I hear it mentioned a lot how the loser of the previous Super Bowl suffers from a "hangover" the next year and can't win it. I decided to do a little research to find out how true this was. I started in 1999, the year after Denver won back-to-back SBs. Here's what I found.
Take the SB winner and look at their previous season. It's very surprising what you find. I'm looking at 13 SB winners.
- 7 of them did not make the playoffs the previous season
- 3 of them lost in the WC round the previous season
- 1 of them lost in the Divisional round the previous season
- 1 of them lost in the Championship Game the previous season
- 0 lost in the SB the previous season
- 1 of them won the SB the previous season (2004 Pats, baby!)
Now, how many "opportunities" were there for teams in those slots? Well, each year there are 20 teams that don't make the playoffs, 4 teams that lose in the WC round, 4 that lose in the Divisional round, 2 that lose in the Championship Games, 1 that loses in the SB, and 1 that wins the SB. So 13 years' worth of that gives you:
- 260 teams that miss the playoffs
- 52 teams that lose in the WC round
- 52 teams that lose in the Div round
- 26 teams that lose in the CG
- 13 teams that lose in the SB
- 13 teams that win the SB
So here are the percentages, taking the first list and dividing it by the second list:
- Miss playoffs the previous year and win the SB: 7 of 260 = 2.69%
- Lose WC round the previous year and win the SB: 3 of 52 = 5.77%
- Lose Div round the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 52 = 1.92%
- Lose CG round the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 26 = 3.85%
- Lose SB the previous year and win the SB: 0 of 13 = 0.00%
- Win SB the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 13 = 7.69%
So the best "path" to winning the Super Bowl is to actually have won it the previous year. More teams that miss the playoffs the previous year go on to win the SB the next year than in any other category. But because there are so many teams that miss the playoffs in any given year, it's still a lower percentage play than other categories.
But the fact is that no team that lost the SB the previous year has gone on to win the SB the next year in this 13-year sample (and it goes back further than that too).
Take the SB winner and look at their previous season. It's very surprising what you find. I'm looking at 13 SB winners.
- 7 of them did not make the playoffs the previous season
- 3 of them lost in the WC round the previous season
- 1 of them lost in the Divisional round the previous season
- 1 of them lost in the Championship Game the previous season
- 0 lost in the SB the previous season
- 1 of them won the SB the previous season (2004 Pats, baby!)
Now, how many "opportunities" were there for teams in those slots? Well, each year there are 20 teams that don't make the playoffs, 4 teams that lose in the WC round, 4 that lose in the Divisional round, 2 that lose in the Championship Games, 1 that loses in the SB, and 1 that wins the SB. So 13 years' worth of that gives you:
- 260 teams that miss the playoffs
- 52 teams that lose in the WC round
- 52 teams that lose in the Div round
- 26 teams that lose in the CG
- 13 teams that lose in the SB
- 13 teams that win the SB
So here are the percentages, taking the first list and dividing it by the second list:
- Miss playoffs the previous year and win the SB: 7 of 260 = 2.69%
- Lose WC round the previous year and win the SB: 3 of 52 = 5.77%
- Lose Div round the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 52 = 1.92%
- Lose CG round the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 26 = 3.85%
- Lose SB the previous year and win the SB: 0 of 13 = 0.00%
- Win SB the previous year and win the SB: 1 of 13 = 7.69%
So the best "path" to winning the Super Bowl is to actually have won it the previous year. More teams that miss the playoffs the previous year go on to win the SB the next year than in any other category. But because there are so many teams that miss the playoffs in any given year, it's still a lower percentage play than other categories.
But the fact is that no team that lost the SB the previous year has gone on to win the SB the next year in this 13-year sample (and it goes back further than that too).