Players with salary cap ?'s and why it may make sense to extend McCourty...

[manxman2601]

Good point because, when you think of NFL safeties with sustained excellence over a period of about a decade, you're thinking of Tavon Wilson, so that's a perfectly even comparison. I mean, it's Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees, and Polamalu/McCourty/Tavon.

You were box score scouting. you would rip someone else for making the point you did and you know it. Admit it and move on.

 

[Deus Irae]

You were box score scouting. you would rip someone else for making the point you did and you know it. Admit it and move on.

As I pointed out in an earlier post, I built in a cushion on my safety list in case people went with the "but McCourty's better than...." approach, so mg preferring McCourty over T.P. doesn't put McCourty in that top 8. Mgteich said he'd prefer Mccourty to T.P. at this point. I didn't belittle mg's position in any way. I pointed out the numbers advantage for T.P., and I left it at that. Mg's likely response, had he even bothered with one under the above circumstances, probably would have been/will be "McCourty plays more of a center field position, as opposed to playing the way T.P. does, which is all over the place", and he'll be right. Because T.P. and McCourty are different kinds of players in different kind of roles, had McCourty's numbers been better, that would have been a very bad sign for T.P. in a comparison. It was a possible starting point for further discussion on the comparison, had he chosen to go there, nothing more.

Unlike what you were doing in your post, I didn't try equating McCourty to some stiff from another team.

 

[manxman2601]

As I pointed out in an earlier post, I built in a cushion on my safety list in case people went with the "but McCourty's better than...." approach, so mg preferring McCourty over T.P. doesn't put McCourty in that top 8. Mgteich said he'd prefer Mccourty to T.P. at this point. I didn't belittle mg's position in any way. I pointed out the numbers advantage for T.P., and I left it at that. Mg's likely response, had he even bothered with one under the above circumstances, probably would have been/will be "McCourty plays more of a center field position, as opposed to playing the way T.P. does, which is all over the place", and he'll be right. Because T.P. and McCourty are different kinds of players in different kind of roles, had McCourty's numbers been better, that would have been a very bad sign for T.P. in a comparison. It was a possible starting point for further discussion on the comparison, had he chosen to go there, nothing more.

Unlike what you were doing in your post, I didn't try equating McCourty to some stiff from another team.

I wasn't trying to equate McCourty to anyone. I used Tavon Wilson as evidence that interceptions or fumbles recovered are meaningless on their own as evidence for how good a safety is and that citing them as evidence that Polamalu is better than McCourty didn't make any kind of case. You are clearly missing the irony in my Wilson comparison.

 

[supafly]

Yeah, 3rd round. Thanks.

I like Ridley, I think he's a good RB but I think Blount is a better weapon and in this NFL 3rd string RBs can be found day 3 in the draft or even UDFA. I have no problem extending Ridley for the right money but I wouldn't be bothered if we don't.

Throwaway question here. If BJGE gets cut by the Bengals, do we bring him back?

I wouldn't be overly concerned if either one of those RBs weren't brought back, as it relates to Ridley/Blount. That said, as long as the compensation isn't ridiculous, we shouldn't have that much of an issue. The wildcard is Belichick's definition of "ridiculous" RB money of course, but frankly--I'm not really too concerned with RB moves at the moment. As you said, we've proven to do just fine with a RBBC system, so the cost obviously isn't going to be anywhere near that of a bell-cow back. If Blount wishes to take 2m or less to stay on, fine. If not, fine too.

I still believe that we'll know more about Ridley's long term future in the NFL after this next season, as he's proven to be a viable RB in this league, as long as he's able to hold onto the ball. I wouldn't quite give up on him just yet, depending upon the situation of the fumbles of course. These latest ones were just too detrimental to our team and the game situation, but as a whole RBs are probably going to fumble a couple times throughout each season.

 

[Deus Irae]

I wasn't trying to equate McCourty to anyone. I used Tavon Wilson as evidence that interceptions or fumbles recovered are meaningless on their own as evidence for how good a safety is and that citing them as evidence that Polamalu is better than McCourty didn't make any kind of case. You are clearly missing the irony in my Wilson comparison.

I wasn't missing the point of your post. I was noting its inapplicability. Rather than noting the obvious, that stats are not all that matter in football, you went so far as to pull up a failed player, which was a terrible overplay (and, yes, equation) because of the context of mgteich and my conversation.

 

[supafly]

I was actually asking if my thinking that by extending him now we could adjust his 2014 cap #?

Absolutely.

It's one of the bigger incentives that a team has in offering an extension ahead of time, aside from of course--their intent to keep that player in the future.

The only problem with that thinking may be McCourty's belief in what he's worth. Let's remember that his brother Jason recently signed an extension worth 5 yrs/43 million or approx a bit less than 9m per year AAV. Of course he's a CB, but if Devin is expecting anything like that he may not be able to get that extension that we've been expecting for the past year.

I'm thinking that they will be offering something in the range of 5/30 at best.

 

[manxman2601]

I wouldn't be overly concerned if either one of those RBs weren't brought back, as it relates to Ridley/Blount. That said, as long as the compensation isn't ridiculous, we shouldn't have that much of an issue. The wildcard is Belichick's definition of "ridiculous" RB money of course, but frankly--I'm not really too concerned with RB moves at the moment. As you said, we've proven to do just fine with a RBBC system, so the cost obviously isn't going to be anywhere near that of a bell-cow back. If Blount wishes to take 2m or less to stay on, fine. If not, fine too.

I still believe that we'll know more about Ridley's long term future in the NFL after this next season, as he's proven to be a viable RB in this league, as long as he's able to hold onto the ball. I wouldn't quite give up on him just yet, depending upon the situation of the fumbles of course. These latest ones were just too detrimental to our team and the game situation, but as a whole RBs are probably going to fumble a couple times throughout each season.

Only going by how he drafts, I do think Blount and his outstanding size/athleticism is appealing to BB beyond "If Blount wishes to take 2m or less to stay on, fine. If not, fine too. ". I think BB really likes these ridiculous specimens for his team; the outstanding athlete, the long DE and LT, the 270 MLB etc. Blount is a potential mismatch. If a team stacks the box to deal with his size, he'll break the big one as we saw towards the end of the season. It might make him more likely to get a better than thought contract.

 

[supafly]

Only going by how he drafts, I do think Blount and his outstanding size/athleticism is appealing to BB beyond "If Blount wishes to take 2m or less to stay on, fine. If not, fine too. ". I think BB really likes these ridiculous specimens for his team; the outstanding athlete, the long DE and LT, the 270 MLB etc. Blount is a potential mismatch. If a team stacks the box to deal with his size, he'll break the big one as we saw towards the end of the season. It might make him more likely to get a better than thought contract.

Anything's possible, but with a RBBC system, it's not going to make that much sense to overpay him too much. As you said, Belichick may love him, so we'll have to see what happens.

Belichick certainly hasn't hesitated to move on quickly from RBs and replace them with others, however, so I don't think he's exactly a lock either. Obviously it will all depend on Blount's contract demands.

 

[manxman2601]

Anything's possible, but with a RBBC system, it's not going to make that much sense to overpay him too much. As you said, Belichick may love him, so we'll have to see what happens.

Belichick certainly hasn't hesitated to move on quickly from RBs and replace them with others, however, so I don't think he's exactly a lock either. Obviously it will all depend on Blount's contract demands.

A RBBC now doesn't mean one in the future. Like I said, I just think BB covets those types of guys but they all have a price. We shall wait and see what Blount's is.

 

[supafly]

A RBBC now doesn't mean one in the future. Like I said, I just think BB covets those types of guys but they all have a price. We shall wait and see what Blount's is.

If we're expecting Belichick to make Blount a higher priority this offseason, along with all of Talib, Edelman, and Fletcher (who isn't really that much of a monetary concern as he is to me an important backup) AND have the flexibility to make some of the usual lower to medium signings (one/two medium), then we're going to have to expect some serious tough cut examples.

I would cap Blount at around 2m AAV myself, but like you said--we'll have to see.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I think we can still make some moves to give us some flexibility in FA and extending McCourty is a no-brainer for me.

Looking at our current cap situation we have approximately $123,260,000 allocated for our top 51. With our 2013 carryover we have an adjusted cap number of about $130.9mil, giving us about $7.64mil in cap space. That doesn't take into account things such as practise squad, 52nd and 53rd players on the roster, the draft and IR, so we will need to also account for that. However most of those costs aren't required early on and some of which can be recouped by cutting veterans in training camp and replacing them with cheaper, younger players.

Some moves I would look to make (all savings are net savings and take into account replacing them with a minimum salaray player in the top 51):

Re-structure Wilfork ($4mil saving)
Extend McCourty ($1mil Saving)
Extend Gostkowski ($1mil saving)
Extend Slater ($250k saving)
Re-structure Amendola ($1.2mil saving) *I'm not ready to give up on him yet
Extend Gregory ($800k saving)* I think he is a solid vet and would like to keep him around
Cut Sopoaga ($2mil saving)
Cut Connolly ($2.5mil saving)*I would consider keeping him if he took a pay cut
Cut A. Wilson ($670k saving)
Mallett ($282k) *if traded

Total Savings: $13,702,000


Unlikely to make roster during camp (savings for the season but not available for FA)
Bequette ($80k)
DJ Williams ($150k)
Chris White ($150k)
Forston ($75k)

Saving:$455,000


Possible Camp Cuts
Tavon Wilson ($278k)
Tommy Kelly ($1.955mil)

Savings: $2,233,000


Making these moves we could save an extra $13.7mil for free agency, and somewhere between $500k to $2.5mil for in season costs depending on which players make the roster in camp.


Looking at these numbers I would assume we have about $17-18mil to spend on free agents while allowing for in season costs. I think any free agent acquisitions would be back loaded to pass the end of the contracts of Wilfork and Mankins, the dead cap of Hernandez and allow for a possible increase to the salary cap.

Key Re-Signings
Re-sign Edelman 4 yr $22mil ($10mil guaranteed, $6mil signing bonus)- 1st year cap hit $3mil
*1st 2 years salary fully guaranteed (2014: $1.5mi; 2015: $2.5mil)
*Not quite Welker/Amendola money but not far off. He still only has 1 year of production


Re-sign Talib 4yr $26 ($12mil signing bonus) - 1st year cap hit $4mil
*Add some NLTBE incentives to reward him if he earns it


Some of the free agents I personally would love to sign (although probably unlikely)

Sign FA OG Jon Asomoah- 5yrs $30mil ($14mil guaranteed, $10mil signing bonus)- $1st year cap hit $3
*1st 2 years salary fully guaranteed (2014:$1mil; 2015: $3mil

Sign FA DE Michael Johnson 5yrs $45mil ($20mil guaranteed, $15mil signing bonus)- 1st year cap hit $4.5
*First 2 years salary fully guaranteed (2014: $1.5mil; 2015: $3.5mil)
*This is a reasonably strong FA DE class with Johnson the #4 ranked DE (likely #3 if Orakpo os Franchised). This is based off the top pass rusher contract last year of Paul Kruger

These 4 signing would take up about $14.5mil of cap space in year 1, although it would only be a net addition of $12.52mil after accounting for players at the bottom of the roster they would replace. This would still give us some room and flexibility to make other necessary moves (re-sign Blount?, backup C/re-sing Wendell?, long snapper and other vet FA's.)