Playoff Predictions (Post here to complain about people speculating)

[1960Pats]

I am not going to get into playoff predictions. Whether we get the 1 or 2 seed (I don't see a reasonably way to miss it) we will get a full week to go through playoff scenarios.

I will say this though. If the Pats beat Baltimore they do Denver a BIG favor.

That would make it much more likely for Denver to get in.

I'm jumping in head first. That's why I posted my favorite finish where the Broncos get knocked out by Miami with help from the Pats the last game of the year. I'll have to come up with another finish that isn't one I was trying to make a point with.

I'm hoping for the Pats to beat the Ratbirds and for the Broncos to lose a couple more. I'd also like to see them both out of the playoffs.

Anyone can make a playoff prediction once the playoffs start. The trick is trying to map out the rest of the season and the playoffs.

And it's more fun, especially as you say, with the Pats sitting in such a good spot.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Gut feeling this is how the AFC plays out, there's always a surprise loser in the playoffs so i have Oakland losing at Indianapolis in a shootout who get in as the 4 seed over Houston and most of the rest is chalk with the team you'd expect winning.

1. NE
2. KC
3. PIT
4. IND
5. OAK
6. DEN

IND over OAK
PIT over DEN

NE over IND
KC over PIT

NE over KC

 

[1960Pats]

New England #1
Oakland #2
Pittsburg #3
Colts #4
KC#5
Denver #6

I didn't even look at remaining home and away games. Miami and Baltimore could very well get in over Pitt and WC team. Who the hell knows still a 1/4 of the season left.

This year I could see the Pats getting knocked out in the divisional round to winning the Super Bowl. Seattle, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, KC, Denver, New England all have a shot and you never know with the Giants or Washington.

I think those seedings are the most likely with the exception that KC will finish as #2. I like KC there.

Houston could get in over Indy. That will basically come down to their game this week. The Baltimore Pitt game in 2 weeks will probably settle that division.

If the Pats hadn't lost Gronk and Amendola I'd have them as a heavy favorite.

 

[XLIX]

So, the analysts on NFLN were technically correct then last night, when they stated that KC would regain the #1 seed with a NE loss on MNF.

Yes. If the Ravens beat NE *and* the season ended Tuesday morning, KC is #1 seed.

As you clarify, it wouldn't really matter since the common opponents would kick in once they get to 4. Am I reading this correctly? In other words, NE would win the top seed if both teams are tied at 13-3, and even if they are both 12-4 (assuming that BOTH of our losses aren't to DEN and the NYJ).

That is correct.

It actually works out that if two teams in the same conference do NOT play each other, then they have to have exactly 4 common opponents. We have to play a team in the AFC West and KC has to play a team in the AFC East, so that's 2 common opponents. We play the entire AFC North and KC has to play one team from the AFC North, so that's 3. They play the entire AFC South and we have to play 1 team from the AFC South so that's #4. Also interesting to note is that those 4 opponents will represent 5 games for each team.

 

[1960Pats]

Yes. If the Ravens beat NE *and* the season ended Tuesday morning, KC is #1 seed.
That is correct.

It actually works out that if two teams in the same conference do NOT play each other, then they have to have exactly 4 common opponents. We have to play a team in the AFC West and KC has to play a team in the AFC East, so that's 2 common opponents. We play the entire AFC North and KC has to play one team from the AFC North, so that's 3. They play the entire AFC South and we have to play 1 team from the AFC South so that's #4. Also interesting to note is that those 4 opponents will represent 5 games for each team.

Looking at the common opponents between KC and NE might be an easier way to look at it. The losses are in red;

KC - Hou, NYJ, Pitt, Den / games left Den.
NE - Hou, NYJ, Pitt / games left Den, NYJ

The Pats are at 3-0 and KC is at 2-2. If the Pats beat the Jets or Denver they would have the tie-breaker

 

[PatsFanSince74]

And if they end up 12-4 and tied with KC they get the #1 seed as long as the two losses aren't to both DEN and NYJ.

Thanks. Is there a web site that keeps track of that or did you crunch the numbers and permutations and combinations yourself?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Actually, if KC wins the AFCW at 12-4 then NE could lose to both DEN and BAL and still get the #1 seed if it beat NYJ and MIA.

Interesting
However I'm sure most of us would be rightfully pessimistic about our playoff success if so

 

[1960Pats]

Maybe it will help the discussion if we see all of the common games that matter.

Since we've already gone over the tie-breakers for NE, KC and Oakland, and they have the edge on the rest right now, let's concentrate on the rest of the teams.

Baltimore has beaten Miami and Buffalo. Pitt has beaten KC and Indy and lost to Miami. Denver beat Houston and Indy. Common games won't matter between those teams.

The rest are here and the common game wins are underlined;

Den - Ind, Cin, KC / game left with KC
Pitt - Ind, Cin, KC / game left with Cin / Pitt has better conference record

Den - Jac, Oak, Cin / Oak / Denver has conference edge
Balt - Jac, Oak, Cin / Cin

Den - Cin, SD, SD / NE / Denver has conference edge
Mia - Cin, SD, NE / NE

Balt - Jac, Oak, Cin / NE /Balt has conference edge
Hou - Jac, Oak, NE / Jac, Cin

Balt - Jac, NYJ, Pitt, Oak / Pitt / Balt has conference edge
Ind - Jac, NYJ, Pitt / Oak, Jac

Hou - KC, NE, Ind / Cin, Ind
Pitt - KC, NE, Ind / Cin / Pitt has conference edge

Hopefully I didn't miss any games.

Of course, with many of those teams playing each other a lot can happen in the next few weeks. The only teams I didn't include were Buffalo and Tennessee, who are 2 games behind and also have poor conference records.