Reality check - the Jets are far from done

[cmasspatsfan]

Team / Probability of making playoffs at 10-6 per playoffstatus.com BEFORE today's game

Texans 95%
Jaguars 77%
Titans 66%
Colts hahahahaha

Browns 94%(!)
Bengals 83%
Ratbirds 82%
Squeelers 78%

Tebows 96%
Chargers 96%
Chiefs 95%
Raiders 90%

Patriots 87%
JEST 51%
Bills 77%
LOLphins 0%

In other words: yeah, there's a good chance a 10-6 team will make the playoffs, but, as of this morning, the JEST had the worst chance of being that team.

Id like to see the % after tomorrow nights game, do they update on Tuesdays?

 

[Gwedd]

I think that it would be funny as h3ll to see Buffalo hand the Jets a loss this next week. If you think the Jets boards were in full meltdown after the last two losses, they'd ratchet up to plasma if Buffalo beats them.

 

[Ron Sellers]

How does PlayoffStatus.com determine their percentages?

All I saw was "all future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths", but I didn't see an explanation of that anywhere. Are they looking at each game as a coin flip, where the chances of beating the Packers is the same as the chances of beating the Colts? If it is weighted differently, then what is that formula?


Bottom line is that although the Jets rank very low in the current playoff standings, it is premature to count them out of the playoffs based on their relatively easy schedule.


Cumulative won-loss record of remaining opponents after MNF:
Team:
Number of opponents with .500 or better records:
Remaining opponents with .500 or better records:
_________________________________________________

27-33 -- Ravens -- (2) -- SF, at Cin
22-38 -- Texans -- (3) -- Atl, at Cin, Ten
20-40 -- Patriots -- (2) -- at Den, Buffalo
35-24 -- Raiders -- (3) -- Chi, at GB, Det
29-30 -- Steelers -- (2) -- Cin, at SF
30-30 -- Bengals -- (3) -- at Pit, Hou, Bal

28-30 -- Broncos -- (3) -- Chi, Pats, at Buf
26-34 -- Titans -- (3) -- at Buf, NO, at Hou
25-34 -- NY Jets (2) -- Buffalo, Giants
28-31 -- Bills -- (4) -- at NYJ, Ten, Den, at NE
40-20 -- Chiefs -- (6) -- Pit, at Chi, at NYJ, GB, at Oak, at Den
33-27 -- Chargers -- (5) -- Den, Buf, Bal, at Det, at Oak
30-30 -- Browns (3) -- at Pit, Hou, Bal

 

[E1Downey]

I think the jets are tougher than people give them credit for. They were 5-5 in 09' and still backed in. Not that that means anything THIS year, as this clearly isn't the same jets team, with no run game, an Oline that has regressed ALOT, and a defense that just isn't the same.

Even with all that said, this team is like a ****roach, like many have compared, and need a couple more stomps before They are totally out. I won't count them out until they are 100% eliminated.

 

[goheels22002]

I think the jets are tougher than people give them credit for. They were 5-5 in 09' and still backed in. Not that that means anything THIS year, as this clearly isn't the same jets team, with no run game, an Oline that has regressed ALOT, and a defense that just isn't the same.

Even with all that said, this team is like a ****roach, like many have compared, and need a couple more stomps before They are totally out. I won't count them out until they are 100% eliminated.

The Jets are not good. I almost never credit a win to luck, but their opener agains the Cowboys was a gift from Tony Romo. They should be 4-6. The loss to Denver was indicative of a poor team, followed by the blowout at home in a game they badly needed to win.

Their ground and pound is gone, their receivers are old and slowing down. Holmes cashed in and checked out, and Burress looks like he hit a wall as a result of two years away from competitive football.


Their last three games are a huge hurdle - Eagles, Giants and resurgent Dolphins, but I suspect they'll lose one more before then.

 

[JJDChE]

They're big problem right now is that they are 4-5 in the AFC. That's the worst conference record among any team with realistic playoff hopes. Out of the 10 teams that are 5-5 or better, only the Titans and Raiders have 4 Conf. losses. Everyone else has 2 or 3. Conference record is almost always the first tiebreaker for WC. They're even in a tough spot in the HtH matchups, they've lost to Oakland, Denver and Baltimore. The only teams they've beat (who are still in it) are San Diego and Buffalo. Although, i think most will agree that they are both long shots at this point.

The long and short of it is that the Jets will lose any tiebreaker right now. They absolutely HAVE to beat BUF, KC and MIA to have a shot. One more conference loss and their playoff hopes are done, barring a collapse from all remaining contending teams.

 

[Raymond]

..........this team is like a cochroach..................

This is the only positive attribute I can give to the Jets right now.

But the mods should change this thread to:

the jets are not quite done, yet are far from the playoffs.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Correction: those were the #s before SUNDAY's game. Here are the #s now.

Texans 95% → 98%
Jaguars 77% → cannot reach 10-6 (29% chance at 9-7)
Titans 66% → 71%
Colts hahahahaha

Browns 94%(!) → 98%
Bengals 83% → 85%
Ratbirds 82% → 93%
Squeelers 78% → 86%

Tebows 96% → 96%
Chargers 96% → 99%(!)
Chiefs 95% → 96%
Raiders 90% → 91%

Patriots 87% → 93%
JEST 51% → 58%
Bills 77% → 81%
LOLphins cannot reach 10-6 (27% chance at 9-7)

[Note re: Chargers and Browns—if they can run the table, there's almost no way they can miss the playoffs b/c of the losses they'd inflict on other teams.]

 

[Dessalines]

This situation illustrates quite clearly the difference between possibility and probability. It is still possible for the YETS to make the play-offs but it is highly improbable. There are too many issues on the YETS as a team.

Declining run game efficiency hurts Sanchez who is in no way an Elite Q.B. and may soon be a back up in some place like Kansas City or St. Louis.

The once vaunted Oline is part of the run game decline and they cannot pass protect to save their Quarter Back.

The receiver corps took a step back in preseason. Burress is no Braylon Edwards, Kerely is injured, Holmes is a show boat and Keller has pretty much disappeared. No sense in talking about the Derrick Mason debacle.

Finally and most curiously the defense has taken a step back.

Please note that ANYTHING is possible. Probability is another matter....

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

yes, the jets are not out of it....

in other news it is still possible for the Colts to get a wildcard spot....

also the Dolphins still have a shot at getting the number one seed in the AFC.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I think the Jets will make the playoffs. There are 3 wild cards, and even if you assume 2 of them come from the AFC Central (Ravens and Bengals), the Jets are in as good a position as any of the other 5-5 teams in the conference to make it. They have a decent shot at 10-6 and in that case will get in for sure.

 

[JJDChE]

I think the Jets will make the playoffs. There are 3 wild cards, and even if you assume 2 of them come from the AFC Central (Ravens and Bengals), the Jets are in as good a position as any of the other 5-5 teams in the conference to make it. They have a decent shot at 10-6 and in that case will get in for sure.

There are only 2 wildcards.

Baltimore or Pitt are pretty much guaranteed one at this point.

The most realistic scenario, IMO, is Cincy and the Jets fighting for the final WC. Cincy already has a game in hand and 2 loss lead in the AFC. They have a tougher schedule, though (PIT, BAL and HOU remaining). If all the contenders can only get to 9 wins, then it gets more interesting, as it's more likely that the conference records even up in that scenario because the Jets have a soft AFC schedule remaining (BUF, MIA, KC), whereas Cincy, Tennessee and Denver all have at least one game remaining with an AFC division leader.

Denver has a nice ace, in that they have head to head wins against Cincy and NYJ (though a loss to TEN). A three way tie with NYJ, CIN and DEN would go to DEN on HtH.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I certainly never thought the Jets were done. They'll be done when they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. My guess is they fight their way to the end and it comes down to tiebreakers.

The AFC is bad this year.

 

[jmt57]

I certainly never thought the Jets were done. They'll be done when they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. My guess is they fight their way to the end and it comes down to tiebreakers.

I agree. As often happens in the 48 hours following a game, there was a lot of overreactions from elated Pats fans as well as depressed Jets fans. Their chances took a big hit with their losses to the Pats and Broncos, but with six games still yet to be played it is far too early to declare them as being done.

The AFC is bad this year.

It sure does look like the era of domination by the AFC is coming to a close. It was just a few years ago when the NFC was sending the Bears and Arizona to the Super Bowl that most felt that whoever won the AFCCG would win the SB; we're rapidly approaching the reverse with teams like the Steelers and Pats rebuilding/reloading on the fly, the Chargers regressing, and the Colts bottoming out. Meanwhile New Orleans, Atlanta, Green Bay and Chicago are becoming perennial contenders, the 49ers and Lions have shed their losers label, and the NFC East as always has a couple good teams.