Patriots Vegas Odds

[supafly]

Really suprised at the pitt line...after last years game and the history of success Brady has against that team.

I honestly believe Pitt dodged a bullet when they got the Jets instead of NE.

Oh, that's an understatement and a half--especially considering that ALL of the recent Steeler SB's have been when New England was already eliminated. They always seem to luck out when the Pats are taken out of the tourney.

05--NE loss to DEN, PIT goes on to win SB (and were lucky to do it)
08--NE 11-5 misses playoffs, PIT goes on to win SB (on a last possession drive)
10--NE loss to NYJ, PIT goes on to the SB

I live here in Pittsburgh, and you'd have thought that they had already won the SB when the Jets beat us. Every single person, fan, newschannel etc, went on and on about how they would roll over the Jets, and beat GB. The NYJ victory over us was almost as good to those people as a SB win.

 

[HomerSchooled]

I don't think Philly has the mental toughness and character as a team to maintain last year's success. That's a team I'd short this year in general.

Not a betting man, but I totally agree. By the end of the season, teams had begun to figure Vick out. I think their QB play will go from great to mediocre this season. Maybe with some additions, their D will be able to make up for that, but with their current roster, I see a step back coming.

 

[Wolfpack]

It's worth it!

I won £2.40ish on the thanksgiving game! I put £1 on beating the spread and Brady throwing over 250 yards

First bet I ever won! I was so happy

And thus begins another gambling addiction.

Welcome to the club! :rocker:

 

[Wolfpack]

Can't see the Pats being a 7 point favorite over the Cowboys and a bigger 8 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs?

Didn't KC win thier division last year and Dallas missed the playoffs altogether?

Did Dallas do something since February to make thier team better than KC that I am not aware of?

No, they did something in November to make their team better: They fired their abysmal coach, Wade Philips, to finish the season a very respectable 5-3, which is certainly comparable to KC's 10-6.

 

[serifyn]

interesting lines, the home team is almost always favored, especially for good teams, it isnt surprising to see the patriots as underdogs against philly and pittsburgh, although the patriots tend to do very well against the steelers, id be more worried about the eagles since they can get into a shootout with the patriots like few teams can.

 

[supafly]

interesting lines, the home team is almost always favored, especially for good teams, it isnt surprising to see the patriots as underdogs against philly and pittsburgh, although the patriots tend to do very well against the steelers, id be more worried about the eagles since they can get into a shootout with the patriots like few teams can.

From a law of averages perspective, their embarrassment of constantly losing to us at home, the big game implications, the rivalry that has gotten decently intense since the AFCCG's in 01 and 04, and the fact that they are always a tough opponent and defense--I would be just as concerned about Pittsburgh too.

I am sure that you will agree with coach Belichick that whatever has happened in the past is not indicative of our current situation now.

Eventually I think they'll smarten up and change their defensive gameplanning too.

I am not as worried about Philly to be honest. It will be all about containing Vick, which we seen to do a decent job of.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

5 point favorites against Indy is a little surprising, damn.

Although Vegas reflects what the betting public thinks, what the betting public thinks is a combination of how much the home fanbase likes gambling, how large or small a fanbase is, and how much those who bet a given game are betting without regard to their own fan loyalty (i.e., none).

So to the extent that the Indy/NE game reflects homers betting their hearts, you have to figure that the big market/small market difference is going to pad the Pats' spread.

Being a homer, though, I of course could never bet against the Pats, even if it seems that the reason for that spread is well explained by my very behavior. I also don't bet the games, but that's beside the point LOL.

 

[supafly]

Although Vegas reflects what the betting public thinks, what the betting public thinks is a combination of how much the home fanbase likes gambling, how large or small a fanbase is, and how much those who bet a given game are betting without regard to their own fan loyalty (i.e., none).

So to the extent that the Indy/NE game reflects homers betting their hearts, you have to figure that the big market/small market difference is going to pad the Pats' spread.

Being a homer, though, I of course could never bet against the Pats, even if it seems that the reason for that spread is well explained by my very behavior. I also don't bet the games, but that's beside the point LOL.

Betting against the Pats is damn hard, I must admit. I was always taught to bet with your head and not with your heart, so there are a handful of times where the spread factor calls for taking the other team. You end up trying to win the bet + see a Pats victory at the same time, basically you're trying to get the best of both worlds.

I recently did it in last yr's Indy game, where the spread was almost the same as it is this yr (at least so far in regards to the early 'futures' bets). It was about 4 to 4 1/2, so to me that was a little much, particularly when you think about all of the closer games we have vs. Indy.

On one hand I was very glad that Indy came back to narrow the score, which at one time was 31-14, they cut it to 31-28 late in the game. I already had the game 'won' with the +4 1/2 pts and Indy---but boy, was I happy when J.Sanders intercepted that Manning pass to end the game. A rare 'best of both worlds' victory.

Considering the spread was around the same last yr (between 4 and 5), I am not surprised in the slightest that it is approx. 5 right now. By game time, one way or another, and regardless of records (for the most part), the spread will be within 3 or 4 at the most.