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Pats favored by 9.5 over Jets... how can this be?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Oct 3, 2011.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Pats have opened as 9.5 point favorites at-home against the Jets next Sunday. This has to be one of the most surprising point spreads I have seen; this is basically the same spread as the playoff game last year. I would have thought this spread would be around 4-6 before Mayo went down, and likely 2.5-3.5 after.

    The Jets have beaten us 3 out of the last 5, including at Foxboro last year, and they are certainly the more desperate team here. I think the Pats will eke one out, but a spread of 9.5 is Vegas saying they don't expect the game to be competitive.

    I guess we can never use the "disrespect card" to our advantage for as long as Brady is still here.
  2. Rob0729

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    Have you watched the Jets play this year? Without the Romo meltdown in week one, they would be 1-3. They have no running game (which on offense vs. the Pats you need to keep Brady off the field). Their defense has been average at best. Sanchez is still the same - mediocre most of the game with spurts of brilliance.

    The Jets have given up 23.8 PPG (that is with only allowing 3 points to Luke McCown and the Jags) and scored 25 PPG. The Pats have allowed 24.5 PPG and scored 37 PPG. You take away each team's best game as far as points allowed (the Jets with 3 points and the Pats with 19) and the Jets have actually given up more points than the Pats. You take away garbage TDs by the Dolphins and Raiders, and the Pats have given up less points.

    I think this is a statement on the Jets. The Jets are not the Jets from last year or the year before. They are a middle of the pack team right now. Possibly worse.

    Since Vegas puts the odds of where they think the money will go, the NY population is a big factor in Vegas betting, and the Jets fans are down on their team; I think they think that people are going to be heavily on the Pats.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  3. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    For two years, this Jets team has over-achieved and been the beneficiary of great health, great luck and good coaching when it mattered. It is only a matter of time before their lack of talent & depth in key positions catch up to them.

    Unfortunately, they continue to pose a matchup problem for the Patriots, so I will not take them lightly.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  4. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The Jets D will drpefinately come to play this game,this might break the Pats 30 or kore points streak

    9.5 is just insane.....the line should be 4 at best
  5. Rob0729

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    The Jets are averaging giving up 23.8 PPG (which is only 0.7 PPG less than the Pats) and that is with Luke McCown playing against them. They might break the 30 points or more streak, but in four games the Jets have given up 30 points or more three times. Granted last night it wasn't because of the defense.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Mangold is known to be playing early enough in the week, that line will change.
  7. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Folly. We don't have a defense like Baltimore (unfortunately) and the Jets will be in desperation mode. We'd better be ready.
  8. Sicilian

    Sicilian Rookie

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    Well it's probably not far off. Take away the standard 3 for the Pats being at home, and it's a 6.5 line on a neutral field. Given our string of wins at home during the regular season, I'm sure they've got a lot of bettors taking the Pats. As always, the goal of the line is not to predict who wins, but to get as even a spread of takers as they can get.
  9. Sicilian

    Sicilian Rookie

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    Not all of those points are against their defense though.
  10. Kid~Brady

    Kid~Brady Rookie

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    The Jets aren't the same Jets as the last 2 years.

    I've been seeing spurts of that luck from last season but it seems to be running short. The first play on offense turned into a defensive TD for the Ravens. I blame most of it on the o-line, they def need Mangold back.

    The defense hasnt been the best either aside from Revis. The run defense is struggling some and Cromartie is finally being called for all of the holding he commits. They will be hungry but I doubt they win. As hard as they'll be playing, we'll be playing just as hard.
  11. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I am pretty sure all of them other than last night were against the defense.
  12. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I agree...too many here are looking at what the Jets did...or didn't do last night and are thinking this team is on a downward spiral and looks totally unorganized.

    We all know this is the NFL and things change quickly.....The Bengals looked horrid against the 49ers 2 weeks ago and then they looked like a SB team in the second half yesterday.

    Week to week there will be change.
  13. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I am judging the Jets based on what I have seen all year. I have watched all four of their games.

    I agree that it is only four weeks in and they can turn it around, but I don't think they will fix all of their problems in one game.

    I do think it is funny that you are one of the "the Pats' defense is completely broke and cannot be fixed" crowd and yet, you think the Jets can fix all of their problems overnight against the Pats. I know you are usually overly negative, but come on.
  14. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    None of the main boards have a line posted yet - they usually waist until after MNF. I cannot imagine that this border war will have a spread igger than 4 or so. Everybody should just jump all over 9 or more. It'll open under a TD for sure. Rexy's defense was built to stop the Patriots. (But he did not know that Stevan Ridley was coming to town.)
  15. PatsFanSince74

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    The spread has nothing to do with "disrespect" or "respect," but is purely driven by cash money and avarice. That's what it's taking to get people to bet on the Jets this week.

    The Jets are a 1--3 team without Tony Romo's gifts in their opener. They played like an 0--4 team last night. Sanchez is getting exposed more and more every week. They have no running game, their O-line is a mess and a very fragile and aging Plaxico ("I hit me with my best shot") Burress is no replacement for Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes.

    Still, if I were a betting man, I would take those points. :)
  16. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I would hop all over that bet... and put down much cash.
  17. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The Pats D looked O.K. Against Campbell yesterday but they are still in the basement and lost yet another leader on defense to boot.

    Granted both defenses playing next week are far from good so expect both teams to score into the 20s and maybe one gets to 30 but the Jets will put more than 17 on the board next week....that we can agree with I assume.
  18. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I would have guessed the spread was going to be 4.5 and up to 6.5 wouldn't have shocked me but 9.5 is a ton of points vs a good divisional opponent.
  19. NinjaZX6R

    NinjaZX6R Rookie

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    It was 8.5 yesterday.
  20. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    The Jets can't run, and the one thing that we can do against the pass is create turnovers. Sanchez is a turnover machine. I'm still nervous, and I really, really would like to see Haynesworth and Hernandez back for this game, but if the Patriots get a big lead early, I could easily see Sanchez pressing and giving the ball away stupidly.

    The Chargers are about as good as the Jets are right now, and we beat them by two touchdowns. The 9.5 point line def. seems a little high, and I won't be taking it, but some people will. After seeing Baxter and Ducasse last night, it's not hard to imagine them absolutely ruining the Jets when they go up against Wilfork and Haynesworth. They really, really need Mangold back.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  21. BradyFTW!

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    #12 Jersey

    And Joe Flacco is no Tom Brady.
  22. Triumph

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    Maybe this spread means that Haynesworth is making the trip this weekend. ;)
  23. DefenseRules

    DefenseRules Rookie

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    That line is way too high IMHO. I have no trust in this defense. I'll be shocked if this defense keeps that Jet offense from scoring 20 points and being generous.

    I think the Pats will win, but I think that it will be a close game.
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  24. D-Money

    D-Money Rookie

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    9.5?Thats a little to high.I expect a close game that could go either way.The jets are coming in desperate.This is a huge game in the division because the pats already have a division loss to the bills.Cant lose a second division game.The jets would own the tie-breakers if u lose at home.
  25. Deus Irae

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    I forgot to add.......


    I expect the Patriots to win by double digits.
  26. letekro

    letekro Rookie

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    If gambling were legal, I would bet a hypothetical, significant amount on the Jets at 9.5
  27. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    My major concern heading into this one. Jets need this one way way more than we do.
  28. D-Money

    D-Money Rookie

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    Actually if the pats didnt lose to the bills then i would say that its not as important but u already have a division loss.Also i am sick of the jets and still not over the playoffs loss.:mad:
  29. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BTW, here are the Pats first four games:

    Vs. Dolphins - Won by 14
    vs. Chargers - Won by 14
    vs. Bills - Lost by 3
    vs. Raiders - Won by 12

    So every one of the Pats' wins have been by double digits.

    Here are the Jets for the last two weeks:

    vs. Raiders - Lost by 10
    vs. Baltimore - Lost by 17

    So when the Jets lost this year, they have lost by double digits.

    So if Vegas thinks the Pats are going to win, it is logical to think it will be by double digits.
  30. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Do you mean yesterday's game line? or the game line for this week posted yesterday?

    The Pats were favored by 4 against Oakland
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