most likely scenario that leaves you with just Siliga, Jones, Armstead and Vellano.

 

[mgteich]

Cutting three starters to save $6.5M is indeed something to think about. Many agree with you.

Personally, I would reject such an approach. Extensions for the three is a better strategy to me. Having some veterans who are over 30 is OK. We have lots and lots of kids. Hopefully, kids can play better than these guys. You and others would consider it a failure to have these three as backups. For me, it would a huge success.

BTW, we will look for veteran upgrades. I have a different view of draftees than you do. I am fine with picking draftees to replace veteran starters. However, I think having a veteran backup makes sense, at least for a year.

Depending on how FA and the draft go, the Pats could be in a position to cut the following players after May 8:

- Steve Gregory, S. $2.3M cap savings.
- Tommy Kelly, DT. $1.7M cap savings.
- Dan Connolly, OL. $2.5M cap savings.

All 3 guys are in contract years and on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn't cut any of them now, but depending on how things go, they could become expendable. Cutting all 3 would free up $6.5M in cap savings, which would take care of the rookies, PS, and contingency funds.

Just something to think about.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm merely floating it is an option, one of several. Extensions are a distinct possibility. My main point was that I wouldn't necessarily make any decisions about what to do with these three guys until the dust has settled a bit.

Cutting three starters to save $6.5M is indeed something to think about. Many agree with you.

Personally, I would reject such an approach. Extensions for the three is a better strategy to me. Having some veterans who are over 30 is OK. We have lots and lots of kids. Hopefully, kids can play better than these guys. You and others would consider it a failure to have these three as backups. For me, it would a huge success.

BTW, we will look for veteran upgrades. I have a different view of draftees than you do. I am fine with picking draftees to replace veteran starters. However, I think having a veteran backup makes sense, at least for a year.

 

[mgteich]

Thank you for clarifying.

I'm merely floating it is an option, one of several. Extensions are a distinct possibility. My main point was that I wouldn't necessarily make any decisions about what to do with these three guys until the dust has settled a bit.