Sign the Beast XVI -- Big Vince Wilfork!

[RayClay]

Drafted D-line in the first round last year. Released an aging vet with declining performance this year. It's a strong draft for DT, so I would expect to see the Pats go to the well again.

That will be an upgrade on the pass rush. You couldn't possibly be saying Easley is a similar type player to Wilfork. I'm looking forward to seeing him play, but he's closer to a Patriots LB in size and similar, but much better we hope, to a mike wright or Chris Jones in role.

 

[RayClay]

2015 First Round
Patriots on the clock
Vince 34 years old still on the board .. (
You have to select a DT.
For the game to have fun , let's assume that Wilfork will remain the same player who was last year in the next five years, but he will be expensive - why 5 years? that is the contract time of a player who was chosen in the first round.
Who would you choose ? I will go with a rookie.
And you?

What in the world does this mean?

 

[RayClay]

Hes not a 1st round talent anymore. I'd pick someone else at 32.

Drafted D-line in the first round last year. Released an aging vet with declining performance this year. It's a strong draft for DT, so I would expect to see the Pats go to the well again.

It's a strong draft for DLine? Not from everything i read. It's a strong draft for DLine depth, but i see only 2 guys with top twenty grades and that's a weak DT draft.

Depth is good, though we have depth. Unless they let us play 12 men on defense, two depth players don't replace one dominant big player.

we're in a transition anyway, but we need to consider what a couple years of looking like the colts run D will do to the rest of our defense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It's a strong draft for DLine? Not from everything i read. It's a strong draft for DLine depth, but i see only 2 guys with top twenty grades and that's a weak DT draft.

Depth is good, though we have depth. Unless they let us play 12 men on defense, two depth players don't replace one dominant big player.

we're in a transition anyway, but we need to consider what a couple years of looking like the colts run D will do to the rest of our defense.

We can all agree the draft is a crapshoot but according to http://walterfootball.com/draft2015DT.php there are ~7 players that have 1st/2nd round grades.

 

[hwc]

That will be an upgrade on the pass rush. You couldn't possibly be saying Easley is a similar type player to Wilfork. I'm looking forward to seeing him play, but he's closer to a Patriots LB in size and similar, but much better we hope, to a mike wright or Chris Jones in role.

From the type of front-7 players that Belichick has been drafting/signing, I can only conclude that he is implementing a plan to transition from "big slow" to "athletic quick". That makes perfect since in a pass happy league where over 75% of the defensive snaps are taken in nickle or dime packages. The importance of the 400 pound immovable object NT appears to have been downgraded in the new Belichick defense.

I do not see Easley as a replacement for Wilfork. I see him as a glaring indication of a shift in DL priorities for Bill Belichick.

The Pats base defense is now 2 D-line, 2 LB, 5 DB, 2 edge pass rusher/contain ends (whether you call them LBs or DEs doesn't really matter).

If Bill Belichick's evolving defensive strategy is correct (and I certainly defer to the hoody), then continuing to implement his new defense should result in an upgrade. Part of that evolution is replacing players suited to the old defense with young players suited to the new defense.

Does this mean that Belichick doesn't want a big fatty NT on the roster? Perhaps not. I'm sure that's a skill set he would still like to deploy in certain situations. But, the question is whether or not the big fatty NT is still the foundation building block of the D line? Or a limited snaps role player in short yardage run packages?

 

[hwc]

It's a strong draft for DLine? Not from everything i read. It's a strong draft for DLine depth, but i see only 2 guys with top twenty grades and that's a weak DT draft.

The number of guys with "top 20 grades" (whatever that means) is pretty much irrelevant to a team drafting at #32.

Even if the hoody wants to draft an ol' school big fatty NT (and I don't know that he does), it's not necessarily a position that he would go to in the first round.

And, speaking of "top 20 grades", where are you seeing the Pats draft board grades? If I've learned anything as a Pats fan all these years, the "grades" from the "draft gurus" in the media are less than useless in predicting the Pats draft. Year after year, any overlap between the two lists is purely coincidental. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

It's why the Andy Harts of the world give themselves heart palpitations on draft day every year.

I am pretty confident that the hoody will find a couple of guys on the o-line and d-line that he thinks can develop to play some role on the Pats roster, as he did with Stork, Flemming, and Easley last year.

 

[Ivan]

We can all agree the draft is a crapshoot but according to http://walterfootball.com/draft2015DT.php there are ~7 players that have 1st/2nd round grades.

This is much closer to the truth, however if they don't take one early they will be looking at projects. Hopefully Goldman or Brown fall to their pick, we'll see?

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

What in the world does this mean?

Its a game dont you get it?
If you´re on the clock and Wilfork is there - he is 34 years old, expensive, great teammate ... - and guys like: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas, Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State, Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma are there. Who would you choose ? I'd pick one of those guys. And you?

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

"In the first round" means a lot more for crap teams. You're picking at #32. You're also postulating a Pats war room that ever thinks "You have to go...(position)." Their strategy has been draft for value and disguise the weaknesses.

Replacing VW with a rookie seems like an unlikely solution. VW being worth the $8M cap hit was a non-starter. Bringing him back cheap might make more sense to the team than to VW. We can hope... I mean, that's the definition of off-season hope in off-seasons like this... "I hope guys will sign where the business dynamics say they shouldn't." I think somebody gives VW $5M at least on a one year deal, especially if they're long on cap dollars and short on run D.

What seems most likely is that we have to deal with a downgrade at DT/NT through free agency, at least until/unless a homegrown product springs out of a few shots in the draft crapshoot.

Even if VW comes back at a discount, we eventually face the dilemma. This is just a matter of a great player not lasting forever... and the business posing the question "Better to do it a year early or a year late?"

This is not completely true . I also think it's always best to choose the best player available. But if you have a clear need for a position(DT), you at least the try to pick the best talent that adress your need on that position (DT), even if a better player ( like a QB) is still there. If it were true someone would consider choosing a CB for the Patriots in the first round if Revis resign with the Patriots ? Even if the best CB is there?
I know that the draft is a lottery . But with the best talent becomes a gamble with less risk. Bring a first-round guy to the place of Wilfork , will be an upgrade IMO .

 

[mgteich]

What in the world does this mean?

It means that the poster thinks that we should be able to drafter a DT at 32 who will be as good as Wilfork was last year from the start and through the next five years.

This kind of analysis shows a remarkable misunderstanding of the value of Pick 32, how many fail, how many succeed, and how few are as good as Wilfork.

Obviously, there are a lot of success stories at Pick 32 (as there are for 6th rounders). EXPECTING to replace Wilfork 2014 production with a 2015 rookie is really poor analysis, at least IMO.

 

[mgteich]

This is much closer to the truth, however if they don't take one early they will be looking at projects. Hopefully Goldman or Brown fall to their pick, we'll see?

I certainly agree.

After all, most of thought that DT is most likely, even if Wilfork is on the 2015 roster. We need a 2015 starter.

That conclusion does NOT translate to a belief that the rookie would be SO GOOD, that he would play over 70% of the reps in his rookie year at the level that Wilfork did, with Branch, Jones, Easley and Siliga on the 53.

 

[mgteich]

BTW, if Belichick believed as the OP suggests, then he shouldn't bother to sign a DT in free agency. After all, we will get our starter at 32 in the draft.

 

[hwc]

It means that the poster thinks that we should be able to drafter a DT at 32 who will be as good as Wilfork was last year from the start and through the next five years.

Last year is irrelevant. We are on to Cincinnati, so to speak.

The only issue that is relevant is how you value Wilfork over the next four years vs what else you could get. It is unlikely that Wilfork at ages 34 to 38 and increasingly overweight would produce more than a vet minimum JAG.

Maybe more than that in 2015, but declining rapidly. As it was, the Pats were the worst team in the NFL on short yardage run downs. You don't pay an $8.5 million NT for that production. If you replace Wilfork with a vet minimum JAG fatty NT, you probably lose a little bit at NT in 2015, but break even or improve the team after that. If you improve the team elsewhere (like not losing Collins to free agency), you are ahead of the game. If you find a NT who is better than a vet min. JAG, you improve the team across the board.

 

[Patriots1364life]

Pot roast fits nicely in new england but impossible.

 

[hwc]

BTW, if Belichick believed as the OP suggests, then he shouldn't bother to sign a DT in free agency. After all, we will get our starter at 32 in the draft.

Cheap one-year rentals on veteran big fatty DTs are usually available after the glamor days of free agency, even as late as training camp cuts. Heck, we got Branch last year after the season started, if I recall. We aren't looking for Ndamukong Suh....

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

I certainly agree.

After all, most of thought that DT is most likely, even if Wilfork is on the 2015 roster. We need a 2015 starter.

That conclusion does NOT translate to a belief that the rookie would be SO GOOD, that he would play over 70% of the reps in his rookie year at the level that Wilfork did, with Branch, Jones, Easley and Siliga on the 53.

Stork was great IMO. So its possible...

 

[mgteich]

Last year is irrelevant. We are on to Cincinnati, so to speak.

If you find a NT who is better than a vet min. JAG, you improve the team across the board.

Branch is better than a vet minimum JAG, or least the equivalent.

 

[hwc]

Branch is better than a vet minimum JAG, or least the equivalent.

I would think so.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is much closer to the truth, however if they don't take one early they will be looking at projects. Hopefully Goldman or Brown fall to their pick, we'll see?

Yea who knows. With Sig, Chris Jones, hopefully Branch, Easley and rookie DT they'll be ok. Maybe one of the FA DTs (VW?) can be had for a reasonable 1 year deal for ~$2-$3m

I'd be psyched if those rooks fell to the Pats.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

We're looking at the difference between great and very good, looking at Wilfork's career ups and downs. I think he will play very well in 2015, somewhere - possibly (even now) in NE. I think he will decline to good. He will decline to JAG, if still playing, at some point, but it is not known when.

I disagree that his increasing age will necessarily equate to increasing weight.

I think it will be very difficult to keep VW (but it does depend on his desire to play for the Pats, as we all dream, on the cheap, relatively speaking.)

Similarly it will be very difficult to replace VW. We will be in terra incognita, and we will deal with that. We will make best use of the DTs we have on the field. If we don't add one in FA, and Vince walks, it will be a weakness going into '15. Expecting a rookie bonanza is a pretty risky road, on a first-year basis. We'll simply be swapping out our former secondary problems for problems at the D-Line.

My best guess is an affordable FA replacement. I do not think a 1st round pick at DT is inevitable. While it is true that "tie goes to the position of need" in NE's drafts, I think they're predicated on value. So if 4 DTs go in the first-round and there is a big drop-off (as the Pats evaluate, not some draft guru) between their 4th favorite and 5th favorite, and for some reason a ****-hot corner (by their evaluation) is on the board, I think they pick the CB.

Once again this is a pronounced tendency over time. Of course need is also present in Patriot drafts but I think that more than other teams, the card stacks are merged into one "value" stack, to use an anachronistic metaphor.