Spend $11M - Priorities and Budget

[mgteich]

Our current cap room is about what we need later in the season for rookies, replacement players, Player 52, Player 53 and for a cushion for incentives. On a net basis, we need to free up cap money in order to use cap money.
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Miguel has given us the numbers. We all will speculate for months. If we make the obvious moves, we free up about $11M or so in net cap room (cut Sopoaga, cut A. Wilson, restructure Wilfork, restructure Mankins, extend Gostkowski and/or McCourty).
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A BUDGET
Minor re-signs - $3M
Minor/JAG free agent acquisitions - $2M
major re-signs - $6M
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OTHER FREE AGENTS
We start with zero.
While we could free up more money, each cut requires replacement.
These players include Kelly, Gregory, and Connolly.
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TIMING
Free agency starts on March 11th. We need to be under the cap by 4 PM on that date.

 

[old 55]

I question how difficult it will be to redo the Mankins deal. He was very stubborn when the existing contract was signed and many teams need O line help. I can see him refusing to and forcing his release or trade.
I think that Big Vince will be easier to work with as long as the Pats don't play hardball too badly.

 

[mayoclinic]

Why do you use $11M as a figure?

According to Miguel the Pats currently have $120,308,131 on the books for 2014 (55 players totalling $114,624,410 plus $5,683,721 in dead money). Ian Rappoport has reported a preliminary figure for the 2014 cap at $126.3M, but several capologists have suggested it may be a bit higher, around $128M. So the Pats will have roughly $6-8M to play with. They will probably carry over around $4M from this year, which would give them $10-12M before restructurings or cuts, which could free up as much as $15M or so depending on what the Pats decide to do:

- Vince Wilfork: $7.5M
- Dan Connolly: $2.5M
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2M
- Tommy Kelly: $1.75M
- Adrian Wilson: $0.7M

Plus possible restructurings/extensions for Gostkowski, Slater and Gregory.

Am I missing something?

 

[Deus Irae]

Consider A. Wilson gone. That frees up $1.16m.

Consider Sopoaga gone. The frees up another $2.5m.

Cut Gregory. That frees up another $2.35m.

That frees up about $6m right there, which is a decent starting point.

» Over the Cap- New England Patriots 2014 Salary Cap and Contracts

 

[resdubwhite]

Why do you use $11M as a figure?

According to Miguel the Pats currently have $120,308,131 on the books for 2014 (55 players totalling $114,624,410 plus $5,683,721 in dead money). Ian Rappoport has reported a preliminary figure for the 2014 cap at $126.3M, but several capologists have suggested it may be a bit higher, around $128M. So the Pats will have roughly $6-8M to play with. They will probably carry over around $4M from this year, which would give them $10-12M before restructurings or cuts, which could free up as much as $15M or so depending on what the Pats decide to do:

- Vince Wilfork: $7.5M
- Dan Connolly: $2.5M
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2M
- Tommy Kelly: $1.75M
- Adrian Wilson: $0.7M

Plus possible restructurings/extensions for Gostkowski, Slater and Gregory.

Am I missing something?

This is my read of it to.

so say its 126. We have 5.5 in spend. plus 4 carry over. its very easy to argue the team generates another 8 million at least. that does give the team some leverage (crosses fingers these numbers are right.) That's a creative 10 million left after deals for Talib and Edelman. one luxury free agent and off to the draft we go.

 

[Ring 6]

I question how difficult it will be to redo the Mankins deal. He was very stubborn when the existing contract was signed and many teams need O line help. I can see him refusing to and forcing his release or trade.
I think that Big Vince will be easier to work with as long as the Pats don't play hardball too badly.

There is no reason for Mankins to be unwilling to convert a part of his salary to signing bonus.

 

[resdubwhite]

There is no reason for Mankins to be unwilling to convert a part of his salary to signing bonus.

Does he even have a say in the matter if the team chooses to do it they just can right? He still gets the same money. Team just accounts for a portion of it in the final two years. Or something like that.

 

[Deus Irae]

Does he even have a say in the matter if the team chooses to do it they just can right? He still gets the same money. Team just accounts for a portion of it in the final two years. Or something like that.

The team cannot unilaterally change the terms of the contract.

 

[resdubwhite]

The team cannot unilaterally change the terms of the contract.

Are they even doing that though? Its still the same dollar amount just accounted for differently. My understanding was that it was common practice.
If it needs player approval it needs player approval. I'm not going to lose sleep over it.

 

[SalemPats]

We need to re-sign Edelman, who will probably go for around 5-6 million a year. Probably defer that a bit and make the contract guaranteed for a longer period.

We'll need to add a WR and perhaps add a safety (I wouldn't be so quick to cut Wilson).

How much room would we have if we cut Amendola?

 

[Marinlik]

We need to re-sign Edelman, who will probably go for around 5-6 million a year. Probably defer that a bit and make the contract guaranteed for a longer period.

We'll need to add a WR and perhaps add a safety (I wouldn't be so quick to cut Wilson).

How much room would we have if we cut Amendola?

If I understand it correctly we gain nothing by releasing Amendola this year.

I think that we need to add a receiver that can play on the outside. Someone big. Yes I know that we have Dobson and Thompkins. But I think that we need a veteran there. It doens't have to be a top dollar guy. But some decent player so we don't get locked down to only slot guys barring an injury.

I also think that we should release Wilfork and Sopoaga. I love Vince. But he wasn't very good before his injury this year, and he is simply demanding too much money.

 

[SalemPats]

If I understand it correctly we gain nothing by releasing Amendola this year.

I think that we need to add a receiver that can play on the outside. Someone big. Yes I know that we have Dobson and Thompkins. But I think that we need a veteran there. It doens't have to be a top dollar guy. But some decent player so we don't get locked down to only slot guys barring an injury.

I also think that we should release Wilfork and Sopoaga. I love Vince. But he wasn't very good before his injury this year, and he is simply demanding too much money.

Look at the rushing yards before contact with Vince in the lineup and with Vince out of the lineup. It's impossible to find a nose tackle in this league. He is a beast, probably the best in the game and a future HOF. We need him next year

 

[mgteich]

You inflate your number by not considering the net cap effect. Add back about $1.5M for the players that replace these on the top 51.

Consider A. Wilson gone. That frees up $1.16m.

Consider Sopoaga gone. The frees up another $2.5m.

Cut Gregory. That frees up another $2.35m.

That frees up about $6m right there, which is a decent starting point.

» Over the Cap- New England Patriots 2014 Salary Cap and Contracts

 

[Deus Irae]

You inflate your number by not considering the net cap effect. Add back about $1.5M for the players that replace these on the top 51.

I'm not inflating any number. You're making a secondary point, which would only matter if we were finished with the exercise at that point.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Look at the rushing yards before contact with Vince in the lineup and with Vince out of the lineup. It's impossible to find a nose tackle in this league. He is a beast, probably the best in the game and a future HOF. We need him next year

What are you talking about....Wilfork was pedestrian at best this past year and at times bad. He was abused by 2nd stringer Ducasse of the Jets.

Vince is not a beast anymore. This is not 2008. He will be 33 years old next season coming off a major injury.

Time to move on and save the $7.5 million in cap money for much better uses.

 

[mgteich]

You ignore monies needed at the end of the year for rookies, Player 52, Player 53, Practice Squad, replacements for those on IR, and a cushion for incentives. You have also not counted the likelihood that McCourty has reached on of his incentives.

Just look at Miguel's numbers before restructures and cuts and then see his estimate of cap monies that will be need later. You will find that the figures are $6.16M and $7.8M. The amount needed later will be reduced some becasuse low priced players will make the 53 man squad, reducing the total cap costs. If one counts this effect at a credit of $1.54M, this has even with the board before cuts and restructures.

You think that we have $10M-$12M to spend before cuts and restructures. I have us at zero.

I agree that there is lots of cap room to be had through cuts and restructures. I just don't start with the $10M-12M cushion that you do.

Why do you use $11M as a figure?

According to Miguel the Pats currently have $120,308,131 on the books for 2014 (55 players totalling $114,624,410 plus $5,683,721 in dead money). Ian Rappoport has reported a preliminary figure for the 2014 cap at $126.3M, but several capologists have suggested it may be a bit higher, around $128M. So the Pats will have roughly $6-8M to play with. They will probably carry over around $4M from this year, which would give them $10-12M before restructurings or cuts, which could free up as much as $15M or so depending on what the Pats decide to do:

- Vince Wilfork: $7.5M
- Dan Connolly: $2.5M
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2M
- Tommy Kelly: $1.75M
- Adrian Wilson: $0.7M

Plus possible restructurings/extensions for Gostkowski, Slater and Gregory.

Am I missing something?

 

[mgteich]

Let me be clearer using tou language. Let us say we have $5M of cap room at the beginning of the day. We have transactions during the day that frees up cap room. I expect to be able to add the amount freed up to get the new balance. That is not true in your case.

The cuts that you suggest are certainly high on most lists. I'm fine with cutting Gregory if you get an equal or better safety for the money. I just don't think that this is likely or that the patriots would do so.

I'm not inflating any number. You're making a secondary point, which would only matter if we were finished with the exercise at that point.

 

[mayoclinic]

I haven't ignored any of that stuff. I've just listed roughly how much money we will have to work with. How that is used is another matter altogether that I didn't discuss at all. Obviously the rookie pool, PS, and a cushion for contingency would have to be factored in.

Say that the cap is $128M (high estimate) and we are at $120M plus $4M carryover with Miguel's estimate of $8M (high estimate). That leaves us around $4M plus another $12-16M to work with for free agency, or $15-20M, depending on restructurings or cuts, depending on what the team decides.

I think the main difference between our estimates (excluding which potential targets you list for cuts and/or restructures) is that you aren't including around $4M of carryover from 2013. I don't believe that is included in Miguel's numbers. If it is, then I stand corrected. That would take your $11M to $15M, which is about the low end of my estimate of what we'd have to spend on free agency (our own and external) depending on which contracts the Pats choose to address in the offseason.

You ignore monies needed at the end of the year for rookies, Player 52, Player 53, Practice Squad, replacements for those on IR, and a cushion for incentives. You have also not counted the likelihood that McCourty has reached on of his incentives.

Just look at Miguel's numbers before restructures and cuts and then see his estimate of cap monies that will be need later. You will find that the figures are $6.16M and $7.8M. The amount needed later will be reduced some becasuse low priced players will make the 53 man squad, reducing the total cap costs. If one counts this effect at a credit of $1.54M, this has even with the board before cuts and restructures.

You think that we have $10M-$12M to spend before cuts and restructures. I have us at zero.

I agree that there is lots of cap room to be had through cuts and restructures. I just don't start with the $10M-12M cushion that you do.

 

[Deus Irae]

You are correct. I just think that it is misleading to cut a $500K player and say that we have saved $500K in cap room when we have saved no cap room at all.

The cuts that you suggest are certainly high on most lists. I'm fine with cutting Gregory if you get an equal or better safety for the money. I just don't think that this is likely or that the patriots would do so.

But I didn't make any claim about saving cap room. I noted that the cuts would free up about $6m, which is correct. You're jumping way too far ahead in the exercise.

As for Gregory, you may be right. BB's been getting that position wrong for a long time. Other than lucking into McCourty because of DmC's issues at CB, he's not gotten it right at safety since 2005 or 2007 (Depending on your feelings about Meriweather), so there's really nothing but hoping that BB finally smartens up about the position behind my cutting of Gregory. FTR, if Gregory wants to take a pay cut so that's he's paid commensurate with an S4 level veteran player, I'm fine with that, if it means that T. Wilson is out the door instead. That would still result in something like $1.5m-$2m coming loose. I just don't assume Gregory would accept the haircut.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, you are taking everything into account. Under your way of thinking, you can always be recalling that you need $7M-$8M for the end of the year. For me, it is much easier to understand that I cannot spend this money unless I am willing to cut $7M-$8M of players at the end. As my title suggested, I am budgeting our cap money. I look forward to what our expenses are and act accordingly.

Making believe that we have an extra $10M just gets teams into trouble. I say $10M because we need to leave at least a couple of million for minor free agency signings after the draft.

I haven't ignored any of that stuff. I've just listed roughly how much money we will have to work with. How that is used is another matter altogether that I didn't discuss at all. Obviously the rookie pool, PS, and a cushion for contingency would have to be factored in.

Say that the cap is $128M (high estimate) and we are at $120M plus $4M carryover with Miguel's estimate of $8M (high estimate). That leaves us around $4M plus another $12-16M to work with for free agency, or $16-20M, depending on restructurings or cuts, depending on what the team decides.