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Patriots' WR & RB draft history

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, Jan 3, 2009.

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  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I had written a bunch of comments, but instead I'll just lay out the facts and let y'all draw your own conclusions. Below are the draft picks the Pats have spent on WRs and RBs during Belichick's tenure. The first list is rookies, the second vets acquired via trades of picks.

    Position Year Round Name
    RB 2006 1 Laurence Maroney
    RB 2000 3 J.R. Redmond
    RB 2004 4 Cedric Cobbs
    RB 2007 6 Justise Hairston
    RB 2000 7 Patrick Pass
    RB 2002 7 Antwoine Womack
    RB 2003 7 Spencer Nead
    WR 2002 2 Deion Branch
    WR 2003 2 Bethel Johnson
    WR 2006 2 Chad Jackson
    WR 2004 5 P.K. Sam
    WR 2002 7 David Givens

    Position Year Round Name
    RB 2004 2 Corey Dillon
    WR 2007 2 Wes Welker
    WR 2007 4 Randy Moss
    WR 2006 5 Doug Gabriel
     
  2. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Definitely a very good illustration at our lack of success in recent years. the RB position has rarely used high picks though. WR we have used some picks for the 2nd round, and Branch was great.

    i have definitely thought that our strenghts lie in drafting Lineman
     
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Taking a Day One WR is better done from a program that teaches a pro-style offense where the WR and QB need to read defenses. BB has tried to take speedy kids at WR and turn them into pros, when he takes possession kids he's had better luck - they have had to work to be successful in college and don't have to develop good work habits as Pros.

    Position Year Round Name
    RB 2006 1 Laurence Maroney - despite the crowds with tar and feathers, my jury is still out.
    RB 2000 3 J.R. Redmond - he had a decent career.
    RB 2004 4 Cedric Cobbs - bust, but it is Day Two.
    RB 2007 6 Justise Hairston - experimental pick in a weak draft class.
    RB 2000 7 Patrick Pass - good value.
    RB 2002 7 Antwoine Womack - 7th round, low risk.
    RB 2003 7 Spencer Nead - 7th round, low risk.
    WR 2002 2 Deion Branch - excellent value.
    WR 2003 2 Bethel Johnson - fair value on STs.
    WR 2006 2 Chad Jackson - bust, though his injuries didn't help.
    WR 2004 5 P.K. Sam - bust, but not a great loss in the 5th.
    WR 2002 7 David Givens - excellent value.

    Position Year Round Name
    RB 2004 2 Corey Dillon - how many people are really happy with one good season and part of another? fair value.
    WR 2007 2 Wes Welker - excellent value.
    WR 2007 4 Randy Moss - excellent value.
    WR 2006 5 Doug Gabriel - bust, no telling if he had anything before Oakland ruined him.
     
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    Fixed your post for you. ;) :D
     
  5. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Just a correction, Spencer Nead was a TE, not a WR.
     
  6. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Was a TE -- no?
     
  7. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Yeah-- he was listed as a FB for draft purposes which is how he ended up on my list, but I probably should have dropped him.
     
  8. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    What site are you using for your information? NFLDraftScout.com and Drafthistory.com both list Nead as a TE, not a FB.
     
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Clearly I'm using BoneheadDraftInfo.com. Maybe I should find other sources?

    On the upside, it warms the heart being in a place where everybody instantly spots an error about Spencer Nead, of all people.
     
  10. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I wasn't implying that you were dumb at all, Patchick.

    And, People picking out Spencer Nead being a TE goes to the quality of posters you are dealing with... And its not like anyone called you an idiot or dumbarse or anything like that. In fact, you seem to have gotten off pretty lightly, all things considered ;)
     
  11. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Absolutely...which is why I took the corrective step of calling myself a bonehead. :)

    But about those RBs and WRs, my $.02:

    I'm sticking to my creed of "no WRs in the 1st or 2nd." They're just too hard to judge based on college performance, and I think the record shows the Pats haven't been any better at picking them than anybody else.

    As for RBs, yes, Maroney has been injured. But that's the nature of the position -- RBs take a pounding and they get hurt, constantly. (Q: Why is LaDanian Tomlinson considered the premier back of his generation? A: Because he was the only one to stay healthy for a long stretch of time. When he gets banged up, he's just another guy.) I think RB is simply too fragile a position to commit a precious 1st-round pick and 5-year contract to. I'd rather load up on the likes of Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordan at RB and fill my lines with 1st-round bodies.
     
  12. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I would agree to no WRs in round one -- ever. Round two -- I'd re-visit.

    The Pats have proven they can win with the 'players who fit' philosophy, which is why non-first-rounders can play for this team. But if there were a special RB who met the high character/team first qualifications, I'd give him the contract.

    As a general guideline for myself, large bodies above all other positions in round one. All else can be found later. But we must allow for special exceptions (Mayo,etc.)
     
  13. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A valid argument, but then again, those guys don't come much cheaper than Maroney and both have spent about the same amount of time in body and fender services. For the 2009 roster, Jorden should be made a vet minimum offer sweetened with incentives, if he's not interested, BJeepers can carry his load and SP can sift through the UDFAs for more camp fodder.

    WR is another story. Moss has two years left and is going to start aging soon enough, the liklihood that BB can "rescue" another top tier WR in time to replace Randy is slim, which leaves the draft, crap shoot or not. In terms of team building and picks, this promises to be a unique draft. Team needs...
    ...need some clarification.

    You ranked your scores, then added notes identifying how various multiples are going to affect the final ranking. So, let's eliminate P, FB, and LS simply because they either already have reserve roster slots (P, LS) or can be filled as secondary assignment slots (FB, LS). Not the ideal, but a necessary part of prioritization. CB and RB also get triaged out at this point.

    That leaves S, rNT, TE, OT, OLB, ILB, OG, and DE. Rather than select a "greatest" need here, let's first look at difficulty - who is the hardest to find?

    NT, DE, TE, OLB, probably in that order. S and OG are "easy" to find because you can use other positions (for S: CB, OLB, QB, WR, RB - for OG: OT, OC, DL, TE) to fill them. ILB has a median difficulty, the body types are out there, but the brains and techniques are a greater challenge.

    Now we triage again:

    TE has three players on roster and made this list because of future need (2010) and lowered productivity this season. Yet this club went 11-5 with that lowered productivity, part of which can be linked to a new QB. Score TE a lower priority.

    NT is the key to a 3-4 and the Pats have a Pro-Bowl NT for 2009. The "need" is to find a rNT given Wright's UFA status. As hard as it is to pick a good WR or RB, the troubles of other clubs around the league show how hard it is to find a NT candidate, let alone find a good one. Score this a priority target.

    DE is a futures need, but one that impacts this offseason due to development time. 3-4 defensive ends are only slightly harder to find than NTs. Score this a priority target.

    OLB is a similar to ILB, the body types are out there, but the complete range of skills in one body are rare. The good news is the Pats already have 5 young players in the pipeline, the uncertainty is how well any are developing, but it's not a gloomy picture to date. Score this a lower priority.

    ILB has an opening, and the median degree of difficulty. Score this a priority.

    S has multiple openings, but is easier to find. Score this a "quantity" priority vice a "quality" priority like NT or DE.

    OT is a future need, and one where good Tackles are a challenge to find, though not that great a challenge. Score this another "quantity" priority, partially because it can also be used to address that OG thing. Tackle is also position that doesn't require the same development time as say a DE.

    OG is scored a lower priority.

    Priority targets: rNT, DE, ILB
    Quantity targets: S, OT/OG
    Lower priority: All the rest. This is where the upgrades rank.

    Back to WR: It's not a need in 2009, but it is a future need, as much for the development time as for any openings. Like any other position, taking one on Day One tends to have greater success - even for BB (Branch). As a future need with a longer development time, it rates a priority. Which brings us to your frustration with drafting a WR; my answer is borrowed from my Pastor - fear is not from God. Mike Shanahan openly told people that he was afraid to draft DL because he couldn't get it right. He chose to cower in his bunker and buy used DL. I'm sure you see where this is headed. Failure is guaranteed if you don't try, it may be frustrating to see the castoff WRs of past drafts, but not trying is not an option. We can differ on the immediacy of the "need," 09 or 10, but the "need" exists and I personally rate it a 2009 draft priority.

    Day One: rNT, DE, ILB, WR, Best Patriot Value with whichever is the best value being the choice.
    Day Two: S, OT/OG, BPV.
    - all subject to change during Free Agency if not sooner.

    With 4 Top 100 picks, a probable 5th, and a potential Cassel trade in the wings, this is looking to be a "fat wallet" draft for NE. I like the depth for OT/OG, S, ILB, and OLB. NT and DE truly are as scarce as hen's teeth. CB isn't clear yet, but it's leaning towards okay. P, LS, FB, RB look good. WR is starting to look promising with the underclassmen leaning towards declaring (which is another reason to buy now, the potentially great ones are leaving earlier). QB is teh suck!

    Here endeth the epistle of Box.
     
  14. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Good stuff, Box. There's no question that the truly elite WRs often go early. I guess the way I'd put it is that the benefits of using a "premium pick" seem much higher for other positions.

    If you split the difference between my 1st- and 2nd-round prohibitions and call a premium pick the top 1 1/2 rounds, then the Pats have drafted 14 of them under BB. 6 were linemen, and 4 of those six were absolute home-run choices: Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Mankins (and Matt Light at #48 is surely a triple). Of the 8 non-linemen, only Mayo looks like a home run (maybe you could argue a triple for Graham, and a TBD on Meriweather). Based on that history, the expected return on your investment is a lot higher drafting big bodies early.

    I'd also toss out there that the one star WR the Patriots drafted, Deion Branch, was taken with the 65 pick -- in a normal year, the 3rd round. So with NT, DE, OT & OG all high on your priority list, all else being equal I'd lean that way first and take a flier on a couple of WRs starting at the Branch Memorial Pick #65.
     
  15. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    I have had the opportunity to do 12 games this year mostly in the SEC and I have watched a bunch of bowl games, and the single most impressive, well rounded and "sudden" athlete that I have seen is RB Moreno of Georgia.

    I am not advocating that BB draft this kid in the first round, but what a weapon he could be in our offense.

    I am still hoping that Maroney coms back strong next season with fully healed shoulders, but if the coaches determine there is permanent damage there, I would love to see Moreno playing for us next season.
     
  16. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Well now, Branch was the 8th WR taken in round two and the 11th WR overall. Chances are that BB may have had his eyes on other WRs (in addition to Branch). Post draft, a Dallas beat writer revealed the reason Dallas traded up for their WR -- to leapfrog the Pats who had their eye on the same receiver not named Branch.
     
  17. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    True 'nuff. But doesn't that actually support the idea that WRs are a crapshoot? After all, 3 of the 8 WRs taken above Branch in that round have already cycled through the Pats after being jettisoned by their original teams (Gaffney, Davis & Caldwell).
     
  18. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Bethel and Jackson solidify your stance. But because all players are individuals, re-visiting the well in round two may occur once again. Round one however is an area I'd prefer to reserve for other positions, while keeping the door open for special players, regardless of position (as mentioned earlier). Speaking of special prospects, remember when BB wanted to draft WR Mark Clayton in round one? Tried to get into the Raven's slot -- but they ended up drafting him! There's the kind of prospect that appeals to BB. A highly productive career followed by an impressive Senior Bowl week of practices. He was a low risk player who fit at a position of need.
     
  19. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As of today we have the pick at #24, NT, DE, and ILB would stand out as higher needs ahead of any WR...but if there was a WR who scored higher than the available big bodies, I'd say trust your system and pull the trigger. I just hope the Pats have had a chance to review and revise their reporting guidelines for WR to account for the issues with Jackson and Johnson. If at first you don't succeed, get a bigger hammer.
     
  20. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    So if BB prefers that type of player, why did he draft Bethel who was neither of those things in college?
     
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