PFW's exclusive draft value chart

[mgteich]

You minimize the problem.

46% of our 2009 TD receptions were by players who will not be here for Game 1.

33% of our receptions were by players who are gone (and another 6% by Aiken and Stanback).

You mention TE's as a replacement for Welker. First they need to replace the production of the 2009 tight ends (43 catches). This number was more than Edelman in 2009 and more than Faulk.
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Sure, I would be fine with some 6th or 7th roundeer replacing the production of Aiken and Stanback. 23 catches would be fine for such a player. He could even be "great" like Edeleman in his first year (37 catches).

True. However, there are guys like Blair White and Jordan Shipley who, regardless of their Combine numbers, have proven that they know how to get open and catch. Include Pitta, ****erson and Quarless and a couple others and there are a number of prospects who could replace Welker's production - spread out over two or three targets.

 

[Feep50]

You minimize the problem.

46% of our 2009 TD receptions were by players who will not be here for Game 1.

33% of our receptions were by players who are gone (and another 6% by Aiken and Stanback).

You mention TE's as a replacement for Welker. First they need to replace the production of the 2009 tight ends (43 catches). This number was more than Edelman in 2009 and more than Faulk.
=======================================

Sure, I would be fine with some 6th or 7th roundeer replacing the production of Aiken and Stanback. 23 catches would be fine for such a player. He could even be "great" like Edeleman in his first year (37 catches).

I was told that there would be no math..........................

 

[borg]

But remember that Jax has no 2nd rounder, which changes the whole complexion of things. Lots of folks are predicting they'll trade down in the 1st to recoup the 2nd, and pick up their QB before #33 rolls around.

Dag nammit. And here I thought I was making some sense. Never mind

 

[patchick]

Dag nammit. And here I thought I was making some sense. Never mind

I understand, I often harbor delusions that I'm making sense. But the actual draft results always bring me back to Earth.

 

[jmt57]

Yes, we have 7 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. No matter how well we did with Given and Edelman, we cannot count on finding the 2010 repacement for Welker's production in the 6th or 7th round.

And some would argue that we need a WR last year even with Welker and Moss playing. After all, Aiken has lots of reps.

We're not counting on a late draft pick to replace Welker's production.
When Welker was out Edelman filled in very adequately.

The place production needs to improve is at the WR position opposite Moss. Regardless of who is added to the roster between now and September, it will be almost impossible for that group to not be an improvement over Galloway, Aiken and Stanback.

Your numbers pointing out receptions and touchdowns by players that are no longer here seem large, but stop and think about it: there's a reason those players are no longer on the roster: they weren't that good!

Replacing the production from Galloway, Watson, Baker, Aiken and Stanback is not that difficult. The difference between Welker and Edelman in terms of production is not as large as it is being made to appear to be. Obviously any player with 13 games (Welker) is going to have bigger numbers than a player with 3 games (Edelman); compare their averages per game and it's pretty close.

 

[mgteich]

WIDE RECEIVERS NOT NAMED MOSS
Total receptions = 190

Even counting on Edelman for 80 receptions leaves us looking for 110.

We're not counting on a late draft pick to replace Welker's production.
When Welker was out Edelman filled in very adequately.

The place production needs to improve is at the WR position opposite Moss. Regardless of who is added to the roster between now and September, it will be almost impossible for that group to not be an improvement over Galloway, Aiken and Stanback.

Your numbers pointing out receptions and touchdowns by players that are no longer here seem large, but stop and think about it: there's a reason those players are no longer on the roster: they weren't that good!

Replacing the production from Galloway, Watson, Baker, Aiken and Stanback is not that difficult. The difference between Welker and Edelman in terms of production is not as large as it is being made to appear to be. Obviously any player with 13 games (Welker) is going to have bigger numbers than a player with 3 games (Edelman); compare their averages per game and it's pretty close.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that JAX wants to trade down badly. They may be able to trade down twice as we did last year, and still get Tebow in the first. In any case, I don't see Buffalo passing at 41.

But remember that Jax has no 2nd rounder, which changes the whole complexion of things. Lots of folks are predicting they'll trade down in the 1st to recoup the 2nd, and pick up their QB before #33 rolls around.

 

[jmt57]

WIDE RECEIVERS NOT NAMED MOSS
Total receptions = 190

Even counting on Edelman for 80 receptions leaves us looking for 110.

You're working on the assumption that the number of receptions the team had last year is a standard that has to be met. In the history of the National Football League a quarterback has thrown for 390 or more completions in a single season just ten times. The Pats as a franchise have thrown for 390 or more receptions just two other times in their history: in 2007, and in 1994.

The Pats were throwing the ball as often as they did in 2009 due to multiple injuries to their running backs. If they can stay healthier than they did last year then they can run the ball more often, which in turn means they won't have to pass as often.

We're probably looking at needing to find an additional 40 - 60 receptions from other players, not 110. More than that would be nice, but not a necessity.

 

[Uncle Rico]

I see they have Odrick and D. Williams both as 1Bs. Odrick has been a popular prediction for the Pats at 22, with Williams usually long gone in earlier mocks. But I've seen mocks lately that have him going after 22. Obviously there are a lot of factors such as who else is available, but for those who have been saying Odrick is the pick -- would you take him over DW if both are available? I know Odrick has the more DE-friendly build, but Williams plays like a wild beast from what I've seen.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Figured I'd revisit this. After each player is where PFW had that player rated.

27 Devin McCourty early 2nd
42 Rob Gronkowski early 2nd
53 Jermaine Cunningham mid 4th
62 Brandon Spikes late 2nd
90 Taylor Price mid 3rd
113 Aaron Hernandez early 3rd
150 Zoltan Mesko ST not rated
205 Ted Larsen late 5th
208 Thomas Welch late 7th
247 Brandon Deaderick early 5th
248 Kade Weston late 5th
250 Zac Robinson UDFA

 

[captain stone]

A couple of things of which I took notice:

- Bill got more value out of more picks than he has since 2003.

- The number of draftable WRs whom Bill ignored, just to take Zac Robinson - and to a somewhat lesser extent, Tom Welch - makes me sick to my stomach.

- Jermaine Cunningham has a helluva lot to prove in order to justify his 2nd-round status. If Bill wanted to reach for a DE/OLB at 53, I wish he had reached for Daniel Te'o-Nesheim instead.

- BTW, in PFW's last value chart,
ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart,
Cunningham was downgraded to the early 5th round; Deaderick to the late 6th; and Weston to the middle 6th. On the bright side, Gronk was upgraded to the late first round.

 

[State]

Good link, Captain.

It is also noticeable that the Colts' free agent pickup from Michigan State is a very good value. I think Blair White would have fit in very nicely here in New England. He had a great relationship with Brian Hoyer too.

I also see that McCourty is rated a high second. Probably he's fine where we picked him. But the lack of talent we passed on in the defensive line and WR really hurts. Mt. Cody and Golden Tate on this team. That would have been awesome.

We've got a big hole at RDE, where we ended up moving Wolfork over there in the playoff game when the Ravens were blowing us off the line, and our OLBers are about the worst in the league. I can actually see Tully Banta-Cain and Pierre Woods starting. Both should be back-ups or role players.

And I caught a lot of gruff last year about this time making fun at the prospect of Woods being a starter. Now he looks better than anyone else on the team.