Pats favored by 9.5 over Jets... how can this be?

[BradyFTW!]

My major concern heading into this one. Jets need this one way way more than we do.

I dunno if that's true. If the Pats lose, they're 3-2, but only 1-2 in the division. Third place in the division is not where we want to be.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

You have to remember that betting lines are just that, betting lines. It is not what the oddsmakers THINK WILL HAPPEN, it is the line at whcih the oddmakers THINK THEY WILL GET THE MOST EVEN ACTION. If you opened this game with the Pats as a three point favorite, you would get little to no action on the Jets. You push it to 9 and it pretty much evens out.

 

[SanAngeloState]

seems kind of high. Definitely wouldn't take the points though. NE defense is not so hot but should still just about shut out the Jets offense, which is very, very bad. Bad OL is pretty important.

NE is good for 30 points pretty consistently.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I would not expect to hear alot of trash talking going into this game,especially a team on a 2 game slide that does not want to promote bulletin board material

The Jets will likely keep quiet and work on getting well prepared for this division game

 

[letekro]

Las Vegas and Reno Nevada says Hi


And thats just one of many legal places to go

I don't have occasion to be in either locale this week, but thanks for the tip!

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

BTW, here are the Pats first four games:

Vs. Dolphins - Won by 14
vs. Chargers - Won by 14
vs. Bills - Lost by 3
vs. Raiders - Won by 12

So every one of the Pats' wins have been by double digits.

Here are the Jets for the last two weeks:

vs. Raiders - Lost by 10
vs. Baltimore - Lost by 17

So when the Jets lost this year, they have lost by double digits.

So if Vegas thinks the Pats are going to win, it is logical to think it will be by double digits.

Not only that but every time that NE has beating the Jets going back to 2007, the win was by more than 10 points. The Jets have won a few of those games by spreads of less than double digets, but everytime NE was the victor it was by more than 10.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You have to remember that betting lines are just that, betting lines. It is not what the oddsmakers THINK WILL HAPPEN, it is the line at whcih the oddmakers THINK THEY WILL GET THE MOST EVEN ACTION. If you opened this game with the Pats as a three point favorite, you would get little to no action on the Jets. You push it to 9 and it pretty much evens out.

This is only true to a small extent. Most serious bettors are the ones that put down a ton of money; Vegas would get killed if they put spreads that were not accurate by the standards of computer simulations and handicappers.

Most lines that come out feature heavy betting on one side, usually around 70% for the team that most fans side with. So, if Vegas is trying to get equal betting, they are not doing a good job.

Sometimes they might adjust a line in anticipation of heavy betting to one side, but we're not talking about more than 1-2 points.

 

[condon84]

This is only true to a small extent. Most serious bettors are the ones that put down a ton of money; Vegas would get killed if they put spreads that were not accurate by the standards of computer simulations and handicappers.

Most lines that come out feature heavy betting on one side, usually around 70% for the team that most fans side with. So, if Vegas is trying to get equal betting, they are not doing a good job.

Sometimes they might adjust a line in anticipation of heavy betting to one side, but we're not talking about more than 1-2 points.

The line could change significantly if one side gets too much action.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I would take those points TODAY

The line by gametime might be low as 3 1/2

 

[Rob0729]

I would take those points TODAY

The line by gametime might be low as 3 1/2

No way does the points swing that much unless there is an injury to a major Patriots player during practice this week. The general perception around the country is that the Pats are a top 2-5 team and the Jets are a team sinking fast. The Jets just lost Bryan Thomas for the season (not a great player, but a starter). I could see the line increasing to 10 or 10.5 as much as it going down.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Jets just announced LB Brian Thomas out for the season.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Pats have opened as 9.5 point favorites at-home against the Jets next Sunday. This has to be one of the most surprising point spreads I have seen; this is basically the same spread as the playoff game last year. I would have thought this spread would be around 4-6 before Mayo went down, and likely 2.5-3.5 after.

The Jets have beaten us 3 out of the last 5, including at Foxboro last year, and they are certainly the more desperate team here. I think the Pats will eke one out, but a spread of 9.5 is Vegas saying they don't expect the game to be competitive.

I guess we can never use the "disrespect card" to our advantage for as long as Brady is still here.

Their offense is terrible, worse than all 4 teams we have faced. One of the worst QBs, a banged up line, an average rush defense and a secondary that has to deal with a fired up Brady just looking to get back.

Did I mention we never lose at home reg season? Rarely do we squeak out a 3 pt win at home.

 

[D-Money]

They can have the worse offense but it will look good against this defense.Also u will get a desperate team searching for a win and thats dangerous no matter where it is.Its also a division game and those games are never easy.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

They can have the worse offense but it will look good against this defense.Also u will get a desperate team searching for a win and thats dangerous no matter where it is.Its also a division game and those games are never easy.

So they will play hard, and? Did we lose to the Steelers or Ravens in the playoffs, because it can't be the Jets. If it was then wouldn't WE also be playing hard?

Are we going to just lay down to our biggest rival because they are desperate (as if 3-1 is a playoff lock or something), if we do then this team is a joke. I think we win huge.

 

[D-Money]

I see a tight game.I will be surprise if they blow them out.You think this defense will stop the jets from scoring points?If this team maded Henne look like a pro bowler then Sanchez will have a decent game.I see him putting up obver 250 yards passing.

 

[Guts]

Real talk I see the Patriots winning by double digits. That's actually the only way I see them winning if the game is close I see them being in trouble. The Patriots need to be balanced and have long sustaining drives to burn the clock once they have a lead. Interesting fact: The Patriots are the only team to score on each of their opening drives so far in the season so if they get an early lead become balanced this Jets team don't scare me. If we have Hernandez back at a productive level I can easily see this game in favor of the Pats. Hernandez is the X Factor of the offense he just makes life easier for Welker, Gronk, and Branch. If we have a good running game going it's over for the Jets. As for our defense it all depends on our health. If we get Haynesworth, Dowling, and Bodden back we should be in good shape we gonna allow yards but that's because we going to make Sanchez beat us and I can see him making a mistake. We gots this you guys 4-1 here we come.

 

[mgteich]

I find it really sad that patriot posters can't understand why ANYONE would think that we are a touchdown better than the jets on a neutral field.

 

[BradyToAmendola]

This is going to be a dogfight in my opinion. Remember, it's never as good as it looks and never as bad as it looks, that's the situation right now with the Jets. From week to week you can look like a completely different football team. They'll also be getting arguably the MVP of their offense Nick Mangold back.

A lot of it has to do with matchups. The Jets match up well with NE just in the fact that the Pats are a passing team and the Jets have the best CB in the league that shuts down a large portion of the field. NE will have to run the ball very effectively like how they did in Oakland, play a ball posession game, and stay fundamentally sound. NE's weak vs the pass, and unfortunately the Jets have a plethora of talented receiving options. I'm expecting a tough, entertaining game. This is a good early season measuring stick game, I believe.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I would take those points TODAY

The line by gametime might be low as 3 1/2

There is no absolutely no chance whatsoever that any sports book lets a line swing from 9.5 to 3.5. They would take it off the board long before it got to that. A three key point middle is basically suicide on their part.

 

[D-Money]

Definetly need Hernandez this week.I wanna see them go to the run alot.I wanna see more Ridley.Try and pound the football!!!!