Predict next week's AFC games and playoff scenarios

[upstater1]

Okay, so we get Baltimore basically, unless WE win AND the Bengals win (both big dogs expected to rest starters). Then we're dependent on the Miami-Steelers game (Miami wins we get Denver, Pitt wins we get them). I'm about 99% sure the Ravens roll Oakland, so not even going to get into that scenario.

I would say this is correct.

 

[bostonia3333]

Last night I was scared of the thought of facing the Ravens and salivated over the idea of facing the Jets. After thinking about the matchups, my tone has changed a tad. Has anyone seen this BALT team implode lately? My gosh. The Ravens aren't the high flying team we faced in Week 3--Flacco's game has gone down and the coach has problems focusing their players. The Ravens are a very talented team but they are so undisciplined, and it stems from their head coach. Talent wise, the Ravens simply don't have corners to contain above average WRs like the Jets do. All it takes is one great defensive game plan to pull off the upset of the century, and I think the Jets could be due for one of those games. The Jets are good at special teams and can keep a game uncomfortably close. I don't like their offense, but I could see them scoring 17 points on us and holding us to 20 or so. I think Sanchez stinks, but that team uses other ways to score, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that they can pull off a shocker.

 

[micronin127]

Predict the outcome....

Step 1: Predict the games (ignore possibility of ties, they are so rare)

Denver will beat the Chefs
NY Jets will beat the Bengals
Houston will beat the Patriots
Jacksonville will beat the Browns
Pittsburgh will beat Miami
Baltimore will beat Oakland

#1 Indianapolis
#2 San Diego
#3 New England
#4 Cincinnati

Teams with 9-7 records that proceed to tiebreakers...
NY Jets
Denver
Houston
Baltimore
Pittsburgh

Step 1: Since Baltimore and Pittsburgh are from the same division, start by eliminating the Steelers based on division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

Step 2: Head-to-head sweep does not apply amongst NYJ, DEN, BAL, HOU

Step 3: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Eliminates Houston as the only team with 6-6 conference record. All others are 7-5. Proceed with only NYJ, DEN, BAL

Step 4: Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
There are three common opponents. Cincinnati, Oakland, and New England.

The Jets are 3-1 (split with NE and beat both OAK and CIN)
The Broncos are 3-1 (beat NE, beat CIN, and split with OAK)
The Ravens are 1-3 (lost twice to CIN, once to NE, and beat OAK)

The Ravens are eliminated.

Step 5: Strength of victory

I am not sure how much this changes week to week, but DEN .513 would edge the Jets .492. If all of the results from the week flips this in the Jets favor based on Week 17 results, that is possible.

Denver would be the #5 seed and NY Jets would be the #6 seed.

 

[upstater1]

Last night I was scared of the thought of facing the Ravens and salivated over the idea of facing the Jets. LOL today I feel okay about facing the Ravens. Has anyone seen this team implode lately? My gosh. The Ravens aren't the high flying team we faced in Week 3--Flacco's game has gone down and the coach has problems focusing their players. The Ravens are a very talented team but they are so undisciplined, and it stems from their head coach. Talent wise, the Ravens simply don't have corners to contain above average WRs like the Jets do. All it takes is one great defensive game plan to pull off the upset of the century, and I think the Jets could be due for one of those games. The Jets are good at special teams and can keep a game uncomfortably close. I don't like their offense, but I could see them scoring 17 points on us and holding us to 20 or so. I think Sanchez stinks, but that team uses other ways to score, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that they can pull off a shocker.

Well, we won't be playing the Jets. I wish that were our opponent, but it's impossible (makemywayhomer is correct).

 

[upstater1]

Predict the outcome....

Step 1: Predict the games (ignore possibility of ties, they are so rare)

Denver will beat the Chefs
NY Jets will beat the Bengals
Houston will beat the Patriots
Jacksonville will beat the Browns
Pittsburgh will beat Miami
Baltimore will beat Oakland

#1 Indianapolis
#2 San Diego
#3 New England
#4 Cincinnati

Teams with 9-7 records that proceed to tiebreakers...
NY Jets
Denver
Houston
Baltimore
Pittsburgh

Step 1: Since Baltimore and Pittsburgh are from the same division, start by eliminating the Steelers based on division record (3-3 vs. 2-4)

Step 2: Head-to-head sweep does not apply amongst NYJ, DEN, BAL, HOU

Step 3: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Eliminates Houston as the only team with 6-6 conference record. All others are 7-5. Proceed with only NYJ, DEN, BAL

Step 4: Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
There are three common opponents. Cincinnati, Oakland, and New England.

The Jets are 3-1 (split with NE and beat both OAK and CIN)
The Broncos are 3-1 (beat NE, beat CIN, and split with OAK)
The Ravens are 1-3 (lost twice to CIN, once to NE, and beat OAK)

The Ravens are eliminated.

Step 5: Strength of victory

I am not sure how much this changes week to week, but DEN .513 would edge the Jets .492. If all of the results from the week flips this in the Jets favor based on Week 17 results, that is possible.

Denver would be the #5 seed and NY Jets would be the #6 seed.

Step 4 is the key. The common opponents would be NE, Cincy, Indy and Oakland with the Jets having the best record.

This is why the seeding for this week is irrelevant since the common games tiebreaker doesn't kick in until after week 17. After week 17, Cincy & Oakland become the glue that hold that tiebreaker together.

 

[makewayhomer]

ok, there is 1 scenario I found where the Jets get the #6 seed, but it's laughable:

Pats TIE
Jets TIE
Ravens LOSE
Broncos LOSE
Pitt WINS

that is literally like millions to one to occur, so for all intents and purposes, you can eliminate the jets from getting the #6

 

[upstater1]

ok, there is 1 scenario I found where the Jets get the #6 seed, but it's laughable:

Pats TIE
Jets TIE
Ravens LOSE
Broncos LOSE
Pitt WINS

that is literally like millionsne to occur

I just placed that bet in vegas. I put down a dollar. :singing:

BTW, you're crazier than I am.

 

[micronin127]

Step 4 is the key. The common opponents would be NE, Cincy, Indy and Oakland with the Jets having the best record.

This is why the seeding for this week is irrelevant since the common games tiebreaker doesn't kick in until after week 17. After week 17, Cincy & Oakland become the glue that hold that tiebreaker together.

I didn't include Indy! Thanks.

 

[weswelker#83]

Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats


Jets and Cincinnati will play against each other twice in a row : week 17 and the wild card game.

 

[weswelker#83]

Watch also this game :Eagles vs Cowboys

They are playing each other in week 17 and most likely again in the wild card game ( NY Giants have to lose their last game versus MIN. VIKINGS)


There is high chances for 2 repeat games back to back weeks:

Eagles vs Cowboys
NYJ vs Cinci

 

[NEWNYJETS]

if the Jets lose, they probably aren't making the playoffs

I think it may actually be impossible for us to host them

it's mathematically possible for us to host Miami or even Houston, but I cant find a scenario where we host the NYJ

Not impossible.

Sunday January 24th in the championship game. Dont have the time yet but it's on CBS and will be played in Foxboro.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

the most likely scenario is

Baltimore beats Oakland
Houston beats New England
Jets beat Cinci

leaving Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats

i think the pats are going to play to win. this is not a team that played at a high level all season, but rather one that has just begun to get things working together as the season draws to a close. i don't see them slowing down until the bye week before the Super Bowl!

 

[upstater1]

i think the pats are going to play to win. this is not a team that played at a high level all season, but rather one that has just begun to get things working together as the season draws to a close. i don't see them slowing down until the bye week before the Super Bowl!

Either way it doesn't matter in this scenario.

Win or lose, the Patriots would be the 3 seed, and they'd play Baltimore.

Baltimore beats Oakland
Houston beats New England or NE beats Houston
Jets beat Cinci

leaving Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Yes, I don't see us rolling over like the Indianapolis Frenchmen and surrendering a game with a meaningful impact on the rest of the league and that is important even to us.

The #3 seed could be important given the Indy Frenchies have had 6 one-and-dones this decade and will likely lose to the #4 or #6 team, meaning the AFCCG COULD WELL BE PLAYED in San Diego or in Foxboro.

 

[upstater1]

Yes, I don't see us rolling over like the Indianapolis Frenchmen and surrendering a game with a meaningful impact on the rest of the league and that is important even to us.

The #3 seed could be important given the Indy Frenchies have had 6 one-and-dones this decade and will likely lose to the #4 or #6 team, meaning the AFCCG COULD WELL BE PLAYED in San Diego or in Foxboro.

But, the Patriots did this before. In 2006, so it's not like there isn't a precedent. Remember Matt Cassell?

 

[JoeShmoe]

no way we lose to houston

 

[makewayhomer]

i think the pats are going to play to win. this is not a team that played at a high level all season, but rather one that has just begun to get things working together as the season draws to a close. i don't see them slowing down until the bye week before the Super Bowl!

anyone who think the Pats will play to win (and actually win) should be betting heavy on the Pats moneyline this week - you are getting great odds.

you should be able to win about $240 for every $100 you risk. good luck!

 

[supafly]

anyone who think the Pats will play to win (and actually win) should be betting heavy on the Pats moneyline this week - you are getting great odds.

you should be able to win about $240 for every $100 you risk. good luck!

Don't get him started with odds or trends

(for pfs74)

 

[patsinthesnow]

A quick question for the tiebreaking experts.

Why is it on CBS sports and NFL.com it has #5 Broncos and #6 Jets.

On ESPN and NBC it has #5 Jets and #6 Ravens.

 

[makewayhomer]

A quick question for the tiebreaking experts.

Why is it on CBS sports and NFL.com it has #5 Broncos and #6 Jets.

On ESPN and NBC it has #5 Jets and #6 Ravens.

I think 1 point of confusion is the fact that some sites are listing the seedings as "if the season ended today", which is markedly different from "what will it look like if team A and B both win next week". ie the Broncos are "currently in" the playoffs but can be leapfrogged even if they win next week.