I'd rather load up on the likes of Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordan at RB and fill my lines with 1st-round bodies.
A valid argument, but then again, those guys don't come much cheaper than Maroney and both have spent about the same amount of time in body and fender services. For the 2009 roster, Jorden should be made a vet minimum offer sweetened with incentives, if he's not interested, BJeepers can carry his load and SP can sift through the UDFAs for more camp fodder.
WR is another story. Moss has two years left and is going to start aging soon enough, the liklihood that BB can "rescue" another top tier WR in time to replace Randy is slim, which leaves the draft, crap shoot or not. In terms of team building and picks, this promises to be a unique draft. Team needs...
1. Strong Safety
2. Backup Nose Tackle
3. Punter
4. Fullback
5. Tight End A
6. Long Snapper
7. Swing Tackle
8. Rush OLB
9. 3rd ILB
Notes:
* Some of those positions had a second similar position that also scored in double digits: OT, TE, NT, and S. So those four position areas look to me like the primary, concentrated need areas.
* OG and DE are notable for having multiple gaps to plan for in 2010.
* CB & RB are notable for having multiple filled but "upgradable" slots for 2009.
...need some clarification.
You ranked your scores, then added notes identifying how various multiples are going to affect the final ranking. So, let's eliminate P, FB, and LS simply because they either already have reserve roster slots (P, LS) or can be filled as secondary assignment slots (FB, LS). Not the ideal, but a necessary part of prioritization. CB and RB also get triaged out at this point.
That leaves S, rNT, TE, OT, OLB, ILB, OG, and DE. Rather than select a "greatest" need here, let's first look at difficulty - who is the hardest to find?
NT, DE, TE, OLB, probably in that order. S and OG are "easy" to find because you can use other positions (for S: CB, OLB, QB, WR, RB - for OG: OT, OC, DL, TE) to fill them. ILB has a median difficulty, the body types are out there, but the brains and techniques are a greater challenge.
Now we triage again:
TE has three players on roster and made this list because of future need (2010) and lowered productivity this season. Yet this club went 11-5 with that lowered productivity, part of which can be linked to a new QB. Score TE a lower priority.
NT is the key to a 3-4 and the Pats have a Pro-Bowl NT for 2009. The "need" is to find a rNT given Wright's UFA status. As hard as it is to pick a good WR or RB, the troubles of other clubs around the league show how hard it is to find a NT candidate, let alone find a good one. Score this a priority target.
DE is a futures need, but one that impacts this offseason due to development time. 3-4 defensive ends are only slightly harder to find than NTs. Score this a priority target.
OLB is a similar to ILB, the body types are out there, but the complete range of skills in one body are rare. The good news is the Pats already have 5 young players in the pipeline, the uncertainty is how well any are developing, but it's not a gloomy picture to date. Score this a lower priority.
ILB has an opening, and the median degree of difficulty. Score this a priority.
S has multiple openings, but is easier to find. Score this a "quantity" priority vice a "quality" priority like NT or DE.
OT is a future need, and one where good Tackles are a challenge to find, though not that great a challenge. Score this another "quantity" priority, partially because it can also be used to address that OG thing. Tackle is also position that doesn't require the same development time as say a DE.
OG is scored a lower priority.
Priority targets: rNT, DE, ILB
Quantity targets: S, OT/OG
Lower priority: All the rest. This is where the upgrades rank.
Back to WR: It's not a need in 2009, but it is a future need, as much for the development time as for any openings. Like any other position, taking one on Day One tends to have greater success - even for BB (Branch). As a future need with a longer development time, it rates a priority. Which brings us to your frustration with drafting a WR; my answer is borrowed from my Pastor - fear is not from God. Mike Shanahan openly told people that he was afraid to draft DL because he couldn't get it right. He chose to cower in his bunker and buy used DL. I'm sure you see where this is headed. Failure is guaranteed if you don't try, it may be frustrating to see the castoff WRs of past drafts, but not trying is not an option. We can differ on the immediacy of the "need," 09 or 10, but the "need" exists and I personally rate it a 2009 draft priority.
Day One: rNT, DE, ILB, WR, Best Patriot Value with whichever is the best value being the choice.
Day Two: S, OT/OG, BPV.
- all subject to change during Free Agency if not sooner.
With 4 Top 100 picks, a probable 5th, and a potential Cassel trade in the wings, this is looking to be a "fat wallet" draft for NE. I like the depth for OT/OG, S, ILB, and OLB. NT and DE truly are as scarce as hen's teeth. CB isn't clear yet, but it's leaning towards okay. P, LS, FB, RB look good. WR is starting to look promising with the underclassmen leaning towards declaring (which is another reason to buy now, the potentially great ones are leaving earlier). QB is teh suck!
Here endeth the epistle of Box.
