Predict next week's AFC games and playoff scenarios

[upstater1]

I think 1 point of confusion is the fact that some sites are listing the seedings as "if the season ended today", which is markedly different from "what will it look like if team A and B both win next week". ie the Broncos are "currently in" the playoffs but can be leapfrogged even if they win next week.

Yes, and also, the thing that changes radically with one more week is the common games tiebreaker.

Oakland becomes the 4th common game between Baltimore and a bunch of other teams, and Cincy becomes the common game between the Jets and a bunch of other teams.

Right now, there aren't enough common games between certain teams to qualify for the minimum requirement of the tiebreaker.

That's why the seeding for this week is meaningless.

 

[BradyMossWelker]

We almost certainly will host the ravens or the steelers in the wildcat round!!
Probably the two strongest teams in "the hunt" group, I would prefer the ravens, and its the most likely

 

[upstater1]

We almost certainly will host the ravens or the steelers in the wildcat round!!
Probably the two strongest teams in "the hunt" group, I would prefer the ravens, and its the most likely

After the Ravens, the Steelers only fall into the likely category if we beat the Texans. If we lose, Steelers are highly unlikely.

So, if Ravens win, the Ravens are our opponents with 100% certainty.

If we win, Ravens lose, the Steelers are next, 100%.

If we lose, Ravens lose, we play the Broncos or Texans, 50/50.

If we lose, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Denver loses, we play the Texans 100%.

 

[jmt57]

After the Ravens, the Steelers only fall into the likely category if we beat the Texans. If we lose, Steelers are highly unlikely.

So, if Ravens win, the Ravens are our opponents with 100% certainty.

If we win, Ravens lose, the Steelers are next, 100%.

If we lose, Ravens lose, we play the Broncos or Texans, 50/50.

If we lose, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Denver loses, we play the Texans 100%.

Here's a summary of what has to happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs, and who they would play. Keep in mind that there are six games that will determine the final AFC playoff seedings:

• Jacksonville at Cleveland
• New England at Houston
• Pittsburgh at Miami
• Baltimore at Oakland
• Kansas City at Denver
• Cincinnati at New York Jets

Barring a tie in any of these games, there are a total of 64 unique scenarios with these six games; the Steelers make the playoffs in only 14 of them, and would come to Foxboro in 9 of those scenarios. If the Pats beat Houston, there are only two scenarios where the Steelers can make the playoffs.




Steelers get the 5th seed with these teams winning:

• Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
• Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
• Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
• Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *

Steelers get the 6th seed with these teams winning:

• Jax, NE, Pit, Bal, KC, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
• Jax, NE, Pit, Bal, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
• Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
• Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
• Jax, Hou, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals
• Cle, NE, Pit, Bal, KC, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
• Cle, NE, Pit, Bal, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
• Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
• Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
• Cle, Hou, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals

The games with an * are assuming that the Patriots win a tiebreaker with the Bengals for the #3 seed based on Strength of Victory. There are a couple of scenarios where that would not happen, but it is highly unlikely.

 

[Krugman]

I like your vision of the future,upstater.....

 

[jmt57]

Aside from the scenarios above that would result in the Pats playing the Steelers, here are some other potential matchups. There are 64 potential outcomes among the six meaningful AFC games on Sunday; in 48 of them the Pats end up as the #3 seed (75%), and in 16 (25%) they are #4. Those percentages and results are based on the assumption that if the Pats and Bengals are tied, the Pats would still be ahead on the Strength of Victory Tiebreaker.

Below are the combinations of teams that would have to win for the Pats to face these teams in the first round of the playoffs.


Ravens - 38%
Of the 64 potential outcomes, 16 result in the Pats playing Baltimore as the #3 vs #6 seed, and 8 result in the two meeting as a #4 vs. #5.

3 vs 6 (Ravens and Jets win)
JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...KC...NYJ
JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ
JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...KC...NYJ
JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ
JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...KC...NYJ
JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ
JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...KC...NYJ
JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ
CLE....NE....PIT...BAL....KC...NYJ
CLE....NE....PIT...BAL...DEN...NYJ
CLE....NE....MIA...BAL....KC...NYJ
CLE....NE....MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ
CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL....KC...NYJ
CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL...DEN...NYJ
CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL....KC...NYJ
CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL...DEN...NYJ

4 vs 5 (Texans, Ravens and Bengals win)
JAC...HOU..PIT..BAL...KC...CIN
JAC...HOU..PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN
JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...KC...CIN
JAC...HOU..MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN
CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL....KC...CIN
CLE...HOU...PIT....BAL...DEN...CIN
CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL....KC...CIN
CLE...HOU...MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN


Broncos - 28%
Of the 64 potential outcomes, 14 result in the Pats playing the Broncos as the #3 vs. #6 seed, and 4 result in in the two meeting as the #4 vs. #5.

3 vs 6
JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN
JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN
JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...KC...CIN
JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ
JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ
JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ
CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...KC...CIN
CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN
CLE....NE....MIA...BAL....KC...CIN
CLE....NE....MIA...BAL...DEN...CIN
CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ
CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ
CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ
CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...DEN...NYJ

4 vs 5 (Texans and Broncos win; Ravens and Jets lose)
JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN
JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN
CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...DEN...CIN
CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN


Steelers - 13%
8:64 chance of the two meeting as #3 vs. #6; they cannot meet as #4 vs #5.

3 vs 6
JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...KC...CIN
JAC...NE...PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN
JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ
JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ
CLE....NE....PIT...BAL....KC...CIN
CLE....NE....PIT...BAL...DEN...CIN
CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ
CLE....NE....PIT...OAK...DEN...NYJ


Texans - 13%
4:64 chance the two meet as #3 vs. #6; 4:64 as #4 vs. #5.

3 vs 6 (Texans and Jets win, Ravens and Bengals lose)
JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ
JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ
CLE...HOU...PIT...OAK...KC...NYJ
CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ

4 vs 5 (Texans and Bengals win, Ravens and Broncos lose)
JAC...HOU..PIT...OAK...KC...CIN
JAC...HOU..MIA...OAK...KC...CIN
CLE...HOU...PIT....OAK...KC...CIN
CLE...HOU...MIA...OAK...KC...CIN


Jaguars - 6%
4:64 chance the two meet as #3 vs. #6; they cannot meet as #4 vs. #5.

3 vs 6 (Pats and Jaguars win; 3 of Steelers, Ravens, Broncos and Jets lose)
JAC...NE...PIT...OAK...KC...CIN
JAC...NE...MIA...BAL...KC...CIN
JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...KC...NYJ
JAC...NE...MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN


Dolphins - 3%
2:64 chance the two meet as #3 vs. #6; they cannot meet as #4 vs. #5.

3 vs 6 (Pats, Dolphins and Bengals win; Jaguars and Ravens lose)
CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...KC...CIN
CLE....NE....MIA...OAK...DEN...CIN


Jets
The Patriots and Jets cannot meet in the first round.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think vegas could be wrong on this one. If the Patriots beat Houston, Cincy will definitely play to win.

it's just a gut feeling with nothing to back it up, but i think cincy would be making a big mistake not to play to win against the Jets...the assumption that they can turn it off and then on in a seven day span against a team with the Jets' D and running attack could end up putting the jets in the absurd position of actually winning a playoff game. i think the bungles risk losing both times unless they try to win both times.

 

[Simkin]

Pittsburg win Superbowl. Mark my words

 

[gmtaxi27]

Jets
The Patriots and Jets cannot meet in the first round.

Apparently this isn't true. Got this from Profootballtalk.com

Cincinnati can pass New England in the strength of victory tiebreaker if the Bengals and Patriots both lose and the following happens.

Cleveland beats Jacksonville.

Pittsburgh beats Miami.

Indianapolis beats Buffalo.

And any of the following happens: Baltimore beats Oakland, Green Bay beats Arizona, Kansas City beats Denver, New Orleans beats Carolina, Seattle beats Tennessee.

If this happens and the Ravens win, we play the Jets.

How the Bengals could get the third seed with a loss | ProFootballTalk.com

 

[jmt57]

Apparently this isn't true. Got this from Profootballtalk.com

Cincinnati can pass New England in the strength of victory tiebreaker if the Bengals and Patriots both lose and the following happens.

Cleveland beats Jacksonville.

Pittsburgh beats Miami.

Indianapolis beats Buffalo.

And any of the following happens: Baltimore beats Oakland, Green Bay beats Arizona, Kansas City beats Denver, New Orleans beats Carolina, Seattle beats Tennessee.

If this happens and the Ravens win, we play the Jets.

How the Bengals could get the third seed with a loss | ProFootballTalk.com

Yeah, I realize that's possible but was working on the assumption (see top paragraph) that the Bengals will not jump ahead of the Pats on the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. For some reason I thought it would take more like ten specific outcomes rather than the six you outlined though. There's several of those other outcomes that are also based on the Pats winning a tiebreaker over the Bengals based on Strength of Victory.

 

[everlong]

There's one scenario and it's an insane longshot but basically the Steelers end up the 5 seed and would play the Bengals and Jax would be the 6 seed and play us. Basically the Ravens, Broncos, Jets, Texans and probably somebody I'm forgetting would have to lose. That's the best first round match up for us.

Additionally.....We beat the Jags, Steelers beat the Bengals, we beat the Chargers, Steelers beat the Colts, we host and beat the Steelers.

It's a pipe dream but hey what the hell.

 

[jmt57]

There's one scenario and it's an insane longshot but basically the Steelers end up the 5 seed and would play the Bengals and Jax would be the 6 seed and play us. Basically the Ravens, Broncos, Jets, Texans and probably somebody I'm forgetting would have to lose. That's the best first round match up for us.

Additionally.....We beat the Jags, Steelers beat the Bengals, we beat the Chargers, Steelers beat the Colts, we host and beat the Steelers.

It's a pipe dream but hey what the hell.

Yeah, if the Pats beat Houston, Steelers beat Miami, Jaguars beat Cleveland, while the Jets lose to Cincy, Ravens lose to Oakland, and Broncos lose to KC - then Pittsburgh gets the #5 seed and plays at Cincinnati while Jacksonville gets the #6 seed and plays the Pats.

Obviously a longshot with six games having to go a certain way - including wins by the Chiefs and Raiders - but is it really that much stranger than say, the Saints losing at home to the Bucs?

 

[jmt57]

Disregarding what team gets which seed, this is what needs to happen for teams to get in - or be eliminated.


Ravens - beat Oakland and they're in; lose and they're out

Jets - beat Cincinnati and they're in; lose and they're out.


Texans - beat Pats, plus

• Jets and Ravens lose
• Jets and Broncos lose
• Ravens and Broncos lose

Steelers - beat Miami, plus

• Texans and Jets lose
• Texans and Ravens lose
• Ravens, Broncos and Jets lose

Broncos

• beat KC, Jets lose, and any of Ravens/Steelers/Pats lose
• beat KC, Ravens lose, and Steelers or Pats lose
• Steelers, Ravens, Texans and either Jags or Jets lose
• Steelers, Jaguars, Jets, and either Ravens or Texans lose
• Ravens, Texans, Jaguars, Jets and Dolphins all lose

Jaguars - beat Browns, plus

• Steelers lose, Ravens lose, and two of Broncos/Texans/Jets lose
• Broncos, Texans, and Jets all lose, and Steelers or Ravens lose

Dolphins - beat Pittsburgh, plus

• Ravens, Texans, Jaguars and Jets all lose

 

[jmt57]

Here are the NFC playoff scenarios (again disregarding ties.)
A bit less complex than the AFC
Games of interest are Giants at Vikings, Packers at Cardinals, and Eagles at Cowboys.

Saints
Have clinched the #1 seed

Eagles
- Get the #2 seed with a win
- Get the #5 seed with a loss and Packers loss
- Get the #6 seed with a loss and Packers win

Vikings
- Get the #2 seed with a win, and an Eagles loss
- Get the #4 seed with a loss, and a Cardinals win
- Anything else and Minnesota is the #3 seed

Cardinals
- Get the #2 seed with a win, Vikings loss and Eagles loss
- Get the #3 seed with a win, Vikings loss, and Eagles win
- Get the #3 seed with a win, Vikings win, and Eagles loss
- Anything else and Arizona is the #4 seed

Packers
- Get the #5 seed with a win over the Cardinals
- Get the #5 seed with a loss by the Cowboys
- Get the #6 seed with a loss and Cowboys win

Cowboys
- Get the #2 seed with a win, Cardinals loss, and Vikings loss
- Get the #3 seed with a win, Packers loss, and Vikings loss
- Get the #3 seed with a win, Cardinals loss, and Vikings win
- Get the #6 seed with a loss to the Eagles



Here's a matrix of NFC seeding based on who wins those three games.
Only 8 sceanrios, compared to 64 possible outcomes with the AFC.

Winning Teams ........ Playoff Seeding
Min / GB / Phi .......... 1-NO, 2-PHI, 3-MIN, 4-ARI, 5-GB, 6-DAL
Min / GB / Dal .......... 1-NO, 2-MIN, 3-DAL, 4-ARI, 5-GB, 6-PHI
Min / Ari / Phi .......... 1-NO, 2-PHI, 3-MIN, 4-ARI, 5-GB, 6-DAL
Min / Ari / Dal .......... 1-NO, 2-MIN, 3-ARI, 4-DAL, 5-PHI, 6-GB
NYG / GB / Phi ......... 1-NO, 2-PHI, 3-MIN, 4-ARI, 5-GB, 6-DAL
NYG / GB / Dal ......... 1-NO, 2-DAL, 3-MIN, 4-ARI, 5-GB, 6-PHI
NYG / Ari / Phi ......... 1-NO, 2-PHI, 3-ARI, 4-MIN, 5-GB, 6-DAL
NYG / Ari / Dal ......... 1-NO, 2-ARI, 3-DAL, 4-MIN, 5-PHI, 6-GB

 

[jmt57]

An update closing in on halftime of the late games.

• It is still conceivable as of right now that all four wildcard games could be rematches of Week 17 games.

• Both the Ravens and Jets are essentially in playoff games today; win and they're in, lose and they're out.

• If the Ravens win (they're beating Oakland 14-10 right now), they meet the Pats - though it could be either as a 3-6 or 4-5 game.

• If the Ravens lose, then the Pats opponent is dependent on the Broncos - Chiefs game. If the Ravens and Broncos lose, then the Pats play Houston. If the Ravens lose and Broncos win, then the Pats play Denver.

• Denver needs to win, and also a loss by either the Jets or Ravens

• Houston needs losses from two (but not all) of these three: the Ravens, Jets and Broncos.

• Pittsburgh needs all three of these teams to lose: Ravens, Jets, and Broncos.

• Jacksonville and Miami were eliminated.

 

[weswelker#83]

Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats


Jets and Cincinnati will play against each other twice in a row : week 17 and the wild card game.

Watch also this game :Eagles vs Cowboys

They are playing each other in week 17 and most likely again in the wild card game ( NY Giants have to lose their last game versus MIN. VIKINGS)


There is high chances for 2 repeat games back to back weeks:

Eagles vs Cowboys
NYJ vs Cinci

These were the right predictions made on 12/28/2009