Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Spergon Wynn, Feb 17, 2013.
Sure about that? After many teams would be willing to overpay the **** out of him?
I just told you that they have different skillsets, but yes..they can be compared as all-around receivers who produce for their team.
Fitzgerald and Johnson are better deep threats, but those deep threats can disappear at times and they haven't led their teams to anywhere near the same kind of consistent success that Welker has. When you are part of a top 4 offense on two separate occasions, you don't think that brings value? What are Fitz and Johnson doing to help their teams to succeed every year that is more than what Welker does here?
When you produce on a consistent basis and can go across the middle time and time again getting lit up and blasted just about every play, you don't consider that "just as good?"
Why? Because Johnson and Fitzgerald can make a couple of grabs that lead to a 30-40 yd total whereas it may take Welker another couple of catches to get to the same total? That doesn't necessarily make them "better" to their teams does it?
BOTH of those receivers are getting paid like franchise QB's who have led their team to SB appearances, so who is getting the better value and better production? Is it really even that close?
Wes Welker is the receiver who has produced not only more catches (by far), but more YAC's, more first downs, and adds more value to the other players around him by drawing coverage. Wes Welker is the one who allows this offense to click like it does. He is potentially the player who has allowed Brady to have the quickest delivery time in the entire NFL at an age where he is supposedly "faltering" quickly and trending downward. It's Welker who adds to the success of the offensive line in my opinion. It is Welker who is probably the toughest WR in the game, possibly the history of the game when you compare them all pound for pound.
Welker's agent claimed last year that they were "about 6 million apart in guaranteed money." I personally would make up that gap very quickly, or at the very least meet them up to 4-5 million more on that guaranteed deal to keep him here. I would show very good faith by offering him something respectable to stay, but since I don't have 1/100th of the football smarts and experience of our HC all I can do is hope that they make the right decision that is best for the team. I'd just have a hard time believing that we can continue to progress by changing up the main cog of the offense outside of Brady by doing it. I would much rather build off of what is there, as I believe that Welker can continue to put up very comparable numbers for another 2-3 years.
From 2007 to 2012:
*Note - keep in mind the QBs throwing Calvin the ball. We're talking Kitna, Hill, Orvlosky, two years of Stafford season ending surgery... Welker has had Brady and one year of Cassel.*
Welker has had 37 TDs.
Johnson has had 54 TDs.
Welker has had 7459 Rec. Yds.
Johnson has had 7836 Rec. Yds.
Welker has had 672 receptions.
Johnson has had 488 receptions.
Yes, it has required Welker 184 more receptions to get 377 less yards.
Their production is not comparable. Imagine if Johnson had played with a respectable QB for half his career.
And to your point of Welker being the toughest receiver in the game, why did he drop that wide open third down pass in the AFCCG? Pitta got just as jacked up as Mayo and caught a TD directly after getting blasted. Welker gets jacked up, drops yet another key pass. Butterfingers was hearing footsteps.
Also, Johnson and Fitzgerald disappear no more than Welker. Once again, I have to ask if you have even watched them play? Johnson especially goes over the middle all the time. He's fearless. It's not like they just bomb it to him every single play, he runs every route.
There is zero chance of Welker coming back, but there's nothing wrong with dreaming.
I would say the chances of Welker staying here are somewhere between 0 and 100%.
I wouldn't be confident of saying he's either 100% or 0% staying here. I'd love it if he re-upped. But we'll see.
It also required Detroit to pay Calvin twice as much over the same time frame to get 377 more yards. Welker was also one of 2-3 targets over most of that time span including Moss in 2007 and two emerging TE's in 2010-2012. Of course part of that was due to the fact that NE could afford them... Welker averaged $4.5M per over that time span vs. $9M per for Calvin so there is the value of production in relation to cost. A big part of Detroits problem for a long time has been overpaying talent relative to the value of it's production. Their top 3 talents currently take up $50M in cap space or 41% of their total cap. Why fans persist in calling for this team to adopt that cap management and roster construction model eludes me. Must be a fantasy football thing.
Calvin has had some big drops, just not in big games because he hasn't played in any...
Calvin may have had some big drops, but who wouldn't take him, Larry Fitzgerald or Percy Harvin on the Pats in a heartbeat?
Imagine one of those guys with Tom....
I think there's a chance Wes comes back. But it's going to be on Bill's terms. We'll learn soon how important it is for Wes to get a ring in NE and stay with Tom. I'm guessing that getting top dollar will overtake those motivations and we'll lose Wes. We shall see.
To compare of Welker to other "outside" WR's like CJ or Boldin, etc, by yds, TD's or catches makes no sense because those guys have a far different set of skills than Welker. Welker uses his quickness and brain to get separation. The big difference between him and the others is that he NEEDS to be "open". If he doesn't have that "separation" Brady isn't going to throw him the ball. Guys like Boldin and CJ can be "covered" and still make the catch. Flacco threw a lot of prayers to Boldin and Smith in the hope they would come down with the ball or get a penalty. It was the kind of pass Brady rarely threw because none his receivers had those kinds of skills. Lloyd came the closest, but that was because of his extraordinary body control rather than his physical presence
The only 2 players the Pats have that give defenses that kind of threat are Gronk, and to a lesser extent Hernandez. I think most Pats fans would welcome a WR who possesses the kind of skills that would allow Brady to throw that ball to the "covered" WR more often knowing that the end result would likely be a penalty, catch or incomplete pass. Right now, if guys don't get separation, Brady has no where to go with the ball. I don't think that the Pats even practice making the 'Flacco prayer" kind of throw. While its a big part of the Ravens offense by design.
it all comes down to cost as the patriots place a value on everything. This is why they are one of the best in maintaining a very competitive team while maintaining good cap health. If we sign him ...for big money....it will hurt us in other areas. You may think stats are awesome...but you have to consider at what cost. I would prefer they keep volmer and talib ..at reasonable ...costs...keeps our defense aggressive while keeping TB upright. I personally think....Welker is a great player but he is a product of our system as well as having a top notch QB. Place him on a team like the browns.....or bengals....and guess what ....his numbers will drop like a rock....
hopefully we can sign all our good players and still have cap space...else ...best of luck to him....
The trouble with losing Wes Welker is that the Patriots haven't planned for his departure. They are lousy at drafting WRs and won't pay the big money for a good one in free agency. They will bring in a couple of Joey Galloway types. Don't be surprised if they put themselves in a real bind by also
cutting LLoyd to save his bonus money. Can you imagine Edleman and Slater
as our wide receivers?
Imagine him at what expense? They've already committed $15M in cap average over the next 6 years to two TE's. You want them to commit $16M+ to one WR? Who had 1 TD through week 8 last season and 1 less than Welker in week 17? $60M+ committed to the top 5 players player contracts on the offensive side of the roster? That's half the cap so thanks, I'll pass.
The amazing thing about Flacco's deep tosses wasn't that Boldin, Smith, or Jacoby occasionally came down with them. It's that NONE of them were intercepted in the playoffs. That's really hard to believe.
The Ravens had a very, very big horseshoe working during their run.
That might just be the silliest thing anyone has posted about football, anywhere, this offseason.
Personally,I appreciate the time consuming effort to amass these statistics and though this is an apples to oranges comparison, it does demonstrate a philosophical difference in approaches and one reasonable conclusion that can be drawn is how the Patriots offense must string together a high number of completions. This approach succeeded 75% of the time this year but failed miserably when Brady was held to a 53% completion rate vs. Baltimore. Small ball gets them into the playoffs.....who can argue with that. But small ball has its limitations and inevitably, during the Welker era, small ball gets very small verses top defenses with NE averaging in the mid teens as their season comes to an end. The Pats weren't able to string those short passes together vs Baltimore and in fact, NE had 38% of their offensive plays go for zero yards or worse. With ZERO stretch the field options, Baltimore just sat back and waited for NE to implode....drops, INTs, incompletions and they did. The point of small ball is for a high % offense to keep moving the chains. Yet when forced to become a one dimensional shot gun all the time offense, their efficiency turtled.
At some point, the homers need to stop blaming execution. Sure, if the offense sputtered once or twice, blame it on execution. But the sample size has now grown large enough. 13,14,17,21..........Guess the Pats keep having execution problems. I noticed the SB teams had no problems scoring in the 30's........with beefier OLs and more vertical passing options. Just another coincidence I guess.
he's gone people....lets see who on the pats can make up for it....
Who wins this poker match?
Patriots need Welker, they would have been in trouble this past season had they let Welker go. They have to find a way to keep Welker!
Well...if Welker is gone i hope he gets a nice payday. It's gonna be tough replacing that kind of consistent production though.
You don't seem to know how sample size works, and you don't take alternate factors into account.
Also, the Ravens scored fewer than 30 points twice in the four games, and ST did it one out of 3.
Do people really think the Patriots don't have a plan if Welker leaves? I think the one thing the Patriots have consistently shown over the past 12+ years is that they have a plan for all scenarios. Not to say that every plan ends up working (for example Caldwell / scrubs replacing Branch at WR in 2006), but they always have something prepared.
That's right, we should only use height, not receptions, first downs, or yards after the catch.
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